Orange Tempest
- Thread starter Alternate History Geek
- Start date
I stand by my previous post: Bermuda should re renamed 'Atlantis'
Welp, I live on the Cape, but I guess I'd be lucky because I was just starting my freshman year at college in northern Vermont. Thought Vermont was pretty badly ravaged by Irene in 2011 (so badly they delayed move in for sophomore year) that I might not be any safer at school than I would be at home.
And if you go into the midterms it'll be very interesting. Vermont was in the middle of a very close Governor's race to replace outgoing Jim Douglas, who now has to deal with Irene a year early.
Excerpt from Barack Obama address, held at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, September 20, 2010:
"...Everyone is aware at this point that this will be a big and powerful storm. If you are living on or near the shores of the states of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine, I urge you, in the strongest possible terms, to leave now, if you haven't already done so. If you live on Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, or Cape Cod, get out now, and remember what happened in Bermuda. You are putting your lives in danger. Listen to your state and local officials..."
"...Everyone is aware at this point that this will be a big and powerful storm. If you are living on or near the shores of the states of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine, I urge you, in the strongest possible terms, to leave now, if you haven't already done so. If you live on Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, or Cape Cod, get out now, and remember what happened in Bermuda. You are putting your lives in danger. Listen to your state and local officials..."
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You're very welcome!
--------------------
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 21 September 2010:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 21 2010
...WEAKENING THOUGH STILL POWERFUL IGOR MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE BAY OF FUNDY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 66.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF GRAND MANAN ISLAND NEW BRUNSWICK
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF BRIER ISLAND NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH TO BONAVISTA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
MÉTÉO-FRANCE HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE FROM NOYES POINT EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LABRADOR FROM THE BORDER WITH QUEBEC NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO THE ISLAND OF PONDS...TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTS OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY FROM CHINCOTEAGUE ISLAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CAPE MAY...FOR THE LAKE ERIE COAST OF NEW YORK FROM DUNKIRK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND FOR THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO COAST OF NEW YORK FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER AT THE NIAGARA RIVER EASTWARD TO OSWEGO.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE ERIE COAST OF ONTARIO FROM PORT MAITLAND EASTWARD TO THE UNITED STATES BORDER...AND FOR THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO COAST OF ONTARIO FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER AT THE NIAGARA RIVER WESTWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...AND EASTWARD TO POINT PETRE.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORTLAND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
* THE ENTIRE SOUTH COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...INCLUDING CAMPOBELLO ISLAND...DEER ISLAND...AND GRAND MANAN ISLAND.
* THE EAST COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE BORDER WITH NOVA SCOTIA NORTHWARDS TO MIRAMICHI BAY.
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SABLE ISLAND.
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.
* THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST GEORGES BAY TO BONAVISTA.
* THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE FROM CAPE MAY NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTLAND...INCLUDING STATEN ISLAND...MANHATTAN ISLAND...LONG ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...THE ELIZABETH ISLANDS...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.
* THE COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK...QUEBEC...AND LABRADOR FROM MIRAMICHI BAY NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...EASTWARD...AND NORTHWARD TO THE ISLAND OF PONDS.
* THE ILE D'ANTICOSTI.
* THE NORTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST GEORGES BAY NORTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO BONAVISTA.
* THE LAKE ONTARIO COASTS OF NEW YORK AND ONTARIO FROM POINT PETRE EASTWARD...SOUTHWARD...AND WESTWARD TO OSWEGO.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE NECK OF NOVA SCOTIA...PASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...CROSS CAPE BRETON ISLAND...PASS DIRECTLY OR ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON...AND CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...200 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IGOR PASSES OVER ATLANTIC CANADA...AND IGOR IS LIKELY TO BECOME A VERY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 580 MILES...935 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 120 MPH...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 150 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 36 INCHES OVER PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 45 TO 53 INCHES POSSIBLE. 10 TO 15 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...BRINGING RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEW ENGLAND TO BETWEEN 52 AND 64 INCHES OF RAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO BETWEEN 32 AND 57 INCHES...AND RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WASHINGTON DC...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO BETWEEN 15 AND 32 INCHES. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR IN BERMUDA HAS ENDED.
STORM SURGE...A VERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE TO EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING IN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON...AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...WITH EXTREMELY HIGH WAVES ALONG THE BAY OF FUNDY. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND EXCLUDING MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...AND WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE GASPÉ PENINSULA...THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ILE D'ANTICOSTI...AND NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE IN MAINLAND QUEBEC EAST OF SEPT-ÎLES AND IN SOUTHERN LABRADOR.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE COASTLINES OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...AND BERMUDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS DURING WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SWELLS SHOULD ALSO START TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTHERN LABRADOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF BAFFIN ISLAND AT THAT TIME. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
NNNN
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 22 September 2010:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
...IGOR WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...RACES PAST SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 54.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BURIN NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF ARNOLDS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...47 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST GEORGES BAY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO HARBOUR BRETON TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PENOBSCOT BAY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF QUEBEC ALONG THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE RIVER WESTWARD OF MAGPIE AND CAP-CHAT.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM HARBOUR BRETON EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO BONAVISTA.
* THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.
* THE COAST OF QUEBEC FROM THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND WESTWARD TO CAP-CHAT.
* THE COASTS OF QUEBEC AND LABRADOR FROM MAGPIE EASTWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...NORTHWARD...NORTHWESTWARD...AND WESTWARD TO GOOSE BAY.
* THE ILE D'ANTICOSTI.
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...EXCLUDING THAT PORTION OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS FROM HARBOUR BRETON EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO BONAVISTA.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 29 MPH...47 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A POSSIBLE FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS IGOR PASSES OUT TO SEA...AND IGOR IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 95 MPH...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 115 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...8 TO 10 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA...EASTERN QUEBEC...AND MAINE...BRINGING RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ATLANTIC CANADA TO BETWEEN 40 AND 53 INCHES OF RAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR EASTERN QUEBEC TO UP TO 41 INCHES OF RAIN...AND RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MAINE TO BETWEEN 52 AND 60 INCHES OF RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...EXCEPT FOR MAINE...HAS ENDED.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING IN SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A SEVERE STORM SURGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN ATLANTIC CANADA...THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...THE ILE D'ANTICOSTI...MAINLAND EASTERN QUEBEC...NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...AND SOUTHERN LABRADOR THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY IN NEW ENGLAND...NOVA SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...ALL OF QUEBEC...THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SWELLS MAY ALSO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF BAFFIN ISLAND ON THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
...IGOR WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...RACES PAST SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 54.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BURIN NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF ARNOLDS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...47 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST GEORGES BAY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO HARBOUR BRETON TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PENOBSCOT BAY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF QUEBEC ALONG THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE RIVER WESTWARD OF MAGPIE AND CAP-CHAT.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM HARBOUR BRETON EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO BONAVISTA.
* THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.
* THE COAST OF QUEBEC FROM THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND WESTWARD TO CAP-CHAT.
* THE COASTS OF QUEBEC AND LABRADOR FROM MAGPIE EASTWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...NORTHWARD...NORTHWESTWARD...AND WESTWARD TO GOOSE BAY.
* THE ILE D'ANTICOSTI.
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...EXCLUDING THAT PORTION OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS FROM HARBOUR BRETON EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO BONAVISTA.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 29 MPH...47 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A POSSIBLE FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS IGOR PASSES OUT TO SEA...AND IGOR IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 95 MPH...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 115 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...8 TO 10 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA...EASTERN QUEBEC...AND MAINE...BRINGING RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ATLANTIC CANADA TO BETWEEN 40 AND 53 INCHES OF RAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR EASTERN QUEBEC TO UP TO 41 INCHES OF RAIN...AND RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MAINE TO BETWEEN 52 AND 60 INCHES OF RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...EXCEPT FOR MAINE...HAS ENDED.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING IN SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A SEVERE STORM SURGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN ATLANTIC CANADA...THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...THE ILE D'ANTICOSTI...MAINLAND EASTERN QUEBEC...NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...AND SOUTHERN LABRADOR THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY IN NEW ENGLAND...NOVA SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...ALL OF QUEBEC...THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SWELLS MAY ALSO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF BAFFIN ISLAND ON THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
NNNN
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Yes, I'm planning some prose updates.
But the main reason Igor's been fading is that it was mostly over land. What with moving out into the open Atlantic and over the warm North Atlantic Drift, Igor's got quite a bit of life left in it yet...
Updatey!
Sorry about the wall of text. And Igor is still an annular hurricane.
--------------------
From Thousand Year Storm: Hurricane Igor and its Aftermath, by Meryl Fitzgavin:
...The worst damage, of course, was on Bermuda, where the storm had been stronger and moving slower than at any of its other landfalls. Nearly every building on the islands was destroyed, and several of the smaller islands were completely wiped off the map, including, perhaps most sadly, Nonsuch Island, where, despite the precautions taken to protect the species after 2003's Hurricane Fabian, every single nest of the critically-endangered Bermuda petrel on the island chain was destroyed, dealing the already-rare species a crippling blow and playing an important role in the decision the following year to take several of the remaining pairs coming back to the devastated island cluster into captivity to ensure the safety of the chicks...
...Igor's sudden turn to the northwest and sudden, massive acceleration towards New England, defying the best and the brightest of the National Hurricane Centre, was extensively studied to allow the humiliated forecasters to improve in future upon their abysmal performance in the face of Igor. In retrospect, the high-pressure system that had forced Igor to the west was easy to see, and in fact was taken into consideration when deliberating upon the likely path that Igor would take after moving to the north of Bermuda; the forecasters' fatal mistake, however, was to assume that Igor would hit the southeast side of the high-pressure area, and be forced east, whereas Igor actually came in far enough west to hit just above the system's southernmost point on its southwest side, and was consequently forced directly towards the New England coastline at a very high rate of speed...
...The revelation that Igor's turn west instead of east was precipitated by only a minute change in its prior track led to a major overhaul of operations in the NHC, and also led to the demise of the influential 1-2-3 forecast cone...
...Half the NHC must have been called to testify before Congress, withering under the harsh questions and criticism leveled against them by nearly every Representative or Senator hailing from east of the Mississippi, but especially those from the states hardest hit by Igor: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York, and Maine...
...Even as Igor raced across the North Atlantic, its work not yet done, FEMA convoys were already racing towards the hardest-hit areas, aided by President Obama's declaration of a state of emergency for all of New England, the mid-Atlantic states, and northern Virginia...
...The massive, 45-foot storm surge washed completely over every single island off southeastern Massachusetts, with the exception of 300-plus-foot Martha's Vineyard, virtually wiping out every settlement on the islands except for those high up on Martha's Vineyard, which were in turn devastated by the massive winds; many of the settlements, such as Siasconset on the southeast coast of Nantucket, were never rebuilt, their former sites now lying under 20 or more feet of seawater and their former ground dispersed among the many new sandbanks formed by Igor in and around Nantucket Sound. One of Igor's few positive results, though, was that essentially all of the unexploded ordnance strewn about Nomans Land, a former bombing range, was washed into the sea, thus making the island safe to visit once again...
...Due to the utter devastation of Boston and heavy damage to Worcester, the state government of Massachusetts, along with several of the local and county governments of eastern Massachusetts, set up shop in Pittsfield for the time being, it being the largest city in the Commonwealth to still have any electrical power, while the remainder of the extirpated city and county governments scattered themselves throughout western Massachusetts along with scores of refugees; Rhode Island's state government, having no such city available to them in the Union's smallest state, was forced beyond the state's borders, taking refuge in Pittsfield as well so as to better coordinate relief efforts with those of their larger neighbor...
...Among the Massachusite dead was Massachusetts Representative Sarah Peake (D-Provincetown), one of only five openly LGBT members of the Massachusetts General Court, who was caught in a traffic jam along US 6 while attempting to evacuate and whose car was washed into Cape Cod Bay by Igor's storm surge while she was still inside it; her body was never recovered...
...Provincetown itself was one of the New England settlements worst-hit by Igor, which made its fourth landfall on Long Point at the southern end of town and tracked directly across the tip of Cape Cod, still as a low-end Category 5 hurricane, wiping the town clean off the map and destroying the dike that had previously connected it to the rest of Massachusetts, shortening Cape Cod by seven miles and giving birth to Provincetown Island; over seven thousand Provincetowners were killed, many of them, like Representative Peake, caught in the bottleneck of US 6 while trying to evacuate and washed into the sea by the massive winds and storm surge, and the town was never rebuilt, the thousands of LGBT tourists who used to come there in the summer scattering all about the East Coast, and many finding their way elsewhere, to the Great Lakes, the Gulf, or even the Pacific, with San Francisco's LGBT community seeing a sudden influx of new faces...
...The most disastrous effect of Igor on southeastern Massachusetts was the destruction of Pilgrim Nuclear Generating Station in Plymouth, the containment building of which was ruptured, and the drywell, the wetwell, and the spent-fuel pool cracked by the massive storm surge, and which lost all power due to the destruction of the backup generators, their fuel tanks, and their wiring by the storm surge, torrential rainfall, and tremendous winds, causing the coolant pumps to fail and draining the water from the reactor core, leading to a near-total meltdown and causing the reaction rate to race out of control, with the end result being that, when the molten fuel, parts of it about to reach prompt criticality, burned through the reactor vessel, it came into contact with both the water drained from the wetwell and spent-fuel pool and with the water pouring in through the breaches in both the aboveground and underground portions of the containment building, which combined with the achievement of prompt criticality by parts of the molten fuel mass to result in several massive explosions which blasted open the rest of the containment building and spread huge amounts of radioactive contamination, from not only the reactor's core material, but also the rods from the spent-fuel pool, from material that was installed near or inside the reactor core and was gradually rendered radioactive by years of neutron activation, and from material activated by neutrons produced as the reaction rate skyrocketed during the meltdown, far and wide over eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and parts of Rhode Island, as well as out over the open Atlantic, a catastrophe which would become only the second-ever nuclear disaster to be given a rating of 7 (Major Accident), the highest rating possible, on the International Nuclear Event Scale, after only the infamous Chernobyl disaster of 1986, and which would force the permanent cordoning-off of large parts of Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard (the other Islands being washed virtually clean of fallout by Igor's torrential rain and storm surge), also resulting in large areas being barred to fishing due to the fish there being too radioactive to safely eat...
...U.S. Senator Scott Brown, first Republican in years to fill the seat that had until recently been filled by the long-running Ted Kennedy (who had finally succumbed to the brain tumour that had been plaguing him for a considerable amount of time previously), was also killed, though his death, unlike that of State Representative Peake, was indirect, being the result of a driver, pressing on in spite of the pouring rain and horrid visibility, hydroplaning, sliding onto the sidewalk, and hitting the Senator at 40 mph. Unsurprisingly, Democrat Martha Coakley won the seat easily when the second special election for the same seat within a year, postponed due to the massive damage across the eastern third of the state, finally took place that December, but when the polls closed, recognizing the circumstances leading to her becoming Senator, her speech, instead of being the typical victory speech, took the form of a moving memorial speech for Brown...
...One of the most heartwarming stories of generosity and camaraderie in the aftermath of Igor was the evacuation of Sandwich; despite the town being almost entirely destroyed as Igor passed less than twenty miles to the east, and then rendered uninhabitable by the Pilgrim Plymouth nuclear disaster, only fifteen of the town's 20,675 residents were killed, and the majority of Sandwich's former population managed to stick together as they made their way west, out of harm's way; they eventually found themselves in the small city of North Adams, in the far northern Berkshires, the residents of which opened their hearts and doors as one to the lost Sandwichers, despite being outnumbered considerably by the refugees, and as a result, despite being given the option of splitting off to form a city of New Sandwich, the Sandwichers, as one, declined, preferring to stay in the company of the generous and kindhearted people of North Adams; as a result, when the state government attached the evacuated towns and cities of Cape Cod to other, still-populated cities in the rest of the Commonwealth, North Adams was chosen to administer the former site of Sandwich, and, to this day, a memorial to the people of Sandwich and their trek the whole length of the state to salvation in the form of North Adams occupies a prominent position in the latter city's downtown...
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 23 September 2010:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010
...IGOR STILL REFUSES TO WEAKEN OR BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...RACES TOWARD THE BRITISH ISLES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.8N 28.0W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF ACHILL HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
MET ÉIREANN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DONEGAL...LEITRIM...SLIGO...MAYO...AND GALWAY FROM GALWAY BAY NORTHWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER...AND FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DUBLIN...MEATH...AND LOUTH FROM PORTMARNOCK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER...AND ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND...FOR THE WEST COASTS OF CUMBRIA COUNTY...DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM BEES HEAD NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO OBAN...FOR THE ISLE OF MAN...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARRAN...BUTE...ISLAY...JURA...COLONSAY...MULL...AND TIREE...AND ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
MET ÉIREANN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND.
THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND...FOR THE COASTS OF GWYNEDD COUNTY...CLWYD COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY...MERSEYSIDE COUNTY...LANCASHIRE COUNTY...AND CUMBRIA COUNTY FROM BRAICH-Y-PWLL NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO ST BEES HEAD...FOR THE COASTS OF CLEVELAND COUNTY...DURHAM COUNTY...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...BORDERS REGION...LOTHIAN REGION...CENTRAL REGION...FIFE REGION...TAYSIDE REGION...GRAMPIAN REGION...HIGHLAND REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM REDCAR NORTHWEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH TO OBAN...FOR THE WESTERN ISLES AND ORKNEY ISLANDS...FOR THE ISLE OF SKYE...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGLESEY...COLL...RUM...EIGG...RAASAY...AND SCALPAY...AND ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SHETLAND ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DONEGAL...LEITRIM...SLIGO...MAYO...AND GALWAY FROM GALWAY BAY NORTHWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER.
* THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DUBLIN...MEATH...AND LOUTH FROM PORTMARNOCK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER.
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND.
* THE WEST COASTS OF CUMBRIA COUNTY...DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM BEES HEAD NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO OBAN.
* THE ISLE OF MAN.
* THE ISLANDS OF ARRAN...BUTE...ISLAY...JURA...COLONSAY...MULL...AND TIREE.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* IRELAND.
* THE COASTS OF GWYNEDD COUNTY...CLWYD COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY...MERSEYSIDE COUNTY...LANCASHIRE COUNTY...AND CUMBRIA COUNTY FROM BRAICH-Y-PWLL NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO ST BEES HEAD.
* THE COASTS OF CLEVELAND COUNTY...DURHAM COUNTY...TYNE AND WEAR COUNTY...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...BORDERS REGION...LOTHIAN REGION...CENTRAL REGION...FIFE REGION...TAYSIDE REGION...GRAMPIAN REGION...HIGHLAND REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM REDCAR NORTHWEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH TO OBAN.
* THE WESTERN ISLES.
* THE ORKNEY ISLANDS.
* THE ISLE OF SKYE.
* THE ISLANDS OF ANGLESEY...COLL...RUM...EIGG...RAASAY...AND SCALPAY.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SHETLAND ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH...76 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL CROSS OVER COUNTY DONEGAL...NORTHERN IRELAND...AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE NORTH SEA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IGOR PASSES OVER THE BRITISH ISLES...AND IGOR IS LIKELY TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 575 MILES...925 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 105 MPH...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 130 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER IRELAND...SCOTLAND...AND NORTHERN ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
STORM SURGE...A VERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL PRODUCE VERY SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING IN IRELAND...WESTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHWESTERN ENGLAND...AND NORTH WALES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL PRODUCE SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING IN EASTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHEASTERN ENGLAND...AND THE ORKNEY AND SHETLAND ISLANDS ON LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COASTS OF SCOTLAND AND IRELAND...CORNWALL...BRITTANY...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND...AND THE SOUTH COAST OF ICELAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND SOUTHERN LABRADOR ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SWELLS MAY ALSO REACH GALICIA AND ASTURIAS ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
Sorry about the wall of text. And Igor is still an annular hurricane.
--------------------
From Thousand Year Storm: Hurricane Igor and its Aftermath, by Meryl Fitzgavin:
...The worst damage, of course, was on Bermuda, where the storm had been stronger and moving slower than at any of its other landfalls. Nearly every building on the islands was destroyed, and several of the smaller islands were completely wiped off the map, including, perhaps most sadly, Nonsuch Island, where, despite the precautions taken to protect the species after 2003's Hurricane Fabian, every single nest of the critically-endangered Bermuda petrel on the island chain was destroyed, dealing the already-rare species a crippling blow and playing an important role in the decision the following year to take several of the remaining pairs coming back to the devastated island cluster into captivity to ensure the safety of the chicks...
...Igor's sudden turn to the northwest and sudden, massive acceleration towards New England, defying the best and the brightest of the National Hurricane Centre, was extensively studied to allow the humiliated forecasters to improve in future upon their abysmal performance in the face of Igor. In retrospect, the high-pressure system that had forced Igor to the west was easy to see, and in fact was taken into consideration when deliberating upon the likely path that Igor would take after moving to the north of Bermuda; the forecasters' fatal mistake, however, was to assume that Igor would hit the southeast side of the high-pressure area, and be forced east, whereas Igor actually came in far enough west to hit just above the system's southernmost point on its southwest side, and was consequently forced directly towards the New England coastline at a very high rate of speed...
...The revelation that Igor's turn west instead of east was precipitated by only a minute change in its prior track led to a major overhaul of operations in the NHC, and also led to the demise of the influential 1-2-3 forecast cone...
...Half the NHC must have been called to testify before Congress, withering under the harsh questions and criticism leveled against them by nearly every Representative or Senator hailing from east of the Mississippi, but especially those from the states hardest hit by Igor: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York, and Maine...
...Even as Igor raced across the North Atlantic, its work not yet done, FEMA convoys were already racing towards the hardest-hit areas, aided by President Obama's declaration of a state of emergency for all of New England, the mid-Atlantic states, and northern Virginia...
...The massive, 45-foot storm surge washed completely over every single island off southeastern Massachusetts, with the exception of 300-plus-foot Martha's Vineyard, virtually wiping out every settlement on the islands except for those high up on Martha's Vineyard, which were in turn devastated by the massive winds; many of the settlements, such as Siasconset on the southeast coast of Nantucket, were never rebuilt, their former sites now lying under 20 or more feet of seawater and their former ground dispersed among the many new sandbanks formed by Igor in and around Nantucket Sound. One of Igor's few positive results, though, was that essentially all of the unexploded ordnance strewn about Nomans Land, a former bombing range, was washed into the sea, thus making the island safe to visit once again...
...Due to the utter devastation of Boston and heavy damage to Worcester, the state government of Massachusetts, along with several of the local and county governments of eastern Massachusetts, set up shop in Pittsfield for the time being, it being the largest city in the Commonwealth to still have any electrical power, while the remainder of the extirpated city and county governments scattered themselves throughout western Massachusetts along with scores of refugees; Rhode Island's state government, having no such city available to them in the Union's smallest state, was forced beyond the state's borders, taking refuge in Pittsfield as well so as to better coordinate relief efforts with those of their larger neighbor...
...Among the Massachusite dead was Massachusetts Representative Sarah Peake (D-Provincetown), one of only five openly LGBT members of the Massachusetts General Court, who was caught in a traffic jam along US 6 while attempting to evacuate and whose car was washed into Cape Cod Bay by Igor's storm surge while she was still inside it; her body was never recovered...
...Provincetown itself was one of the New England settlements worst-hit by Igor, which made its fourth landfall on Long Point at the southern end of town and tracked directly across the tip of Cape Cod, still as a low-end Category 5 hurricane, wiping the town clean off the map and destroying the dike that had previously connected it to the rest of Massachusetts, shortening Cape Cod by seven miles and giving birth to Provincetown Island; over seven thousand Provincetowners were killed, many of them, like Representative Peake, caught in the bottleneck of US 6 while trying to evacuate and washed into the sea by the massive winds and storm surge, and the town was never rebuilt, the thousands of LGBT tourists who used to come there in the summer scattering all about the East Coast, and many finding their way elsewhere, to the Great Lakes, the Gulf, or even the Pacific, with San Francisco's LGBT community seeing a sudden influx of new faces...
...The most disastrous effect of Igor on southeastern Massachusetts was the destruction of Pilgrim Nuclear Generating Station in Plymouth, the containment building of which was ruptured, and the drywell, the wetwell, and the spent-fuel pool cracked by the massive storm surge, and which lost all power due to the destruction of the backup generators, their fuel tanks, and their wiring by the storm surge, torrential rainfall, and tremendous winds, causing the coolant pumps to fail and draining the water from the reactor core, leading to a near-total meltdown and causing the reaction rate to race out of control, with the end result being that, when the molten fuel, parts of it about to reach prompt criticality, burned through the reactor vessel, it came into contact with both the water drained from the wetwell and spent-fuel pool and with the water pouring in through the breaches in both the aboveground and underground portions of the containment building, which combined with the achievement of prompt criticality by parts of the molten fuel mass to result in several massive explosions which blasted open the rest of the containment building and spread huge amounts of radioactive contamination, from not only the reactor's core material, but also the rods from the spent-fuel pool, from material that was installed near or inside the reactor core and was gradually rendered radioactive by years of neutron activation, and from material activated by neutrons produced as the reaction rate skyrocketed during the meltdown, far and wide over eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and parts of Rhode Island, as well as out over the open Atlantic, a catastrophe which would become only the second-ever nuclear disaster to be given a rating of 7 (Major Accident), the highest rating possible, on the International Nuclear Event Scale, after only the infamous Chernobyl disaster of 1986, and which would force the permanent cordoning-off of large parts of Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard (the other Islands being washed virtually clean of fallout by Igor's torrential rain and storm surge), also resulting in large areas being barred to fishing due to the fish there being too radioactive to safely eat...
...U.S. Senator Scott Brown, first Republican in years to fill the seat that had until recently been filled by the long-running Ted Kennedy (who had finally succumbed to the brain tumour that had been plaguing him for a considerable amount of time previously), was also killed, though his death, unlike that of State Representative Peake, was indirect, being the result of a driver, pressing on in spite of the pouring rain and horrid visibility, hydroplaning, sliding onto the sidewalk, and hitting the Senator at 40 mph. Unsurprisingly, Democrat Martha Coakley won the seat easily when the second special election for the same seat within a year, postponed due to the massive damage across the eastern third of the state, finally took place that December, but when the polls closed, recognizing the circumstances leading to her becoming Senator, her speech, instead of being the typical victory speech, took the form of a moving memorial speech for Brown...
...One of the most heartwarming stories of generosity and camaraderie in the aftermath of Igor was the evacuation of Sandwich; despite the town being almost entirely destroyed as Igor passed less than twenty miles to the east, and then rendered uninhabitable by the Pilgrim Plymouth nuclear disaster, only fifteen of the town's 20,675 residents were killed, and the majority of Sandwich's former population managed to stick together as they made their way west, out of harm's way; they eventually found themselves in the small city of North Adams, in the far northern Berkshires, the residents of which opened their hearts and doors as one to the lost Sandwichers, despite being outnumbered considerably by the refugees, and as a result, despite being given the option of splitting off to form a city of New Sandwich, the Sandwichers, as one, declined, preferring to stay in the company of the generous and kindhearted people of North Adams; as a result, when the state government attached the evacuated towns and cities of Cape Cod to other, still-populated cities in the rest of the Commonwealth, North Adams was chosen to administer the former site of Sandwich, and, to this day, a memorial to the people of Sandwich and their trek the whole length of the state to salvation in the form of North Adams occupies a prominent position in the latter city's downtown...
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 23 September 2010:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010
...IGOR STILL REFUSES TO WEAKEN OR BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...RACES TOWARD THE BRITISH ISLES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.8N 28.0W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF ACHILL HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
MET ÉIREANN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DONEGAL...LEITRIM...SLIGO...MAYO...AND GALWAY FROM GALWAY BAY NORTHWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER...AND FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DUBLIN...MEATH...AND LOUTH FROM PORTMARNOCK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER...AND ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND...FOR THE WEST COASTS OF CUMBRIA COUNTY...DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM BEES HEAD NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO OBAN...FOR THE ISLE OF MAN...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARRAN...BUTE...ISLAY...JURA...COLONSAY...MULL...AND TIREE...AND ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
MET ÉIREANN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND.
THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND...FOR THE COASTS OF GWYNEDD COUNTY...CLWYD COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY...MERSEYSIDE COUNTY...LANCASHIRE COUNTY...AND CUMBRIA COUNTY FROM BRAICH-Y-PWLL NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO ST BEES HEAD...FOR THE COASTS OF CLEVELAND COUNTY...DURHAM COUNTY...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...BORDERS REGION...LOTHIAN REGION...CENTRAL REGION...FIFE REGION...TAYSIDE REGION...GRAMPIAN REGION...HIGHLAND REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM REDCAR NORTHWEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH TO OBAN...FOR THE WESTERN ISLES AND ORKNEY ISLANDS...FOR THE ISLE OF SKYE...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGLESEY...COLL...RUM...EIGG...RAASAY...AND SCALPAY...AND ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SHETLAND ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DONEGAL...LEITRIM...SLIGO...MAYO...AND GALWAY FROM GALWAY BAY NORTHWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER.
* THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DUBLIN...MEATH...AND LOUTH FROM PORTMARNOCK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER.
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND.
* THE WEST COASTS OF CUMBRIA COUNTY...DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM BEES HEAD NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO OBAN.
* THE ISLE OF MAN.
* THE ISLANDS OF ARRAN...BUTE...ISLAY...JURA...COLONSAY...MULL...AND TIREE.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* IRELAND.
* THE COASTS OF GWYNEDD COUNTY...CLWYD COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY...MERSEYSIDE COUNTY...LANCASHIRE COUNTY...AND CUMBRIA COUNTY FROM BRAICH-Y-PWLL NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO ST BEES HEAD.
* THE COASTS OF CLEVELAND COUNTY...DURHAM COUNTY...TYNE AND WEAR COUNTY...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...BORDERS REGION...LOTHIAN REGION...CENTRAL REGION...FIFE REGION...TAYSIDE REGION...GRAMPIAN REGION...HIGHLAND REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM REDCAR NORTHWEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...NORTHEAST...WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH TO OBAN.
* THE WESTERN ISLES.
* THE ORKNEY ISLANDS.
* THE ISLE OF SKYE.
* THE ISLANDS OF ANGLESEY...COLL...RUM...EIGG...RAASAY...AND SCALPAY.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SHETLAND ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH...76 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL CROSS OVER COUNTY DONEGAL...NORTHERN IRELAND...AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE NORTH SEA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IGOR PASSES OVER THE BRITISH ISLES...AND IGOR IS LIKELY TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 575 MILES...925 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 105 MPH...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 130 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER IRELAND...SCOTLAND...AND NORTHERN ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
STORM SURGE...A VERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL PRODUCE VERY SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING IN IRELAND...WESTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHWESTERN ENGLAND...AND NORTH WALES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL PRODUCE SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING IN EASTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHEASTERN ENGLAND...AND THE ORKNEY AND SHETLAND ISLANDS ON LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COASTS OF SCOTLAND AND IRELAND...CORNWALL...BRITTANY...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND...AND THE SOUTH COAST OF ICELAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND SOUTHERN LABRADOR ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SWELLS MAY ALSO REACH GALICIA AND ASTURIAS ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
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FORECASTER PASCH
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