Northern Civil war with a twist

[Crazymachines]

Anyway, now that I think about it this could end badly for the radical republicans; They either lose the peace or are forced to get much harsher than they were OTL to secure it, or they alienate too many more moderates trying to get them to just bide their time for 4 more years when the Republicans will be in a better position to win. It just seems like an almost too convenient way for the Slave Aristocracy to benefit by watching their radical republican foes suddenly kill themselves for no reason when literally waiting a few more years puts the North on greater and greater advantages.

With all of that being said OP, I do really like your idea of people, like local US military, radicalizing and making moves on their own that cause tensions to fly out of control. That does open the door for things that would previously be unthinkable and make your scenario more likely.

Thank you for the feedback, although I'm a little confused as to how the Republicans would be "killing themselves"

Your 'egregious DC' move would have to be something by Breckenridge done towards the 12 states that is so offensive, otherwise unhappy people are stirred to war and other northern and western states support them. I'm not sure what it is, but it probably includes accusations of a coup, arresting congressmen and senators, and sending federal troops someplace in a horrifying example of federal overreach. That's a pretty high bar. Is Breckenridge the type?

I mean after what basically amounts to an attempted coup (albeit a really poorly executed one), add in a little paranoia and this doesn't sound like that improbable a reaction. Keep in mind the south was already scared shitless by John Brown, and now in the South's eyes military officers just tried to pull a harpers ferry (it's not really the same thing, but I can see southern politicians making the analogy)

 

[Moosemac]

Thank you for the feedback, although I'm a little confused as to how the Republicans would be "killing themselves"

I mean after what basically amounts to an attempted coup (albeit a really poorly executed one), add in a little paranoia and this doesn't sound like that improbable a reaction. Keep in mind the south was already scared shitless by John Brown, and now in the South's eyes military officers just tried to pull a harpers ferry (it's not really the same thing, but I can see southern politicians making the analogy)

'Killing themselves' in the sense that if they don't the get all the moderate republicans on board with this they won't have an Unified North needed to win; Granted, perhaps that issue starts to resolve itself if the now mostly Southern Union Armies start occupying areas north (I think there might be a bit of a diplomatic game going on similar to OTL where Border-states of the North are courted to either side; Whichever side moves first probably loses that part of the fight). The second problem is that instead of being an unrecognized secessionist state, the roles are reversed and now the South controls the legitimate* (tm) government of the United States which could also be a problem diplomatically speaking. Finally, I also see the problem that the "Upper South" that in OTL was courted at first likely will just immediately side with the Federal Government, making any march South even more of a slog. Stuff like Kentucky and Maryland being mostly secure initially (though I could still see things happening like what became Modern Day West Virginia joining this rebellion, there were a lot of local issues there which ended up being tied into the civil war).

*Obviously the legitimacy is being disputed hence the war in the first place, but usually the group rebelling needs to prove themselves for the International Observers to see it that way.

 

[Crazymachines]

'Killing themselves' in the sense that if they don't the get all the moderate republicans on board with this they won't have an Unified North needed to win; Granted, perhaps that issue starts to resolve itself if the now mostly Southern Union Armies start occupying areas north (I think there might be a bit of a diplomatic game going on similar to OTL where Border-states of the North are courted to either side; Whichever side moves first probably loses that part of the fight). The second problem is that instead of being an unrecognized secessionist state, the roles are reversed and now the South controls the legitimate* (tm) government of the United States which could also be a problem diplomatically speaking. Finally, I also see the problem that the "Upper South" that in OTL was courted at first likely will just immediately side with the Federal Government, making any march South even more of a slog. Stuff like Kentucky and Maryland being mostly secure initially (though I could still see things happening like what became Modern Day West Virginia joining this rebellion, there were a lot of local issues there which ended up being tied into the civil war).

*Obviously the legitimacy is being disputed hence the war in the first place, but usually the group rebelling needs to prove themselves for the International Observers to see it that way.

So there obviously needs to be a tipping point. A shaken Breckenridge declaring temporary martial law investigating the army and congress, moving troops north to ensure no more coup shenanigans , and detaining elected officials for questioning, what would be the straw to break the camel's back?

 

[Moosemac]

So there obviously needs to be a tipping point. A shaken Breckenridge declaring temporary martial law investigating the army and congress, moving troops north to ensure no more coup shenanigans , and detaining elected officials for questioning, what would be the straw to break the camel's back?

Oh, that would do it.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I don't know if its ASB or not (it's certainly out of character) but doing a Cromwell on the Rump Parliament would do it.

You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately ... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!

Rump Parliament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Crazymachines]

Oh, that would do it.

Would it depend on the severity of the troop movements? for instance, I think moving troops to dc to prevent any more possible moves by possible uncaptured collaborators is far less serious than moving them to boston

 

[MJHistoryBuff]

Would it depend on the severity of the troop movements? for instance, I think moving troops to dc to prevent any more possible moves by possible uncaptured collaborators is far less serious than moving them to boston

If Breckenridge draws on primarily southern troops? Riots in Philadelphia, Boston, New York? More federal (but primarily southern) troops moved in. Clashes in the streets, deaths of notherners and troops? It has to provoke the north to secede, doesn't it? It doesn't matter how afraid the southern slave-owners feel. It could escalate like that if Breckenridge makes those types of moves. I don't know enough about him to know if that is plausible or not.

 

[Crazymachines]

If Breckenridge draws on primarily southern troops? Riots in Philadelphia, Boston, New York? More federal (but primarily southern) troops moved in. Clashes in the streets, deaths of notherners and troops? It has to provoke the north to secede, doesn't it? It doesn't matter how afraid the southern slave-owners feel. It could escalate like that if Breckenridge makes those types of moves. I don't know enough about him to know if that is plausible or not.

Reading his bio on wikipedia, apparently he had a reputation for being a bit of a coward.
On another note, my scenario has the north rebelling without seceding, which is the whole twist in the first place. Other than that, good analysis

 

[Crazymachines]

Draft no.2,
in chronological order:
1. Buchanan dies in office a few months before the election, Breckenridge assumes office as president

2. Breckenridge narrowly reelected in 1860, minor reports of irregularities in the Ohio and Indiana results are ignored

3. Supreme court rules on Lemmon v. New York in favour of Lemmon, causing massive protests in the northern states, who refuse to enforce the ruling.

4. Residents fron Kentucky crossing state lines to influence the midwestern results and local democratic officials discarding republican ballots is finally revealed to have swung the states of Indiana and ohio in a congressional investigation of voting irregularities, spearheaded by the Republican party

5. The Republican majority congress votes to impeach Breckenridge over evidence that the president knew and possibly helped coordinate voter fraud. The senate refuses to hold an impeachment trial.

6. Representatives from 12 states sign a document reiterating their stance on the illegitimacy of the Breckenridge presidency in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. These representatives refuse to pass any democrat introduced legislation whatsoever,

7. Several rogue officers of the local US military attempt to arrest Breckenridge in DC for "treason against the united states and subversion of the American democratic process". The attempt fails and the officers are found not to have been acting on any higher orders, but the incident is still blamed on the 'damnyankees' by many. This marks a serious escalation in tensions between Washington and the northern states.

8. President Breckinridge declares temporary martial law and begins massive investigations into the military and the activities of various members of congress, some of whom are detained and questioned at length. Large protests in various northern cities begin over the percieved tyranny and federal overeach of an illegitimate president.

9. Breckinridge begins moving troops to DC in response to the growing protests, and over fears of uncaptured collaborators of the officers making further moves against the presidency. Due to concerns over the loyalty of northern troops ( all off the officers in the arrest attempt were from free states) the troops moving into dc are overwhelmingly southern.

10. Protests and riots explode in northern cities over the movement of troops into DC. Dozens of street clashes break out in multiple cities. effigies of 'that bastard Breckinridge' are burned in Boston. over two dozen people are injured and three die in a massive brawl on vine street, Philadelphia, between Democratic and Republican supporters. Incidents of attacks on military members are recorded in multiple cities, most notably Chicago, where a disgruntled farmer opened fire on two soldiers recently transferred from Missouri. Breckinridge begins to steadly move more soldiers into the north to quell the increasing unrest

 

[Mikestone8]

Ohmygod. My thought was that; the dc government does something atrociously stupid and belligerent to the states no longer sending representatives which kicks off the civil war and alienates the other northern states on the fence. A reverse fort sumter

Keep in mid that this is *Breckenridge* we are talking about. While Breck has pro-South leanings he is not a fire-eater and won't do anything too wild. He'll probably focus on getting the Navy into Southern ports and having as many weapons as possible transferred south, just in case.

Interesting thought. Let's suppose there are some clashes between rival mobs, and some rebel sympathisers talk about marching on Washington. President Breckenridge responds by calling into Federal service the militias of Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania.

VA and MD are no problem, but in PA things get complicated. If the Governor there is a rebel sympathiser and tells the militia to ignore the summons, whom do they obey - or do some obey the POTUS (as constitutionally they should) and some the Governor? Could get messy.

One amusing possibility. George Gordon Meade, OTL's victor at Gettysburg, is a Pennsylvanian. If Breckenridge put him in charge of any loyal militia from PA, we might see a fight - perhaps even at or near Gettysburg itself - with Meade and Lee both fighting on the same side.

 

[Mikestone8]

The Republican majority congress votes to impeach Breckenridge

When exactly?

OTL, the Congress elected in 1860 had *Democratic* majorities in both houses, until the Southern members left. In a TL where the Dems have won the Presidency, in the HoR at least that majority is likely to be even larger. Even if the Republicans get control at the 1862 midterms, that Congress won't meet until December 1863, by which time everyone is presumably squaring up for the 1864 election.

Indeed, unless Breckenridge summons it, Congress won't be in session between March and December 1861. So it can't impeach anyone even if it wanted to.

 

[Mikestone8]

President Breckinridge declares temporary martial law

Might be a problem as the US Army is only 16,000 men at this time.

He might call out State Militias, but if he only called southern ones this could trigger an explosion. OTOH sme militia at least from northern states might also obey a summons, unless the north is a *lot* more united than it is likely to be.