Muti-Party Parliamentary Elections in the USA using Presidential Primary Data

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

During the presidential primaries this year I started keeping track of the overall winner by Congressional district between the Republican and Democratic primaries. For many reasons this is not a good measure of the most popular candidate in the region, not least because the primary/caucus rules vary by state and party. Nevertheless I continued.

Using The Green Papers and Dave Leip's site, I was then able to repeat this for the 2008 and 2012 primaries. And with that progression, I decided to make a silly little story to explain the changes between elections, which will follow.

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

Democratic Party
Leader: Hillary Clinton (Little Rock)
Seats: 209

Progressive Party
Leader: Barack Obama (Kenwood)
Seats: 162

Reform Party
Leader: John McCain (Fountain Hills)
Seats: 32

Republican Party
Leader: Mitt Romney (Ogden)
Seats: 22

Constitution Party
Leader: Mike Huckabee (Ouachita - lost seat)
Seats: 11

***

Both the Democratic Party and its new companion on the center-left, the sorta-dovish Progressive Party scored huge seat totals. With their point largely made, these two parties rather quickly merged after the election in a bid to continue their dominance. The right-wing parties remain scattered and unmotivated.

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

Republican Party
Leader: Mitt Romney (Ogden)
Seats: 236

Progressive Democratic Party
Leader: Barack Obama (Kenwood)
Seats: 119

Constitution Party
Leader: Rick Santorum (Butler - lost seat)
Seats: 57

Reform Party
Leader: Newt Gingrich (Marietta)
Seats: 22

Independent Democrats
Leader: John Wolfe (Chattanooga - lost seat)
Seats: 2

***

After Hillary Clinton stepped down from the newly constituted Progressive Democratic party, due to health issues, former rival Barack Obama was chosen to lead the party into the 2012 elections. In this, he failed dramatically and Mitt Romney's Republicans made large gains throughout the West and Northeast to gain a majority of seats. A holdout faction of Democrats, termed by the media as "Independent Democrats" also split the center left vote through they claimed only two seats in the end.

Newt Gingrich's southern-focused strategy saw the Reform Party wiped out in its Western stronghold. The Constitution Party made large gains, though again its leader lost his seat.

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

Progressive Democratic Party
Leader: Hillary Clinton (Little Rock)
Seats: 177

Reform Party
Leader: Donald Trump (Palm Beach)
Seats: 129

Social Democrats
Leader: Bernie Sanders (Vermont)
Seats: 57

Constitution Party
Leader: Ted Cruz (Atascocita-Lake Houston)
Seats: 57

Republican Party
Leaders: Marco Rubio (Miami Biscayne)/John Kasich (Westerville-Zanesville)
Seats: 22

***

Although Hillary Clinton returned from retirement to reclaim both the leadership and her Little Rock seat for the Progressive Democrats, the party's left flank had jumped into the new Social Democratic party led by Bernie Sanders. Although the Progressive Democrats got the highest seat total, they did need to rely on the Social Democrats for a majority.

On the right side of the spectrum, Donald Trump was able to unite the West and Southern factions of the Reform Party and helped drive the ruling Republicans to fifth place. Constitution's Ted Cruz managed to stave off major losses to his party, but much of that was due to a concentration on seats in Texas while being eroded elsewhere.

KiwiEater · Sep 14, 2016

You should do 2000 and 2004 if you have enough info

Politibrit · Sep 14, 2016

Interesting, though I think this technique is only inciteful when there are contested primaries on either side, since Obama's poor showing in 2012 is borne out of the fact that he ran unopposed.

Guildencrantz · Sep 14, 2016

JDrakeify said:
Interesting, though I think this technique is only inciteful when there are contested primaries on either side, since Obama's poor showing in 2012 is borne out of the fact that he ran unopposed.

Agreed. With that one, I'd use the real life General Election for that year

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

JDrakeify said:
Interesting, though I think this technique is only inciteful when there are contested primaries on either side, since Obama's poor showing in 2012 is borne out of the fact that he ran unopposed.

Big time. New York and Washington didn't even hold primaries that year.

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

demonkangaroo said:
Agreed. With that one, I'd use the real life General Election for that year

That would be interesting to see, and has probably been made by someone on the Atlas Forums already. However, I think it would disrupt the trends through these maps even more. Take, for instance, ancestrally Democratic states like West Virginia and Kentucky. A majority of voters there still voted in the D primary, though often times for someone other than Obama.

Alternately, I thought about extrapolating the D vote in states where the was no primary or caucus based in proportion to similar states. I may still attempt that but I don't think it will change the "story" a ton, and will muddle the purpose of the map.

Thanks for commenting.

kichinichini · Sep 14, 2016

KiwiEater said:
You should do 2000 and 2004 if you have enough info

There is probably enough out there. Honestly, I didn't know how to categorize the 2004 Democratic candidates and that's why I didn't start (also I think there are different districts for NC and GA and I didn't want to deal with that). Dean+Kuchinich+Sharpton still probably only gets 1 Progressive seat. Where does 2004 Edwards go? Clark? Plus now Bush is unchallenged. But you have whet my appetite to see such a map. I just need a break for now.

Edit: One other thing I remember doing: in 2000, I found Bill Bradley didn't carry any districts.

Teshuvah · Sep 14, 2016

Interesting! Sanders/Clinton governing in a coalition together would make for a cool TL.

Gog (♀) · Sep 14, 2016

District results in Florida going back to 1980 here, if you need them.

kodak · Sep 14, 2016

demonkangaroo said:
Agreed. With that one, I'd use the real life General Election for that year

Obama would come close to winning all 435 seats if you used GE data.

Ariosto · Sep 14, 2016

What if you did it so that you used the percentages in the primaries, but then divided up the vote totals for the candidates according to their Party's vote totals from the General Election district by district? That way it would be generally more balanced, though would require more work.

Chicxulub · Sep 14, 2016

Ariosto said:
What if you did it so that you used the percentages in the primaries, but then divided up the vote totals for the candidates according to their Party's vote totals from the General Election district by district? That way it would be generally more balanced, though would require more work.

Obama would still probably win most districts.

Ariosto · Sep 14, 2016

SketchyFan said:
Obama would still probably win most districts.

Oh I doubt it would change the overall result, but the districts carried by say McCain or Romney would make more sense, and it would be interesting in those cases where a "Republican" or "Democrat" is able to carry a district which the other in OTL had carried.

Prussian1871 · Sep 14, 2016

Huh, no Ron Paul Party?

kichinichini · Sep 15, 2016

Prussian1871 said:
Huh, no Ron Paul Party?

Yes, that was a surprise to me as well. I think there are some districts in 2008 where he got third behind Obama and Clinton.