Post-WW2 Map.
The POD is that Turkey and Spain joined the Axis in 1940, allowing Germany to have access to North Africa, and control the Mediterranean; thus, British north Africa is given to Italy. . Hitler uses better timing when invading Russia, and is able to use the momentum from the first assault to keep rolling into the Soviet Union.
During the Battle of Britain, Hitler doesn't suddenly decide to bomb London. Instead, they decimate the aircraft landing strips. However, this is not enough to secure the land invasion, so he shelves Sealion. An unintended consequence is that the popularity of Churchill is not galvanized, and as the war drags on and becomes increasingly expensive, there are cries to make a truce. The United States enters the war against Japan after Pearl Harbor, but Hitler shrewdly does not declare war on the US. American vessels still aid in protection of British convoys, however. Mostly, the US fights in the Pacific War. Germany reaches a peace with Great Britain and the exile governments in 1945. The war with the Soviet Union drags on. The US-Japanese Pacific War lasts until the 1946 nuclear bombings of Tokyo & Kyoto, and the subsequent Allied invasion.
Britain is forced to cede Egypt and Sudan to Italy. Germany creates puppet states out of Occupied Russia and Transcaucasia. Germany annexes Bohemia-Moravia, the Netherlands, and Flanders, as well as the French Atlantic Coast. Italy is given the French Mediterranean and the Ionian Coast.
One of the reasons Germany is able to defeat the USSR fairly quickly and conquer British North Africa is because Hitler doesn't waste resources with the Holocaust. Instead, the Jews within occupied territory are detained and held in concentration camps, but not sent to death camps. People still die, but it is significantly smaller than the OTL casualties of 12 million. After the war, Germany erects a puppet Israel, and ships all of the Jews in occupied Europe to the region, instead of killing them.