Hi
The Nazi economy was badly over heating in 1938. However I think it was resilient enough that a gradual halt to rearmament would be possible right up to the start of WW2. This could be achieved by increasing the amount of armourments made available for export. The Nazis had created a powerful feeling of international fear which they could then profit from by selling their potential victims the means to defend themselves. Also thanks to the general rearmerment in Europe (again thanks to the Nazis) the worst effects of the Great Depression had been left behind (of course there where other factors) so there was more money flowing in international trade than there had been in the early and mid 1930's which could help Germany rebuild its foreign currency and gold reserves. Certainly even the perception of the possibility of this could calm markets and give the economy time to cool down.