Russia can't annex North China and add it to their territories. Sure, they could go ahead with it (because people on top aren't always making rational decisions) but imposing it in reality would be a drain of men and gold. There is now way they would be able to prevent massive rebellions and guard the southern frontier. As Arlos said justly, creating a puppet empire sworn to the Romanovs is probably the optimal outcome...and even that can end badly.
In this country , it is good to kill an admiral from time to time
- Thread starter Antony444
- Start date
Russia can't annex North China and add it to their territories. Sure, they could go ahead with it (because people on top aren't always making rational decisions) but imposing it in reality would be a drain of men and gold. There is now way they would be able to prevent massive rebellions and guard the southern frontier. As Arlos said justly, creating a puppet empire sworn to the Romanovs is probably the optimal outcome...and even that can end badly.
The puppet option might be thr better option, considering how inept the Emperor is. So long as the Entente can secure enough backing from the Wu armies, then it can be pulled off. Also, killing your most public and most well liked general should piss of the soldiers.
Well it has not made the Emperor more popular or convinced the soldiers their rulers know what they are doing...
A single China would be a difficult puppet to control, if you want it to work you need to Break it down as much as possible, Tibet, Mongolia, Manchuria, Yunan, Hainan, Taiwan, Turkestan, Legation Cities, anywhere you can get a separatist sentiment going, do it.
@johnboy did:
Manchuria Republic(Russian leaning)
North China Republic(The largest state remaining)
South China Republic(a Cantonese speaking pro English state)
Hong Kong(still a UK Colony)
Yunnan Republic(A South China ally)
Tibet
Xianjian Republic(Russian leaning)
I’d say replace the first with Russian owned Manchuria and the rest might fly here, you just substitute British by French
Unholy problems (India 1900)
By the start of the new century, the strategists who had bet on a Central Alliance victory on the Indian front had wisely opted to remain anonymous and avoid the light of public attention. Omani India and Mysore had been completely defeated. The threat of an eastern counter-attack was long gone with Burmese troops routed by the Bengali forces. And on the western front, the Sikh Empire was falling apart.
It had not been a secret the Sikh population which dominated the governing class of the Empire was a minority in its own lands. Hindus and Muslims had greater numbers, despite decades of voluntary and involuntary conversions backed by the Imperial throne. This status quo had been tacitly tolerated as long as the Sikhs were victorious, the far-away provinces were ruled in something looking like fair conditions and the taxes remained low. As new technologies spread and changed the world, Ranjit IV had not governed a cemented empire, but it was one which had managed to avoid bloody religious infighting.
Until now.
The common people of the Sikh Empire had not signed for terrible conscription rates, requisitions of gargantuan food stocks and production of war supplies at ruinous prices. They had not elected the Generals and governors leading them to calamitous defeats after calamitous defeats. The cracks of the system, small when the first shot of the Great War was fired, became larger as the world war engulfed every continent of Earth. Years of total war had never been a scenario the Sikh ministers thought they had to prepare for. And by mid-1899, the system failed. The western provinces revolted, while the frontlines were breached despite heroic resistance.
At this point, Ranjit IV’s rule was contested from every direction and two assassinations came very close to end his life. Knowing the thousands of soldiers remaining loyal were sizeably outnumbered by the rebels, the Emperor tried to negotiate but the insurrection first, second and third goals were to put his head on a pike and parade it in the streets. Calls to the Shah of Persia and the King of the Ghurkhas went nowhere. Persia was trying to stop Russia from annexing half of their country and had not a single man to spare. The Ghurkhas, entered for a king’s ransom in this war, were more and more reluctant to shed blood in a lost cause. By February 1900, their armies made small withdrawals and opened formal negotiations with the Entente. No cease-fire was signed, but then no minor or major offensive was launched by French and Bengali troops for the first half of 1900.
Ranjit IV was aware of these talks, but apart from screaming in outrage to the four winds, his means to retaliate were non-existent. The last divisions answering to his orders were gradually pushed back North and as they did, the nation he had governed was turning itself against each other. For the first time in living memory, Hindus, Sikhs, Muslims and various other minorities slaughtered each other to settle feuds and insults.
The western Indian Empire advances and investments went into smoke. By July 1900, the French advance ground virtually to a halt, as Entente troops were far busier preventing the local communities butchering their neighbours than fighting a conventional war. The death toll spiralled out of control. Terror attacks and pillages, once a rarity, were now everywhere. Many dark elements of the ancient Indian eras, thought long forgotten, returned to the light in corrupted and war-like methods. Things were so horrific in several regions that when the Ghurkhas signed a formal cease-fire in October 1900, their King was forced to send immediately half of its standing armies to regulate the flow of refugees on its western frontier fleeing the bloodbath.
The Sikh Navy, which had once boasted to be the equal of the French one, was scuttled in its harbour or burned in the fires of mutiny after having spent the conflict blockaded and waiting for a battle which never came. The surviving sailors dispersed in varying factions, and with them died the hope of establishing a significant naval presence on the Eastern seas.
As the monsoon waned, the Sikh Emperor was forced to abandon entire cities without a fight. Without troops, without money and without popular support, Ranjit IV’s rule extended no further than a few kilometres outside of his capital and even this was more and more endangered as rebel Hindu forces began to converge for a great eradication of the Sikhs. Columns of refugees tried to escape to the Afghan Empire and the Ghurkha Kingdom, and from then to other countries. Ranjit IV himself would take refuge in the Sultanate of Oman with his inner circle after several months.
The war, by then labelled as the ‘Indian Civil War’, a misnomer for while it involved Indians, it was certainly anything but civil and more a series of one-sided massacres and purges than the trenches or conventional battles, continued in all its horrible glory. By November, the French army had long cancelled its upcoming offensives and was far busier preventing the same tensions to explode in their own territories.
India’s participation in the Great War was over. But the new order was already making many regretting the previous stalemate...
By the start of the new century, the strategists who had bet on a Central Alliance victory on the Indian front had wisely opted to remain anonymous and avoid the light of public attention. Omani India and Mysore had been completely defeated. The threat of an eastern counter-attack was long gone with Burmese troops routed by the Bengali forces. And on the western front, the Sikh Empire was falling apart.
It had not been a secret the Sikh population which dominated the governing class of the Empire was a minority in its own lands. Hindus and Muslims had greater numbers, despite decades of voluntary and involuntary conversions backed by the Imperial throne. This status quo had been tacitly tolerated as long as the Sikhs were victorious, the far-away provinces were ruled in something looking like fair conditions and the taxes remained low. As new technologies spread and changed the world, Ranjit IV had not governed a cemented empire, but it was one which had managed to avoid bloody religious infighting.
Until now.
The common people of the Sikh Empire had not signed for terrible conscription rates, requisitions of gargantuan food stocks and production of war supplies at ruinous prices. They had not elected the Generals and governors leading them to calamitous defeats after calamitous defeats. The cracks of the system, small when the first shot of the Great War was fired, became larger as the world war engulfed every continent of Earth. Years of total war had never been a scenario the Sikh ministers thought they had to prepare for. And by mid-1899, the system failed. The western provinces revolted, while the frontlines were breached despite heroic resistance.
At this point, Ranjit IV’s rule was contested from every direction and two assassinations came very close to end his life. Knowing the thousands of soldiers remaining loyal were sizeably outnumbered by the rebels, the Emperor tried to negotiate but the insurrection first, second and third goals were to put his head on a pike and parade it in the streets. Calls to the Shah of Persia and the King of the Ghurkhas went nowhere. Persia was trying to stop Russia from annexing half of their country and had not a single man to spare. The Ghurkhas, entered for a king’s ransom in this war, were more and more reluctant to shed blood in a lost cause. By February 1900, their armies made small withdrawals and opened formal negotiations with the Entente. No cease-fire was signed, but then no minor or major offensive was launched by French and Bengali troops for the first half of 1900.
Ranjit IV was aware of these talks, but apart from screaming in outrage to the four winds, his means to retaliate were non-existent. The last divisions answering to his orders were gradually pushed back North and as they did, the nation he had governed was turning itself against each other. For the first time in living memory, Hindus, Sikhs, Muslims and various other minorities slaughtered each other to settle feuds and insults.
The western Indian Empire advances and investments went into smoke. By July 1900, the French advance ground virtually to a halt, as Entente troops were far busier preventing the local communities butchering their neighbours than fighting a conventional war. The death toll spiralled out of control. Terror attacks and pillages, once a rarity, were now everywhere. Many dark elements of the ancient Indian eras, thought long forgotten, returned to the light in corrupted and war-like methods. Things were so horrific in several regions that when the Ghurkhas signed a formal cease-fire in October 1900, their King was forced to send immediately half of its standing armies to regulate the flow of refugees on its western frontier fleeing the bloodbath.
The Sikh Navy, which had once boasted to be the equal of the French one, was scuttled in its harbour or burned in the fires of mutiny after having spent the conflict blockaded and waiting for a battle which never came. The surviving sailors dispersed in varying factions, and with them died the hope of establishing a significant naval presence on the Eastern seas.
As the monsoon waned, the Sikh Emperor was forced to abandon entire cities without a fight. Without troops, without money and without popular support, Ranjit IV’s rule extended no further than a few kilometres outside of his capital and even this was more and more endangered as rebel Hindu forces began to converge for a great eradication of the Sikhs. Columns of refugees tried to escape to the Afghan Empire and the Ghurkha Kingdom, and from then to other countries. Ranjit IV himself would take refuge in the Sultanate of Oman with his inner circle after several months.
The war, by then labelled as the ‘Indian Civil War’, a misnomer for while it involved Indians, it was certainly anything but civil and more a series of one-sided massacres and purges than the trenches or conventional battles, continued in all its horrible glory. By November, the French army had long cancelled its upcoming offensives and was far busier preventing the same tensions to explode in their own territories.
India’s participation in the Great War was over. But the new order was already making many regretting the previous stalemate...
Surprised the Emperor made it out of that mess. What happened to the capital in the end?
Great to have you back
For the moment, the Sikh capital is an independent city-state bribing by various means the potential attackers to go away and ignore them. It has worked...for now.
Thanks fo the support, I was busy with Let the Galaxy Burn updates and other AU writing...
Yes, but now, well they're experiencing a hard return to obscurity...
An Ocean too far (Hawaii 1900)
The situation of East Asia by mid-1900 was easy to sum up. Southern Japan had triumphed over Northern Japan. The Philippines had been lost by the Entente. And Southern China was making great advances in the Northern Chinese territories, making their ultimate victory a more and more likely prospect.
Neither Russia nor France was really in the mood to abandon a nation of hundreds of millions to the Central Alliance. China was not Guyana. The abandonment of a minor colony was one thing, especially when it could be blamed on Brazilian’s perfidy. The defeat of one entire theatre would not be tolerated and heads would roll for this. It didn’t matter in a way that the Entente had overwhelmed its enemies in Africa and India, forced them back on thousands of kilometres in Northern America and was giving nightmares to its enemies in Europe. The Entente men and women wanted to hear victories and that the war’s end was near. Years of sacrifices had to be recompensed, and the sooner, the better.
The easiest way to prevent political problems and riots in the streets was to strangle the China issue in the cradle. Save Northern China and provoke a collapse of Southern China; it was what the Entente leadership demanded. It didn’t matter if the Wu regime went bankrupt or collapsed economically months after a hypothetical peace treaty: as long as there was victory, the public was going to probably to forget everything about the Chinese the moment there was no longer war.
But as the men charged to find solutions agreed very rapidly, the Chinese quagmire was a monumental headache. The Northern Chinese army was a mess and that was if one wanted to be polite and cordial. Its best Generals were highly distrustful of their Emperor...or they were dead and buried. Either way, the competent officers spent more time worrying if some favoured nobleman was going to order their assassination than fighting their Southern opponents.
By September, the French staff concluded unhappily there was no other option than to send an army overseas to save China. The French army in India was going to be busy for months administering the conquered lands, and the Bengali were facing a massive uprising in its new Burmese possessions. They wouldn’t be able to intervene before September-October 1901, at best. And by then, if the panicked reports coming from the Chinese frontlines were any indication, it would be too late. Such was the chaos that Russian operatives openly advised removing the Emperor and partitioning Wu China between France, Russia and Japan to make it more defensible.
But far away from the action, the Entente strategists hadn’t considered the enemy had also a say in the outcome of the war. The Central Alliance, repulsed and defeated on many fronts, hadn’t the intention to explain to their own citizens a new disaster and ignominious defeat. They had not the divisions to counter the legions the Entente was going to send to the rescue. Thus the UPNG and California didn’t try. Instead many capital warships were withdrawn from the East Indies and the Pacific in the last months under false pretexts.
On November 30 1900, five battleships, ten cruisers and dozens of escorts arrived to Hawaii, the key of the Russian-French logistical chain about to give China a new chance.
Surprise was total, the French intelligence services for once being completely outmanoeuvred by the Granadans. There were only two Russian battleships in the Oahu harbour, and one was an antiquity good for an exhibition of how not build a capital ship. The defending warships were under-gunned for a small squadron, completely unable to contest the attack of the Alliance Fleet. The coastal batteries, after years of inaction and raided for manpower, were crushed after a few hours. Oahu fell, and though the Russian commanders managed to torch, sink and destroy most of the supplies before final surrender came, it was still a horrendous blow. Several light cruisers escaped to carry the dreadful news back to Japan or Western Pacifica, but in one deep cut, the supply lines of the Entente had just been elongated by hundreds of nautical miles...and the Entente had nothing to reinforce them with. Most of the Russian Pacific Fleet was needed westwards, and the French had not that many cruisers in these waters, never mind battleships.
Immediately, French strategists began to cancel the planned offensives and redraw their propositions for an offensive from Bengal, but it was going to take time. Months at best, and no one had any idea if Northern China would hold that long. Nicholas II gave orders to his highest advisors Manchuria and Southern Mongolia were to be occupied if the situation became worse.
But the reality remained that there had been another defeat, Oahu was lost – with the rest of the islands chain soon to follow – and the end of the war in Asia had never appeared so far away...
The situation of East Asia by mid-1900 was easy to sum up. Southern Japan had triumphed over Northern Japan. The Philippines had been lost by the Entente. And Southern China was making great advances in the Northern Chinese territories, making their ultimate victory a more and more likely prospect.
Neither Russia nor France was really in the mood to abandon a nation of hundreds of millions to the Central Alliance. China was not Guyana. The abandonment of a minor colony was one thing, especially when it could be blamed on Brazilian’s perfidy. The defeat of one entire theatre would not be tolerated and heads would roll for this. It didn’t matter in a way that the Entente had overwhelmed its enemies in Africa and India, forced them back on thousands of kilometres in Northern America and was giving nightmares to its enemies in Europe. The Entente men and women wanted to hear victories and that the war’s end was near. Years of sacrifices had to be recompensed, and the sooner, the better.
The easiest way to prevent political problems and riots in the streets was to strangle the China issue in the cradle. Save Northern China and provoke a collapse of Southern China; it was what the Entente leadership demanded. It didn’t matter if the Wu regime went bankrupt or collapsed economically months after a hypothetical peace treaty: as long as there was victory, the public was going to probably to forget everything about the Chinese the moment there was no longer war.
But as the men charged to find solutions agreed very rapidly, the Chinese quagmire was a monumental headache. The Northern Chinese army was a mess and that was if one wanted to be polite and cordial. Its best Generals were highly distrustful of their Emperor...or they were dead and buried. Either way, the competent officers spent more time worrying if some favoured nobleman was going to order their assassination than fighting their Southern opponents.
By September, the French staff concluded unhappily there was no other option than to send an army overseas to save China. The French army in India was going to be busy for months administering the conquered lands, and the Bengali were facing a massive uprising in its new Burmese possessions. They wouldn’t be able to intervene before September-October 1901, at best. And by then, if the panicked reports coming from the Chinese frontlines were any indication, it would be too late. Such was the chaos that Russian operatives openly advised removing the Emperor and partitioning Wu China between France, Russia and Japan to make it more defensible.
But far away from the action, the Entente strategists hadn’t considered the enemy had also a say in the outcome of the war. The Central Alliance, repulsed and defeated on many fronts, hadn’t the intention to explain to their own citizens a new disaster and ignominious defeat. They had not the divisions to counter the legions the Entente was going to send to the rescue. Thus the UPNG and California didn’t try. Instead many capital warships were withdrawn from the East Indies and the Pacific in the last months under false pretexts.
On November 30 1900, five battleships, ten cruisers and dozens of escorts arrived to Hawaii, the key of the Russian-French logistical chain about to give China a new chance.
Surprise was total, the French intelligence services for once being completely outmanoeuvred by the Granadans. There were only two Russian battleships in the Oahu harbour, and one was an antiquity good for an exhibition of how not build a capital ship. The defending warships were under-gunned for a small squadron, completely unable to contest the attack of the Alliance Fleet. The coastal batteries, after years of inaction and raided for manpower, were crushed after a few hours. Oahu fell, and though the Russian commanders managed to torch, sink and destroy most of the supplies before final surrender came, it was still a horrendous blow. Several light cruisers escaped to carry the dreadful news back to Japan or Western Pacifica, but in one deep cut, the supply lines of the Entente had just been elongated by hundreds of nautical miles...and the Entente had nothing to reinforce them with. Most of the Russian Pacific Fleet was needed westwards, and the French had not that many cruisers in these waters, never mind battleships.
Immediately, French strategists began to cancel the planned offensives and redraw their propositions for an offensive from Bengal, but it was going to take time. Months at best, and no one had any idea if Northern China would hold that long. Nicholas II gave orders to his highest advisors Manchuria and Southern Mongolia were to be occupied if the situation became worse.
But the reality remained that there had been another defeat, Oahu was lost – with the rest of the islands chain soon to follow – and the end of the war in Asia had never appeared so far away...
Depends your notion of unification...Southern China has still a lot of teritory to go and neither the Japanese nor the Russians are going to make the task easy for them.
Not really, it's just that every reaction in the real world is making counter-moves of the other side unavoidable...
Well, Southern China has a far flexible social structure, they are less corrupt, have more technologically-advanced regiments...the Northerners try to negate this by full offensives and burying them under the numbers.
And it stands that their allies, after screwing them with Taiwan and the Philippines, have to do something for them otherwise the Chuan dynasty can cut deals with the Entente and leave the Alliance.
But yes, the price was heavy for this new move. Advancing further in the East Indies is more or less impossible now, which means the upcoming offensive against Singapore will be delayed for a couple of years at best. They are also suffering in the convoy protection (escorts for the fleet had to be found somewhere) and any attempt to transfer a fleet by Panama canal will have to wait a peace treaty...
How would they even know about what the Entente was planning? Why was the lynchpin to the entire battleplan to end the war guarded by two decrepit battleship and stripped Coastal Guns? I mean, you’d think such a crucial location to not only end the war but also fight it would not be undermanned but in fact reinforced. Also, for being the strongest naval powers, the Entente is quite passive with it’s fleets, if we are working on a counter-moves basis, then I expect Entente naval counter-move to this to be absolutely devastating to the Alliance.
If I remember correctly, the only reason why The Entente didn’t have crushing naval superiority was because France was blockading india, now that the conflict is done that mean the fleets have been freed and can go in the pacific, and with the big fleet the Alliance just assembled it’s not going to be hard to find them.... and even if they don’t, they can just go sit at Hawaii and starve the troups here to death. They could also bomb UPNG and California coastal cities, or attack Alliance fleet in port.
I have a feeling you have a plan for China honestly, probably something for WW2, but really, the only way for China to get out of this is to cut a deal, they get the majority of northern China but have to give up quite a bit of territory to the Entente, abandon Korea, manchuria, mongolia, Tibet, Turkestan.
I agree with Arlos how did the UPNG knew of the Entente plans unless the Russians were incompetent and let the whole affair leak? What was the french fleet doing? The UPNG should be scarred to go out a sea for fear of annihilation, I think powerwise the UPNG should be on the level of of OTL Italy.
Death, Conspiracies and Victory (Eastern Europe 1900)
According to the war plan of 1895, by January 1900 the armies of the European Union and the Kingdom of Poland were supposed to have liberated Livonia, taken the granaries of Ukraine for their own use, captured the city of Saint Petersburg in a pincer attack and generally deprived the Russian Bear from all its options to trade outside its borders.
Reality was far more disappointing. The Black Sea remained Russian-dominated, and at every moment of the year convoys sailed from harbours like Barcelona, Marseille and Athens to Odessa, Sochi and naval facilities whose allegiance was to the tsar of Russia. Finland was crushed, and any attack on Saint Petersburg by this point could not be considered anything else than the delusions of an asylum inmate.
For Sigismund IV, it was a big problem. Unlike the Southern Chinese Emperor, the King of Poland knew he was the primary enemy of Nicholas II. Considering the enmity between the two monarchs, there was a high probability the terms to make peace were going to be unpalatable when they were handed to the diplomats.
There were also dynastic considerations. The defeats of March 1899 had shaken badly the moral of the population. Before them, his subjects had been relatively confident in their ultimate victory. The troops were advancing into the Russian uncivilised lands, tens of thousands barbarians were killed and Livonia was partially liberated. Censorship and propaganda helping, the Polish common man in the streets had in all likelihood a rosy image of the Great War. 1899 put an end to this status quo.
Polish women working in the factories were not necessarily military geniuses, but every mother and sister could understand that when your armies were accumulating ‘great victories’ all the while the distance with Lodz and Warsaw never stopped shrinking, the outcome of the battles was not exactly as promising as the progresses written by the government-owned press.
Sigismund IV raged and demanded explanations to his Generals, but the high-ranked commanders threw back the accusations. In 1897, they had been confident to beat the Russians, but it had been with the help of Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Finland, Persia, the Ottoman Empire and many others. Obviously, Persia had been broken by third-rate garrison troops, the Ottomans were neutral and more and more inclined to side with the Entente and the Dual Republic had to send most of its reserves in Italy to save what they could from the French offensive. Since Finland was gone, Sweden was more or less allied with the Romanovs and Saxony had to do what it could to stalemate the Germans and the French, Poland was more or less alone to deal with the Russian bear.
In March 1900, the Serbians to their astonishment had been badly mauled by the first massive attack of the Greek army, forcing them to abandon any idea to go further east in Ukraine and Crimea. It was Poland against Russia, and in a straight contest the name of the winner was not difficult to guess.
There was a last option, and Sigismund used it shamelessly. The Russian in-exile Collectivists were sent in secret to the Russian capitals, their hate for Nicholas II being stronger than the distrust they felt for the Polish people.
On April 11, they struck. The Russian regime had been leaking war dispositions like a sieve for decades, and while the secret police had shut down and sent to Siberia tens of thousands enemies of the state, they were always more conspiring in the shadows. On April 11 1900, Moscow was the theatre of an extremely violent coup attempt, with hundreds of Polish-armed insurgents fuelling the anger of thousands anti-war Russians tired of the sacrifices imposed by the Great War and the corruption of the nobles. The garrison of the capital tried to intervene, but in the confusion many turned traitor or sided with their families over their oaths.
In the end, it took nearly five days for the loyal tsarist forces to retake Moscow from the insurgency, and when they did it was a bloodbath. Nicholas II had perished in the first minutes of the coup attempt, his entire escort slaughtered and his personal car blasted apart by a powerful explosion. After this massive betrayal, none of the divisions and regiments called to subdue the agitation were very inclined to be merciful. If several of the Collectivists managed to escape, it was because thousands of their brothers-in-arms were arrested and executed by firing squads.
Contrary to what the Polish agents in charge of the operation had hoped, the death of Nicholas II didn’t trigger a devastating civil war and the great cities didn’t rise in revolt. At best, there were some riots or other attempts to rebel, but those were brutally crushed and as the involvement of foreign powers was a given from the start, the actions were assimilated as a stab in the back.
Furthermore, the coup leaders had killed the supreme ruler, but they had missed his heir: Princess Anastasia had been at Saint Petersburg when the coup took place, and thus was out of reach of the Collectivists. Two weeks later, she was crowned as Anastasia I, Tsarina of the Russian Empire.
The European Union didn’t lose that much territory in the summer campaign, but the Russian next offensive still retook the entirety of Livonia and for the first time eastern boots accepted the surrender of several positions on the pre-war frontier. There were also Polish villages under the fire of the artillery, forcing Warsaw to order the first evacuations since 1897.
Sigismund IV had not much to bargain left. Serbia was holding against Greece, but it was another bloody stalemate after a short Greek advance. There was no possible breakthrough in the Ukrainian provinces and taking Kiev would require a miracle. Moreover, Anastasia I’s police was busy imprisoning and exiling several thousand people who may have had at one point or another showed sympathy towards Poland and the agenda they promoted.
The Bear was preparing for the last act...and few at Warsaw predicted a nice end to this story of war, gunpowder and death...
According to the war plan of 1895, by January 1900 the armies of the European Union and the Kingdom of Poland were supposed to have liberated Livonia, taken the granaries of Ukraine for their own use, captured the city of Saint Petersburg in a pincer attack and generally deprived the Russian Bear from all its options to trade outside its borders.
Reality was far more disappointing. The Black Sea remained Russian-dominated, and at every moment of the year convoys sailed from harbours like Barcelona, Marseille and Athens to Odessa, Sochi and naval facilities whose allegiance was to the tsar of Russia. Finland was crushed, and any attack on Saint Petersburg by this point could not be considered anything else than the delusions of an asylum inmate.
For Sigismund IV, it was a big problem. Unlike the Southern Chinese Emperor, the King of Poland knew he was the primary enemy of Nicholas II. Considering the enmity between the two monarchs, there was a high probability the terms to make peace were going to be unpalatable when they were handed to the diplomats.
There were also dynastic considerations. The defeats of March 1899 had shaken badly the moral of the population. Before them, his subjects had been relatively confident in their ultimate victory. The troops were advancing into the Russian uncivilised lands, tens of thousands barbarians were killed and Livonia was partially liberated. Censorship and propaganda helping, the Polish common man in the streets had in all likelihood a rosy image of the Great War. 1899 put an end to this status quo.
Polish women working in the factories were not necessarily military geniuses, but every mother and sister could understand that when your armies were accumulating ‘great victories’ all the while the distance with Lodz and Warsaw never stopped shrinking, the outcome of the battles was not exactly as promising as the progresses written by the government-owned press.
Sigismund IV raged and demanded explanations to his Generals, but the high-ranked commanders threw back the accusations. In 1897, they had been confident to beat the Russians, but it had been with the help of Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Finland, Persia, the Ottoman Empire and many others. Obviously, Persia had been broken by third-rate garrison troops, the Ottomans were neutral and more and more inclined to side with the Entente and the Dual Republic had to send most of its reserves in Italy to save what they could from the French offensive. Since Finland was gone, Sweden was more or less allied with the Romanovs and Saxony had to do what it could to stalemate the Germans and the French, Poland was more or less alone to deal with the Russian bear.
In March 1900, the Serbians to their astonishment had been badly mauled by the first massive attack of the Greek army, forcing them to abandon any idea to go further east in Ukraine and Crimea. It was Poland against Russia, and in a straight contest the name of the winner was not difficult to guess.
There was a last option, and Sigismund used it shamelessly. The Russian in-exile Collectivists were sent in secret to the Russian capitals, their hate for Nicholas II being stronger than the distrust they felt for the Polish people.
On April 11, they struck. The Russian regime had been leaking war dispositions like a sieve for decades, and while the secret police had shut down and sent to Siberia tens of thousands enemies of the state, they were always more conspiring in the shadows. On April 11 1900, Moscow was the theatre of an extremely violent coup attempt, with hundreds of Polish-armed insurgents fuelling the anger of thousands anti-war Russians tired of the sacrifices imposed by the Great War and the corruption of the nobles. The garrison of the capital tried to intervene, but in the confusion many turned traitor or sided with their families over their oaths.
In the end, it took nearly five days for the loyal tsarist forces to retake Moscow from the insurgency, and when they did it was a bloodbath. Nicholas II had perished in the first minutes of the coup attempt, his entire escort slaughtered and his personal car blasted apart by a powerful explosion. After this massive betrayal, none of the divisions and regiments called to subdue the agitation were very inclined to be merciful. If several of the Collectivists managed to escape, it was because thousands of their brothers-in-arms were arrested and executed by firing squads.
Contrary to what the Polish agents in charge of the operation had hoped, the death of Nicholas II didn’t trigger a devastating civil war and the great cities didn’t rise in revolt. At best, there were some riots or other attempts to rebel, but those were brutally crushed and as the involvement of foreign powers was a given from the start, the actions were assimilated as a stab in the back.
Furthermore, the coup leaders had killed the supreme ruler, but they had missed his heir: Princess Anastasia had been at Saint Petersburg when the coup took place, and thus was out of reach of the Collectivists. Two weeks later, she was crowned as Anastasia I, Tsarina of the Russian Empire.
The European Union didn’t lose that much territory in the summer campaign, but the Russian next offensive still retook the entirety of Livonia and for the first time eastern boots accepted the surrender of several positions on the pre-war frontier. There were also Polish villages under the fire of the artillery, forcing Warsaw to order the first evacuations since 1897.
Sigismund IV had not much to bargain left. Serbia was holding against Greece, but it was another bloody stalemate after a short Greek advance. There was no possible breakthrough in the Ukrainian provinces and taking Kiev would require a miracle. Moreover, Anastasia I’s police was busy imprisoning and exiling several thousand people who may have had at one point or another showed sympathy towards Poland and the agenda they promoted.
The Bear was preparing for the last act...and few at Warsaw predicted a nice end to this story of war, gunpowder and death...
Well, good news is Russia won’t suffer from the millions of death that civil war and communisn brought, so that’s something at least...
I imagine Greece finally decided the entente was going to win and wanted a part of the pie
Yes, Russia is at least going to avoid that...I won't say the future will be an utopia, but they won't receive the civil war with communists on top of the Great War.
Ah, yes the Polandball...
More seriously, Poland had a fair chance, but once they failed to knock out Russia rapidly, the best they could hope was a bloody stalemate. Russia, unlike in real history, had never its Black Sea trade cut, courtsey of the Ottomans never entering the war. Add to that the Russian armies are slightly inferior, but not that much, to their Poland opponents and the moment the war effort ordered by the Romanovs was really started, Poland was not going to win in the long-term...