IJN Carrier attack on Hawaii - January 1942. Wargame for thread in progress.

[Glenn239]

That narrative was the resolution of the turn's first strike of FO6 (27 x A5M4, Claude) T4 (18 x B5N1 or 2 Kate) vs. Enterprise, Yorktown and 4 cruisers. I was sending Mike die rolls and posting updates online as the rolls came in.

IJN losses were FO3, T2 to US fighters (22 aircraft shot down or too badly damaged to continue)) and T1 to US anti-aircraft (5 aircraft).
US losses were F1 to IJN fighters. (4 or 5 aircraft)
Enterprise dodged a T1 torpedo attack (4 or 5 torpedoes).

 

[phx1138]

Not crushing losses for a strike mission, but not looking good for future operations.

And Big E is showing her good luck holds even in online games.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

Not crushing losses for a strike mission, but not looking good for future operations.

And Big E is showing her good luck holds even in online games.

the CAP Pilots have to be confused a bit at the A5M escorts. Have to know a light carrier force is in the area. the Kido Butai would have had Zeroes for escorts...Which means Halsey's going to be glad night is falling, because 6 major fleet crriers vs his two will be less than optimal.

 

[phx1138]

the CAP Pilots have to be confused a bit at the A5M escorts. Have to know a light carrier force is in the area. the Kido Butai would have had Zeroes for escorts...Which means Halsey's going to be glad night is falling, because 6 major fleet crriers vs his two will be less than optimal.

For the moment, he could be feeling pretty good, thinking there's only Zuiho & Shoho. (Absent knowing what his scouts actually saw...)

Wait til the next strike hits.

 

[Glenn239]

Well, if the game is any indication, from that two IJN light carriers ain't no match for 2 US carriers, because FO6, T4 was about everything except the kitchen sink for no result.

Aboard Akagi, 250 miles NNW of Oahu.

The excitment aboard Akagi had been building all morning. Wending between handy cloud banks, Nagumo's force had dodged several search aircraft before finally an American carrier type aircraft had rummaged through the formation, dissappearing into deep clouds as Zeros closed in. Soon afternoon a scout from Soryu had signalled that two YORKTOWN class carriers had been sighted only 200 miles west of the flagship.

Fuchida's first wave was already on deck and warmed up. Within 20 minutes of the sighting all six heavy carriers of Nagumo's command had turned to the east and launched a massive strike at the enemy. Independent of Kido Butai, the attached light carriers Shoho and Zuiho had sent their own strike westwards.

No sooner had the first wave departed than the second was lifted to the deck. Launch preparations proceeded smoothly and less than one hour after the first wave, the second was heading west.

The radio intercept station had crackled for over an hour and a half after the first wave's departure with numerous calls from enemy aircraft in the direction of Oahu. A scout from Tone had reported, "Many enemy aircraft heading your way from Oahu". Despite the tension, Genda looked almost serene as he waited. Then, a few minutes later, a Japanese air leader's command, "All planes, go in!" was picked up. But this caused confusion on Akagi's bridge, for it was Zuiho's strike leader that had made the call. What of Fuchida?

But there was no time for that. Startling Nagumo out of his worried muddle, a booming 8" shot from the cruiser Mogami. Then another from Tone. Then, the lookouts started to yell warnings. One, then two, then three large enemy formations were inbound on Kido Butai....

 

[Glenn239]

The US player scored some good luck with his strike rolls - not only did his carriers both find the target (the odds were against them), but they managed to attack simultaneously and a strike from Oahu arrived at the same time - less than a 20% chance that would happen.

Lt CDR Pederson's Yorktown air group had departed TF-1 and flown east north east. He had reached, then passed, his expected interception point, and the TBD's chugging along far below would soon have to return to Yorktown or risk splashing. But then, one of the bombers from VS-5 had signalled 'enemy in sight'. Pederson turned his formation, and soon the Japanese fleet came into view. He was expecting to see two carriers. Instead, below he could see 8 carriers and 6 heavy cruisers.

Unbeknownst to Pederson, by pure luck US forces had pulled off a coordinated attack. Not only his group, but Enterprise's as well found the enemy in the next few minutes. To make the Japanese predicament worse, a strike from Oahu also had arrived from the south.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

Unbeknownst to Pederson, by pure luck US forces had pulled off a coordinated attack. Not only his group, but Enterprise's as well found the enemy in the next few minutes. To make the Japanese predicament worse, a strike from Oahu also had arrived from the south.

a perfectly coordinated strike by pure luck happened at midway as well. this may be messy.

 

[Glenn239]

It would take historians 80 years to unravel the confusion of the next ten minutes, (whereas it took the GM only a few minutes to summon all the roles) as air battles broke out all around Kido Butai between over 80 defending fighters and 130 attackers. What Pederson could see around him as he flew on was that his own escorts were having no end of trouble staying with the nimble Zero defenders, and that the Japanese aircraft were cutting swaths out of the attacker's ranks.

The Japanese player rolled very hot in the bounce and Ingress rounds, shooting down D3 (SBD Dauntless), T3 (TBD Devastor), M2 (B-18 Bolo), F1 (P-40), F2 (F4F Wildcat) while losing only F1 (Zero) in return.

A pause now for the US player to examine his attack options. He has D7, T4 attacking.

 

[Glenn239]

a perfectly coordinated strike by pure luck happened at midway as well. this may be messy.

At Midway the story was luck plus a whole lot of groups searching for the enemy. Here, the US player rolled 1 or 2 for coordinated carrier strike, then a strike from Hawaii rolled identically (range + DR) as the carrier strike. Bingo, combined strike. Could just as easily have drifted in three separate waves and the CAP would have trounced each in turn. A Japanese advantage rule came into play - the Wildcat is a much poorer escort than the Zero, even allowing for the fact that they shoot each other down about equally, (the IJN advantage in the fighter duel was mostly luck).

 

[phx1138]

*The Japanese player rolled very hot in the bounce and Ingress rounds, shooting down D3 (SBD Dauntless), T3 (TBD Devastor), M2 (B-18 Bolo), F1 (P-40), F2 (F4F Wildcat) while losing only F1 (Zero) in return.

That is happy news for me.

OTOH, it seems karma is against Japan here, too. The U.S. is getting the good rolls again. (OTL, it sometimes seems Japan got no good break after Coral Sea.)

I wonder, if you gamed the war & simply re-rolled every major battle outcome, would Japan do better?

 

[Talwar]

That's quite a slaughter in the air. Be curious to see if the Americans make up for it as they strike.

 

[Dilvish]

That's quite a slaughter in the air. Be curious to see if the Americans make up for it as they strike.

I sure hope so. Those poor B-18s, I thought all of them were busy searching and the mediums were A-20s or B-25s. As bad as my air groups have been shot up, I'm worried about where Fuchida's strike force is.

Sort of spoiler alert - I'm targeting Kaga and Akagi. They are the two biggest threats to mw, and likely the two most appealing targets to my aviators.

 

[Dilvish]

That is happy news for me.

OTOH, it seems karma is against Japan here, too. The U.S. is getting the good rolls again. (OTL, it sometimes seems Japan got no good break after Coral Sea.)

I wonder, if you gamed the war & simply re-rolled every major battle outcome, would Japan do better?

Good points there. Midway was a lot of bad dice rolls for Japan. At Leyte Gulf, the only good rolls Japan got was in letting the Center Force sneak back into the fight.

I like your idea of playing out the Pacific War. I'm thinking of 7 players at least. ANZAC/Dutch commander, two US theater commanders (South and Central Pacific, for example), and an overall US commander, an overall Japanese commander, and two theater commanders (again South and Central Pacific).

dilvish

 

[zert]

Just caught up on tbe action. Good to see the Enterprise survived the first attack but there is still more coming her way.

Damn but the Japanese CAP killed quite a few attackers. Just hope the survivers can draw some blood and make it out alive.

Thanks again for sharing these action reports and giving images to go along with the dice roll result.

 

[zert]

A whole campaign sounds interesting. If you do go for it I would gladly follow.

 

[Glenn239]

That's quite a slaughter in the air. Be curious to see if the Americans make up for it as they strike.

There are 72 Zeroes on CAP, so the carnage from the Japanese side was a bit high, but not out of the question. The US player rolled poorly, shooting down only F1 when F3 (14 Zeroes) would have been about average for the 18 rolls he made.

 

[Glenn239]

A whole campaign sounds interesting. If you do go for it I would gladly follow.

Lotta rules and research behind a whole campaign game.

 

[zert]

Well from my own experience with the murphy's of dice rolls just randomness will bite you in the ass when you least want it.

Just curious on the number of the CAP. 72 seems a little high. 12 Zeros per fleet carrier?! Did the player pick that? If so then he got it right along with great dice rolls.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The US player scored some good luck with his strike rolls - not only did his carriers both find the target (the odds were against them), but they managed to attack simultaneously and a strike from Oahu arrived at the same time - less than a 20% chance that would happen.

One of Avalon Hills game designers opined in a interview that a game had to be "play tested at least forty times" to work out variables like luck in dice rolls. So is it safe to assume you will rerun this game several dozen times to average out the dice rolls and other little distortions

 

[Glenn239]

Genda was standing on the bridge, completely engrossed with the air battles. One after another, the tiny formation of dots would lose one of their number as another American bomber sprouted fire. Elation gradually turned towards concern as the dots grew larger and, despite large gashes hacked out of their numbers, the survivors flew on unconcerned. These were brave men.

On came two groups of enemy torpedo bombers, diving on Kaga through scattered AA fire from the screening cruisers. But the big carrier wheeled slowly on her helm and presented her stern. The attack was poor; the attackers dropped too far out and from poor angles, letting Akagi's sister escape.

A shout from the lookout position startled him back from his smug satisfaction, "Helldivers above the Kaga!".

Kusaka remained calm, "Where are Kaga's arrows pointing?"

"Arrows Level", came the answer - Kaga's anti-aircraft was firing horizontally, engrossed with the torpedo bombers. "Then signal Kaga to raise her arrows" came Kusaka's sharp retort.

It was too late. Pederson's Yorktown survivors angled over even as Kaga's anti-aircraft swung to the vertical and barked. The heavy carrier ambled hopefully into a full starboard turn.

The evasion seemed to throw off the first three bombers, including Pederson, with near misses to starboard. But then the fourth bomber hit the flight deck dead center, and so did the 5th and 6th. Heavy fires broke out as twelve more Dauntlesses dived in, and in the confusion Kaga shuddered under three more hits, with fires raging on the deck and hangers from the bridge back to the stern. She sheared violently and came to dead stop under a pall of her own smoke.

Genda had no time to be horrified. "Helldivers overhead!" came the lookouts cry. He looked upwards to see about a dozen aircraft starting their dives on Akagi. He heard Captain Hasegawa bark orders and watched as one after another bomb fell close by the big carrier. But Akagi's luck, too ran out as two hit struck her, one on the edge of the deck, one on the fantail. As fires broke out, another group of torpedo bombers bore in. This attack was much better executed than on Kaga and sprout of water dead amidships showed one hit on Akagi. But the barrage seemed not to effect the ship and she plowed on, smoke from her fires streaming back towards Hara's flagship Shokaku.

As the bombers came out of their dives the Zeros were waiting. Another 5 Zeroes and 18 US aircraft fell as the air battles fell off to the west.