I'm wondering what Bobby in '72 would be like...
Would he go full-on McGovern and become Anti-War?
How much would a RFK Administration differ from Nixon's?
- Thread starter TheKennedyMachine.
- Start date
Would he go full-on McGovern and become Anti-War?
I don't know, maby more often then not he would lose the 68 convention, but he has both name recognition and the strong support of the unions that year, pluse the have been plenty of whip count analysts that show he could win, especially if Humphrey could be keeper out thanks to some early primary defiets in New England.
Hugg, I can't seem to find the thread that talked about it, but apparently Jeff Greenfields book talks about it in some depth.
Could there be a change of policy, as regards Biafra? A bulwark of capitalism and democracy in Africa. Perhaps Stronger support for Jordan in the Black September crisis. India would be encouraged to support Bangladesh.
I might expect him to go in a similar direction as Carter. Good intentions but little progress.
Bobby was known, if I recall correctly, as having a very serious temper that could often get in his own way. I don't see him working very well with either wing of Congress,
RFK, even more so than JFK, I feel has been idealized to a point beyond his actual ability. I do see the domestic front going in very similar directions to the Nixon years, however it might be less successful without a Republican President acquiescing to a democratic congress. He'd likely have more in his way.
I also don't see RFK as anywhere near Nixon's level in the terms of foreign relations. Say what you want about Nixon, and love or hate him, his intelligence and ability to spin a multitude of plates at once hasn't been matched since.
With Vietnam, I have a hard time seeing RFK having much better luck, we might leave a few years early if he abandons south vietnam, but he isn't going to do a day 1 withdrawal. And we certainly aren't going to see a RFK going to China.
RFK wasn't a paragon of virtue either. He was suspected of having affairs, but not to the degree or openess of Jack. And as AG, he ordered wiretaps and surveillance that can easily be argued as less than ethical,
Bobby was known, if I recall correctly, as having a very serious temper that could often get in his own way. I don't see him working very well with either wing of Congress,
RFK, even more so than JFK, I feel has been idealized to a point beyond his actual ability. I do see the domestic front going in very similar directions to the Nixon years, however it might be less successful without a Republican President acquiescing to a democratic congress. He'd likely have more in his way.
I also don't see RFK as anywhere near Nixon's level in the terms of foreign relations. Say what you want about Nixon, and love or hate him, his intelligence and ability to spin a multitude of plates at once hasn't been matched since.
With Vietnam, I have a hard time seeing RFK having much better luck, we might leave a few years early if he abandons south vietnam, but he isn't going to do a day 1 withdrawal. And we certainly aren't going to see a RFK going to China.
RFK wasn't a paragon of virtue either. He was suspected of having affairs, but not to the degree or openess of Jack. And as AG, he ordered wiretaps and surveillance that can easily be argued as less than ethical,
I don't get how he would not be able to work well in a democratic controlled congress, he was very left wing and his own brother was the senate majority whip, if anything i suspect he would do somewhat better in congress then nixon did. Although I do agree he isn't going to do well compared to nixon in forine affairs.
If I recall correctly, Carter had a supermajority in both houses, and JFK also had majorities in Congress. Neither were able to do much with it.
Didn't Carter have an almost entirely different set of prerogatives than the Democrats in Congress though?
It would differ so much from Nixon, I'm surprised by some of the answers in this thread saying otherwise. I'm going to try my hand at a mini-TL on a few major differences I could plausibly see occuring.
Robert Kennedy would push very hard for constant and continued funding of NASA, with huge potential impacts. The Moon Landing was basically the easiest political slam dunk in Presidential history. It will be even moreso here. In this TL the slam was thrown to Robert by his tragic, darling, forever young and handsome brother, the late President John F. Kennedy.
Robert Kennedy is a smart politician whether you agree with his positions or not. He is also incredibly media savvy. He will firmly plant a huge portion of his Presidency and legacy and most importantly the "Kennedy name" into the Space Age. NASA will be having innumerable OTL cancelled projects funded in it's future which could have huge knock on effects. Short-term RFK will press for higher budgets (and more importantly, more photo-ops, discoveries, and positive buzz) for NASA at every opportunity. I would expect NASAs budget to increase significantly every year of his Presidency because of this mutually beneficial relationship.
Vietnam will look very different. RFK will not escalate to Laos/Cambodia. Would he take a hard-line, commit more troops, bungle it just as bad? I'd doubt it. Nixon was independent and had his own strategy but he mostly followed the generals/Kissingers bad advice. Vietnam will likely have a peace conference sooner. RFK will want Vietnam to be associated with the Johnson Administration as much as possible. He will attempt take all the credit for the peace and none of the blame for the war. A sizable force of U.S. advisors and special forces stay on after the full withdrawal. A continued air campaign and financial/military aid for South Vietnam is also provided for. Depends on butterflies but full withdrawal likely happens in late '71 or early '72. Again, this is just good political optics. Getting most soldiers home before Christmas would be a huge boon to RFK and the Democrats in the upcoming election. Whether Vietnam fares better than OTL will be a question for after the election which is how President Kennedy would like it.
For now he can run on peace, Space, and his signature domestic accomplishment, single-payer health-care. The latter two are both personally sweet to the President considering how instrumental both his brothers, John and Ted, were in their respective creations.
So what if you are the voter here? What would you do in '72.? The Kennedy media machine is splashing the pictures of President Kennedy triumphantly signing single payer health-care law on the Resolute Desk. Ted is beaming, teeth as white as the Oval office, standing just off to the side. What a triumph for family and America! Something that you can easily sell to voters. All of this captured on the most modern cameras and broadcasted into the exploding medium of cable news and television. The still relevant newspapers are already buzzing about Ted's future. A third Kennedy in '76? Could the country survive such audacity? Was 3 Kennedy Presidents just the right amount of absurd? Articles like that are front page right next to ones waxing poetic on how Jack's spirit was assuredly at the signing as well. Or how it was felt during the Moon Landing. Or the official peace conference in Paris (Jackie reluctantly agreed to make an appearance even, if only to help distance her late husband's name from the war and onto the peace). Or whenever the voters heartstrings need an appropriate tug. Could this momentum turn the White House and Congress into a Kennedy family tree? Has it already?
I'm not sure how much this matters but Nixon was the last President to have an all-white/man cabinet. RFK likely has some integration on his cabinet, could maybe even be an important one if it polls well in the right places. Just another easy layup for President Kennedy and another history defining photograph he gets to be in.
Honestly, who is the poor Bob Dole who gets to go head to head with that in November? I'm not sure who it would be but I pity them. I also feel really bad for Nixon here, he probably can't even look at the letter K anymore. But he never has to be known as the only President to resign so maybe his ending is happier? LBJ gets the John Adams treatment. He probably goes out more or less as cranky as he did in our time.
Five SCOTUS seats came up in the 8 years Nixon was elected to. I won't get into the weeds here since this is already getting really long. But that will have ENORMOUS effects on the history of these altered United States.
Without Watergate and a different Commander-in-Chief will South Vietnam last until RFK is retired? What role would China play in this world? The Soviets? No drug war? How does the GOP come back from this? No Chilean coup-Pinochet never comes to power? Will K-Mart beat out Walmart due to K positive butterflies? So many butterflies of different events and their respective changes to the timelines! You can almost smell the copper if you think about it. You can disagree with everything else I've said, but c'mon it would be completely different.
TL;DR: Alot Much.
Robert Kennedy would push very hard for constant and continued funding of NASA, with huge potential impacts. The Moon Landing was basically the easiest political slam dunk in Presidential history. It will be even moreso here. In this TL the slam was thrown to Robert by his tragic, darling, forever young and handsome brother, the late President John F. Kennedy.
Robert Kennedy is a smart politician whether you agree with his positions or not. He is also incredibly media savvy. He will firmly plant a huge portion of his Presidency and legacy and most importantly the "Kennedy name" into the Space Age. NASA will be having innumerable OTL cancelled projects funded in it's future which could have huge knock on effects. Short-term RFK will press for higher budgets (and more importantly, more photo-ops, discoveries, and positive buzz) for NASA at every opportunity. I would expect NASAs budget to increase significantly every year of his Presidency because of this mutually beneficial relationship.
Vietnam will look very different. RFK will not escalate to Laos/Cambodia. Would he take a hard-line, commit more troops, bungle it just as bad? I'd doubt it. Nixon was independent and had his own strategy but he mostly followed the generals/Kissingers bad advice. Vietnam will likely have a peace conference sooner. RFK will want Vietnam to be associated with the Johnson Administration as much as possible. He will attempt take all the credit for the peace and none of the blame for the war. A sizable force of U.S. advisors and special forces stay on after the full withdrawal. A continued air campaign and financial/military aid for South Vietnam is also provided for. Depends on butterflies but full withdrawal likely happens in late '71 or early '72. Again, this is just good political optics. Getting most soldiers home before Christmas would be a huge boon to RFK and the Democrats in the upcoming election. Whether Vietnam fares better than OTL will be a question for after the election which is how President Kennedy would like it.
For now he can run on peace, Space, and his signature domestic accomplishment, single-payer health-care. The latter two are both personally sweet to the President considering how instrumental both his brothers, John and Ted, were in their respective creations.
So what if you are the voter here? What would you do in '72.? The Kennedy media machine is splashing the pictures of President Kennedy triumphantly signing single payer health-care law on the Resolute Desk. Ted is beaming, teeth as white as the Oval office, standing just off to the side. What a triumph for family and America! Something that you can easily sell to voters. All of this captured on the most modern cameras and broadcasted into the exploding medium of cable news and television. The still relevant newspapers are already buzzing about Ted's future. A third Kennedy in '76? Could the country survive such audacity? Was 3 Kennedy Presidents just the right amount of absurd? Articles like that are front page right next to ones waxing poetic on how Jack's spirit was assuredly at the signing as well. Or how it was felt during the Moon Landing. Or the official peace conference in Paris (Jackie reluctantly agreed to make an appearance even, if only to help distance her late husband's name from the war and onto the peace). Or whenever the voters heartstrings need an appropriate tug. Could this momentum turn the White House and Congress into a Kennedy family tree? Has it already?
I'm not sure how much this matters but Nixon was the last President to have an all-white/man cabinet. RFK likely has some integration on his cabinet, could maybe even be an important one if it polls well in the right places. Just another easy layup for President Kennedy and another history defining photograph he gets to be in.
Honestly, who is the poor Bob Dole who gets to go head to head with that in November? I'm not sure who it would be but I pity them. I also feel really bad for Nixon here, he probably can't even look at the letter K anymore. But he never has to be known as the only President to resign so maybe his ending is happier? LBJ gets the John Adams treatment. He probably goes out more or less as cranky as he did in our time.
Five SCOTUS seats came up in the 8 years Nixon was elected to. I won't get into the weeds here since this is already getting really long. But that will have ENORMOUS effects on the history of these altered United States.
Without Watergate and a different Commander-in-Chief will South Vietnam last until RFK is retired? What role would China play in this world? The Soviets? No drug war? How does the GOP come back from this? No Chilean coup-Pinochet never comes to power? Will K-Mart beat out Walmart due to K positive butterflies? So many butterflies of different events and their respective changes to the timelines! You can almost smell the copper if you think about it. You can disagree with everything else I've said, but c'mon it would be completely different.
TL;DR: Alot Much.
dcharles
Banned
Yes. And he didn't have decades of Washington connections and years in Congress to get any of those accomplished. Bobby did.
That wasn't really the reason why the relations where as bad as they were. Ive said it before on here, but I would recommend Chris Matthews "Hardball" on this topic. He worked in the Carter White House and then for speaker Tip O'Neill, so he definitely knows what he's talking about. Basically Carter refused to do any of the typical things that presidents would do when trying to woo congress. He got rid of the yacht for one example.
Thing is that it nixon wasn't anti space, nether was ford or Carter, rangon and especially Bush were pro space, same with Bush Jr and Obama so why did it take untill Trump of all people for space to start moveing forward? Because congress is what deseseds if space moves forward not the president and I can't see Kennedy doing any better then any other president at getting congress to spend anything in space then any other president was.
Also I don't think Kennedy was going for single player heath care, it was more subsidized employer type health care (which was going to have a unpopular payroll tax to pay for it)
Also I have a hard time seeing the hard core cold warrior not get involved in South America.
I just listened to the audiobook "The Last Days of Camelot" (excellent) and yes, that certainly accounts for quite a bit of it, but Carter also wanted to reign in spending and was too conservative for them. He was not a liberal by their definition and they disagreed on how to pursue healthcare and his desire to reform welfare.
Bobby Kennedy certainly gets overpraised as a progressive. In his heart, he's closer to a Third Way-er, but it's hard to imagine he can't work with them to compromise on the issues of the day, which is to say he'll be more successful than Jimmy Carter at pulling his party to the center.
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What happens to the economy going into 1972? He's not going to follow Nixon's economy path but he's still going to inherit a lot of deficits from Vietnam and The Great Society. How bad does it get? Can he kick it down the road past 1973? Is there a "Bobby Shock?"
Quick aside, check out this remarkable article about the last days of Lyndon Johnson, one quote in particular: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1973/07/the-last-days-of-the-president/376281/
Johnson had decidedly mixed emotions about his successor. He was puzzled by Nixon's cold style ("Imagine not inviting one member of Congress to Tricia's wedding. If you don't respect them, they won't respect you") and aghast at some of Nixon's domestic policies. Shortly after leaving the White House, he remarked to a Texas businessman: "When I took over the presidency, Jack Kennedy had left me a stock market of 711. When I left the White House, it was over 900. Now look at it. That's what happens when the Republicans take over—not only Nixon, but any of them. They simply don't know how to manage the economy. They're so busy operating the trickle-down theory, giving the richest corporations the biggest break, that the whole thing goes to hell in a handbasket." Amused staffers recall that on the trip back to Texas aboard Air Force One, Johnson went up and down the aisles giving financial advice: "Keep all your money in cash," he urged. "Nixon will have us in an inflationary recession before his first year is over."
dcharles
Banned
This is a very long article, but I thought that anyone who was participating in this discussion might find it of interest. I know I did.
The Inclusive Populism of Robert F. Kennedy
The Inclusive Populism of Robert F. Kennedy