How bad would WAllied casualties be if the Reich defeated the USSR?

[trajen777]

it really comes down to the impact on the the newer tech. How does the Type XXI impact the convoys and reduce supply, new units, additional equipment? If it does then the air war is diminished vs the Germans. Then what impact does Wasserfall (ground to air missile), air to air guided missiles, R4M (bulk air to air missile), and the stream of fighter jets impact the air war. If you diminish the bomber attacks then production would increase allowing for better technology. The V1 - V2 etc would allow for attacks with no loss of crew as would more targeted attacks with Fritz x guided units. Anyway until Nuclear weapons are on the scene i think the Nazis would be very effective at killing significantly more allied soldiers.

 

[mack8]

No they can't throw more troops into Africa. The issue is that even with the OTL sized combat elements (under half a million) the Axis simply could not supply them well, as they could not offload freighters fast enough at the limited ports they controlled

As for attacking through the Caucuses, logistics suck and the terrain is such that the defender is strongly favored, plus with the USSR out the Middle East is not essential to the WAllied war effort save the Suez canal, lots of space to trade for time and stretch out axis logistics

I have to disagree, just imagine the efforts spent on Stalingrad rerouted to supply Africa Korps, which in this TL might well become an Africa Armee. Also imo certainly Malta WILL fall in 1942, doesn't matter how many troops the germans and italians will lose taking it, it will be only a pinprick compared to the forces available, and that will remove a large part of the losses caused to the german and italian ressuply effort. In the air, Luftwaffe redeployment would easily assure parity in numbers, and given the still superior german aircraft at this time to what the US and UK have, things will go badly in the air for them.

As to ME, let's not forget that US and UK still have a finite quantity of troops and materials, with an effort focused in North Africa, THEY will be pressed to find the troops and gear to mount a defence of ME, while it may be true that losing ME might not be catastrophic for them, it will give the germans access to yet more oil, and probably they will actually take the Suez canal as well. The germans might face problems supplying their forces, but certainly they'll manage to keep at least part of their available forces supplied, surely with all the resources and slave manpower available they'll try to build and extend roads and railways, use everything available in the Black Sea to supply their troops, air transport etc.

 

[mack8]

Germany actually wasn't that far ahead. The British got the Meteor in service about 3 months after the 262 entered service. US had the P-80 coming in early '45 and the British the Vampire in late '45 (vampire lasted to '66 in service, 262 '51). US and UK had Napkinwaffe as well, the difference was they were doing well enough not to curtail the R&D process

Against large scale air raids I don't think the Germans ever did better than getting 33% of bombers. Plenty for making it too expensive to continue conventional bombing. Nukes, those are a different story, mix nukes in with the conventional bombers (by December should have over a dozen available) and hey can get through

The German nuclear program was a trainwreck, and their reactor design was almost guaranteed to meltdown in short order, killing their best nuclear scientists

Given the level of popular support for the war in the US, casualties at a rate the US suffered during the ACW or greater would be acceptable

With more and better raw materials, not only the Me-262 will have better engines, and get to be built in huge quantities well before any of the US/UK designs even reach the frontline in numbers (Meteor F3 was inferior anyway and i don't think the P-80A would be terribly good either, and anyway, like mentioned above, they will only start counting in an invasion because of their short range), but also instead of the OTL Jagernotprogram, they might go straight to an advanced swept wing fighter like the Ta-183 and similar designs (because they would be not under the OTL great pressure for something, anything cheap and simple to put in the air which resulted in the He-162) so by the time the Meteor and P-80 and Vampire appear in numbers, they will have to face THESE, sort-of a MiG-15 but 2 years early. The P-80 and Meteor didn't do well against the MiG-15 in Korea.

PS: The americans will very likely bring the B-29 in Europe to attack targets deep in the east, but the thing is, because of it's higher speeds it's paradoxically a better target for the new jets, again this was proven in Korea. Would actually make the Me-163 more useful that it was OTL, against the faster and higher flying B-29, especially when also fitted with R4M rockets.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I have to disagree, just imagine the efforts spent on Stalingrad rerouted to supply Africa Korps, which in this TL might well become an Africa Armee. Also imo certainly Malta WILL fall in 1942, doesn't matter how many troops the germans and italians will lose taking it, it will be only a pinprick compared to the forces available, and that will remove a large part of the losses caused to the german and italian ressuply effort. In the air, Luftwaffe redeployment would easily assure parity in numbers, and given the still superior german aircraft at this time to what the US and UK have, things will go badly in the air for them.

As to ME, let's not forget that US and UK still have a finite quantity of troops and materials, with an effort focused in North Africa, THEY will be pressed to find the troops and gear to mount a defence of ME, while it may be true that losing ME might not be catastrophic for them, it will give the germans access to yet more oil, and probably they will actually take the Suez canal as well. The germans might face problems supplying their forces, but certainly they'll manage to keep at least part of their available forces supplied, surely with all the resources and slave manpower available they'll try to build and extend roads and railways, use everything available in the Black Sea to supply their troops, air transport etc.

There was Panzer Army Afrika in January 1942 OTL, later redisignated German-Italian Panzer Army and Army Group Afrika. OTL the Stalingrad effort got on its best day 262 tons of supplies (Average was 85 tons a day), the Axis in Afrika was getting 1500 tons a day through Tobruk alone

Road and rail building takes time, lots of time, especially in rough terrain, like the Caucuses. This is a matter of many months, if not years to build up the logistics in the Caucuses to support overwhelming force, by which point there are enough WAllied forces

With more and better raw materials, not only the Me-262 will have better engines, and get to be built in huge quantities well before any of the US/UK designs even reach the frontline in numbers (Meteor F3 was inferior anyway and i don't think the P-80A would be terribly good either, and anyway, like mentioned above, they will only start counting in an invasion because of their short range), but also instead of the OTL Jagernotprogram, they might go straight to an advanced swept wing fighter like the Ta-183 and similar designs (because they would be not under the OTL great pressure for something, anything cheap and simple to put in the air which resulted in the He-162) so by the time the Meteor and P-80 and Vampire appear in numbers, they will have to face THESE, sort-of a MiG-15 but 2 years early. The P-80 and Meteor didn't do well against the MiG-15 in Korea.

PS: The americans will very likely bring the B-29 in Europe to attack targets deep in the east, but the thing is, because of it's higher speeds it's paradoxically a better target for the new jets, again this was proven in Korea. Would actually make the Me-163 more useful that it was OTL, against the faster and higher flying B-29, especially when also fitted with R4M rockets.

262 would have better engines, but that's mainly a logistics saver. It maybe has a 3 month advantage over the Meteor. OTL Allied jets were reserved for home defense due to their thirst and lack of need, if needed they could be deployed to the front to maintain air superiority

The Ta-183 essentially did get built OTL, by Argentina. It took 10 years to go from first flight to Service, Germans might do better, but they still will take time. More advanced jets take time to debug. The Vampire flew in early 43, no German jet fighter besides the ME 262, the HE-280 (inferior to the 262 and cancelled), HE-162 (flew in Jan '44, emergency design, good despite that but not easy to fly and lightly armed, plus had issues) and the Go-229 (only as Glider, summer of '44, likely to prove problematic in service due to issues with flying wings) actually flew, Vampire is almost certain to beat any super high performance jet into service

What made the Mig-15 so nasty was the engine, which was a British design. Note that despite capturing plenty of different German engines the USSR chose to copy a British engine instead, the Nene which entered production October '44

 

[John Dusk]

I'm surprised the majority voted for "5x or more what they suffered IOTL."

That's almost as many votes as all other options combined.

 

[KACKO]

I'm surprised the majority voted for "5x or more what they suffered IOTL."

That's almost as many votes as all other options combined.

Why not? If Soviets lost and wallies went for it anyway 5x losses was minimum we could vote for. But really maybe if losses were so high people at home woul protests. That's why L-L was cheap investment. Soviets paid for it wit blood, 2/3 of wehrmacht and huge part of lw was tied at the east. Wallies had relatively satisfied citizens at home and at the end even git some cash for it back. If Soviets didn't pay a dime back, L-L would still be one of the best investment wallies could make.

 

[Salem_Saberhagen]

Germany actually wasn't that far ahead. The British got the Meteor in service about 3 months after the 262 entered service. US had the P-80 coming in early '45 and the British the Vampire in late '45 (vampire lasted to '66 in service, 262 '51). US and UK had Napkinwaffe as well, the difference was they were doing well enough not to curtail the R&D process

Against large scale air raids I don't think the Germans ever did better than getting 33% of bombers. Plenty for making it too expensive to continue conventional bombing. Nukes, those are a different story, mix nukes in with the conventional bombers (by December should have over a dozen available) and hey can get through

The German nuclear program was a trainwreck, and their reactor design was almost guaranteed to meltdown in short order, killing their best nuclear scientists

Given the level of popular support for the war in the US, casualties at a rate the US suffered during the ACW or greater would be acceptable

I disagree.
Of only 300 Me-262s that were built, they scored 542 kills, and this was during 1945 when Germany was basically cornered, facing all sorts of supply shortages, most Me-262s were basically bombed on the runways since the Allies had already achieved air dominance by then. But the Me-262s was faster and more heavily armed than any Allied fighter, including the British jet-powered Gloster-Meteor. Only about 100 Me-262 were destroyed on the air.

If the Schwaibe had been mass-produced and given time enough for pilot training and a proper introduction they would have been a force to be reckoned with. The Allies simply had nothing to counter it.
And again, this is not even taking into account other cutting edge designs like the Dornier Do 335, Ta-183, the Dornier Do P.256 Nightfighter, the Messerschmitt Me P.1101, and of course the Horten 229 which even had limited stealth capabilities more than enough to fool the radars of those times. Aeronautics and rocketry were the two areas on which Hitler's wunderwaffe were truly wondrous and would have been a force to be reckoned with if they had entered into mass production. In OTL most of these prototypes either never flew or made their first flight by late 1944-1945 when there were massive shortages of raw materials, engineers and pilots, but in a situation on which the war lasted until at least 1946 and Germany had all the resources of a defeated USSR and one less front to contend with it is easy to imagine some of them entering mass production along with the Me-262.

You may be correct on the German nuclear program though, but with enough time these problems were fixable. And once both powers had nuclear weapons at their disposal a Cold War is all but guaranteed.

Ta-183

Messerschmitt Me P.1101

Ho-229

If Germany makes it into 1946 with its core regions intact there is no way I see the Allies winning the air war.
The question is whether the Allies can manage to open a Western Front with Germany free from the Soviet threat devoting all its military resources on defending the North Atlantic coasts and the Mediterranean before mid 1946, that is hard to say.

 

[John Dusk]

snip

I agree with you it's just that not everyone has the same opinion on how powerful the Wehrmacht/Reich would be if they defeated the USSR.

 

[mack8]

I disagree.
Of only 300 Me-262s that were built, they scored 542 kills, and this was during 1945 when Germany was basically cornered, facing all sorts of supply shortages, most Me-262s were basically bombed on the runways since the Allies had already achieved air dominance by then. But the Me-262s was faster and more heavily armed than any Allied fighter, including the British jet-powered Gloster-Meteor. Only about 100 Me-262 were destroyed on the air.

If the Schwaibe had been mass-produced and given time enough for pilot training and a proper introduction they would have been a force to be reckoned with. The Allies simply had nothing to counter it.
And again, this is not even taking into account other cutting edge designs like the Dornier Do 335, Ta-183, the Dornier Do P.256 Nightfighter, the Messerschmitt Me P.1101, and of course the Horten 229 which even had limited stealth capabilities more than enough to fool the radars of those times. Aeronautics and rocketry were the two areas on which Hitler's wunderwaffe were truly wondrous and would have been a force to be reckoned with if they had entered into mass production. In OTL most of these prototypes either never flew or made their first flight by late 1944-1945 when there were massive shortages of raw materials, engineers and pilots, but in a situation on which the war lasted until at least 1946 and Germany had all the resources of a defeated USSR and one less front to contend with it is easy to imagine some of them entering mass production along with the Me-262.

Well, actually there were about 1400 Me-262 built, lacking good metals for the engines and above all fuel. Many were destroyed on the ground, but yeah when they had a chance to fight, they were deadly.
In this TL, they probably get to built 1000 or more a MONTH as they planned in 1945, this getting to be their main bomber destroyer during the day. The Ar-234 would be equally deadly at night as will the Me-262B. The Jumo and BMW engines will of course be continually improved, so they'll get steadily more power. Major change imo would be that instead of He-162 they'll built a swept wing transonic fighter like Ta-183, but probably metalic, and not necessarily with the HeS-011 engine, an uprated BMW or Jumo would initially do until they fix/redesign the 011 and doesn't have to be the Ta-183 actually, might be a Messerschmitt or Blohm& Voss design etc., this thing will enter service in 1945. They could also built later in 1945 an even cheper variation of that out of wood, sort of like the He-162 conception but a better machine to fly and fight in. There were also improved Me-262 projects with ever increasing Mach numbers, so probably they will be next to enter production. Meanwhile the latest piston engined day and night fighters will supplement these, like Ta-152 and variants, Ju-388, Do-335 and so on. The Ho-229 and Ju-287 may or may not be deemed suitable for service, they could change the Ju-287 for a normal swept wing, add a couple of tails on the Hortens etc. Not sure if they'd continue the rocket fighters program like the Me-163/263 or even Ba-349, R4M rockets will give them a new life imo. Finally, there will be SAMs, guided and unguided types that would gradually gain more and more importance in the defence in 1945, and also guided air to air missiles, probably proximity fuses, new ground and air intercept radars and on and on and on.
The germans were planning something like 5000 fighters a month in 1945, and all in all it sounds to me like the bombers will be masscared when venturing over the continent, there will be thousands of them indeed and thousands of escorts, but also there will be thousands of german interceptors and ground defences.

 

[Salem_Saberhagen]

Well, actually there were about 1400 Me-262 built

I misquoted an article claiming 300 (actually 200) were operational at any single time, my bad. Still only 100 were destroyed on the air.

Anyway I agree with your post wholeheartedly, people extrapolate from the Allied success on the Western Front in 1944-45 but Germany was almost beaten and exhausted by then, with critical shortages in all industries and infraestructure destroyed from strategic bombing. A Luftwaffe in a situation where Germany managed to defeat the Soviet Union on the other hand would have been a force to be reckoned with,

 

[John Dusk]

A Luftwaffe in a situation where Germany managed to defeat the Soviet Union on the other hand would have been a force to be reckoned with.

Same goes for the Heer/Waffen SS.

 

[PlasmaTorch]

I put 3x. No offense to Calbear but I think he was being overoptimistic about German abilities to check the Wallies after a sustained strategic air war. Likely the Allies go for the periphery and grind Germany down in the air before going the Mediterranean route to seize something in the Mediterranean from which to extend the air war and fight a sustained war of attrition, which they will win eventually just based on numbers and production. The Germans have to keep 1.5-2 million men in the East for years, so that is going to be a problem and bleeding sore. Even if demobbing the planned 50 divisions worth of men Germany's got problems as the Allies can just sit back, blockade the continent, and dominate them in the air war, while seizing stepping stones so Germany and allies have to spread themselves thin. Eventually they will be able to invade somewhere, but they will bomb Germany a ridiculous amount and there won't be that much released from the East to really help against that; if Hitler does bring a lot of bomber back he'll probably waste them in air attack on Britain. The invasion may or may not come until after Atomic bombs are dropped, but it will succeed when it does happen and a very bloody campaign to liberate France will wreck the country and be a blood bath for both sides, probably lasting a year or more. But in the end Allied strategic bombing will ensure the Germans are firepowered to death. Allies take much heavier losses, but not nearly as many as you think because of their firepower advantage.

That seems very speculative, given that the strategic bombing done by the western allies took years of trial and error before it could build up to major effect. In 1942, the largest number of bombs dropped was 6845 tons in june. In 1943, the largest number of bombs dropped was 24,148 tons in august. In 1944, the largest number of bombs dropped was 111,471 tons in june. The 'big week' campaign that killed so many german pilots didn't happen until late february 1944. And the synthetic fuel plants weren't being significantly affected until around may 1944 onwards. If the nazis have subdued the soviet union by 1942, then you are talking about a delay of two years until the strategic bombing takes real effect.

Thats a long time to wait. Most important is that the allies air campaign would run into more problems than it did in real life, because the germans have more troops and material available to stop them. Thousands of additional flak guns and hundreds of fighters would be free to move to the west. And since they won't have to worry about losing territory and key resources to the russians (as happened in the eastern front during 1943-44), their equipment won't suffer from the material shortages it otherwise would have. This affected everything from the panther tank to the Me 262 fighter. Germany will be in a much better position to fend off any attacks by the western allies, whether they come from the air or land.

Underestimate. To begin with, the number of Axis troops on the Eastern Front at it's narrowest in late-'44 was around twice the number in the west. Then you count the something like 3-4 million German troops the Soviets killed or captured in the course of '41-'44. And those lost personnel were much better trained then what the Germans were fielding by the time the WAllies forged ashore.

A bit more complicated. In the short term, terror does work at killing resistance but in the longer-term it does nothing to ensure loyalty and breeds much resentment that is let loose the moment the occupier lets up the boot. What that means is that the Germans are either forced to follow through on wiping out the Russians completely and thereby deprive themselves of vital slave labor, maintain financially ruinous occupation forces until their economy collapses, or try to hand them over to local collaborators who'll have their throats slit the day after the German troops leave for home. In any of these cases, the Nazi fantasy of the East being a free source of raw materials would remain a fantasy.

Very true. Even after the cessation of hostilities, occupying the east would continue to be a large drain on manpower for the germans. Not as bad as when they had to fight a functioning soviet union, obviously, but still alot... They might well decide to abandon their odious plans of genocide, delay or limit colonization of eastern europe, and put these nations in the hands of a puppet government. Germany can benefit from taking on the role of a landlord, and get regular shipments of coal, wood, iron, rubber, oil, etc without the complications of generalplan ost. If the nazis can refrain from their pseudo-scientific race theorys which compel them to enslave and murder slavs, this situation could be more stable than the current U.S. occupation of afghanistan and iraq. (Unlike the americans, at least, the germans have no interest in expensive nation building)

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Very true. Even after the cessation of hostilities, occupying the east would continue to be a large drain on manpower for the germans. Not as bad as when they had to fight a functioning soviet union, obviously, but still alot... They might well decide to abandon their odious plans of genocide, delay or limit colonization of eastern europe, and put these nations in the hands of a puppet government. Germany can benefit from taking on the role of a landlord, and get regular shipments of coal, wood, iron, rubber, oil, etc without the complications of generalplan ost. If the nazis can refrain from their pseudo-scientific race theorys which compel them to enslave and murder slavs, this situation could be more stable than the current U.S. occupation of afghanistan and iraq. (Unlike the americans, at least, the germans have no interest in expensive nation building)

That would be the "try to hand them over to local collaborators who'll have their throats slit the day after the German troops leave for home". The end result isn't at all a network of puppet states providing the Germans with raw materials. Quite the opposite, really. And it's rather too late to ask the Nazis to avoid being Nazis. They already burned those bridges.

 

[PlasmaTorch]

That would be the "try to hand them over to local collaborators who'll have their throats slit the day after the German troops leave for home". The end result isn't at all a network of puppet states providing the Germans with raw materials. Quite the opposite, really. And it's rather too late to ask the Nazis to avoid being Nazis. They already burned those bridges.

Question: How many slavs had the nazis killed by the end of 1941? As in, intentionally killed through death camps and death squads, rather than as collateral damage from the war? The situation may not be irreparable by 1942. Alot of the locals in latvia, estonia, lithuania, and ukraine were initially enthusiastic towards the nazis, who 'liberated' them from the soviets. They were never enthusiastic towards the russians, due to non-triffling things like the holodomor.

 

[John Dusk]

@sloreck, @CalBear what are your thoughts on the OP?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

@sloreck, @CalBear what are your thoughts on the OP?

Do you need Calbear's weigh in? He did write an entire TL about just this scenario.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I disagree.
Of only 300 Me-262s that were built, they scored 542 kills, and this was during 1945 when Germany was basically cornered, facing all sorts of supply shortages, most Me-262s were basically bombed on the runways since the Allies had already achieved air dominance by then. But the Me-262s was faster and more heavily armed than any Allied fighter, including the British jet-powered Gloster-Meteor. Only about 100 Me-262 were destroyed on the air.

If the Schwaibe had been mass-produced and given time enough for pilot training and a proper introduction they would have been a force to be reckoned with. The Allies simply had nothing to counter it.
And again, this is not even taking into account other cutting edge designs like the Dornier Do 335, Ta-183, the Dornier Do P.256 Nightfighter, the Messerschmitt Me P.1101, and of course the Horten 229 which even had limited stealth capabilities more than enough to fool the radars of those times. Aeronautics and rocketry were the two areas on which Hitler's wunderwaffe were truly wondrous and would have been a force to be reckoned with if they had entered into mass production. In OTL most of these prototypes either never flew or made their first flight by late 1944-1945 when there were massive shortages of raw materials, engineers and pilots, but in a situation on which the war lasted until at least 1946 and Germany had all the resources of a defeated USSR and one less front to contend with it is easy to imagine some of them entering mass production along with the Me-262.

You may be correct on the German nuclear program though, but with enough time these problems were fixable. And once both powers had nuclear weapons at their disposal a Cold War is all but guaranteed.

Ta-183

Messerschmitt Me P.1101

Ho-229

If Germany makes it into 1946 with its core regions intact there is no way I see the Allies winning the air war.
The question is whether the Allies can manage to open a Western Front with Germany free from the Soviet threat devoting all its military resources on defending the North Atlantic coasts and the Mediterranean before mid 1946, that is hard to say.

The problem with most of these designs is that they are napkinwaffe. We don't know how they would actually perform, we don't know how long they would take to work out the bugs (cept maybe the Ta-183, it essentially got built postwar by Argentina, took 10 years to work out the bugs). We know that the allies would with peacetime priority get the Vampire in service '46 and Fury and Thunderjet in '47, and we know the specs for those, by the time Germany gets around to mass producing a 262 replacement the Vampire is in mass production

The 229 is a tailless flying wing, those are notoriously difficult to fly absent fly by wire. Also it had some stealth capability, but only enough to cut detection range by ~40%

Once late summer 1945 shows up the airwar becomes unwinnable for Nazi Germany, they have to stop every single bomber, because the Allies will start mixing in nukes, and in terms of mass attacks they never got better than 33% (I think 10% was enough to make conventional bombing cost ineffective), the Soviets against B-29's in the early 1950's could not even manage that much.

By enough time it is years and years, Germany did not have one program, it had something like 20 and the most successful one was run by the post office. 1950 at the earliest for a nuclear program,

 

[KarneeKarnay]

To me its x4 depending on when the USSR gives the ghost. If it's after D-Day then probably x4. If it's before then 5x. Even without the USSR, Germany would have been spread to the breaking point just holding what they had. Even resorting to slave divisions, the real problem is that Germany couldn't keep up with the allied bombing campaign. By D-Day the Allies were making strikes against the industry complexes in the heart of Germany. Even with the extra factories, bringing that all together under the mess that was Nazi leadership, would have taken a mammoth effort.

Then you have to take into account the German High Commands fetish for uber weapons. Maybe with the USSR gone, cooler head prevail, but I think Hitler was far too unstable to think straight.

 

[Guaro]

I'm losing myself a bit, what's exactly the situation of germany at this point and what exactly the aim of the nukes in ITTL? Civilian objective to break the morale? Military to cripple germany's military production? An exibition of power? Wiki says that USA had circa 300 nukes by 1950, do you think they wuold have tried to carpet bombing? Whold have they tryed befor on japan ? Civilian target? Military target? Would they risk to lose some nukes to the german? With the risk of having london nuked? Or giving them the possibility to reverse engineer the nukes? Also what do you think about defection from the USA to germany of nuclear scientis seeing that the USA wanted to win the war by caroet bombing and massmurdering civilian population?

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I'm losing myself a bit, what's exactly the situation of germany at this point and what exactly the aim of the nukes in ITTL? Civilian objective to break the morale? Military to cripple germany's military production? An exibition of power? Wiki says that USA had circa 300 nukes by 1950, do you think they wuold have tried to carpet bombing? Whold have they tryed befor on japan ? Civilian target? Military target? Would they risk to lose some nukes to the german? With the risk of having london nuked? Or giving them the possibility to reverse engineer the nukes? Also what do you think about defection from the USA to germany of nuclear scientis seeing that the USA wanted to win the war by caroet bombing and massmurdering civilian population?

Unlikely the war would last long enough to put London in danger of nukes, gas yeah, but Germans were really behind on nukes. Reverse engineering a nuke is unlikely, you may learn how the bomb is designed, if it survives intact and doesn't fizzle or hit the ground hard and break, but it tells you almost nothing about how to make the fissile material, separate it out and machine it with incredible precision (Uranium is not easy to machine, hard, tendency to shatter and to catch on fire, and Plutonium is worse)

German intel sucked, such defections are unlikely to succeed. Furthermore almost everybody was fine with nuking Germany, it was Japan that raised dissent