Germans introduce V1 in 1940

[Gunnarnz]

I'm on record as saying that the V1 was one of Germany's best weapons, certainly worth the effort they put into it. With a bit more development it could have been even more useful (although still not a war winner by itself).
All that being said, I'm surprised that in this thread there seems to be an assumption that the only likely British response is to ask for surrender. Personally, I think other things are much more likely. If TTL's V1s are accurate and effective, then more effort is likely to be put into intercepting them or interdicting their launch sites. We might see jet development brought forward to do that, but even IOTL V1s could be intercepted. There might also be more effort to stop German recon efforts - after all, if they can't see where the V1s are going or their effects, it'll be much harder to mount an effective campaign with them. Those are just a couple of examples, though.

What do people think are the likely British responses that DON'T involve surrender?

 

[Post]

What do people think are the likely British responses that DON'T involve surrender?

More barrage balloons along their flightpaths.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Possible British actions.
Assuming V1s targeted on the Greater London area

1) partial evacuation of civilians to safer areas
2) concentration of barrage balloons and heavy AA on the main approach routes.
3) lots of propaganda in the US
4) relocate war production from vulnerable factories in the target zone.
5) emphasis on faster fighters and bombers .

 

[CaptainCalvert]

I'd say that surrender was out of the question while Britain could put up any sort of fight simply because Hitler had repeatedly shown that his word and signature meant nothing. This was a war to the end because he could offer no terms worth accepting.
So what can be done?
Evacuate as many people and as much industry as possible from London.
Bomb the launch sites - possibly using persistent chemical agents if nothing else worked.
Naval bombardment if within range of the coast.
Commando raids, SOE missions.

You have to wonder too what was sacrificed to provide these V1s. Even though they don't use much in terms of strategic materials, they still need factories and workshops, people, fuel, non-strategic materials that have to be mined or harvested and transported, launchers and so on. Germany's economy was severely stretched and had minimal spare capacity anywhere, especially in the 1930s so something is being delayed, cancelled or pushed too hard.
These changes wil manifest somewhere - fewer tanks? Fewer artillery shells? Fewer aircraft? Less winter fuel, wood for gasification, factory workers to make uniforms boots etc? So maybe they do have potential win the war against London, but how does this help if France isn't defeated or Norway can't be taken or the effort to do so breaks the Wehrmacht so it can't then launch Barbarossa?
This isn't saying that earlier V1s aren't interesting - they definitely are - but are they enough to change outcomes despite the other impacts or do the other impacts create unmanageable problems elsewhere.

 

[SunilTanna]

Actual OTL V1 campaign against London (8000 V1s total launched) caused 23,000 casualties and destroyed or damaged over 1 million buildings.

This campaign has the capacity to at least that every month for about 16.5 months in 1940-1941. Maybe more as interception/disruption efforts are not as effective as Otl.

I'm not buying the mustard gas will solve it argument. First off, the British would expect the Germans to retaliate in kind, and the V1s are already hitting London far harder than the RAF can hit Germay in 1940-1941. Second the German military can still operate. Third this idea that gas was a war winning weapon doesnt seem to have convinced allied military leaders during our ww2 - if they had thought gas that effective, i think they'd have used it Tobruk, Anzio, Monte Cassino, Omaha Beach, etc. Where things were touch and go for the allies.

 

[SunilTanna]

How likely would it be for the British to ask for terms in the event of monthly V-1 bombardment? And with no solutions to the flying bombs? I think Germany offered terms after the Fall of France that were quite favorable to the British?

While Churchill would not surrender, what about the British Parliament?

think by early 1941, that's going to be possibility.

There is certainly a faction that will say "we faced down invasion, so we can negotiate with Germany on a more equal basis, and we should, as London is being devastated, and there is no prospect of us stopping the V1s in the foreseeable future - this could go on for years".

Churchill will resist saying that Hitler can't be trusted to stick to any deal, but he could be ousted

 

[Derek Pullem]

Actual OTL V1 campaign against London (8000 V1s total launched) caused 23,000 casualties and destroyed or damaged over 1 million buildings.

This campaign has the capacity to at least that every month for about 16.5 months in 1940-1941. Maybe more as interception/disruption efforts are not as effective as Otl.

I'm not buying the mustard gas will solve it argument. First off, the British would expect the Germans to retaliate in kind, and the V1s are already hitting London far harder than the RAF can hit Germay in 1940-1941. Second the German military can still operate. Third this idea that gas was a war winning weapon doesnt seem to have convinced allied military leaders during our ww2 - if they had thought gas that effective, i think they'd have used it Tobruk, Anzio, Monte Cassino, Omaha Beach, etc. Where things were touch and go for the allies.

That's because the premise of 300-500 launches a day is totally unrealistic. It would require by your own figures the production of 132,000 V1. That's 4 x the number deployed IOTL. it would also need at around 50 million man-hours of labour at the factories or 25,000 man-years. That a not insignificant chunk of German aircraft manufacturing capacity that has been lost at a crucial point in the war. It would also give Bomber Command a better target for their saturation bombing than the ineffective early attacks on German cities.

EDIT Carl Schwamberger said it better.

 

[SunilTanna]

30,000 were produced in1944-1945, of which 8000 were launched at London (which was out of range after bases were over run)

So while 130,000 is probably pushing it, I would think producing 60,000-70,000 over roughly twice as long as period and not being bombed to smithereens is doable. And 80% or 90% might be fired at London.

That's 50,000+ instead of OTL's 8000 at London, with a higher percentage getting through too.

 

[yulzari1]

V1 launch sites are within the range of 11 Group Fighter Command. The heavies will have escorts.

That worked well in daylight for the Luftwaffe IOTL. Until the losses drove them to night attacks and area targets.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

How likely would it be for the British to ask for terms in the event of monthly V-1 bombardment? And with no solutions to the flying bombs? I think Germany offered terms after the Fall of France that were quite favorable to the British?

While Churchill would not surrender, what about the British Parliament?

I'm pretty sure no terms were ever offered OTL. Had they been, there was no reason to accept them (worthless guarantees and treaties are not a good deal) and parliament was in no mood to accept surrender. The mood of parliament may have changed in the face of an unrelenting attack that couldn't be countered, but most predictions of civilian morale collapsing in the face of bombing have been proved wrong then and after (shock and awe anyone?) so there's no certainty of that.
Bear in mind that while London is being attacked, Canadian and American factories are churning out aircraft and bombs, and the Canadians are churning out pilots who will most definitely be visiting the launching sites sooner and the factories later.

 

[kham_coc]

Churchill will resist saying that Hitler can't be trusted to stick to any deal, but he could be ousted

One difference though is that this time it would be the Germans making concessions so if they renege the uk can just restart the blockade.
They would be the ones getting the better deal for PoWs.

 

[DougM]

Germany cant built that many that fast. These things are not free. And while they used less critical materials then say a typical jet or prop engine would they still use fuel, they still use metals they still take up factory floor space, they still take (a LOT) of man hours to build. They still have to be transported to the Launch locations.
The launch locations can be damaged and with the amount you need for this they will be easier to find/destroy.
The Rail lines leading into the general area they launch from will be vaulnersble to repeated bombing runs.

And then we get into the Argument of exactly how effective they were. As I understand it the lack of warning was a huge part of the effectiveness. But I suspect some sort or early warning system will be put together if it nothing but a LOT of observe.

And as noted if these things are that useful then what happens when the US reverse engineers them and Ford and GM build huge Willow Run size factories to mass produce these things? Because any amount that Germany can make the US can more then quadruple in short order. I mean they were tossing out one Liberator an Hour out of just Willowrun.
So if these are going to trash London Europe itself is in big trouble

 

[Post]

One difference though is that this time it would be the Germans making concessions

Hitler making concessions? I find that hard to believe.

 

[Nell_Lucifer]

Hitler making concessions? I find that hard to believe.

He would be forced to. After the Fall of France they expected the British to be amenable to a peace deal, they had no plan on how to deal with Britain and Sealion was considered even by himself a gamble to force a quick peace that would most likely fail.

Hitler in 1940 was a different animal than the one in 1944/45, he was still a political animal that viewed the British favorably and the Soviets as abhorrent.

There's also the War Economic situation that everyone in high positions was aware of, that being, there was no provision for a long war economy.

 

[Rickshaw]

The British has their own V-1, the "Hoopla" a pilotless light aircraft capable of flying the distance to the Ruhr, carrying a 500-1000lb bomb.

They would be able to retaliate in kind against any attack by the Germans.

What has not been considered is that the V-1's used Germany's entire resource of High-Test Peroxide to power it's take-off catapults. Basically there was none left when they were used. No HTP no V-1s.

I can see the British putting more time and effort into the efforts of SOE to find and destroy the V-1 logistics system in France and the low-countries. Much more target attacks to disrupt the efforts of the Germans to mount their attacks.

 

[kham_coc]

Hitler making concessions? I find that hard to believe.

My point is there isn't anything for the uk to concede at thus point. Their only concessions are handing over PoWs (and the Germans have a lot more of them) and ending the blockade. If Germany breaks any deal, the UK can just restart the blockade.

 

[marathag]

What has not been considered is that the V-1's used Germany's entire resource of High-Test Peroxide to power it's take-off catapults. Basically there was none left when they were used. No HTP no V-1s.

That was the preferred OTL German method, since that was 'New and Shiny' and the Mustache loved that

But from fixed bases, they can use old fashioned catapults, like the did for the 1930s Lufthansa Mail Planes

that were a bit heavier than a V1

 

[thaddeus]

I don't think the Germans would go for V1 so early.

Compared to simple bombs, the cost of using V1 is extremely high in 1940.
(in reality, it would have been far too high in 1938-1939, when the V1 would have to be developped if it is to be ready in 1940)

At the times, all the air forces in the world operated under the assumption : "the bomber will always get through"

V1 became justifiable later in the war as the Luftwaffe could no longer afford the casualties rates in their bombers.

agree with this, think a more feasible and likely timeframe would be to supplant the Baedeker Blitz in 1942 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baedeker_Blitz

just IMO, the biggest gain for the German side would be that it eclipses the costly V-2 program, as variants of the V-1 are developed.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Of a target manufacturing goal of 30,000 approximately 10,000 were sent at Britain. Brit records show 2,419 reached London, killing and maiming 24,165 That only 25% reached the intended target was a combination of declining quality control in manufacture, anti air defenses, and deception operations. The Brits used their Double Cross system to feed the V1 management false information on accuracy, resulting in a large number falling on farm land west of London. Since the Double Cross System existed as early as 1941 its likely this would divert a sizable portion away from the target area. If my estimate of 1940-1941 production is remotely close to what might be done. Then between 12,000 & 18,000 V1 launched towards London in 18-20 months is possible. If half of those hit the city thats about 2 or three times the total of OTL At least doubling the number of killed. However those numbers would likely be spread out over 18+ months running the monthly deaths back down to closer OTL.


Belgium or more specifically Antwerp was hit by 2,448 V-1s from October 1944 to March 1945. In that case there was no mass panic of severe decline in morale. While a evacuation of children and non essential persons was partially done the city and port continued to operate as a key logistics hub for the Allied armies.

Then theres this:

And as noted if these things are that useful then what happens when the US reverse engineers them and Ford and GM build huge Willow Run size factories to mass produce these things? Because any amount that Germany can make the US can more then quadruple in short order. I mean they were tossing out one Liberator an Hour out of just Willowrun.
So if these are going to trash London Europe itself is in big trouble

Britain does not have to wait idly by while Hap Arnold makes up his mind on priority for this weapon. Their engineers were perfectly competent and capable of lashing together similar weapons. Those can be ordered up from the US aircraft factories the same as Martlets & Kittyhawks, or Liberators.

 

[Questerr]

The question is asked in another thread on this topic from last year:

Why do the Germans invest in V-1’s prior to 1940? V-1’s are a weapon that would rely on the assumption that Germany can take France but not get Britain to peace out.

That logic flies against all German planning pre-The Battle of France.