General Powell and Friends: A TL

Memorial Held for JFK Jr.

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WASHINGTON DC - President Bill Clinton orders that the flag at the White House and in all public areas be lowered to half-staff.

-New York Times, July 17, 1999




[FONT=&quot]STRAW VOTE TOTALS[/FONT]
-Colin Powell - (35%)
-George W. Bush - 4921 (23%)
-Elizabeth Dole - 3410 (11%)
-Steve Forbes - 2114 (10%)
-Patrick Buchanan - 1719 (7%)
-Lamar Alexander - 1428 (6%)
-Alan Keyes - 1101 (5%)
-Dan Quayle - 916 (2%)
-Orrin Hatch- 558 (1%)

-PBS - August 14, 1999



DES MOINES - The Iowa straw poll, though it drew only 23,685 participants, has jostled the Republican Presidential field and clarified some issues. Former US Army General Colin Powell remains the strong front-runner, but after winning with a smaller margin than previously expected.


-New York Times, August 15, 1999



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DES MOINES - Bill Bradley opens up his campaign headquarters in Iowa this week, contrasting with Gore who opened it nearly 2 months ago. While the Gore campaign may look more impressive and has much better organization, the Bradley campaign has been assembling his own staff of political veterans. Bradley has also been steadily approaching Gore in the polls in Iowa. He has also been recruiting hundreds of volunteers, most of whom joined the campaign through the internet. While Mr. Gore is still the heavy favourite for the nomination, and has an overwhelming lead in most early polls, Mr. Bradley is now viewed as a plausible alternative by the Democratic establishment -- and a contender who, at the very least, will force the Vice President into a costly and possibly bloody primary battle. The clearest sign of the ability of the Bradley campaign is that it has amassed nearly $12 million this year , compared with almost $18 million for the Vice President -- and has spent its resources far more carefully.

-New York Times, August 1, 1999
 
Powell would have to face a social conservative third party.
Enter Pat Buchanan...
Well, Keyes did plan to bolt the Republicans in 2000 if McCain won. Also, Bob Smith might stay away from the Republicans unlike TTL.
If you want to derail Bush, have someone bring up his National Guard Service, or the Eliza May scandal. (And PLEASE, if SC's Republicans decide not to open all then polls, make it an issue!)
 
Gore brings in Clinton


Des Moines - While avoiding him for most of the campaign, Gore held a major rally in Iowa with President Clinton by his side. Although Gore had been trying to distance himself from Clinton in light of the scandals that plagued the Clinton administration lately, it appears that Gore is completely abandoning that approach and has scheduled more rallies with the President.
New York Times, August 22, 1999

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Des Moines - Governor Bush is making a name for himself as the candidate everyone likes as a person, and so far it is working for him. The Powell campaign has been surprisingly dull in the last few weeks. Avoiding criticizing other GOP contenders while making vague and unclear plans about continuing with a fiscally conservative economic policy. Though Powell does receive a lot of praise as he talks about campaign finance reform, he has been slammed consistently by conservative radio hosts after an interview he gave where he said that he is pro-choice. This has caused Powell to lose quite a bit of support in Iowa. Despite these setbacks, he does continue to lead Governor Bush by 5-10% in polls conducted in Iowa.
New York Times, August 27, 1999

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Washington - General Powell's statements about himself being Pro-Choice as had a rather minimal effect on his national support. Although he has dropped down to 40% in the latest Gallup poll, GOP voters seem to be ignoring his stance on abortion and support Powell mostly due to his popularity as a general. It seems to be that most people in the GOP race so far support candidates based on how they see them as a person. This can be seen in a poll taken earlier this week which showed that very few people had an understanding of what the Bush Campaign's catch phrase of compassionate conservatism as was or even seemed familiar with the term.
[FONT=&quot]New York Times, September 1, 1999

[/FONT]September 1, 1999
Gallup National Poll


Colin Powell - 40%
George W. Bush - 34%
Elizabeth Dole - 5%
John McCain - 5%
Alan Keyes - 3%
Steve Forbes - 2%

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Nice to see Gore bring the Big Dog in; it looks as though Powell may lose Iowa yet, but even so I'm not worried for him -- he'll still most certainly win New Hampshire, and UIAM about it being an open primary, he's likely to win South Carolina...
 
\B]Washington -[/B] General Powell's statements about himself being Pro-Choice as had a rather minimal effect on his national support. Although he has dropped down to 40% in the latest Gallup poll, GOP voters seem to be ignoring his stance on abortion and support Powell mostly due to his popularity as a general.

This is almost certainly the last time you can get away with this, given the GOP base. Can we see the alternate CPAC where all the women are two-bit whores or frumpy :D.

Seriously though this is a fun timeline and I'm looking forward to interesting events.
 
I'll say it again, as long as Powell nominates a solid pro-life Conservative as his VP, he will be crystal with the GOP. After all, he's a war hero who urges fiscal conservatism and is nearly universally beloved by the American People. He's a dream canidate.
 
Powell does not even have to nominate a very conservative running mate. For him to avoid the Bradley affect and opposition from conservative voters, you better get in another strongly conservative candidate into the race to split off Bush's vote. Otherwise, once the primaries begin, his momentum could easily vaporized. Still months to go, but his lead has been significantly narrowed down.

Also, even if Powell is pro-Choice, he could still be anti-Roe v. Wade. Perhaps he could suggest that states should have final say about whether or not abortion should be legal:p That could possibly save him from conservative fear.
 
While I can see Powell winning the nomination, if enough other candidates split the social conservative vote.I wrote a TL where Rudi Giuliani won the 2008 Republican nomination. Once he wins the nomination and even after he picks a social conservative he has alienated much of the Republican base. There are people who oppose abortion and think that is the most important issue and will not vote for someone who disagrees with them. I am probably the only one reading this who personally knows such people.
 
While I can see Powell winning the nomination, if enough other candidates split the social conservative vote.I wrote a TL where Rudi Giuliani won the 2008 Republican nomination. Once he wins the nomination and even after he picks a social conservative he has alienated much of the Republican base. There are people who oppose abortion and think that is the most important issue and will not vote for someone who disagrees with them. I am probably the only one reading this who personally knows such people.
Though it does not really mean that their vote would go to the Democratic candidate:p Gore may sound solidly pro-life at first, but he has got increasingly pro-choice throughout the years:p
 
Though it does not really mean that their vote would go to the Democratic candidate:p Gore may sound solidly pro-life at first, but he has got increasingly pro-choice throughout the years:p

There would be a social conservative third party, someone more credible than Alan Keyes. There would also be many social conservative stay at homes. Which hurts the whole Republican ticket.
 
Labor Divided on Endorsement

The nation's labour movement is sharply divided over how to handle its coveted endorsement in next year's Presidential election because several powerful unions -- the auto workers, the steelworkers and the teamsters -- feel that Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic front-runner, is not sympathetic enough to their views on trade policy.
Eager for the money and manpower that organized labor can deliver, Mr. Gore is intensely courting union leaders in the hope of getting the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations to endorse him at its convention in Los Angeles next month.
But former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey, who is challenging Mr. Gore for the Democratic Presidential nomination, is wooing unions just as hard, embracing many of labor's positions as he tries to prevent Gore supporters from mustering an endorsement by the 13-million-member labor federation.
New York Times, September 10, 1999

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GOP goes after Buchanan

After Buchanan announced his departure from the GOP back in October, the GOP has been pretty unanimous in its condemnation of Buchanan. General Powell and Senator McCain both criticized Buchanan on his "obsolete" positions on foreign policy and because of his isolationist views on World War II and questions about whether Hitler was a threat to the United States. Elizabeth Dole called these comments "grossly insensitive to those Americans who gave those lives and those veterans who fought and suffered greatly to preserve freedom in the world.'' However, there was some hesitation from the Bush campaign that called for Buchanan to stay in the GOP.
New York Times, September 20, 1999



John McCain Announces Candidacy for President


NASHUA - Although he has been campaigning since April, Senator McCain formally announced his candidacy in Nashua New Hampshire today.

"I do not announce my candidacy to satisfy my personal ambitions. My life has already been blessed more than I deserve. I don't begin this mission with any sense of entitlement. America doesn't owe me anything. I am the son and grandson of Navy admirals, and I was born into America's service. It wasn't until I was deprived of her company that I fell in love with America. And it has been my honor to serve her and her great cause -- freedom. I have never lived a day since that I wasn't more than thankful for the privilege.
It is because I owe America more than she has ever owed me that I am a candidate for President of the United States. "
Time Magazine, September 27, 1999

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Bush Visits New York in an Early Sortie Into Democratic Territory

Despite Colin Powell winning over the endorsement of mayor Rudy Giuliani not too long ago, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas embarked on a three-day campaign sweep across New York, a state that he and his aides think can emerge as contested ground in a Presidential election for the first time in more than a decade.
New York Times, October 11, 1999
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Elizabeth Dole Exits the Race
Elizabeth Dole has left the primary, citing a lack of funding. Mrs. Dole has not yet indicated if she plans on endorsing anyone for the GOP candidacy, however she has indicated in the past that she prefers Gov. Bush over Gen. Powell.
New York Times, October 15, 1999
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[FONT=&quot]Republican Presidential Candidates Debate in Durham, New Hampshire[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, John McCain and Colin Powell stood on the stage in New Hampshire and debated everything from foreign policy to environmental pollution. George W. Bush did not attend this debate. Although the debate started rather dull, John McCain and Colin Powell stole the show by discussing their plans for reforming Campaign Financing. Both candidates seemed incredibly similar ideologically and even personally. Both of them brought up their own personal stories about serving in Vietnam, something which Forbes and Keyes did not serve in. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New York Times, October 23, 1999[/FONT]


[FONT=&quot]Support for Gore increases in the Democratic primary [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]After defeating Bradley in a town hall debate earlier this week, Gore is challenging Bradley to some more debates. These debates have so far been eating away at Bradley's support and now Gore has also won over the endorsement of the [FONT=&quot]AFL-CIO. All of this has been devastating to Bradley's campaign which has put a huge emphasis on winning over support from the AFL-CIO. [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New York Times, October 29, 1999


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Gallup: November 1, 1999
Colin Powell - 44%
George W. Bush - 37%
John McCain - 13%
Steve Forbes - 3%
Alan Keyes - 2%
 
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