FPTP Sweden
- Thread starter Utgard96
- Start date
I did have one other place done - Jämtland. It's fairly boring, so we might as well get it finished.
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JÄMTLAND
Electorate: 99,192
Number of seats: 4
Quota: 24,798
Östersund
Electorate: 26,542 (+1,744)
This seat covers - you guessed it - Östersund. It follows the city's pre-1971 boundaries fairly closely, but also takes in the Torvalla area for population balancing.
Social Democrats: 8,893 (39.5%)
Moderates: 4,246 (18.9%)
Sweden Democrats: 1,935 (8.6%)
Majority: 4,647
Jämtland Södra (Jämtland South)
Electorate: 23,392 (-1,406)
A somewhat awkwardly named seat, this, as it covers Härjedalen and a small corner of Hälsingland as well as southern Jämtland. I imagine the Härjedalen particularists who periodically threaten to leave Jämtland and join Gävleborg would have yet another axe to grind if the seat has this name, which is precisely why I figure the Election Office would be most likely to choose it.
Social Democrats: 7,821 (40.2%)
Moderates: 3,327 (17.1%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,659 (13.7%)
Majority: 4,494
Jämtland Östra (Jämtland East)
Electorate: 23,330 (-1,468)
This seat covers the eastern part of the county, taking in the municipalities of Ragunda, Bräcke and Strömsund as well as Lit and Häggenås in Östersund and the Föllinge area in Krokom.
Social Democrats: 8,952 (46.7%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,565 (13.4%)
Centre: 2,408 (12.6%)
Majority: 6,387
Jämtland Västra (Jämtland West)
Electorate: 25,928
This seat covers mainly Åre and Krokom municipalities (apart from Föllinge, as mentioned), but also somewhat awkwardly takes in Frösön. This is the least safe Social Democratic seat in the county, and I figure if this were actual FPTP it'd be one of those places that still vote for the Centre.
Social Democrats: 7,511 (33.9%)
Moderates: 4,497 (20.3%)
Centre: 2,905 (13.1%)
Majority: 3,014
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I tried to assign members as best I could, based on place of residence. Some of them may be off, which is why I've stopped doing that on the remainder of the maps.
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JÄMTLAND
Electorate: 99,192
Number of seats: 4
Quota: 24,798
Östersund
Electorate: 26,542 (+1,744)
This seat covers - you guessed it - Östersund. It follows the city's pre-1971 boundaries fairly closely, but also takes in the Torvalla area for population balancing.
Social Democrats: 8,893 (39.5%)
Moderates: 4,246 (18.9%)
Sweden Democrats: 1,935 (8.6%)
Majority: 4,647
Jämtland Södra (Jämtland South)
Electorate: 23,392 (-1,406)
A somewhat awkwardly named seat, this, as it covers Härjedalen and a small corner of Hälsingland as well as southern Jämtland. I imagine the Härjedalen particularists who periodically threaten to leave Jämtland and join Gävleborg would have yet another axe to grind if the seat has this name, which is precisely why I figure the Election Office would be most likely to choose it.
Social Democrats: 7,821 (40.2%)
Moderates: 3,327 (17.1%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,659 (13.7%)
Majority: 4,494
Jämtland Östra (Jämtland East)
Electorate: 23,330 (-1,468)
This seat covers the eastern part of the county, taking in the municipalities of Ragunda, Bräcke and Strömsund as well as Lit and Häggenås in Östersund and the Föllinge area in Krokom.
Social Democrats: 8,952 (46.7%)
Sweden Democrats: 2,565 (13.4%)
Centre: 2,408 (12.6%)
Majority: 6,387
Jämtland Västra (Jämtland West)
Electorate: 25,928
This seat covers mainly Åre and Krokom municipalities (apart from Föllinge, as mentioned), but also somewhat awkwardly takes in Frösön. This is the least safe Social Democratic seat in the county, and I figure if this were actual FPTP it'd be one of those places that still vote for the Centre.
Social Democrats: 7,511 (33.9%)
Moderates: 4,497 (20.3%)
Centre: 2,905 (13.1%)
Majority: 3,014
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I tried to assign members as best I could, based on place of residence. Some of them may be off, which is why I've stopped doing that on the remainder of the maps.
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if it's okay with you, I put together a potential list of mp's for Norrbotten.
Kiruna-Pajala: Emilia Töyrä (s)
Inre Norrbotten: Sven Homlqvist (s)
Tornedalen: Sven-Erik Butch (s)
Boden: Leif Pettersson (s)
Luleå Östra: Jenny Alman (s)
Luleå Västra: Fredrik Lundh Sammeli (s)
Piteå: Ferid Letic (s)
Norrbotten Södra: Linus Sköld (s)
Kiruna-Pajala: Emilia Töyrä (s)
Inre Norrbotten: Sven Homlqvist (s)
Tornedalen: Sven-Erik Butch (s)
Boden: Leif Pettersson (s)
Luleå Östra: Jenny Alman (s)
Luleå Västra: Fredrik Lundh Sammeli (s)
Piteå: Ferid Letic (s)
Norrbotten Södra: Linus Sköld (s)
Wouldn't that force Ares to come up with an alternate party system for Sweden? The Liberal-Conservative Coalition Party on the right, the Centre on the centre and the Social Democrats on the left? Maybe now the Swedish Democrats not quite managing to gains seats?
Since Scania is... pretty huge (42 seats in total, including Malmö's ten seats which we have already done), I've decided to split it up in four parts. First up is the southwest, which is probably the most populated quarter and includes everything that was part of Greater Malmö before 2005. This covers nine seats aside from Malmö's ones.
Quota: 23,355
Vellinge
Electorate: 23,936 (+581)
This is the Vellinge, famed in song and story for having both Sweden's lowest council tax rate, highest average income and highest percentage of Moderate voters on the municipal level. This is replicated on the parliamentary level, and the seat remains ultra-safe for the Moderates.
Moderate: 10,833 (50.1%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,405 (15.7%)
Social Democrats: 2,430 (11.2%)
Majority: 7,428
Svedala
Electorate: 22,411 (-944)
This seat includes both all of its namesake municipality and large parts of rural Trelleborg to the south. Would've been safe for the Moderates in 2006 and especially 2010, but in 2014 the decrease of the Moderates and the rise of the Sweden Democrats turn it into a three-way marginal that's only barely held by the Moderates.
Moderates: 5,444 (27.6%)
Sweden Democrats: 4,868 (24.7%)
Social Democrats: 4,852 (24.6%)
Majority: 576
Trelleborg
Electorate: 22,513 (-842)
Trelleborg is the starting point of (most of) the ferries connecting Sweden with Germany, which are popular as a weekend trip combined with alcohol shopping at one of the "border shops" set up to take advantage of the laxer rules on alcohol sales on the continent. The seat covers the entire built-up area, including the exurb of Gislövsläge, as well as a small amount of rural land that was needed to avoid having to split wards. In spite of this, the Trelleborg seat is one of few safely-red ones in this part of the country.
Social Democrats: 7,171 (38.7%)
Sweden Democrats: 4,216 (22.8%)
Moderates: 3,942 (21.3%)
Majority: 2,955
Staffanstorp-Dalby
Electorate: 23,678 (+323)
Largely a seat containing everything that didn't fit neatly into any other seat, the Staffanstorp-Dalby seat takes in most of Staffanstorp municipality as well as about half of the eastern (rural) part of Lund, including the towns of Södra Sandby and Dalby. In a massive upset, the Social Democrats take this seat in 2014, but only by the narrowest of margins.
Social Democrats: 5,633 (27.3%)
Moderates: 5,624 (27.3%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,534 (17.1%)
Majority: 9
Lund Östra (Lund East)
Electorate: 25,145 (+1,790)
This seat is clearly far too large, but there's no good way to move wards over to either of the other Lund seats without causing a greater imbalance. I explain it in a Watsonian manner by pointing out that most of the recent development in Lund has in fact taken place in the eastern part of the city. Anyway, thanks to the presence of the professorial quarter as well as a number of other upscale areas, this is the most right-wing seat in Lund, and the only one still held by the Moderates in 2014.
A note on Lund as a whole - both the Greens and Liberals are strong here, and the Sweden Democrats remarkably weak for Scania, so all three seats are going to be extremely AndyC-ish. Naturally this is not what the city'd look like under actual FPTP.
Moderates: 5,120 (24.3%)
Social Democrats: 3,982 (18.9%)
Greens: 2,703 (12.8%)
Majority: 1,138
Lund Västra (Lund West)
Electorate: 22,866 (-489)
This seat consists largely of points west of the railway, a part of Lund that's somewhat isolated from the remainder of the city (in spite of the large number of footbridges crossing the tracks), and contains a diverse set of areas ranging from villas in Rådmansvången to student homes in Pilelyckan to rowhouses in Värpinge to tower blocks in Klostergården. It also takes in Hjärup, which a) is basically part of Lund anyway, and b) wouldn't fit as well with Staffanstorp. Swingy at the best of times, in 2014 it was taken narrowly by the Social Democrats.
Social Democrats: 4,575 (23.6%)
Moderates: 4,528 (22.0%)
Greens: 2,518 (13.0%)
Majority: 317
Lund Norra (Lund North)
Electorate: 23,646 (+291)
This seat takes in the mostly-newer developments in the northern part of Lund, including the rowhouse neighbourhood of Gunnesbo and what was supposed to have been Lund's version of Rosengård (but instead became student homes, because Lund) in Norra Fäladen. Probably the most Social Democratic of the three Lund seats, although you never can tell with Lund - in 2014 it was no more convincingly Social Democratic than the western seat was.
Social Democrats: 4,577 (22.9%)
Moderates: 4,239 (21.2%)
Greens: 2,661 (13.3%)
Majority: 338
Lomma
Electorate: 24,381 (+1,026)
This seat takes in its namesake municipality, as well as Åkarp in Burlöv and Furulund in Kävlinge, both of which have similar voting habits. Safe Moderate seat, although not quite as much so as Vellinge.
Moderates: 8,058 (36.6%)
Social Democrats: 4,526 (20.5%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,085 (14.0%)
Majority: 3,532
Kävlinge
Electorate: 21,923 (-1,432)
This seat takes in its namesake municipality (aside from Furulund) as well as Saxtorp and Annelund in Landskrona, which were needed to make up the numbers. As a result, it's shaped like... something I swear I recognise, though I can't make out what. Anyway, I'd expect this to be a safe Moderate seat most of the time, but (much like Svedala) their majority was slashed in 2014.
Moderates: 5,673 (29.7%)
Social Democrats: 5,052 (26.5%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,753 (19.7%)
Majority: 621
Quota: 23,355
Vellinge
Electorate: 23,936 (+581)
This is the Vellinge, famed in song and story for having both Sweden's lowest council tax rate, highest average income and highest percentage of Moderate voters on the municipal level. This is replicated on the parliamentary level, and the seat remains ultra-safe for the Moderates.
Moderate: 10,833 (50.1%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,405 (15.7%)
Social Democrats: 2,430 (11.2%)
Majority: 7,428
Svedala
Electorate: 22,411 (-944)
This seat includes both all of its namesake municipality and large parts of rural Trelleborg to the south. Would've been safe for the Moderates in 2006 and especially 2010, but in 2014 the decrease of the Moderates and the rise of the Sweden Democrats turn it into a three-way marginal that's only barely held by the Moderates.
Moderates: 5,444 (27.6%)
Sweden Democrats: 4,868 (24.7%)
Social Democrats: 4,852 (24.6%)
Majority: 576
Trelleborg
Electorate: 22,513 (-842)
Trelleborg is the starting point of (most of) the ferries connecting Sweden with Germany, which are popular as a weekend trip combined with alcohol shopping at one of the "border shops" set up to take advantage of the laxer rules on alcohol sales on the continent. The seat covers the entire built-up area, including the exurb of Gislövsläge, as well as a small amount of rural land that was needed to avoid having to split wards. In spite of this, the Trelleborg seat is one of few safely-red ones in this part of the country.
Social Democrats: 7,171 (38.7%)
Sweden Democrats: 4,216 (22.8%)
Moderates: 3,942 (21.3%)
Majority: 2,955
Staffanstorp-Dalby
Electorate: 23,678 (+323)
Largely a seat containing everything that didn't fit neatly into any other seat, the Staffanstorp-Dalby seat takes in most of Staffanstorp municipality as well as about half of the eastern (rural) part of Lund, including the towns of Södra Sandby and Dalby. In a massive upset, the Social Democrats take this seat in 2014, but only by the narrowest of margins.
Social Democrats: 5,633 (27.3%)
Moderates: 5,624 (27.3%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,534 (17.1%)
Majority: 9
Lund Östra (Lund East)
Electorate: 25,145 (+1,790)
This seat is clearly far too large, but there's no good way to move wards over to either of the other Lund seats without causing a greater imbalance. I explain it in a Watsonian manner by pointing out that most of the recent development in Lund has in fact taken place in the eastern part of the city. Anyway, thanks to the presence of the professorial quarter as well as a number of other upscale areas, this is the most right-wing seat in Lund, and the only one still held by the Moderates in 2014.
A note on Lund as a whole - both the Greens and Liberals are strong here, and the Sweden Democrats remarkably weak for Scania, so all three seats are going to be extremely AndyC-ish. Naturally this is not what the city'd look like under actual FPTP.
Moderates: 5,120 (24.3%)
Social Democrats: 3,982 (18.9%)
Greens: 2,703 (12.8%)
Majority: 1,138
Lund Västra (Lund West)
Electorate: 22,866 (-489)
This seat consists largely of points west of the railway, a part of Lund that's somewhat isolated from the remainder of the city (in spite of the large number of footbridges crossing the tracks), and contains a diverse set of areas ranging from villas in Rådmansvången to student homes in Pilelyckan to rowhouses in Värpinge to tower blocks in Klostergården. It also takes in Hjärup, which a) is basically part of Lund anyway, and b) wouldn't fit as well with Staffanstorp. Swingy at the best of times, in 2014 it was taken narrowly by the Social Democrats.
Social Democrats: 4,575 (23.6%)
Moderates: 4,528 (22.0%)
Greens: 2,518 (13.0%)
Majority: 317
Lund Norra (Lund North)
Electorate: 23,646 (+291)
This seat takes in the mostly-newer developments in the northern part of Lund, including the rowhouse neighbourhood of Gunnesbo and what was supposed to have been Lund's version of Rosengård (but instead became student homes, because Lund) in Norra Fäladen. Probably the most Social Democratic of the three Lund seats, although you never can tell with Lund - in 2014 it was no more convincingly Social Democratic than the western seat was.
Social Democrats: 4,577 (22.9%)
Moderates: 4,239 (21.2%)
Greens: 2,661 (13.3%)
Majority: 338
Lomma
Electorate: 24,381 (+1,026)
This seat takes in its namesake municipality, as well as Åkarp in Burlöv and Furulund in Kävlinge, both of which have similar voting habits. Safe Moderate seat, although not quite as much so as Vellinge.
Moderates: 8,058 (36.6%)
Social Democrats: 4,526 (20.5%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,085 (14.0%)
Majority: 3,532
Kävlinge
Electorate: 21,923 (-1,432)
This seat takes in its namesake municipality (aside from Furulund) as well as Saxtorp and Annelund in Landskrona, which were needed to make up the numbers. As a result, it's shaped like... something I swear I recognise, though I can't make out what. Anyway, I'd expect this to be a safe Moderate seat most of the time, but (much like Svedala) their majority was slashed in 2014.
Moderates: 5,673 (29.7%)
Social Democrats: 5,052 (26.5%)
Sweden Democrats: 3,753 (19.7%)
Majority: 621
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What you suggest is probably the natural development of an FPTP Sweden (I'd expect the Centre to do significantly better, and parties like the Liberals or the Left to do significantly worse), it's also very hard to actually calculate. I could just mash the blocs together, which is something I've thought about, but that's for another time.
Yeah, I imagined as much, hence why I suppose that the Liberals and the Moderates might merge. Indeed, seeing how Centre seems to have a well situated presence in rural central Sweden it would be a powerful third party... Maybe Sweden would have FPTP that defies Duvenger, Canada style
You tease...
Thande
Donor
An interesting mix of 'plausible' and 'AndyC-ish' results there. Though it's no more than a rule of thumb, my gut feeling is that a setup where a party wins seats on 35% of the vote is 'stable' whereas one where they're winning them on 29% or less becomes 'unstable' and Something Gets Done, whether it's actual voting reform or just the party system collapsing and re-coalescing.
Thande
Donor
I thought you might bring that up
Something weird's going to go down there next election I'm sure. Er...well, weird even by Northern Ireland standards.
Holy moly. Poor Lund and Staffanstorp, they'd be overrun by campaigners in addition to the students (though I imagine that these groups would have a significant overlap).
With regards to actually doing a FPTP calculation I'd guess the easiest way would be to tweak for local party strength using an average of a couple of past elections (my suggestion: 1976, 1988 and 2006) and/or local elections (the local lists will probably make that difficult-to-impossible, though), find candidates and hand out eventual bonuses for candidate strength - likely based on personal votes, somehow - and then apply some kind of Duverger correction.
For example, using Karlshamn:
The average of 1976, 1988 and 2006 gives us these results:
Moderates 14.5
Centre 12.2
People's/Liberals 8.0
Christian Democrats 3.1
Greens 3.3
Social Democrats 50.3
Left 5.9
Sweden Democrats 2.1
Others 0.6
25% of the difference between these numbers and the 2014 results are added to the 2014 results, tweaked to reach 100% while cutting Fi into 2/3rds of the votes due to FPTP making people used to wasted votes, giving us:
Moderates 17.8
Centre 6.7
People's/Liberals 4.2
Christian Democrats 3.1
Greens 5.0
Social Democrats 41.1
Left 5.6
Sweden Democrats 14.5
Feminist Initiative 1.4
Others 0.7
Compared to the municipal election results, this is quite close to the Centre's and Sweden Democrats' actual results while other parties (especially the Greens, who turned out surprisingly well in the local elections) move in the opposite direction. This is, of course, just a mathematical example; had Suzanne Svensson gained a decent amount of personal votes I could have multiplied her voteshare by 1.2, 1.5 or whatever, and had there been a closer result I could have added a third of the C-L-KD-SD votes to the Moderates as the closest opposition.
But yes, it's a fairly arduous hassle.
With regards to actually doing a FPTP calculation I'd guess the easiest way would be to tweak for local party strength using an average of a couple of past elections (my suggestion: 1976, 1988 and 2006) and/or local elections (the local lists will probably make that difficult-to-impossible, though), find candidates and hand out eventual bonuses for candidate strength - likely based on personal votes, somehow - and then apply some kind of Duverger correction.
For example, using Karlshamn:
The average of 1976, 1988 and 2006 gives us these results:
Moderates 14.5
Centre 12.2
People's/Liberals 8.0
Christian Democrats 3.1
Greens 3.3
Social Democrats 50.3
Left 5.9
Sweden Democrats 2.1
Others 0.6
25% of the difference between these numbers and the 2014 results are added to the 2014 results, tweaked to reach 100% while cutting Fi into 2/3rds of the votes due to FPTP making people used to wasted votes, giving us:
Moderates 17.8
Centre 6.7
People's/Liberals 4.2
Christian Democrats 3.1
Greens 5.0
Social Democrats 41.1
Left 5.6
Sweden Democrats 14.5
Feminist Initiative 1.4
Others 0.7
Compared to the municipal election results, this is quite close to the Centre's and Sweden Democrats' actual results while other parties (especially the Greens, who turned out surprisingly well in the local elections) move in the opposite direction. This is, of course, just a mathematical example; had Suzanne Svensson gained a decent amount of personal votes I could have multiplied her voteshare by 1.2, 1.5 or whatever, and had there been a closer result I could have added a third of the C-L-KD-SD votes to the Moderates as the closest opposition.
But yes, it's a fairly arduous hassle.