First World War League of Armed Neutrality

[SealTheRealDeal]

There had previously been a recurring practice of neutral European states forming leagues to protect their commerce durring times of war. Though this had long since fallen into disuse by the time of WWI.

League of Armed Neutrality - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What if the Dutch, Scandinavians, and Spanish declared their own League of Armed Neutrality during the First World War?

Would the US join?

Would it have any impact on the Entente blockade?

Would it be sufficient to kill unrestricted submarine warfare?

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

I suppose the major question is what the members of the league would be willing to do.

If they can credibly threaten to either attack Germany or shut down German imports unaffected by the British blockade then they might have a credible enough threat to deter Germany away from unrestricted submarine warfare; but if they're only threatening to attack submarines at sea and lodge diplomatic protests I can't see any such league having a significant effect on Germany's decision-making. Likewise, the Entente are unlikely to end their blockade unless the league can offer a credible threat or a useful promise in return.

Frankly, even if a League of Armed Neutrality is announced, I can't see a group of countries with very different commercial interests (Spain is exporting to France, loving it, and the increased trade with the Entente is effectively replacing previous trade with the Central Powers; Scandinavia is much less happy with the effects of the war on their trade, and the Dutch are somewhere in the middle) coming to a decisive stand with the unity and commitment required to change the policy of the warring powers.

OTOH, a less-than-decisive League is probably a lot more attractive to the US than one that looks likely to embroil it in the war, so that might increase the chances that the US could join and give the league some teeth vis-à-vis the Entente by threatening to reduce US exports at the source.