Eyes Turned Skywards

Development of orbital cryo storage facilities is a heck of an improvement on OTL, in my humble opinion! (I knew I'd be glad to vote for Richards in this timeline for some reason or other!:p)

It does seem a shame that the idea of side-grading the X-33 based systems into a two-staged launcher has died on the vine; that might have had potential.

But the Saturn and other systems in place seem to be producing a decent rate of space launches at an affordable cost, given the basic scale of investment as being about the same as OTL. My impression is, the timeline is doing more for the same money as OTL, and in addition space programs that do manage to get the political nod seem more politically sustainable, less likely to get slashed later on a whim, more likely to lead to a net increase in the sustained level of investment, public and private, in space activity. Thus they seem more likely to keep what they do have, and pretty sure to gradually have more instead of simply standing still or going backwards on major fronts.
 
A little confused

So as of now, there's nothing definite as far as lunar missions or basing is concerned after the first batch of six Artemis missions is concluded?
 
Cryo-Propellant Space Storage? Not easy, but far from impossible, and keeping over 83% of the propellant (by my math) after a year is nothing to be sneezed at.

Would it be better to store the propellant at EML-2 to minimize propellant boil-off? From EML-2 very little additional Delta-V is required to venture to Mars.
 
So as of now, there's nothing definite as far as lunar missions or basing is concerned after the first batch of six Artemis missions is concluded?

See here:

In short, both the people and their elected representatives favored the status quo. The final result was that four more Artemis landings were approved as part of the NASA 2001 Authorization Act, at a cost of $1.3 billion each--roughly 10% less than the cost of the original six thanks to program streamlining and cost reductions in the Saturn Heavy allowed by the increased production of cores. Additionally, small sums were put towards programs aimed to enhance the capabilities of these landings, such as the introduction of yet another new RL-10 modification with enhanced specific impulse, which would replace the engines on Pegasus and two of the three engines on the lander. These small modifications were enough to allow a payload increase of roughly a ton and enhance the potential hardware delivered for use on the lunar surface...Thus, Richards was able to ensure the survival of the Artemis program for another four years, pushing the potential end of the program to 2009--beyond the scope of any possible Richards Administration, and officially her successor’s problem.

"Approve four more missions, punt the decision down the line."

Would it be better to store the propellant at EML-2 to minimize propellant boil-off? From EML-2 very little additional Delta-V is required to venture to Mars.
Depends where you're going. If you're going to the Moon, you use the majority of the prop getting there from LEO, so that's where you want your depot. If you're going to Mars, topping at EML-2 can make sense, but having a LEO depot reduces the problems of getting to EML-2. Thus, I think LEO is the best place to start depots, but adding them elsewhere can make sense.
 
A technical question: which is easier to build an LH2 depot at, a low Earth orbit well below the Van Allen belt inner layer (and also more easily accessed from Earth) or a high orbit?

In a high orbit, such as the Lagrange points, the depot is continually exposed to sunlight. That may be no bad thing, if the depot can orient itself so one face of it always is turned to the Sun--the Sun is probably the power source for any active recondensing that might be going on, and anyway you concentrate all the heat shielding on that vector. But the Sunlight never goes away.

In LEO on the other hand, Earth looms, taking up nearly half the entire sky. This means that almost half the time the depot is in shadow as far as the Sun is concerned, and that would seem to cut the basic problem just about in half.

However, Earth itself is no mean source of infrared radiation. (A secondary technical question--I have the impression that simply reflecting infrared is a bugger of a design task--we can reflect 90 percent or more of light in the visible spectrum, and I'd guess do about as well with UV, but below a certain transition level--I'd guess the level where the wavelengths correspond to molecular-scale excitations of whole molecules rather than quantum-jumping of electrons in atomic shells--everything becomes pretty much "black;" just about every substance absorbs all the IR and reradiates it. No "white" substances for IR--true or false?)

The real bugger of Terran IR radiation will be during the day, when the satellite is also exposed to the Sun. Presumably the main heat shielding is again oriented to block the sunlight, but that leaves Earthlight reflecting on it unimpeded.

I would guess the Earth's IR output is more intense on the day side, but also that even at night it maintains almost daylight levels--that is, little IR is reflected, most of it is reradiated, and not from objects on the surface that get hot in the day but cool down at night--basically from some broad strata in the upper atmosphere that stay at pretty much a constant temperature.

Thus the LEO version gets the direct sunlight cut in half, which is good, but is constantly exposed to dim but continual Terran IR, which is bad. Especially because the Sun is a highly concentrated source but Earth sprawls over half the sky.

We could have a secondary heat shield and it should be possible to maintain the craft's attitude to block both, the thing rotating around its sunward axis which slowly precesses over a year, at a 24 hour rate that has the secondary on the bearing it needs to be.

Still, during the day, where will an actively-recondensing depot radiate its waste heat? At "noon" when the satellite is poised over the vector connecting the Sun to Earth, half its sky is blocked by the Earth IR shield, and the other half is dominated by the Sun. Pretty tricky!

It all depends on the sorts of pressures and temperatures an active recondensing system can achieve--with radiators good and hot it won't matter then that they are exposed to backflow from one source or the other, not much anyway. With them operating with great delicacy on very slow, gentle gradients, that factor might matter a whole lot.

And I do realize you haven't yet described an active one that can maintain a given stock of LH2 forever by constantly recondensing the inevitable boiloff--just ingenious systems to slow that rate down so losses are low after long time periods, presumably longer times than it takes Earth to replace the lost hydrogen. For such a passive system the whole name of the game would be to simply shroud the tanks as much as possible, and accept that some boiloff is going to happen anyway.

It seems to me other things being equal, high orbit is clearly superior, offering the depot pretty much constant conditions to be optimized for and a relatively simple environment.

But obviously other things are not equal:

1) High orbit means it is expensive to deliver a given mass there, including the eventual mission craft that want to tap the fuel;

2) High orbits are in the radiation belts, which are a hazard for any manned missions and will cause deterioration and unreliability of whatever electronics the depot does need;

3) Most high orbits are not "on the way" to likely destinations--obviously a few are, such as the Lagrange points. (They also don't suffer from Van Allen Belt concentrated radiation, just constant cosmic rays and the unshielded Solar wind). But these favored locations are very far from Earth indeed.

If I recall correctly, e of pi once observed that a teacher of his calculated a satellite in low Earth orbit should have little trouble maintaining LOX below boiling--implying that it would be otherwise farther out from Earth, implying that despite the complicating factor of IR coming from the large disk of Earth, the interrupted daylight of the low orbit is the winning factor, leaving it on the whole easier to operate a depot (at least for oxygen) there. I'd think if it's easier for LOX, it is less difficult for hydrogen as well.

So does the properly educated and up-to-date astronautical community have hard and fast, well-established answers to these questions of thermal cosmography, or is it all as yet a matter of a handful of paper projects whose conclusions one takes with grains of salt graduated by industry knowledge of who these people are, how much are they paid to take this stuff seriously, and what do they like to smoke?
 
You talk about sun shades and such. But surely an active cryocololer would be feasible, no?

I imagine it would be.

But for one thing, a passive approach is obviously a thing to develop and test. Minimizing the flux that an active cooler would have to reconstitute is an obvious way to render the latter a more feasible, lighter, less power-hungry device.

Secondly and more relevant here, the canon post only mentioned Cryosat as a device that slowed the loss of hydrogen down to 1/2000 a day, not one that retained a given stock with no losses at all. So I presumed that Cryosat was a test and development of passive storage only.

My post did mention the possibility of the more advanced next step, which I certainly do hope to see.
 
Depends where you're going. If you're going to the Moon, you use the majority of the prop getting there from LEO, so that's where you want your depot. If you're going to Mars, topping at EML-2 can make sense, but having a LEO depot reduces the problems of getting to EML-2. Thus, I think LEO is the best place to start depots, but adding them elsewhere can make sense.

I was reading this paper about propellant depots. I am trying to figure out why a Propellant Depot at EML-2 has significant less boil off rate than LEO? The paper mentions something about increased radiation around Earth and increased Albedo by being near Earth. It was a interesting read and what gave me the idea about a Propellant depot at both LEO and EML-2.

(http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Exploration/AffordableExplorationArchitecture2009.pdf )
 
OK. That's what I thought.

I just hope someone in the White House realizes you can't punt forever.

Yes, but an overly ambitious program that requires future administrations (possibly of the opposite party) to follow your pet plan is a waste of effort. As both George Bushes found.

Seriously, at this point, they've got all they can handle (pay for) on their plate already, no point in making future plans that someone else will dump anyway.
 
I don't suppose Star Launch Services is run by the CEO we're most familiar with. Seal Beach...are they using Boeing's old S-II production facility?

Zubrin arguing for something other than Mars missions...I call ASB. :p In seriousness, it seems like the Artemis and Freedom hardware is just about exactly what's needed for the Mars flyby mission he proposed IOTL as a Mars Direct precursor--that sounds like something he'd be pushing ITTL.

I look forward to seeing where the depot development goes. Depots are a great driver for RLV (or, if possible at all, very cheap Big Dumb Booster) programs.
 
This value could be made up by Europe and Japan via barter of cargo transport to Freedom--and allowing cost reductions to Freedom operations in the US budget in turn, appeasing the budget hawks. This was an easy deal for Europe--it meant little more than a second Minotaur flight a year to station, in exchange for continued access to two crew at a time on Freedom and an offer of a seat on every Artemis landing. For Japan, it was a more complex proposition, but one along lines they had already been considering.
So does that mean that this TL might have an HTV after all?

Aardvark Block II was already a HTV-esque vehicle.
 
Yes, but an overly ambitious program that requires future administrations (possibly of the opposite party) to follow your pet plan is a waste of effort. As both George Bushes found.

Both Bushes made it easy for their pet plans to be killed by refusing to fund them at anything like the necessary levels.

Otherwise, I think history shows that administrations love to bind future ones with their pet projects wherever they can manage it.

ARTEMIS on its current schedule will be coming to an end at the end of this Richards Administration (2001-05, if she lives that long here). You need lead time for this stuff. In this case, however, I would say that "punting" means just tacking on more ARTEMIS missions at the same rate, if nothing else than to keep key folks on the Hill and their constituent contractors happy - and hold off on a lunar base, permanent or man-tended, until later.

Well - I am sure that our authors have considered all this long before us.
 
I don't suppose Star Launch Services is run by the CEO we're most familiar with. Seal Beach...are they using Boeing's old S-II production facility?

Maybe.......Maybe Not.......

elon-musk-100212-2.jpg

elon-musk-100212-2.jpg
 
I don't suppose Star Launch Services is run by the CEO we're most familiar with. Seal Beach...are they using Boeing's old S-II production facility?

It is run by a familiar CEO, yes. Someone you will certainly recognize, though I'm not sure if he's the one you're "most" familiar with. I've been waiting four years for this to drop, so as you can imagine I am quite pleased to see your speculation...:p
 
It is run by a familiar CEO, yes. Someone you will certainly recognize, though I'm not sure if he's the one you're "most" familiar with. I've been waiting four years for this to drop, so as you can imagine I am quite pleased to see your speculation...:p

There is always Jeff Bezos, Paul Allen and Burt Rutan. You haven't given us much information to go on.

Please don't tell me it is Sir Richard Branson......
 
Ah, well, one of those is correct. And don't worry, that's the fun: I get to watch you speculating :p

Ok I got it narrowed down to four. I am happy now. At least I figured it out enough to get within striking distance.

The problem with SpaceX is how critical the COTS awards were to the company to allow it to develop the Falcon9 and Dragon and get it to it's current status in OTL. Without those same conditions of NASA doings COTS and then the CRS and CCDev programs then SpaceX might have even failed and been another footnote in a long line of failed space launch companies. Musk just doesn't have the deep pockets (At that time point in time) that a Bezos or a Allen brings to the table to support the development of launch vehicles from personal funds.
 
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