What change has propelled Churchill into Blenheim?
Tony
My mistake. Should be Chartwell of course. Thanks for pointing out. Corrected in post...
What change has propelled Churchill into Blenheim?
Tony
Even if Heydrich escaped to that SS unit in Poland, I doubt he can manage to do much worse with it than a few days of localized fighting in Poland.
Very interesting story. I wonder how the negotiations between the Entente and Germany will work out. For the Entente, their maximum objective is probably independent Czechia (with or without Munich borders) and pre-war Poland plus Danzig (basically the world prior to the Munich Conference, or at least prior to March 1939). Germany's maximum objective is probably keeping Czechia and 1914 borders with Poland. It's going to be hard to negotiate a reasonable peace, but it's certainly not undoable if the negotiators wish peace - which Goering's Germany and the Entente certainly do.
Germany really has no reason to want Czechia, because they will allways have only problems with them, so it's better to have free and small ( not dangerous ) Czechia around ( OFC that she will naturally be under German influence economicly ) provided OFC some guarantees ( small Czech army-about 30 000 soldiers, no fortifications, free use of Czech railways etc., maybe even customs union ).
Very interesting story. I wonder how the negotiations between the Entente and Germany will work out. For the Entente, their maximum objective is probably independent Czechia (with or without Munich borders) and pre-war Poland plus Danzig (basically the world prior to the Munich Conference, or at least prior to March 1939). Germany's maximum objective is probably keeping Czechia and 1914 borders with Poland. It's going to be hard to negotiate a reasonable peace, but it's certainly not undoable if the negotiators wish peace - which Goering's Germany and the Entente certainly do.
IMO the final agreement would involve: an independent Czechia with an economic union with Germany; an independent Poland with the 1807 border and a population exchange of ethnic Poles in West Prussia and Upper Silesia and ethnic Germans in Posen and Lodz (perhaps the population transfer might even include the mass expulsion of German Jews to Poland); the restoration of the 1935 Anglo-German naval agreement extended to submarines; a balanced limitation of land forces between Germany and France and a bilateral demilitarization of the Franco-German border (perhaps extended to the Belgian-German border too).
If the Entente makes an especially good bargain, they might even get Poland to keep extraterritorial port facilities and logistical connections in Gdynia. If Germany makes an especially good bargain, it might even get Posen, too. However, given the past bad experiences of the Second Reich with Polish irredentism, I'd expect they would rather focus on ensuring the Germanization of annexed areas first and foremost than getting the maximum territorial objective of the 1914 border. This may easily require them to give up Posen, which would be the most problematic area in this regard.
Agreed. In the long term, an economic union between Germany and an independent Czechia is to the best interest of Berlin.
(perhaps the population transfer might even include the mass expulsion of German Jews to Poland);
by default because they resent Germany and Russia much more but not liking even London and Paris too much, either.
Sir Edward, the Government of Greater German Reich is convinced that interest of Czech people are best served if they remain under protection of Greater German Reich. Their country borders Reich on almost all sides. The economic life and welfare of the country are wholly depended on Reichs economy. We are willing to offer Czech people some involvmenent into decision making process on their territory, even full local authonomy and self governance. However, restoration of full sovereignity is beyond the power of Reich."
Absolutely. The CSR between Munich and March '39 already was moving towards this. IIRC, the building of an Autobahn connecting Vienna with Silesia and moving through the CSR had been agreed upon. If it hadn't been for the greed for power and gold, the occupation of Prague was absolutely unnecessary. Given the geographical situation and its very industrialized economy, the Czech Republic will need a reasonable agreement with Germany to function economically.
Same would go for a Czech army. The Czech could spend money on an army of 300,000 men, stripped of their natural defensive lines after Munich, they are in an indefensible position against Germany.
What I want to say, Germany doesn't have to waste diplomacy to press on restrictions here.
Not an enviable diplomatic position, but better than OTL 39-45 for Poland. I am quite sure that a post-war Polish government with the experience of
a) being overrun in three weeks
b) the 4th partition - even if short-lived
c) its allies making peace with Germany at the first occasion
will seek to play nice to everything West of it. If the German government is commited to being saturated after what they regained in 1935-39, there will be no problem with that in the future.
Very good update. I only have a couple remarks to make.
First, the statement
is clearly untrue (if it wants, Germany can certainly restore the independence of Czechia) and so it is not something a professional diplomat should utter. It might perhaps be changed to "However, restoration of the Czecho-Slovak state is beyond the power of the Reich" which is much more factually true (Slovaka is not under the direct control of Germany).
Second, I dunno if besides the Sudetenland, Danzig, and West Prussia/the Corridor, Upper Silesia too is notable enough or not to deserve an explicit mention in Neurath's opening statement among the territories that Germany is not open to return Poland, or it is an issue to be clarified in later negotiations. It certainly would be an area that Berlin is not willing to return, however. The German position would be that the area was quite economically valuable and the 1921 plebiscite had awarded it to Germany, but Poland had "cheated" by using violence to overturn the outcome and forcing a partition of the territory.
Yes, the plot really looks ( without hindsight ) like SS setup, because in eyes of allmost evrybody it's impossible that one lone man do something like that all by it self.