Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank
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Torpedoes would do fine; Dreadnought's underwater protection was limited. That's with benefit of hindsight, though(OTOH, torpedoes would come naturally as an answer).
I would think the moment the French or Russians start building dreadnoughts in earnest. Germany is just finished with a very expensive and extensive fleet renovation progamme thankyouverymuch, and the Reichstag would prefer not to spend that much again anytime soon. They aren't in any immediate rivalry with Britain.
Of course, Wilhelm will love the Dreadnought and get behind a building programme, but realistically, Germany is in for a rough time, with all the economic fallout of a major war. The Marine may well have to make do with its old toys for quite a while.
Wilhelmshaven and the Kiel Canal, yes. The German North Sea coast is not nice to big ships. It's one of the world's most unforgiving places to navigate.
That strikes me as somewhat unbelievable?
In the early 20th century Germany was competing with the UK as the number 2 economic power behind the USA? And finally surpassing the UK.
According to your TL up to now, Germany doesn´t even suspect a surprise attack by the Russian army?
So why wouldn´t they start constructing a limited number of dreadnoughts? Useful against both the Russian Baltic fleet and the French Atlantic fleet?
Did this TL´s Germany built even more pre-dreadnoughts than our TL Germany? Somewhat unlikely given the agreement with the British Empire?
A larger number of (cheaper) small (light) cruisers and torpedo boats than in our TL seems much more likely?
Which would make the German navy - once some dreadnoughts are added - a much more balanced (and more dangerous) fleet.
Some of the new constructions might get interrupted (Danzig for example) but construction in Kiel, Hamburg or Wilhelmhafen will still go ahead?
That strikes me as somewhat unbelievable?
In the early 20th century Germany was competing with the UK as the number 2 economic power behind the USA? And finally surpassing the UK.
According to your TL up to now, Germany doesn´t even suspect a surprise attack by the Russian army?
So why wouldn´t they start constructing a limited number of dreadnoughts? Useful against both the Russian Baltic fleet and the French Atlantic fleet?
Did this TL´s Germany built even more pre-dreadnoughts than our TL Germany? Somewhat unlikely given the agreement with the British Empire?
A larger number of (cheaper) small (light) cruisers and torpedo boats than in our TL seems much more likely?
Which would make the German navy - once some dreadnoughts are added - a much more balanced (and more dangerous) fleet.
Some of the new constructions might get interrupted (Danzig for example) but construction in Kiel, Hamburg or Wilhelmhafen will still go ahead?
Assuming a continued peacetime rivalry with France and Russia, they would no doubt begin building all-big-gun ships as soon as either france or Russia laid down their first. That would most likely be about a year from now, after successful sea trials show the thing works. A year from now, though, Germany will be busy with other things, so construction will go ahead with considerable delays, and they will not come anywhere near replacing their entire pre-dreadnought fleet as per OTL's naval laws.
As of now, they have fewer battleships and cruisers than IOTL, enough to balance the Russian Baltic fleet and present a credible coastal deterrent against France. The money not spent went partly into an earlier army expansion and partly simply wasn't taken up in debt. as a result, the naval policy is less important and by design reactive. ITTL Germany won't build the second dreadnought, though they may feel forced to build the third.
This is 1906?
According to you "Germany is just finished with a very expensive and extensive fleet renovation progamme".
On what?
According to this TL Germany does have friendly relations with the UK? So I would assume that the Germans built less pre-dreadnoughts than in our TL?
And according to you, they also have less cruisers?
In that case just where was all that money spent?
So even if spending more money on the army earlier on (bad news for Russia and France) there should be some money available for new capital ships?
This is 1906?
According to you "Germany is just finished with a very expensive and extensive fleet renovation progamme".
On what?
According to this TL Germany does have friendly relations with the UK? So I would assume that the Germans built less pre-dreadnoughts than in our TL?
And according to you, they also have less cruisers?
In that case just where was all that money spent?
So even if spending more money on the army earlier on (bad news for Russia and France) there should be some money available for new capital ships?
I see your points, and they should be adressed.
One thing that came to my mind: even IOTL Germany had to raise taxes for shipbuilding - the tax on champagne comes into mind, though I'm not sure when that was introduced. Butterflying away those tax increases could imply that Germany has a higher GDP/economy running better than IOTL.
Another point of money spent could be the colonies. It's already established that young Wilhelm had some new ideas about colonialism. Maybe Germany is spending more on its colonies?
Enough ultramodern pre-dreadnoughts to go toe-to-toe with the Russuian Baltic fleet, a bunch of cruisers and torpedo boats to post in every major port city of the realm. IOTL, Germany spent even more than that, on a fleet designed to threaten Britain, but IOTL, the German government had to raise taxes, cut the army budget and issue large amounts of bonds to do that. The government mulled ideas like closing universities and reducing the civil service. With a larger army, even more heavy artillery, and a more conservative approach to taxation, not spending huge sums on a new fleet does not mean you have money lying around.
According to this TL Germany does have friendly relations with the UK? So I would assume that the Germans built less pre-dreadnoughts than in our TL?
And according to you, they also have less cruisers?
In that case just where was all that money spent?
So even if spending more money on the army earlier on (bad news for Russia and France) there should be some money available for new capital ships?
It could be found if it was needed (as it will be if France or Russia go into a full-scale building programme), but it's not something the government would prefer to do. Replacing the entire battlefleet now would mean raising taxes, issuing debt, and getting into political fights. The German fleet armament programme IOTL was designed by economic illiterates, which is not the case ITTL. So, yes, Germany could build the ten to twelve dreadnoughts it would take, but the money will only be spent if the government feels it has to.
I'm not sure economic growth in the 1895-1905 time window can be much higher than IOTL. There are limits to this kind of thing posed by the technological possibilities. But what Germany does have is more capital in private hands, and some more big building projects at home. The Mittellandkanal got funding sooner, for one thing. There is also a greater amount of investment capital that german banks and companies can deploy abroad, something that IOTL was felt severely lacking in the competition with France. The Baghdad railway is one such example that did not require all-highest arm-twisting ITTL.
The biggest differencve is a (slight) one in political culture. To IOTL's Wilhelmine Germany, it was a given that you worked out what armaments you needed, and then went to the Reichstag to get the money. The idea was that national standing and power required these things, so you would have them. In ITTL's Germany, you have people running things who understand economic questions better and who are more inclinded toward an Anglo-liberal stance on taxes. They will factor money into their considerations earlier. It also fits the more modest personal style of both Albert and Wilhelm III, but mostly, it's down to the way deliberations work. Germany still gets a ridiculously expensive army and a cruiser fleet that, realistically speaking, it does not need, but it does not go quite as far overboard as it did.
One thing to bear in mind: IOTL, the debt of the empire rose from practically nil in 1876 to 4.7% of its GDP in 1888 (POD), which in peacetime was felt troubling. IOTL, the massive expenditures for fleet and army meant that the debt ratio rose to over 10% of GDP in 1906 (dropping back slightly until 1913 thanks to higher tax receipts and a more cautious policy). ITTL, this rise did not happen.
Not a whole lot. Especially military commitments are kept limited where possible. There is more private investment, though.
As and when ships need replacing, they will build top-of-the-line craft. There is no opposition to building dreadnoughts per se. I could even see one or tweo being laid down hjust to see if German yards could handle them and work out the kinks (Albert was much more hands-on than Wilhelm II).
The propbvlem is that there are not going to be any outdated ships in need of replacement for a while. the battlefleet (with the exception of retained coastal defense ships) is spanking new. So it will be up to the French to motivate the Germans.
Thanks for that answer.
Considering economic growth 1895 - 1905: I don't know any numbers, but I do know that the general assumption of a decade long economic miracle is wrong. There were repeated recessions, even severe ones, that are, however, largely forgotten. Adding a bit to the average GDP growth should still be possible - in particular if you mention that large infrastructure projects would be built.
The impact of that is, however, difficult to assess. Say GDP of Germany ITTL in 1905 is 5% higher than IOTL (which is a lot to get from 10 years), then we have more or less 1907 Germany fighting 1905 Russia - that won't make the difference given that Russian GDP should be significantly lower ITTL than IOTL...
Oh, those shocking debt levels of 10% of GDP. How could they live with that...
Thanks for the answer.
That makes a lot more sense. "Expensive and extensive" as seen from this TL´s point of view. not OTL point of view.
The Baghdad railway on the other hand did trouble the British Empire in OTL?
Now with a friendly Germany there might be less worries. On the other hand the railway potentially strengthens the Ottoman Empire in the Near East? Something the British Empire isn´t really in favor of?
Don´t see how they can cut back on the "ridiculously expensive army" with France and Russia in the East and West.
And the cruiser fleet?
If the cruiser fleet is smaller than in our TL we´re talking maybe about 30 armored and small (light) cruisers?
And most / all of then already obsolete in late 1906.
The small cruiser Dresden, laid down in October 1906, was the first German cruiser with turbines instead of triple expansion engines.
The horror!
But seriously I understand your point. With a gold backed currency such a deficit could result in problems much earlier. On the other hand most of the debt would be held by Germans. Somewhat mitigating economic problems.
This is a bit more difficult to grasp.
The initial private chartered companies administering the German colonies - favored by Bismarck - all failed in the 1880s / early 1890s. Which practically forced the German government to take over the German colonies one after the other.
None of them was profitable in 1914. If I remember correctly Togo was the only German colony in 1913/1914 to show a balanced budget.
Which led to rising government spending on colonies. In our TL it took until 1907 to create a "Kolonialamt" (federal office for colonies) to centralize administration for the colonies and cut down on waste. If I remember correctly the Reichstag (German parliament) was a proponent of that change. Wishing to have one government department responsible for the colonies.
Before 1907 you had several federal departments each responsible for one part of colonial development. But none responsible for everything.
And only after 1907 conditions started to improve in the German colonies. Schools, hospitals, research institutes, infrastructure and so on.
Without that improvement why would private capital be even interested in investing in the German colonies here?
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