2012 US Election Demos

Wayside

Wayside

This is really awesome! I'd like to see the detailed results for Lehigh and Northampton Counties in PA, if possible.
 
Zachanassian

Zachanassian

Gone Fishin'
Watching this space.

Out of curiosity, where do you get your data from? I always assumed that since voting was confidential, it would not be possible to record with 100% accuracy how every person within a given area voted. Or, is this more based on polling data rather than voting records?
 
Zachanassian

Zachanassian

Gone Fishin'
Reagent said:
  • Turnout Statewide for various demographic groups (data available through the US Census Bureau)
  • Statewide support for Obama among various demographic groups (which is possible to compute through precinct analysis*, and helped by the US Census community survey)
  • Democratic/Republican support in a County compared to state (minorities tend to vote slightly more GOP in more Republican areas), which is fed into a LOESS regression curve
  • Voting Age Demographics for a county (data available through the US Census Bureau)
  • Percentage of Illegal Immigrants by State and metropolitan areas (made available through the Pew Hispanic Center
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Okay, interesting.
 
Zioneer

Zioneer

Banned
Reagent said:
At the time of this post, I've finished Utah and a number of the major Texas counties.

I'm going to be working on Nevada and Arizona next. If anyone has requests to see the detailed result (with 4 significant figures) of the margin in any select counties (in addition to any Utah counties), please post those here.
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I think I love you, Reagent.

In any case, I would like to see the margins of each ethnic group in Salt Lake County, San Juan County, and Weber County. Salt Lake County is highest priority if you don't have time for the rest though.
 
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Thande

Thande

Donor
Is Utah tracking this data using different methodology to other states, because those borders really stand out.
 

Nanwe

Reagent said:
Same methodology. Mormonism™ is the probable explanation.

Obama "only" won African-Americans by about a 40% margin in Utah. Compare that to about 90% nationwide...

Likewise, Romney did pretty well among Hispanics and Asians in Utah.
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I was surprised by how African Americans are much more Democratic than Hispanics in Arizona. I know that they are the most 'natural' constituency of the Dems, but given how Arizona has the whole intense debate over illegal aliens that affects them directly, I would have expected Hispanics to be much more Democratic than they actually were.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Reagent said:
Same methodology. Mormonism™ is the probable explanation.
Click to expand...
I mean, I get that, but it's such a sharp divide at the state border. I guess when you do Idaho it might clear it up as there is considerable cross-border spillover I believe.
 
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