Could WWII in Europe Have Lasted Long Enough for the Atomic Bomb to be Dropped on Germany?

[Look More Closely Later]

Average alternate universe outcome there is the US Army acquires earlier experience leading it to reach its eventual effectiveness of 1945, but at the end of 1943.

I suspect that at least some of the board-games you play (further edit: if that is where your 'Average alternate universe outcome' numbers come from) fail to properly represent and model Mountbatten's ability in the real world to utterly mess things up - and Mountbatten was very much in Europe still (and the man with responsibility for (or at least oversight of) the original timeline 'Operation Jubilee' Dieppe raid) in 1942 in the original timeline.

Edit:
Apologies, but I'm not sure it's possible to keep Mountbatten out of the way of getting involved in a major 1942 French landing. He 'knows' too many people.

 

[Amadeus]

A radically alternate scenario is France survives 1940 & is still in the fight, & then late that year lucks into the proper course to a atomic weapon by mid 1944, or earlier. One can find such 'radical luck' scenarios for the Brits & US as. All three had much of the key information at hand in 1940, but were not seeing how it fit together.

Would France, even if led by an efficient democratic government, even have the resources and brainpower to not only build an atomic bomb - but do so a year earlier than the United States? I find this doubtful. Moreover, a Free France that survives 1940 would almost certainly lead Germany to lose the war earlier than May 1945.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Abwehr agent Johnny Jebsen (code name ARTIST) defects to the Allies in early 1944. ARTIST is one of the top men in the Abwehr station in Madrid, which controls most of the German agents in Britain, and he knows all about them. The British then arrest all those agents.

This is a disaster, because they are all Double-Cross agents feeding lies to to Germany, including a very large proportion of the BODYGUARD deception. Without them, BODYGUARD is much less effective.

(OTL, ARTIST made it clear he wanted to defect, which terrified the XX Committee that ran Double-Cross. They even considered having him killed. ARTIST wanted a deal, and exposed a few agents as a sample, but they were so valuable the British kept them running. The XX Committee feared that the Gestapo would catch on to ARTIST's plot, and the Abwehr would see that the "exposed agents" had kept running, and realize that all the intelligence coming from Britain must be lies. Then BODYGUARD backfires.

ARTIST was arrested by the Gestapo in April 1944, but for embezzling Abwehr funds. He was executed without revealing anything else.)

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Would France, even if led by an efficient democratic government, even have the resources and brainpower to not only build an atomic bomb - but do so a year earlier than the United States?

Not if they run two programs as did the US, and do so in a fast track 'screw the cost' manner. A bit more method, planning, and time can save a lot of cash. This is not a far edge item as France had a physics research 'infrastructure' still as advanced or more so than the US which had been playing catch up in the 1930s. They also had most of the key physicists in their labs and working, vs the hiatus, after the collapse. Its also unlikely France will be doing this alone. The circumstances, particularly if Germany is not collapsing in 1941-42 as hoped would have Britain and perhaps eventually the US contributing.

I find this doubtful. Moreover, a Free France that survives 1940 would almost certainly lead Germany to lose the war earlier than May 1945.

Probably, but we have to recognize scenarios where Germany staggers on. A path in that direction is the USSR continues to support Germany economically to keep the western nations in their war.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Edit:
Apologies, but I'm not sure it's possible to keep Mountbatten out of the way of getting involved in a major 1942 French landing. He 'knows' too many people.

I noticed that while his Combined Operations staff was heavily involved in planning for the GYMNAST and TORCH operations he had no command role in any of those. Curious that Churchill favored a untried & junior US general over one of his favorite admirals.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

I noticed that while his Combined Operations staff was heavily involved in planning for the GYMNAST and TORCH operations he had no command role in any of those. Curious that Churchill favored a untried & junior US general over one of his favorite admirals.

Original timeline, we had Dieppe ('Operation Jubilee') in August 1942. Even if Mountbatten managed to pass the blame even partially on to others, I doubt that after that Roosevelt would have agreed to Mountbatten being allowed anywhere near command of American forces.
Although apparently Churchill was using Mountbatten as a telegram boy in September of 1942:

Prime Minister to Mr. Harry Hopkins (4 Sept 42)
I send you by the hand of Dickie Mountbatten this letter...

-'The Final Shaping of Torch' (The Second World War, Volume IV, Winston Churchill)

 

[RanulfC]

Roosevelt insists on a landing in France in summer 1942 instead of Torch and it goes disastrously wrong?

Average alternate universe outcome there is the US Army acquires earlier experience leading it to reach its eventual effectiveness of 1945, but at the end of 1943.

Sorry but like the British the American military already were aware and able to handle politicians suggesting "helpful" operations so I'm not sure how much 'experience' would be gained

Seriously the American's wanted "Torch" as much as the British simply because the Army was well aware how lacking it was in both doctrine and experience and it needed both before it could even consider going into France.

Randy

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

ARTIST was arrested by the Gestapo in April 1944, but for embezzling Abwehr funds. He was executed without revealing anything else.)

This was when Himmler was acting out his effort to take over the Abwehr. Ironic the GESTAPO was all over some low grade embezzlement (possibly faked) & missed the entire Double Cross package of operations. I guess sucking up to Hitler included not examining the Abwehrs operations that Hitler favored.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Ironic the GESTAPO was all over some low grade embezzlement (possibly faked) & missed the entire Double Cross package of operations.

Nah, ARTIST was definitely on the fiddle - as were other Abwehr operatives in Spain. They took a cut of the funds (provided in foreign currency) for support of agents in Britain.

He was pretty much an opportunist. That was part of what scared the XX Committee. They couldn't accept his offer to defect. But by that refusal, and by not acting on the agent IDs he had provided, they pretty much revealed Double-Cross to him. And since he wasn't going to get anything from the British, he might turn around and curry favor with his bosses by exposing Double-Cross. Even assassinating him was dangerous, as all his papers would be seized by the Germans, and might include the exposé.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Sorry but like the British the American military already were aware and able to handle politicians suggesting "helpful" operations so I'm not sure how much 'experience' would be gained

Seriously the American's wanted "Torch" as much as the British simply because the Army was well aware how lacking it was in both doctrine and experience and it needed both before it could even consider going into France.

Randy

Not my take, but this leads off topic..

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Nah, ARTIST was definitely on the fiddle - as were other Abwehr operatives in Spain. They took a cut of the funds (provided in foreign currency) for support of agents in Britain.

He was pretty much an opportunist. That was part of what scared the XX Committee. They couldn't accept his offer to defect. But by that refusal, and by not acting on the agent IDs he had provided, they pretty much revealed Double-Cross to him. And since he wasn't going to get anything from the British, he might turn around and curry favor with his bosses by exposing Double-Cross. Even assassinating him was dangerous, as all his papers would be seized by the Germans, and might include the exposé.

Ah the tangled web we weave...

 

[RanulfC]

Ah the tangled web we weave...

Well I suppose technically "tangled" is WHY we weave them after all

Randy

 

[James Ricker]

If the Germans withdrew from Normandy ,did not conduct the Battle of the Bulge and were able to withdraw their troops from Norway and Courland
It would have been a possibility

 

[James Ricker]

No TV in 1945.

Wrong, television was in its infancy in the late 1930s but the war put its growth on hold

 

[Whiteshore]

So something to piss off the Allies, like V2 gas attacks on children and mass televised slaughter of POWs.

They most likely wouldn’t do this. Hitler didn’t use chemical weapons when he had nothing left to lose and Soviet soldiers were a mile from his bunker in 1945. They also never televised mass killing since there would be no point and even Hitler knew some things were too far or better kept quiet. He wasn’t completely ignorant of public opinion.

Well, a botched Valkyrie which leaves Hitler dead but Himmler takes over akin to Footprint of Mussolini could be a good POD for having chemical weapons or mass executions of POWs be carried out.

 

[Captain Homicide]

Well, a botched Valkyrie which leaves Hitler dead but Himmler takes over akin to Footprint of Mussolini could be a good POD for having chemical weapons or mass executions of POWs be carried out.

Himmler in charge in 1944 would be interesting and nightmarish. I can only imagine what him, Goebbels and Bormann would get up to.

 

[Whiteshore]

Himmler in charge in 1944 would be interesting and nightmarish. I can only imagine what him, Goebbels and Bormann would get up to.

Well, Footprint of Mussolini, regardless of what you think of it, IMO shows the madhouse Nazi Germany would have been had Himmler taken over if Valkyrie had succeeded in killing Hitler but failed to overthrow the government. In addition to the chemical weapons usage on both the Allies and domestic rebels, Himmler there goes full Stalin on the Wehrmacht (culminating in merging the Wehrmacht and the SS), ratches up executions for defeatism, and tries to escape to Japan by submarine to continue fighting.

 

[Captain Homicide]

Well, Footprint of Mussolini, regardless of what you think of it, IMO shows the madhouse Nazi Germany would have been had Himmler taken over if Valkyrie had succeeded in killing Hitler but failed to overthrow the government. In addition to the chemical weapons usage on both the Allies and domestic rebels, Himmler there goes full Stalin on the Wehrmacht (culminating in merging the Wehrmacht and the SS), ratches up executions for defeatism, and tries to escape to Japan by submarine to continue fighting.

And to think one of Himmler’s favorite words was “decency.” He even went as far as to remind the SS to observe the speed limit and demanded fairness at sports events.

 

[marktaha]

If the bomb is dropped on Germany it will largely be as political statement, showing its power to the Soviets and allowing the US to claim it was the threat of nuclear annihilation that brought about German surrender in the end. I can see them dropping it somewhere more symbolic than pragmatic, such as Nuremberg.

Hitler doesn't interfere with the generals and lets them fight their way.

 

[Garrison]

Hitler doesn't interfere with the generals and lets them fight their way.

I can't see that for 1945 Hitler and if he did he's sacked or killed most of the competent Generals.