Could Operation Sealion have worked?

[Cockroach]

1. In Stalingrad, you had longer distances and 600.000 people too feed and arm, plus half a panzer army to fuel (4th panzer was not completely encircled). So why would airsupply be a problem ?

The Luftwaffe even working at the it's top rate was unable to supply sufficient food supplies for the troops that ended up encircled. Now consider doing that but also needing to put a dent in a sizable fleet, act as flying artillary, bomb british industry etc. all in the vital days.

How many tanks did Britain have after Dunkirk ? From what I hear, exactly after, there were no more than 100. Not a thousand, not ten thousand, but a hundret. Now that has to be a problem, don't u think ?

Well, any immediate Paratrooper landing (yes, with NO AT guns) is breakfast for those hundered tanks (even assuining your numbers are correct which I doubt) and if you wait the two to four months to get the transport orgnised for a major attack then the poms will have had the time to make good most of their losses.

Also, the ideea was not only to take the beaches, but also a cuple of airfields where to lad troops. Even if those airfields fell to a british counterattack, they would stilll delay them long enough for the troops on the beach to dig in.

If you take "to dig in" as to scratch out a few shallow foxhole then maybe. But it is not long enought for any serious effort.

And what "heavily fortified" B.S. are you talking about ? MG positions in houses or the traditional single trench, occupied by 3 old men and one of their grandsons ?

Looks like you base your understanding of WW2 on a single episode of Dad's Army.
The British had 400,000 frontline troops avalible in OTL plus assorted Home Guards, Territorials, half-train Regualars, etc.
That number of men with rifles and LMGs alone would be dangerous. But of cause by the time the Jerries are orginised to cross the channel much of the lost equipment has been replace.

BTW: Could you consider trying to spell one in ten words correctly rather than your current one in fifty-million.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Magnum: Your comments about the naval and air side of the conflict, besides being outside my area of expertise, aren't coherent enough for me to respond to. I will ask you, when the 160,000 Germans somehow make it ashore, what makes you say that they won't be opposed? Cockroach is correct, there were a sizable number of frontline troops, including armored forces, not far from the landing areas.
Some years ago, British Army staff wargamed Sea Lion, assuming that all the German forces made it ashore unopposed. I don't recall the title of the book, or have it handy, but the conclusion was, in the best-case scenario, the German forces made it about 15 miles inland before being destroyed.

 

[Magnum]

What was Dad's army like ? I never saw it. Did watch a lot of Discovery Channel though..
Listen. At Stalingrad, u didn't have all the JU-52's in the world. There were those in France, Norway and Africa. But here u don't have either Russia or North Africa, so I guess there would be more aircraft instead of less (or at least as many) bringing supplies to fewer men. And the Luftwaffe doesn't have a multi-role fighter like today who carries out all tasks. So it would be bombers taking out the RN, transport aircraft "transporting", and fighters providing support against the RAF. And u don't have to bomb the industry, only to support a landing. If the Luftwaffe did not have air superiority, than Sealion would truly be impossible
"(even assuining your numbers are correct which I doubt)"
even what ?
"But of cause by the time the Jerries are orginised"
what cause ?

 

[rewster]

The Luftwaffe even working at the it's top rate was unable to supply sufficient food supplies for the troops that ended up encircled. Now consider doing that but also needing to put a dent in a sizable fleet, act as flying artillary, bomb british industry etc. all in the vital days.

Well, any immediate Paratrooper landing (yes, with NO AT guns) is breakfast for those hundered tanks (even assuining your numbers are correct which I doubt) and if you wait the two to four months to get the transport orgnised for a major attack then the poms will have had the time to make good most of their losses.

If you take "to dig in" as to scratch out a few shallow foxhole then maybe. But it is not long enought for any serious effort.

Looks like you base your understanding of WW2 on a single episode of Dad's Army.
The British had 400,000 frontline troops avalible in OTL plus assorted Home Guards, Territorials, half-train Regualars, etc.
That number of men with rifles and LMGs alone would be dangerous. But of cause by the time the Jerries are orginised to cross the channel much of the lost equipment has been replace.

BTW: Could you consider trying to spell one in ten words correctly rather than your current one in fifty-million.

To be fair, your spelling is just as bad. I fail to see what that has to do with the argument though.

 

[Magnum]

srry to double-post.
the wargames at sandhurst I think, assumed the germans did not have air superiority. And yes, the germans who landed would be in big trouble, but their still very good soldiers, and, just like in Narvik, all they had to do was hang in there untill enough reinforcements arrived. I also sayd early on, that a large scale invasion would not be the best option, rather a concentrated attack in the Dover area, without all the other attaks all along the south coast. If I had not seen what happened at Narvik, I would say, just like u, that Sealion would be impossible. It's not 100% sure the germans would win, in fact, I give the brits better chances than the "jerries", but that doesn't mean they have 0 chances...

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

srry to double-post.
the wargames at sandhurst I think, assumed the germans did not have air superiority. And yes, the germans who landed would be in big trouble, but their still very good soldiers, and, just like in Narvik, all they had to do was hang in there untill enough reinforcements arrived. I also sayd early on, that a large scale invasion would not be the best option, rather a concentrated attack in the Dover area, without all the other attaks all along the south coast. If I had not seen what happened at Narvik, I would say, just like u, that Sealion would be impossible. It's not 100% sure the germans would win, in fact, I give the brits better chances than the "jerries", but that doesn't mean they have 0 chances...

Fair enough. Still assuming complete German air and sea dominance, they might be able to hold a beach head long enough to get significant ground forces in place. This, however, negates the paras. Unless they're dropped within a few miles of Dover to slow down British reinforcements headed there, they're going to be isolated and slaughtered.
The real question is how the Germans are going to break out of this theoretical Dover pocket, with the whole weight of the British Army concentrated against them. Look at the trouble that the British and Americans had in their first few months in Normandy to get an idea of the scale of the problem.

 

[Magnum]

thx. I would guess it would be a slugging match for a couple of months, untill the german superiority in quality and quantity would be too much for the brits to bare. If they survived the intial large scale counterattack, I guess the germans would have a better chance of winning, even if it would take them at least 5 months to reach Loch Ness. although the monster there could be a problem

 

[Magnum]

again, what was Dad's army like, u made me curious

 

[67th Tigers]

http://orbat.com/site/history/volume4/446/British Defensive Deployment Against Operation.pdf

 

[Saladin]

Some years ago, British Army staff wargamed Sea Lion, assuming that all the German forces made it ashore unopposed. I don't recall the title of the book, or have it handy, but the conclusion was, in the best-case scenario, the German forces made it about 15 miles inland before being destroyed.

The book is Sea Lion by Richard Cox. Invasion 1940 by Peter Fleming is worth a look too

 

[67th Tigers]

again, what was Dad's army like, u made me curious

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dads_Army

 

[Andrei]

thx. I would guess it would be a slugging match for a couple of months, untill the german superiority in quality and quantity would be too much for the brits to bare. If they survived the intial large scale counterattack, I guess the germans would have a better chance of winning, even if it would take them at least 5 months to reach Loch Ness. although the monster there could be a problem

I think that the British economy , unlike the German economy , was already on a war footing in 1940. The British outproduced the Germans until 1944 . Also , the British would have enjoyed American support through lend-lease.

In Norway and Crete , the British didn't have much air support. But if the Germans had landed at Dover , the RAF would have sent all its squadrons south , to support the Royal Navy. Since the RAF was pretty succesfull in protecting the British ships during the Dunkirk evacuation , I think it could have been succesfull in protecting the RN for several days , plenty of time to sink the German barges .
In OTL , only the squadrons from Southern England were afected by German bombings , but not the ones that were protecting the Midlands and the North. The anihilation of the RAF ( I'm not even sure it would have been possible , because the British were producing more planes than they were losing ) would have taken time , time in which the British ground forces would have become stronger.

For a succesfull Sealion , a string of events , some of them unlikely , would have had to happen :
- the weather in the Channel is calm for at least a week , so the German barges don't capsize and are able to land , resupply and reinforce their troops ( 200,000 German troops wouldn't have been enough to conquer Britain and once the barges are sunk , the Germans wouldn't be able to land significant numbers of soldiers )
- the RAF fails to offer some degree of protection to the Royal Navy
- the Royal Navy fails to sink the German barges because it's attacked by the Luftwaffe
- the British counterattacks fail.
- the German troops don't bogg down in Kent
- Churchill is overthrown and the new British government sues for peace

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

thx. I would guess it would be a slugging match for a couple of months, untill the german superiority in quality and quantity would be too much for the brits to bare. If they survived the intial large scale counterattack, I guess the germans would have a better chance of winning, even if it would take them at least 5 months to reach Loch Ness. although the monster there could be a problem

I just realized that I didn't point this out earlier. As you stated, the only way the Germans have the ghost of a chance is if they concentrate their forces in one area and break out (as the Allies did in Operation Overlord). This was the course of action that Britain feared and structured its forces to overcome. However, Sea Lion planned for landings from Devon to Kent, which would have been much easier for the British Army to destroy piecemeal.

 

[Derek Jackson]

Sealion was, thankfully, a long shot. However if the RAF had been decisively defeated, and U Boats were able to make life uncomfortable for the RN and if there had been better equiped and trained aircraft aimed at shipping??

Plus if the Nazis had quick initial success there are some further risks. The thing was that the memories of really quick Nazi victories would be there. Panic and the self fulfilling prophesy is a real risk.


A much bigger risk would have been a decision to postpone the attack on Russia and high priority given to the Battle of the Atlantic.

 

[MrP]

How many tanks did Britain have after Dunkirk? From what I hear, exactly after there were no more than 100. Not a thousand, not ten thousand, but a hundred. Now that has to be a problem, don't you think ?

British AFV production in WWII.

Info on the Home Guard - the LDV as it would have been during any Sealion.

Incidentally, I don't think anyone feels that the RN's major surface units would have been necessary for achieving victory over the invasion fleet. As I see it, in this prospective scenario the Luftwaffe is tasked with

• protecting the invasion barges by destroying the RN's capability to perform successful offensive operations,
• permitting a successful initial landing and subsequent exploitation by defeating the RAF's defensive capability,
• resupplying the invasion forces once the barges are lost - and unless you change the barges, they shall be lost eventually. They're riparian craft, not oceanic.

As has been noted above, a far earlier PoD is preferable if you want a reasonable successful Sealion.

The Wiki page on Sealion.

 

[Redbeard]

If ORBAT's could determine the outcome of battles/wars then the German campaign in Poland should have been very long and a close run and the campaign in France a smashing German defeat, not to mention Barbarossa inside the first weeks.

The British Army in 2nd half of 1940 was a paper tiger, not only short of modern equipment, but more importantly with deficient training and leadership. Reading Alanbrooke's war diaries is very sobering, he became commander of home forces after Dunkirk and found Divisional commanders worth their title very rare. Especially the uncensored version published a few years ago clearly show Alanbrooke's desperation over the home forces hardly capable of fighting with cohesion at above battalion level.

Such a force would, no matter its size, be doomed against a much smaller German 1940 force.

The problem of Sea Lion will not be defeating the British Army or transporting forces across the Channel, but in gaining air and especially seacontrol.

Aircontrol is probably not enough, as the Luftwaffe by 1940 wasn't efficient enough to stop a Royal Navy fighting for survial (no topedobomber capacity worth mentioning - a few He 115 IRRC). A PoD to change this will need years of advance and might risk removing the Luftwaffe from its OTL ground support role enough to also change the campaign in France.

Sea control is IMO even more difficult to gain for Germany. If she in time goes for a major naval programme, that will be exactly what is needed to have UK put a stop to Hitler much earlier. The OTL German naval forces, even if avoiding the Norway losses, will need much more than ordinary luck to gain and keep the necessary seacontrol.

I can find a small window of opportunity in a PoD where the Italian and British Mediterranean Fleets meet just after the Italian entry into the war and with a smashing Italian victory (not unplausible), and the bulk of Italian Navy then deploying to the Channel to cover an invasion. That would give an Axis force of 8 fast battleships (2 VV, 4 AD/CC, two Scharnhorst) + numerous modern cruisers, DDs and subs. In combination with airsuperiority that might be enough to beat the remnants of the RN, but don't take anything for granted.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[rewster]

Oh yeah, the Italians... hmmm... what about the Japanese?
What if they didn't bomb Pearl Harbor, keeping the US out of the war, and then, after acheiving their objectives by 1942, sent a chunk of their fleet to assist their allies, making a run around Africa and engaging the RN? God knows why they would do that, instead of just calling their war over and counting their spoils... but what if they did?

 

[MrP]

Oh yeah, the Italians... hmmm... what about the Japanese?
What if they didn't bomb Pearl Harbor, keeping the US out of the war, and then, after acheiving their objectives by 1942, sent a chunk of their fleet to assist their allies, making a run around Africa and engaging the RN? God knows why they would do that, instead of just calling their war over and counting their spoils... but what if they did?

Neah, they'd be denuding themselves of protection for no reason other than to help Hitler.

 

[RCTFI]

What about...

Okay, as for the Luftwaffe torpedo bombers OTL, let's say that some of the extra production they get from not reducing but rather expanding aircraft production after the fall of Paris is spent on a "new and improved" torpedo bomber meant to attack the Royal Navy, while some is also spent on more fighters and heavy bombers...
And maybe that they set up some sort of program to mass produce transports a la the "Liberty Ship" program of the U.S. (let's call them the "Fascism ships", eh?) which they use for troop transport... I don't know for sure, but I'm willing to bet that those changes, combined with the men and materiel lost at Dunkirk (and the resulting demoralization of the British public), a German victory might have been possible - especially if they built up to the invasion with concentration of their aerial assets on the RAF and Royal Navy. Add in possible Italian intervention (since the Brits would be having a harder time of it in Africa and the Mediterranian without the BEF, no?), and you've got a recipe for a succesful Sealion - right? That's what I can see...
(And the Italians really might have done that, if the BEF was gone, leaving their African armies all but unopposed).

Throw in the German General Staff with its proven strategic abilities in command of the invasion force, and it looks quite likely to succede...

 

[Torqumada]

Germany doesn't have the industrial capacity to build "Liberty ships" like the USA did. Only the USA could have done that. Also, it takes time to develop and produce a torpedo bomber. You just don't whip up a plane that a country has no real experience with and expect it to work correctly. It takes planning and testing, or else you have a failure on your hands. Its possible within a year ro so, but then how strong are the defenses going to be in the UK? Germany can certainly invade, but it is going to lose, especially since its trying to take out the USSR at the same time. You said you get your information from TV. Maybe you need to turn the television off and read a few books. You would be surprised at what you can learn.

Torqumada