Could Edward IV's plans have come together?

[Avrorrange]

The biggest mistake I think Edward IV made was in his war against France. Louis the Spider had a really weak situation with the Burgundian threat, and Edward had amassed a formidable army, was a great commander, and had the potential to drive home a real English return to the continent.

By basically being paid off, he alienated his brothers, who expected offices and riches, and missed a big opportunity to take advantage of a weakened France. The history of English betrothals to the French crown is mostly a failed one.

A far better plan would have been to marry Cecily or Elizabeth of York to Francis II of Brittany, with Brittany's rights and even territorial claims being asserted in a conflict with France in exchange for giving up the Lancasters.

England's claims on France were a very real objective. Many of Edward's supporters had lands they still considered theirs in France. The funding for the war, the army, the situation, it was all there for a great campaign ending in land concessions that were serious. Aquitaine, or at least Gascony, Normandy, and perhaps even Anjou, as well as an expanded Pale, were possible

I think he saw clearly that France would be a gigantic money pit. Edward III and Henry V both made significant gains in France, but the French just ended up reconquering their territory.It’s not a civil war where nobles will switch sides because you won big in a pitch battle or two. The territory’s also too big, and the English army too low in number to really concentrate against repeated attacks by the French.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If you want Charles VIII dumping Elizabeth of York for someone who is not Margaret of Austria the only realistic choice is Catherine of Navarre (his first cousin and Queen of a small reign at the French borders)

I like this match for TTL, since it ties up the marriage web nicely (since the Signor of Albret marrying someone else isn't really a big deal in its own right).

 

[isabella]

I like this match for TTL, since it ties up the marriage web nicely (since the Signor of Albret marrying someone else isn't really a big deal in its own right).

I guess Jean can marry a surviving Isabeau of Brittany

 

[mcdnab]

I've always thought the success or lack thereof of marriages for Edward's children depends in part on a) when he dies - a King's daughter is more attractive than a King's sister (especially if the King has a lot of them lol), b) European politics at the point Edward is seeking to formalise arrangements - how important is England as an ally at that point etc, c) Family and dynastic links and d) at what date do you make the matches etc.

When i did my own timeline on this I freely admit to working the politics to get the matches for Edward's children through - and I also admit it was a bit overambitious to get them all through.

Here's what I thought was likely based on a 1483 POD (the time Edward IV survives his Easter chill and lives on) - Edward IV is fuming with France for dumping his daughter - with the encouragement of his sister Margaret of Burgundy he suggests an alliance with the equally aggrieved Maximilian in a post Treaty of Arras temper - hence Elizabeth marries Max as his second wife in 1483/4 - the same treaty discussions commits the two to an alliance of mutual support etc and Max agrees with no firm commitment of the match of Anne of York to his son Philip.
In late 1484 Francis of Brittany finally agrees to formalise the match of Anne of Brittany and Edward Prince of Wales - his own behaviour though and his continuing disputes with the French regent prompts war - to get the match to survive you have to ensure an Anglo Breton force defeats the French ( reversing the Battle of Saint-Aubin-du-Cormier in OTL) - the French are humiliated and Edward gets his hands on Anne of Brittany.

In 1489 he concludes a treaty with Ferdinand and Isabella for the match of Catherine of York and their son and heir Juan - Ferdinand is keen for English support to distract France (over Naples, Navarre and Roussillon etc) - long delays hit the match as Ferdinand hopes for better offers and delays over her dower payments - Catherine though is sent to Spain and lives in Isabella's household perhaps concerned for the need for an heir the couple eventually marry. (I chose to kill Juan on schedule and have Catherine give birth to a posthumous son).

To get the Scots match - allied with Spain and Maximilian - Edward is relatively powerful but the French and Scots make a formal treaty in the same year and launch an offensive aiming to recover Brittany etc - Edward narrowly wins and James IV is captured - Cecily as his wife (who he has rejected several times) is the price of his freedom.

Of all the matches the one that might be difficult will be the Philip and Anne of York one (given there might be stronger matches around after Edward's death not withstanding the obvious political advantage), it will be touch and go for the Catherine and Juan one as well though it might suit Ferdinand politically.
It is feasible to get them all though.

The House of Plantagenet-York in 1492.
1) Elizabeth of York (b1466) married 1484 Maximilian of Austria King of The Romans, Archduke of Austria etc - Had ISSUE
1a) Archduke Frederick of Austria (born 1486)
1b) Archduchess Eleanor of Austria (born 1487)
1c) Archduke Charles of Austria (born 1491 d 1492)
2) Cecily of York (born 1469) married 1490 James IV King of Scots and had issue
2a) Princess Mary of Scots (b1491)
3) Edward V King of England (b1470) married 1490 Anne Duchess of Brittany (b1477) and had issue
3a) Edward Duke of Cornwall Prince of Wales (born November 1492)
4) Richard Duke of York and Norfolk (born 1473) - married 1) Anne Mowbray (d1481)
5) Anne of York (born 1475) betrothed 1484 Philip (born 1478) Duke of Burgundy, Brabant, Limburg and Lothier, Duke of Luxemburg etc
6) Catherine of York (b1479) betrothed 1489 to Juan Prince of the Asturias (b1478)
7) Bridget of York (1480)

 

[isabella]

I think Maximilian and Elizabeth’s sons are more likely to be called Ernest and Edward/Maximilian/Richard.

 

[Old1812]

I think Maximilian and Elizabeth’s sons are more likely to be called Ernest and Edward/Maximilian/Richard

A son named after Ernest the Iron could be interesting, I'd completely forgotten about him.

 

[isabella]

A son named after Ernest the Iron could be interesting, I'd completely forgotten about him.

Maximilian and his father pretty much despised (if not hated) each other so Max is unlikely to call any of his sons after him... Naming the boy after his own grandfather (or with names from his wife’s family) is more logical... the girl will be Eleanor without any doubt and the next one Elizabeth...

I think the match between Philip and Anne of York had much more chances to go ahead than see her dumped for some other girl as Margaret of York would want her niece as wife for her step-grandson and an alliance with England is aways a top choice for Burgundy (judging from Charles V’s matrimonial interests Philip of his own would want either an English or French match and France has both nobody to offer and Philip’s sister was already forced to a French match) plus the OTL alliance between Empire and Spain happened years after the logical date for the ATL wedding of Philip and Anne (and truly as rank and other Juana of Spain is the only match at the level of Anne of England)

 

[mcdnab]

I think Maximilian and Elizabeth’s sons are more likely to be called Ernest and Edward/Maximilian/Richard.

Fair enough Isabella - i opted for Frederick in honour of the Emperor (there relationship was certainly testy but despise is a bit much lol) but I agree and think Ernst would probably be more likely than Charles/Karl.

I think the Anne and Philip is a bit hit and miss - a lot might depend on the date the marriage takes place and who else is around - especially if Philip is still declared of age at 16 in 1494 (his father having succeeded as Emperor the year before) - he might not want to honour his earlier betrothal if other options appeal more. Much will depend on Philip's eagerness to get married and have issue and his personal view of the betrothal - Anne of is age, the paperwork is done etc - however it might also depend on the international politics at the time and the state of the Anglo-Burgundian alliance at the time. In a tl with no peace of Senlis he might of course be still in conflict with France which makes an English or Spanish match more useful - However the Emperor will still probably favour an English match (there aren't many other choices) especially if Charles VIII has stuck with Margaret of Austria (which in a tl with no match with Anne of Brittany possible is very likely) so there's no double offer for Maximilian to make as in OTL.
It of course means a young Edward V facing a very different Europe - in which he is tied by marriage to Austria, Spain, Burgundy and Scotland - not of course that that guarantees peace lol. And it certainly makes for a very hesitant France with that alliance opposing it.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

A son named after Ernest the Iron could be interesting, I'd completely forgotten about him.

Not sure how true this is, but Maximilian originally (apparently) wanted to name Philippe the Handsome "Ernst". He only went with Philippe as a "sop" to the Burgundians (or, if you believe the plotline of Maximilian: Spiel von Macht und Liebe, Marie overrules him, reminds him that she's the duchess, not Max).

 

[isabella]

Fair enough Isabella - i opted for Frederick in honour of the Emperor (there relationship was certainly testy but despise is a bit much lol) but I agree and think Ernst would probably be more likely than Charles/Karl.

I think the Anne and Philip is a bit hit and miss - a lot might depend on the date the marriage takes place and who else is around - especially if Philip is still declared of age at 16 in 1494 (his father having succeeded as Emperor the year before) - he might not want to honour his earlier betrothal if other options appeal more. Much will depend on Philip's eagerness to get married and have issue and his personal view of the betrothal - Anne of is age, the paperwork is done etc - however it might also depend on the international politics at the time and the state of the Anglo-Burgundian alliance at the time. In a tl with no peace of Senlis he might of course be still in conflict with France which makes an English or Spanish match more useful - However the Emperor will still probably favour an English match (there aren't many other choices) especially if Charles VIII has stuck with Margaret of Austria (which in a tl with no match with Anne of Brittany possible is very likely) so there's no double offer for Maximilian to make as in OTL.
It of course means a young Edward V facing a very different Europe - in which he is tied by marriage to Austria, Spain, Burgundy and Scotland - not of course that that guarantees peace lol. And it certainly makes for a very hesitant France with that alliance opposing it.

My point is who from a Burgundian‘s prospective England or France are the best matches and France has no real princess to offer and has already taken Margaret as bride for their king, plus Anne of York is niece of the much loved Dowager Duchess Margaret. With an already standing engagement I think the wedding will happen between 1492 and 1494 (so between four and two years earlier than the Austro-Spanish bethrotals)

 

[mcdnab]

My point is who from a Burgundian‘s prospective England or France are the best matches and France has no real princess to offer and has already taken Margaret as bride for their king, plus Anne of York is niece of the much loved Dowager Duchess Margaret. With an already standing engagement I think the wedding will happen between 1492 and 1494 (so between four and two years earlier than the Austro-Spanish bethrotals)

Oh I agree i think from the Burgundian perspective it is - in rank she's the highest available apart from the Spanish princesses of course. The political alliance is already in place given Elizabeth's and her aunt Margaret's marriages of course - so it doesn't necessarily offer Philip much more on that front - and quite frankly financially she was a bad option. My slight issue is I think the estates might take issue with too early a marriage for Philip dictated by his father - that's why I've always opted for a 94 to 96 marriage once Philip was of age - and he as said might have a different view to his father on the advantages of the match. Also if Burgundy is involved in conflict then the teenage Philip may need to make a different even less advantageous match based on the needs of any peace treaty (just as his sister was forced into a betrothal with Charles VIII a decade earlier) for example.
I do think if Burgundy is at peace then Philip will honour the match and marry her but i would suspect the date is more likely to be 95 or 6 - but you might get away with 94 as Maximilian's final act of controlling his son.

 

[mcdnab]

Just to add if all the matches did happen - then marriages in the early 16th Century are gonna be very complex with first cousins on the thrones of England, Spain, Scotland and Burgundy lol

 

[isabella]

Oh I agree i think from the Burgundian perspective it is - in rank she's the highest available apart from the Spanish princesses of course. The political alliance is already in place given Elizabeth's and her aunt Margaret's marriages of course - so it doesn't necessarily offer Philip much more on that front - and quite frankly financially she was a bad option. My slight issue is I think the estates might take issue with too early a marriage for Philip dictated by his father - that's why I've always opted for a 94 to 96 marriage once Philip was of age - and he as said might have a different view to his father on the advantages of the match. Also if Burgundy is involved in conflict then the teenage Philip may need to make a different even less advantageous match based on the needs of any peace treaty (just as his sister was forced into a betrothal with Charles VIII a decade earlier) for example.
I do think if Burgundy is at peace then Philip will honour the match and marry her but i would suspect the date is more likely to be 95 or 6 - but you might get away with 94 as Maximilian's final act of controlling his son.

The point is who the main supporter of said match would not be Maximilian but Dowager Duchess Margaret and as Margaret was childless and Elizabeth had not married in Burgundy, ties between Burgundy and England are pretty thin and indirect so is likely who the Burgundian estates will be totally in favor of the match. Juana was imposed on Philip by his father, but Anne of York would be a good choice for everyone (Burgundy do not need a big dowry).
I said 1492 for the wedding (aka as soon Philip reach the legal age for it) as Philip will need to marry and have heirs as soon is possible for guaranteeing the independence of burgundy with Margaret married in France

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Since we have an idea on what the York marital *alliance* system, and the affected royal marriage web of Europe as a whole, looks like, that raises the next question - how does this affect the foreign policies of the European powers as a whole? And how does that, in turn, affect Europe? For example - how is the power of the Kingdom of France affected by all this?

 

[Old1812]

Wouldn't a Spanish match for Philip be better, at least to Max? An alliance with England is nice, but for the time being, England is a weak, broke kingdom still recovering from two decades of bloody civil war.

Since we have an idea on what the York marital *alliance* system, and the affected royal marriage web of Europe as a whole, looks like, that raises the next question - how does this affect the foreign policies of the European powers as a whole? And how does that, in turn, affect Europe? For example - how is the power of the Kingdom of France affected by all this?

Question: is there a war over Brittany, and who wins? This is important for gauging what France's strategy is here. I expect the Italian Wars will be replaced with the Hundred Years War 2.0, as Brittany is a knife constantly pointed right at France's heart.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Question: is there a war over Brittany, and who wins? This is important for gauging what France's strategy is here. I expect the Italian Wars will be replaced with the Hundred Years War 2.0, as Brittany is a knife constantly pointed right at France's heart.

Holy shit, that’s massive! That in itself is such a massive butterfly it will be felt at the ground level in the German states, in the Reformation, in Eastern Europe...

 

[Old1812]

Holy shit, that’s massive! That in itself is such a massive butterfly it will be felt at the ground level in the German states, in the Reformation, in Eastern Europe...

Second question: does England have realistic goals? They'll never get their old possessions back, despite the nobles whining about them.

No doubt Italy will get involved - Italy is too attractive for the HRE to not make a play for while France is distracted.

How does this affect the Reformation and Eastern Europe?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Related question - supposing that Phillip the Fair has a son with Anne of York, that his father has one with Elizabeth, and that Phillip predeceases his grandfather as OTL... assuming all that, who succeeds Maximillian as Archduke or Austria, Holy Roman Emperor, and King of the Romans, respectively?

 

[isabella]

Wouldn't a Spanish match for Philip be better, at least to Max? An alliance with England is nice, but for the time being, England is a weak, broke kingdom still recovering from two decades of bloody civil war.

Question: is there a war over Brittany, and who wins? This is important for gauging what France's strategy is here. I expect the Italian Wars will be replaced with the Hundred Years War 2.0, as Brittany is a knife constantly pointed right at France's heart.

Maybe that match would be better for Max but likely not worth enough for breaking Philip’s engagement to Anne (and enraging his own wife, elder sister of the rejected bride, their aunt Dowager Duchess Margaret, plus likely the Burgundian estates and Philip himself) and if things go like OTL the opportunity for said match would present itself only when Philip would be already married to Anne.

Related question - supposing that Phillip the Fair has a son with Anne of York, that his father has one with Elizabeth, and that Phillip predeceases his grandfather as OTL... assuming all that, who succeeds Maximillian as Archduke or Austria, Holy Roman Emperor, and King of the Romans, respectively?

Well that is pretty complicated and would depend from a lot of things, including the weddings/engagements of both boy and the support who either will receive from the electors. Austrian lands will be divided between all the sons of Maximilian (with Philip’s sons inheriting and dividing their father’s share) and again who receive the main share will depend from many things. I suspect who Vienna and Austria proper will go to Elizabeth’s eldest son and likely also the Imperial crown (specially if Max was able to marry Eleanor* and Elizabeth* to Vladislaus and Sigismund and Ernest* to Margaret or Sophia of Brandeburg-Ansbach if was unable to get Maria or Catalina of Aragon for him).

*Eleanor, Elizabeth and Ernest are for me the most likely names for the first son and first and second daughter of Maximilian and Elizabeth of York

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Well that is pretty complicated and would depend from a lot of things, including the weddings/engagements of both boy and the support who either will receive from the electors. Austrian lands will be divided between all the sons of Maximilian (with Philip’s sons inheriting and dividing their father’s share) and again who receive the main share will depend from many things. I suspect who Vienna and Austria proper will go to Elizabeth’s eldest son and likely also the Imperial crown (specially if Max was able to marry Eleanor* and Elizabeth* to Vladislaus and Sigismund and Ernest* to Margaret or Sophia of Brandeburg-Ansbach if was unable to get Maria or Catalina of Aragon for him).

*Eleanor, Elizabeth and Ernest are for me the most likely names for the first son and first and second daughter of Maximilian and Elizabeth of York

Well, considering Phillip the Fair is the son of Mary of Burgundy, I would imagine that his children would get first dibs on the Burgundian lands (Flanders, etc), while *Ernst* would be the one to get Vienna. Of the two of them, who would you say is more likely to be Emperor (or do the Electors decide on someone else)?

One small detail I find interesting here is that, depending on how fruitful the marriages of Edward V and his brother Richard are, *Ernst* technically has a claim to the throne of England, which may (or may not) turn out to be a factor later TTL; a minor point, I realize, but I can't help but be tickled at the thought of an English Hapsburg dynasty being an actual possibiliy.