Could Constantinople have held out in 1453?

[htgriffin]

This question occurred to me while I was reading Andrew Wheatcroft's (spelling) account of the siege of Constantinople, as excerpted in John Keegan's 'The Book of War'. I'll admit that I'm not exactly up on this time period, but Wheatcroft points out that, for all they outnumbered and were logistically in a far better position than the defenders, the Ottomans actually took Constantinople largely by luck. Apparently, a small postern gate had been left open, which was noted by alert members of the Ottoman army. Also, a lucky musket shot killed the Genoan commander of Byzantine forces named Justignani.

That's Giustiniani.

My question: what if the gate had been closed and Justignani had ducked?
From that, three questions seem relevant.
1. Could Constantinople itself have held out? I suspect that it might have done, this time, but that it was going to go at some point. I believe the Ottomans had the city virtually surrounded.

I would give it two more weeks, perhaps a month before part of the Theodosian Walls go down or someone presses Constantine XI to surrender on terms (or boots the heretic out)... still, getting bored and going home is a possibility given the opinions of the impudent young sultan's advisors.

2. If Constantinople held out in 1453, what effects would this have held? My guess is that the most dramatic would have been within the Ottoman Empire. Sulimon likely would not have survived a defeat by such a numerically inferior force.

That's Mehmet. And it could well be written off as youthful arrogance resulting in increasing controls by the upper-end commanders (as there were not many living reletives.

Could there have been a protracted power struggle within the Ottoman Empire?

As noted, the alternatives for the throne were few-to-nonexistent.

Would this in turn have given Constantinople a new leese on life?

Doubtful. A city-state and a couple of minor principalities in the Morea do not an empire make when surrounded by a militarily strong and genrally vigorous state. They were already vassals and at best would have had a few decades more under increacingly cowed puppet emperors to the Sultan.

Doubtless the people of Constantinople would have regarded this as a miracle; God's divine hand protecting their city. Would this religiosity--through the Christian Europeans already defending Constantinople--have reached back to Europe? What effect would it have there?

Real unlikely (Greek Schismatics and all that), and not much.

HTG

 

[nunya]

I recently read a book detailing every little event in the seige,for a while near the end it looked like the Byzantines might finally hold out,and the Italians might come to their aid,but then at the last minute someone left a tiny,out of the way gate open,and that was the turning point.The Christians were outnumbered ten-to-one,but it is possible to have the Ottomans lift the siege,you see,by the time they finally broke through with that last assault,the majority of them were dead and they had decided to leave in the next few days if the last attack didnt make it through.

 

[AJNolte]

I recently read a book detailing every little event in the seige,for a while near the end it looked like the Byzantines might finally hold out,and the Italians might come to their aid,but then at the last minute someone left a tiny,out of the way gate open,and that was the turning point.The Christians were outnumbered ten-to-one,but it is possible to have the Ottomans lift the siege,you see,by the time they finally broke through with that last assault,the majority of them were dead and they had decided to leave in the next few days if the last attack didnt make it through.

Yeah, that sounds like the analysis I read as well. What do you think about potential butterflies?