Caribbean slavery never really takes off in the 1500s.

[Lusitania]

But sugar was the primary economic driver of slave trade at the beginning. Starting in Morocco using African or christian slaves and southern Portugal and Spain using Muslim slaves, then in Madeira and canaries using African slaves. This was before Columbus even approached the Portuguese or Spanish court. So therefore the economic principle and model had been cast before the Spanish arrived in Caribbean.

The Spanish tried using the natives as slave labor both in caribbean and in Spain itself but due to disease and work conditions it was soon determined a new source of slaves or labor was required.

 

[Gloss]

Honestly if South Europe had been able to compete with the America in sugar production, we wouldn’t have seen the massive sugar production in America. Maiderwhich is excellent for sugar production and one of the main sugar producers for Europe for over a century was outcompeted by Brazil.

Sugar prices were collapsing before the Americas started raking up in production, between 1350 and 1500 the price of sugar in Northern Atlantic Europe relative to gold declined by almost 50%(honey's price declined by almost 66% during the same time) and it would see a further halving by 1550 and at that point sugar production in Brazil or Caribbean was weak until the late 16th century and only became dominant by 1650, we have about 6 generations inbetween where Old World production was still important in Europe.
Also the Ottoman final takeover of the Eastern Mediterranean island was an important factor in the quadrupling of sugar prices in the last 3 decades of the 16th century.

https://hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/Hort_306/reading/Reading%2034-1.pdf

Also I was not talking about a wholesale replacement, but about reducing the need of oversea sugar production, domestic production for the markets in the Southern Atlantic and Mediterranean in plantations in Macaronesia and the Mediterranean has the advantage of being more secure, involving smaller distances and fewer steps.
This is just another factor to add to other factors such as earlier usage of sugar beet, more use of honey(which I believe was cheap enough) and maybe alternatives to African slave labor, better productivity overall etc.

 

[bpbruce]

Okay, what if Europe went full pothead in the 1500's? Portuguese return from India with spices, including super strong bhang from the Himalayan slopes that becomes the perfect European ditchweed. Booze use slows as people concentrate on simmering seeds in butter, easier than an alcohol still. Carbs are at a munchie premium and don't require so much sugar as long as there's salt. Rum and sugar are less profitable. Hemp sails are cheaper due to extremely widespread cultivation, so world trade speeds up.

 

[GeographyDude]

But sugar was the primary economic driver of slave trade at the beginning. Starting in Morocco using African or christian slaves and southern Portugal and Spain using Muslim slaves, then in Madeira and canaries using African slaves. This was before Columbus even approached the Portuguese or Spanish court. So therefore the economic principle and model had been cast before the Spanish arrived in Caribbean.

Sugar prices were collapsing before the Americas started raking up in production, between 1350 and 1500 the price of sugar in Northern Atlantic Europe relative to gold declined by almost 50%(honey's price declined by almost 66% during the same time) and it would see a further halving by 1550 . . .

That’s what I’d like. Slow down the cane sugar industry as a mid-sized POD.

And say as part of three mid-sized PODs, they together have a big overall effect.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . the price of sugar in Northern Atlantic Europe relative to gold . . .

However . . .

It looks like gold is declining from 1465 forward, with a lot of up and down activity added in.

Gold Was a Horrible Investment from 1500 to 1965

That sound you hear is the gold bubble popping again

www.theatlantic.com

So, in the normal course of things, you’d expect the price of gold to go up for a given quantity of sugar. The fact that it’s falling shows that sugar is really falling.

 

[funnyhat]

Tobacco can kill quickly if you eat it.

Yes, but no one eats it. Europeans would not bring it back to their home country and then ask their monarch to eat it, if they had not tried it first.

 

[BELFAST]

Yes, but no one eats it. Europeans would not bring it back to their home country and then ask their monarch to eat it, if they had not tried it first.

It depends on if she knew how to use it.
There are stories about when potatoes came to Europe first the chef did not know that to do with them so threw away the root and cooked the green parts. Everyone who eat the green parts got sick.
She could have swallowed in by mistake or made a tea from it or soaked in a bath with tobacco in it.
All of those could result in a fatal nicotine overdose.

 

[Gloss]

That’s what I’d like. Slow down the cane sugar industry as a mid-sized POD.

And say as part of three mid-sized PODs, they together have a big overall effect.

An array POD just after 1500 should work well, those could be some changes that could happen around this time which would significantly decrease the need for African slavery in the Caribbean:

• No De Las Casas, the usage of African slavery doesn't formally take over Amerindian slavery and while we would still see eventually the decline of Amerindian slavery, we would alsopostpone the arrival of thousands of slaves in the Caribbean and Spanish Americas for decades.
• The Ottomans fare considerably worse during the 1510s, losing against the Safavid, not conquering the Mameluks and thus are in a worse position to take over the Aegean islands and North Africa.
• I'm not an expert of early modern dynastic history, but I believe it should still be possible to prevent the Habsburg union between Spain and Austria during this time, which would keep Spanish interest away from Central Europe and more firmly in just Italy and North Africa and also give some breathing space to France. The Spanish focus on North Africa would also give Spain access to more sugar domestic production there.
• The Kalmar Union survives, this and the separation between Spain and Austria would create 2 solid colonial powers during this period.
• Colonization of North America by non-Spanish forces starts a century earlier, this would create a demographic basis for productive plantations that wouldn't require slave labor from Africa. This could be done by maybe delaying the reformation by a 2 generations, instead of it polarizing the animosity between the established Spanish colonies and newcomers.
• Quinine and potatoes are popularized earlier(both are from the Andes) and thus Europe would develop a stronger demographic situation which would also decrease the demand for enslaved labor, quinine could also reduce the early mortality to malaria in tropical zones. On top of this the usage of certain fruits against scurvy could help with making voyages more bearable, increasing European emigration.
• Sugar beet-based molass and honey find more popularity in Northern Europe compared to cane-based sugar, especially as African slavery would be far more foreign given the circumstances. This would mean we would have earlier selective breeding of sugar beets and we would have crystallized sugar production decades earlier than IOTL.
• The only real early "consumer" of slave labour would be the Portuguese, I wonder if to prevent African slavery in Brazil we couldn't just have sugar plantations in the Kongo itself instead of bothering to move them oversea.

 

[GeographyDude]

Okay, what if Europe went full pothead in the 1500's? Portuguese return from India with spices, including super strong bhang from the Himalayan slopes that becomes the perfect European ditchweed. Booze use slows as people concentrate on simmering seeds in butter, . . .

I’m of the opinion, that to the extent marijuana takes the place of alcohol, overall society is considerably better off. And I guess this would be testing that idea in a pretty big way!

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . She could have swallowed in by mistake or made a tea from it or soaked in a bath with tobacco in it.
All of those could result in a fatal nicotine ovedose.

I like the soaking in the bath possibility and absorbing too much through the skin.

Instead In addition, let’s say an older man who’s one of her most respected advisors takes responsibility when it looks like the blame will fall on two younger advisors.

He’s convicted of “unintentional murder, but murder none the less” (early version of manslaughter). And when he’s put to death, it’s viewed as a double tragedy.

And is pretty vividly remembered for at least 30 years or so.

———

Later edit: Yes, I mean the Queen dies, unfortunately. And so does the older, respected advisor on a semi-voluntary basis, since he is taking the place of two younger advisors. This also puts in people’s faces how unfair the whole justice system is, but people aren’t really sure how to improve it.

 

[Gloss]

I like the soaking in the bath possibility and absorbing too much through the skin.

Instead, let’s say an older man who’s one of her most respected advisors takes responsibility when it looks like the blame will fall on two younger advisors.

He’s convicted of “unintentional murder, but murder none the less” (early version of manslaughter). And when he’s put to death, it’s viewed as a double tragedy.

And is pretty vividly remembered for at least 30 years or so.

Your ulimtate objective is to reduce Caribbean slavery, on that note tobacco is not even close to sugar in its demand for slaves and its necessity for them, free European labor was far more able to grow tobacco than sugar so if you remove the necessity for the later the usage for slaves for the former wouldn't even be considered IMO.

 

[GeographyDude]

An array POD just after 1500 should work well, those could be some changes that could happen around this time which would significantly decrease the need for African slavery in the Caribbean:

• No De Las Casas, the usage of African slavery doesn't formally take over Amerindian slavery . . .

Bartolomé de las Casas, the Spanish Bishop who stood up for native persons of South America. Spain paused Empire for a big court case, even let him read his whole book. In the end, they punted. The economic interests were just too right there in front of them. Even though the silver caused a surge of Spanish inflation.

And, Bartolomé de las Casas had to contend with Aristotle. Something about whether the Indians were rational and thus worthy of equal treatment. Yes, people can be rational even if they don’t have a written language.

Quite a compromise.

There’d be fewer total people in slavery, but natives in South America would be wiped out on a bigger scale. In OTL, Indians in South America survived in considerable bigger percentages than did Indians in North America.

Well, sometimes AH fiction can include other tragedies.

Sometimes we can avoid OTL tragedies, but then you kind of pay the price with other tragedies. I’m often struck by how passive the good guys are. Well, Bartolomé was active, and he did really try. Then we might get to the point that humanitarianism is a set of learnable skills just like anything else. And the luck of the dice aspect. And the fact that the earlier you start, the more opportunities you have to remedy bad luck.

 

[GeographyDude]

Your ulimtate objective is to reduce Caribbean slavery, on that note tobacco is not even close to sugar in its demand for slaves and its necessity for them, free European labor was far more able to grow tobacco than sugar so if you remove the necessity for the later the usage for slaves for the former wouldn't even be considered IMO.

I fully embrace that we will need multiple PODs!

 

[Gloss]

I fully embrace that we will need multiple PODs!

I mean it's not multiple PODs, the point is that cotton and tobacco are together still irrelevant compared to sugar, because mortality constraints, concentrated workload needed, market share and other factors makes sugar the real problem.

Rather than focusing on having an incident with tobacco or some freaky event, I'd rather concentrate the PoDs around the origin and growth of the slave trade, alternatives to Caribbean sugar canes and availability of European labor.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . alternatives to Caribbean sugar canes and availability of European labor.

Okay, I hear what you’re saying— that sugar is huge, and that cotton and tobacco are pipsqueaks in comparison. Fair enough.

I think you earlier said that if sugar beets get started earlier as a major sector of agriculture, more time for selective breeding?

Then if beet sugar simply becomes entrenched, then even if cane sugar is later in some sense ‘superior,’ who cares, we already have a perfectly acceptable product for this part of the economy! (anyone remember Sony Betamax, or have heard the tale thereof?)

And maybe cane sugar just becomes this rare and exotic luxury product. It’s interesting, and weirdly it is . . . pure white? Must be kind of artificial and chemical. In some doses, okay, I guess.

And beet sugar is the mainstream product for decades and decades running into centuries!

 

[Jürgen]

I’m of the opinion, that to the extent marijuana takes the place of alcohol, overall society is considerably better off. And I guess this would be testing that idea in a pretty big way!

Seeing as alcohol drinkers ended up winning over the groups which banned alcohol and used other drugs, I think from a societal POV alcohol is the superior drug.

 

[Gwyain]

Okay, what if Europe went full pothead in the 1500's? Portuguese return from India with spices, including super strong bhang from the Himalayan slopes that becomes the perfect European ditchweed. Booze use slows as people concentrate on simmering seeds in butter, easier than an alcohol still. Carbs are at a munchie premium and don't require so much sugar as long as there's salt. Rum and sugar are less profitable. Hemp sails are cheaper due to extremely widespread cultivation, so world trade speeds up.

I don't understand this line of reasoning, its not as if cannabis users today are any less likely to consume alcohol too. Poly-drug use is a thing today and it was in the past too. Alcohol use is also in part due to poor access to drinking water and simply as a way to preserve calories long term (I've seen it claimed that up to 80% of the typical peasants calories came from beer). Nothing about cannabis changes either of those things. Further though, bhang itself is often heavily sweetened, so you're more likely to see more sugar use with cannabis than less.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

If you somehow get the Viking colonies to take off and establish viable trade routes to North America, perhaps they could expand to include trade in maple syrup (perhaps dried into maple sugar). Note that Newfoundland is not really a major producer; most of it comes from what is now central Canada, the Maritimes, the northeastern US, and the midwest, so you'd a trade network to to get to Vinland. That would probably also move the epidemics up, so presumably less of the Caribbean population would die when Europeans sail there.

 

[bpbruce]

I don't understand this line of reasoning, its not as if cannabis users today are any less likely to consume alcohol too. Poly-drug use is a thing today and it was in the past too. Alcohol use is also in part due to poor access to drinking water and simply as a way to preserve calories long term (I've seen it claimed that up to 80% of the typical peasants calories came from beer). Nothing about cannabis changes either of those things. Further though, bhang itself is often heavily sweetened, so you're more likely to see more sugar use with cannabis than less.

Sugarcane cultivation was extremely unpleasant, while ditchweed is fairly easy to grow. Crap jobs tend to go to slaves, and per OP I'm going for something that will obviate the need to have slaves when you want to get trashed.

 

[Gwyain]

Sugarcane cultivation was extremely unpleasant, while ditchweed is fairly easy to grow. Crap jobs tend to go to slaves, and per OP I'm going for something that will obviate the need to have slaves when you want to get trashed.

But how is it doing anything? As I said, weed isn't going to reduce drinking, so it won't reduce rum consumption. It won't reduce desire for sugar either, and since you posited bhang which is heavily sweetened, it may well increase demand for sugar. All its doing is getting people to use weed, not reducing slavery.