Or the "Hands" from Metropolis, the poor folk fed into the fiery maw of Moloch in the name of their superiors...
Calculating the population/demographics of a victorious Reich?
- Thread starter varyar
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Or the "Hands" from Metropolis, the poor folk fed into the fiery maw of Moloch in the name of their superiors...
Saphroneth
Banned
I think the correct term (and what they were going for) would be "Helots".
Some might be permitted to be Perioikoi.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
For some reason I doubted that the push would be to the same extent as on Germans, but if we follow your idea we get 219 million using French increase levels.
Already calculated:
North Korea:
Increased fertility rate by an entire 1% for 25 years. It wasn't until the building isolation of the 1980s (leading to loss of aid) and the 1990s famines that birth rates dropped significantly.
Deleted member 97083
The natalist policies of the Soviet Union and France aren't as comparable because, at least nominally, the Soviet Union had an ideological ideal for the equality of race and sex, and as far as that may have been from reality in the actual Soviet Union, it was still their ideological basis. Furthermore the French were a nominally liberal republic which if pressed, would not limit their own industrializing economy for natalism.
Neither would pursue fully fascist attitudes on women and family, because it would hurt their economic development. Both France and the Soviet Union needed women in factories and as skilled labor, especially the Soviet Union, the one that might have been more willing to use Orwellian policies in increasing fertility, so they never went to such an extreme at least in this field.
On the other hand, the German Reich's ideology was based on inequality at the outset. Furthermore, if something is ideological for them, they don't care if it will hurt their long term economic development, they'll do it anyway, to their own self-detriment.
Germany in WW2 also needed women in factories and as skilled workers, but were never able to fully commit to that unlike the Western Allies or Soviets. The Nazis filled labor shortages with slave labor from POWs and Slavic "Ostarbeiter". In a scenario where they had won the war, they would continue and increase this strategy. With millions of Ostarbeiter in the factories, the Nazis would probably forbid "racially" German women from working, or from receiving an education beyond basic literacy and the propaganda points of the regime. Increased education of women is a significant factor that decreases fertility rate, so the opposite, a "dumbed down" indoctrinated population would probably increase population growth.
There was also the policy of "Blood and Soil" combined with the intent to deindustrialize parts of Germany and Eastern Europe. The conscription of Germans to settle rural areas in the East would lead to more people living in low population density areas as opposed to high density areas. Rural populations have a higher fertility rate than urban populations. So this would probably also increase population growth.
Add forced conscription from France, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, Hungary, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Croatia, many of whom would not be allowed to leave, and that adds a few more millions over time.
Of course all of these factors could, and probably would, simmer toward rebellion and economic collapse.
Neither would pursue fully fascist attitudes on women and family, because it would hurt their economic development. Both France and the Soviet Union needed women in factories and as skilled labor, especially the Soviet Union, the one that might have been more willing to use Orwellian policies in increasing fertility, so they never went to such an extreme at least in this field.
On the other hand, the German Reich's ideology was based on inequality at the outset. Furthermore, if something is ideological for them, they don't care if it will hurt their long term economic development, they'll do it anyway, to their own self-detriment.
Germany in WW2 also needed women in factories and as skilled workers, but were never able to fully commit to that unlike the Western Allies or Soviets. The Nazis filled labor shortages with slave labor from POWs and Slavic "Ostarbeiter". In a scenario where they had won the war, they would continue and increase this strategy. With millions of Ostarbeiter in the factories, the Nazis would probably forbid "racially" German women from working, or from receiving an education beyond basic literacy and the propaganda points of the regime. Increased education of women is a significant factor that decreases fertility rate, so the opposite, a "dumbed down" indoctrinated population would probably increase population growth.
There was also the policy of "Blood and Soil" combined with the intent to deindustrialize parts of Germany and Eastern Europe. The conscription of Germans to settle rural areas in the East would lead to more people living in low population density areas as opposed to high density areas. Rural populations have a higher fertility rate than urban populations. So this would probably also increase population growth.
Add forced conscription from France, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, Hungary, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Croatia, many of whom would not be allowed to leave, and that adds a few more millions over time.
Of course all of these factors could, and probably would, simmer toward rebellion and economic collapse.
Deleted member 1487
Turns out that is a myth, the Germans used more female labor proportionally than the US or Britain. Only the Soviets were higher (and for child labor too) because of the gravity of their situation.
Deleted member 97083
But how many of those people were Ostarbeiter or other slave workers from the East?
Deleted member 1487
I'm only talking about German citizen female labor, they did also use Ostarbeiter on top of that, but were employing a greater proportion of their female population from 1938 on than the Wallies ever did in the war. In fact according to Mark Harrison the Germans employed more people in their industry than the Soviets did in theirs.
Deleted member 97083
I guess that would make sense, since Germany's situation was always more dire than the WAllies (except France and Benelux), the Germans mobilized earlier in preparation for invasions, and by the time the West was fully mobilized it was about 1943 or so, the year that Germany had fully moved into a total war economy.
After the war, though, if the Germans had won they would have probably demobilized.
Deleted member 1487
They reached full employment in 1938, so the only people left to employ were women looking for work. Once the war started and men got increasingly drafted women were all there was; when that pool was largely tapped out in 1942 they shifted to more and more slave labor. Prior they even were hiring from all over Europe via contract, even from France, Italy, Hungary, and Spain! Germany was at a war time economy in all but name by 1938, the 1943 'total war' speech was just a propaganda move to rally the public after Stalingrad, the reality was they had largely mobilized their resources by then and were making slow incremental growth that was being blunted by air attacks. There is a limit to how much demobilization they really could have done in victory, they still needed to occupy Europe after all. The point about population growth that no I've seen has mentioned yet is children born of German soldier-local woman pairings. German soldiers were dating around when on occupation duty or using brothels (or raping), so they had a lot of kids around Europe too.
I referred to the French PROPAGANDA model, not the French encouragement system. The French propaganda model and attempt to raise births throughout the 1920s and 1930s was a failure, showing that the effects of propaganda are limited. If we want to your model lacks in that I severely doubt that immigration -to- the Reich is going to be anything like the French experience, and its GDP figures are of a questionable nature, not to mention that 32,000 might fall into the rather dismal HDI zone which has resulted in such terrible demographic growth rates across Eastern and Southern Europe.
North Korea:
Increased fertility rate by an entire 1% for 25 years. It wasn't until the building isolation of the 1980s (leading to loss of aid) and the 1990s famines that birth rates dropped significantly.
Those did drop significantly though. Birth rates varied in the 3-4 range throughout the 1955-1970 period as you can see, then underwent a fall to slightly under 3, then continued to stabilize and then decline. China spent most of its time higher than it from that chart, and Korea's is roughly similar, with two peaks. There's also little indication of what actually transpired in North Korea after examining both google search, various google books, and my university's library access, asides from a brief paragraph on wikipedia with conflicting information. I really doubt that it can be applied easily to the Reich, and concerning the peculiar nature of North Korea I might question about its composition and import overall...
Also if the USSR and Romania aren't applicable to Germany, then why is North Korea going to be applicable? They would share a high military mobilization level and a totalitarian society, but North Korea also falls into a dramatically different income bracket and even if Juche is politically akin to fascism the North Korean economy and social structure are going to be dramatically different.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
The economy structure would be quite similar, at least when you compared to the industrialized 1970s DPRK. Despite all the industrial output, Germany had a massive agricultural "sector" that held down a significant of labor, and when you combine this with the inefficient economic policies of the Nazi regime, static class system, and emphasis on autarky..... Also, something important: the Reich is not our OTL Germany, is more akin to a DPRK that had "unlimited" access to resources
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
This one we'll have to leave up to varyar, since his stories have several mentions to quite a few people moving to the Reich.
Deleted member 97083
And by 1950 or so, with indoctrination as successful as Imperial Japan.
In addition, many Germans may seek to emigrate to the Americas or other places of the world with a presumably higher standard of living, so even with a higher birthrate growth will stall somewhat. Why move to a farm near Moscow when you can flee to a place that will actually improve your quality of life?
The question is, would Germany allow them to emigrate, and would the other countries let them in in the first place?
But it isn't. Even OTL Germany in 1939 had a far greater GDP per capita than the DPRK, with a much more developed society. The Balroch project from wikipedia would calculator their GDP in PPP terms as 9,200 dollars, compared to North Korea's 1,800 - 3,000 (in 1990 dollars) in the 1970s. The agricultural labor force varied from 57% to 34%. By the 1920s the German agricultural labor force was around 25%. This will continue to drop in Germany, even the German plans for the East envisioned more than just an agricultural feudalism. There are similarities to the North Korean model, but the German one is still based on an economy that is a mixed economy one, the capitalists nationalized rather than the nationalization of the capitalists, and isn't starting off as a former colony. Most of all, North Korea is formally communist, and heralds from a completely different ideological tradition than Nazi Germany. There are similarities, but there are so many differences between the two especially as they evolve that it makes any comparison a difficult one, especially given that I have seen next to no information about what actually constituted the North Korean natalist project, and since this is inherently an ideological project, it simply comparing their economies is next to useless for figuring out the natalist program that is utilized and henceforth its efforts. Natalist programs are never just about raising birth rates after all.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
DPRK follows the ultranationalist tradition of Imperial Japan with a dash of Christian messiahism and clothed in supposed Communism. At the core the only difference is the urge to enslave other ethnic groups.