You make some good points here but I think for Britain lacking the hindsight that we have, things must look awfully bleak for them.
August Wind
- Thread starter Jim Smitty
- Start date
Tyr Anazasi
Banned
As for the money: Even today building insurances work with the values of 1914. You can say one Goldmark of then is about 13 € today. So 50.000,- M are today about 650.000,- €! Plus a villa in a city or an estate on the land, well, she has no economic worries for her life.
As for the political situation in Germany, well, already in 1914 there were movements to alter the constitution of the Reich and especially Prussia. As this would come nonetheless and as the SPD has proved their loyality, in contrast to the forming KPD, there won't be much problems in the Reichstag. If Solf is potent enough to form a coalition, which he needs anyway to keep his post, he can even be elected by the Reichstag as well.
Britain has to be seen. If they give too many loans to France and Russia they might be in a bad situation, if the Germans win big, as most of the money will be lost, at least until the reparations to Germany are paid.
Austria has many problems and has PO Germany. Thus the Germans might make a deal with the other states and disband Austria-Hungary. That and the alliance with Bulgaria, Ottoman Empire, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy (?), Rumania, perhaps Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Hungary will give them a good position in Europe.
This WILL cause troubles with Britain.
As for the political situation in Germany, well, already in 1914 there were movements to alter the constitution of the Reich and especially Prussia. As this would come nonetheless and as the SPD has proved their loyality, in contrast to the forming KPD, there won't be much problems in the Reichstag. If Solf is potent enough to form a coalition, which he needs anyway to keep his post, he can even be elected by the Reichstag as well.
Britain has to be seen. If they give too many loans to France and Russia they might be in a bad situation, if the Germans win big, as most of the money will be lost, at least until the reparations to Germany are paid.
Austria has many problems and has PO Germany. Thus the Germans might make a deal with the other states and disband Austria-Hungary. That and the alliance with Bulgaria, Ottoman Empire, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy (?), Rumania, perhaps Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Hungary will give them a good position in Europe.
This WILL cause troubles with Britain.
And as seen in Ireland and the admitedly post OTL war strikes, not everything is rainbows and smiles in the British Empire. They too have to rethink their stance towards their subjects and most importantly for them the future role of India.
Count Valerian
Banned
You assume that the British Empire is perfectly stable and united to face an ascendant Germany, when Ireland is going up in flames and India is beginning to simmer with nationalism. So long as Solf and Willy stay reasonable and time it right, then Britain can do nothing but watch as Germany rises to power...it's already been decided that without cassus belli Law cannot just go to King George V and ask him to declare war.
Novemberprogram...reasonable!Willy and Solf will probably just use it as a guide, and adjust accordingly. Peace has to be concluded with Russia before France is defeated, that way any attempt by the British to mediate can be countered by Germany asking France to accept terms as well...which the French militarists will never do, allowing Germany to carry on: an independent Poland with one of Willy's son as King (though he'd have to take a Polish name and learn to speak and write Polish), independent Duchies in the Baltics with Dukes chosen from German nobles already living there, all with German-style constitutional monarchies. Finland will again have one of Willy's sons as King, though he will also have to learn to speak/write Finnish and take a Finnish name, and the Finns can choose between British and German-style constitutional monarchies. Let Ukraine become a republic...all of them receive economic 'kick-starters' from Germany, tying them to Germany and setting the stage in the long-term for Germany's recovery from the war, and setting up a German block in Europe/buffer against Russia - MITTELEUROPA.
Russia has a choice to surrender Sakhalin to Japan as well, together with their concession in Tianjin, while the Russian Concession in Guangzhouwan can be sold to either Japan or China...or they can pay indemnity to Germany...which will be large.
Stall Austria-Hungary and Romania, then knock out the French without invading Belgium. Easier said than done, but they almost succeeded in OTL, and that was with them running on fumes...demand indemnity and the equatorial colonies in Africa and the Pacific islands. Not much to break France, but enough to satisfy most in Britain and Germany that despite pro-Entente jingoism everyone will accept the new 'peace'.
Assassinate Franz Josef or stall until he dies a natural death, and then the empire will disintegrate...Germany will annex Austria, and back Romania and Hungary to divide between them the other Austro-Hungarian territories in Central Europe. Greece...the British will probably sign a treaty with them to check German influence in the Balkans...the Germans should let them, that way Germany has no need/obligation to back Bulgaria and Turkey in a war against Greece. Otherwise Germany can just support the 'division' of Serbia and Montenegro by Bulgaria and their other allies.
EDIT: why would there be socialist revolts in Germany and their satellites? The socialist revolt in Germany in OTL was sparked by the effects of a British blockade and the bleak situation of the war...victory would strengthen the monarchy's grip on power, though Solf and Willy will probably compromise with the republicans over reform: the Chancellor is responsible to both the Emperor and to Parliament, and the Emperor's 'reserve powers' are reduced in letter but not in spirit.
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Sure they have proved their loyalty to the Empire...but this count between zero and nothing after the shooting is ended; they are socialist and the junkers and the reactionary higher up will not give up any of their privileges/right/social stand without a fight.
While there will not be the OTL postwar revolution and widespread fight, Germany will face their version of the 'Biennio Rosso' and that while trying to absorb the new conquest and with Austria-hungary...well being Austria-Hungary.
Still they will be in a much better position than OTL economy wise, they will have not lost the trust of the various Dominion and an entire generation will not die (big artistic butterfly...and probably no Lord of the Rings), not subsided Italy or asked loan to the americans so in any case money lost here will be much less than OTL (British assets will not be touched as the other european by the USA) .
Probably even get some piece of real eastate for all their trouble (Belgian Congo...naturally keeped for their legitimate owner till they are capable of take it back)
Assuming that the Hapsburg will go gently into the night...thing that i really doubt.
Two things are more probable:
1) Post-war massive civil war with foreign intervention by Italy and Romania and contemporary massive rebellion on Serbia (and Poland). Followed by the partition of the Empire
2) Political and Etnich strife bring at the helm a Mussolini-like figure as he take power with a teutonic version of the March on Rome. This man use fascist (or communist if we like) ideology as a substitute of the Monarchy as a glue for the nation. In any case it will be a pleasant neighbour as OTL Benny.
Frankly i take the social, economic and psycological consequence for the Empire of a low level civil war in a little island and somekind of nationalism, than 5 years of the most brutal and devastanting war know to men till that monent, not counting the conflict that started immediately after and UK partecipated like:
- Irish war of independence...and the following civil war
- Turkish war of independence.
- The Third Anglo-Afghan war (the Turkish-German mission had some serious consequences towards the start of conflict)
Colonially (and i include Canada, Australia, Nz and South Africa) speaking, without the stress and need of the war and her consequences things will be more quiet and regarding India, well if there isn't no Hindu-German Conspiracy is a little victory over the stability of Empire for sometime more; if there is...well casus belli for London.
Honestly, if we must make a constest regarding stability a neutral British Empire vastly beat and outclass a German one that had just wage a very costly war (both in human and material term) and need to face the social, economical and political (internal and external) consequences.
Now this little German dream need to face that nasty thing called reality.
German and Poland relationships...well it will be very complicated and his very probable (basically a must) that they will soon rebels as the project of Mitteleuropa is to create a little Warsaw pact/Comecon analog to serve the need of Germany, and strange as many can think, not all the population agree with this.
Regarding the internal german situation i have already talked above and frankly the A-H situation can easily escalate in a series of civil wars that can destabilizate the Balkans for years.
They can sure, but this mean an high cost as the French are now on the defensive and more loss mean more instability post-war creating in this manner a very Phyrric victory
Or devolve in horrible infight and wars that need lot and lot of Germans troops to keep checked and that make Iraq and Afganistan look like some nice vacation spot.
Greece...the British will probably sign a treaty with them to check German influence in the Balkans...the Germans should let them, that way Germany has no need/obligation to back Bulgaria and Turkey in a war against Greece. Otherwise Germany can just support the 'division' of Serbia and Montenegro by Bulgaria and their other allies.
The resolution of the situation between socialist and old guard will happen, victory or not...and will not be pretty
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Peking, May 29 1915
For the Japanese soldiers in this battle they knew what the coming battle meant. Since the start of the war, the Japanese Army had bested the Beiyang Army time and time again. Jinzhou, Anshan, Mukden(Shenyang), Chaoyang, and Tangshan, had all been major victories for the Japanese Army. Each of these battles had bleed the Beiyang Army white with it being a shell of its former self. The Japanese on the other hand had generally only lost 1 soldier or sailor for every 5 or 6 soldiers lost by the Beiyang Army. Now the war had reached the capital of China and every Japanese soldier knew they had to win this battle.
However for the Chinese and for the Hongxian Emperor the war had been nothing short of a disaster. They had effetely lost control of Manchuria already even though large parts of it was still out of Japanese hands at the moment. Hainan was totally in Japanese hands at this point. Their navy was gone. Rebellions were breaking out in southern and western China as news of the defeats at the hands of Japanese spread. Like the Japanese the Chinese wanted this war to come to an end, but how it was going to end was a different story. It was also about who had the will power to stay in the war.
British loans had pumped money into the Japanese war machine. In fact if not for the British loans the Japanese would had already when to the Hongxian Emperor asking for peace talks as they were going broke following the victory at Tangshan and couldn’t keep the war going. However with the British loans they decided to press on to Peking now. For the Hongxian Emperor it was about trying to find a way to end the war to allow him to save face. He had asked the Americans for help to end the war like they had in 1905 between the Russians and Japanese with the hopes of a light peace. However the Americans had told the Chinese that they their sympathies, but they couldn’t. The US was busy in Mexico couldn’t afford to take their eyes off Mexico to save China. The British were Japanese allies and they were the only other nation with the needed clout to perform the duties needed to bring peace between the two waring states in Asia. Every other power was at war and had at best questionable history with China.
However with the Japanese Army at the gates of Peking, the Hongxian Emperor was left with no choice. He had to make peace with Japan on Japanese terms. He had to try and save his nation from a civil war which was growing more and more likely with each passing day. In all honestly that ship had already sailed. The Hongxian Emperor was never popular with the masses within China. The war with Japan had only made things worse. With no choice in the matter and his only hope to save China from the worse of the Japanese, the Hongxian Emperor sent a trusted officer forward to tell the Japanese he was asking for a cease fire and peace talks with the Japanese Empire. He couldn’t allow this war to go on any more. If he did he risked destroying what remained of his power base, and he couldn’t have that.
For the Japanese soldiers in this battle they knew what the coming battle meant. Since the start of the war, the Japanese Army had bested the Beiyang Army time and time again. Jinzhou, Anshan, Mukden(Shenyang), Chaoyang, and Tangshan, had all been major victories for the Japanese Army. Each of these battles had bleed the Beiyang Army white with it being a shell of its former self. The Japanese on the other hand had generally only lost 1 soldier or sailor for every 5 or 6 soldiers lost by the Beiyang Army. Now the war had reached the capital of China and every Japanese soldier knew they had to win this battle.
However for the Chinese and for the Hongxian Emperor the war had been nothing short of a disaster. They had effetely lost control of Manchuria already even though large parts of it was still out of Japanese hands at the moment. Hainan was totally in Japanese hands at this point. Their navy was gone. Rebellions were breaking out in southern and western China as news of the defeats at the hands of Japanese spread. Like the Japanese the Chinese wanted this war to come to an end, but how it was going to end was a different story. It was also about who had the will power to stay in the war.
British loans had pumped money into the Japanese war machine. In fact if not for the British loans the Japanese would had already when to the Hongxian Emperor asking for peace talks as they were going broke following the victory at Tangshan and couldn’t keep the war going. However with the British loans they decided to press on to Peking now. For the Hongxian Emperor it was about trying to find a way to end the war to allow him to save face. He had asked the Americans for help to end the war like they had in 1905 between the Russians and Japanese with the hopes of a light peace. However the Americans had told the Chinese that they their sympathies, but they couldn’t. The US was busy in Mexico couldn’t afford to take their eyes off Mexico to save China. The British were Japanese allies and they were the only other nation with the needed clout to perform the duties needed to bring peace between the two waring states in Asia. Every other power was at war and had at best questionable history with China.
However with the Japanese Army at the gates of Peking, the Hongxian Emperor was left with no choice. He had to make peace with Japan on Japanese terms. He had to try and save his nation from a civil war which was growing more and more likely with each passing day. In all honestly that ship had already sailed. The Hongxian Emperor was never popular with the masses within China. The war with Japan had only made things worse. With no choice in the matter and his only hope to save China from the worse of the Japanese, the Hongxian Emperor sent a trusted officer forward to tell the Japanese he was asking for a cease fire and peace talks with the Japanese Empire. He couldn’t allow this war to go on any more. If he did he risked destroying what remained of his power base, and he couldn’t have that.
Berlin June 3 1915
The once good mood of the Kaiser was gone as he listened to the reports about the Russian offensive against the Austro Hungarians and Romanians. Then there was the Belgian Front which wasn’t going go either. Serbia and the Balkans were a total mess now and getting worse if that was possible. The news he was hearing overrode his glee from the signing of the Treaty of Potsdam three days ago where the British had agreed to give up their economic war against the German Empire in return for agreeing to allow the British host a peace conference to end its war with France.
However even the Treaty of Potsdam wasn’t all that it seemed to be. The British in the Treaty of Potsdam had stated they would give up direct economic actions designed to harm the German Empire, just in more diplomatic language. However it said nothing of indirect economic actions design to harm the German Empire. Because of the Treaty of Potsdam had this gray area the British were going to take it. The British leadership still wanted to find a way into the war against the Central Powers and the Treaty of Potsdam had said nothing on that subject. However the Belgian Crisis had forced some face saving measures to be taken by the Law Government. And with the growing anger over raising food prices this killed two birds with one stone.
Generalfeldmarschall Paul von Hindenburg was pointing to a map. “The Russians are launching a massive offensive. From Vinnystia in the Ukraine all the way south to the Black Sea. So far no axis of attack has been found yet, and this is looking more like a general offensive with every passing hour.”
“How far have they advanced?” the Kaiser asked.
Von Hindenburg looked through some paper work, “At the deepest point 10 kilometers. However that report is 12 hours old sir.”
The Kaiser thought for a moment. “Is our offensive into the Baltic at risk?”
“Sir at the moment we don’t know.” Then von Hindenburg took a deep breath before going on. “Sir, the Russian plan is so simple its brilliant. The short artillery barrage followed by elite infantry attacking their lines was a stroke of genius. It didn’t allow either the Austro Hungarians or Romanians to bring up reserves to deal with it. The sudden attack caught them off guard and they are wheeling from it. I don’t see a defense from this kind of attack at the moment. Its unlikely anything that came before it.”
“So you haven’t noticed anything different between our forces and the Russians?”
“No sir. The Kaunas Fortress is still cut off with the bulk of the Russian 11th Corp trapped inside it. Vilnius is within sight of our troops. The landings to take Riga are currently on hold till the troop issues get figured out sir. Once the issues from Belgian are taking care of I believe we will be able to perform the landing operation as planned.”
“Speaking of Belgium, how are things going on there.”
“Fighting between us and the Frogs is currently around two places. The first is Liege. They got their first and control the forts thanks to their lackeys. However are artillery is slowly destroying them. However its going to take time. The other major point of fighting is Antwerp. Currently we are reinforcing our friends in the Antwerp government with the 111th Infantry Division. However they are still in route but we believe that the troops who are holding the forts in Antwerp will hold.”
The 111th Infantry Division was one of the new infantry divisions being formed in the German Army as they moved to triangle divisions and away from square divisions. The 111th Infantry had been originally assigned to be moved to Kamerun before it would launch a mission to retake Togoland. However they had still been in Germany when the Belgian Crisis hit the fan and they had been retasked to help hold Antwerp once the Kaiser gave the ok to enter Belgium.
“Currently the Italian Expeditionary Force is enroot to strength our forces in Belgium. Once the IEF reaches the front I highly doubt the French offensive will go anywhere. Unlike on the Eastern Front against the Russians the troop density is such even if they decided to copy the Russians they would still run into a wall of troops.”
What was left unspoken was Serbia. Austria Hungary was coming down hard on Serbia for their Great Rebellion. The same could be said of Bulgaria and Italy, but Austria Hungary was taking it too a different level. The best way to say it was it was not a good time to be a Serb. Whole villages were being removed from the map. Soldiers in uniforms caught by Austro Hungarian troops were being shot or bayoneted instead of being given their rights as prisoners of war. It was bad and shown no signs of getting any better. A few were even asking if there would be a Serbia left at the end of the war.
The once good mood of the Kaiser was gone as he listened to the reports about the Russian offensive against the Austro Hungarians and Romanians. Then there was the Belgian Front which wasn’t going go either. Serbia and the Balkans were a total mess now and getting worse if that was possible. The news he was hearing overrode his glee from the signing of the Treaty of Potsdam three days ago where the British had agreed to give up their economic war against the German Empire in return for agreeing to allow the British host a peace conference to end its war with France.
However even the Treaty of Potsdam wasn’t all that it seemed to be. The British in the Treaty of Potsdam had stated they would give up direct economic actions designed to harm the German Empire, just in more diplomatic language. However it said nothing of indirect economic actions design to harm the German Empire. Because of the Treaty of Potsdam had this gray area the British were going to take it. The British leadership still wanted to find a way into the war against the Central Powers and the Treaty of Potsdam had said nothing on that subject. However the Belgian Crisis had forced some face saving measures to be taken by the Law Government. And with the growing anger over raising food prices this killed two birds with one stone.
Generalfeldmarschall Paul von Hindenburg was pointing to a map. “The Russians are launching a massive offensive. From Vinnystia in the Ukraine all the way south to the Black Sea. So far no axis of attack has been found yet, and this is looking more like a general offensive with every passing hour.”
“How far have they advanced?” the Kaiser asked.
Von Hindenburg looked through some paper work, “At the deepest point 10 kilometers. However that report is 12 hours old sir.”
The Kaiser thought for a moment. “Is our offensive into the Baltic at risk?”
“Sir at the moment we don’t know.” Then von Hindenburg took a deep breath before going on. “Sir, the Russian plan is so simple its brilliant. The short artillery barrage followed by elite infantry attacking their lines was a stroke of genius. It didn’t allow either the Austro Hungarians or Romanians to bring up reserves to deal with it. The sudden attack caught them off guard and they are wheeling from it. I don’t see a defense from this kind of attack at the moment. Its unlikely anything that came before it.”
“So you haven’t noticed anything different between our forces and the Russians?”
“No sir. The Kaunas Fortress is still cut off with the bulk of the Russian 11th Corp trapped inside it. Vilnius is within sight of our troops. The landings to take Riga are currently on hold till the troop issues get figured out sir. Once the issues from Belgian are taking care of I believe we will be able to perform the landing operation as planned.”
“Speaking of Belgium, how are things going on there.”
“Fighting between us and the Frogs is currently around two places. The first is Liege. They got their first and control the forts thanks to their lackeys. However are artillery is slowly destroying them. However its going to take time. The other major point of fighting is Antwerp. Currently we are reinforcing our friends in the Antwerp government with the 111th Infantry Division. However they are still in route but we believe that the troops who are holding the forts in Antwerp will hold.”
The 111th Infantry Division was one of the new infantry divisions being formed in the German Army as they moved to triangle divisions and away from square divisions. The 111th Infantry had been originally assigned to be moved to Kamerun before it would launch a mission to retake Togoland. However they had still been in Germany when the Belgian Crisis hit the fan and they had been retasked to help hold Antwerp once the Kaiser gave the ok to enter Belgium.
“Currently the Italian Expeditionary Force is enroot to strength our forces in Belgium. Once the IEF reaches the front I highly doubt the French offensive will go anywhere. Unlike on the Eastern Front against the Russians the troop density is such even if they decided to copy the Russians they would still run into a wall of troops.”
What was left unspoken was Serbia. Austria Hungary was coming down hard on Serbia for their Great Rebellion. The same could be said of Bulgaria and Italy, but Austria Hungary was taking it too a different level. The best way to say it was it was not a good time to be a Serb. Whole villages were being removed from the map. Soldiers in uniforms caught by Austro Hungarian troops were being shot or bayoneted instead of being given their rights as prisoners of war. It was bad and shown no signs of getting any better. A few were even asking if there would be a Serbia left at the end of the war.
Count Valerian
Banned
Damn the Austro-Hungarians
Belgium and Poland-Ukraine are salvageable, but Solf and Willy are going t have to work quickly if they're to stop the Serbian Crisis from smearing Germany's name and worse, dragging Britain into the war.
Belgium and Poland-Ukraine are salvageable, but Solf and Willy are going t have to work quickly if they're to stop the Serbian Crisis from smearing Germany's name and worse, dragging Britain into the war.
To be honest, I have my doubts that a Brusilov style offensive in TTL would be that effective overall. My resoning is that the Italian front is not there. And that was Imo what weakend the Austrian efforts that year in Russia. Mainly the offensive of Conrad at around the same time.
Without that and the assorted other losses there, the Austrians should have some more. Yes part would go to Serbia. But the important things like artillery and supplies would be more plentyfull then OTL.
A thought to the economic warfare too, what is the British ability to further wage it? They have a good 3/4 of a year of massive spending and little to show for it. The point I try to make is that they are not in the war, have some problems of their own and the Exchequer will probably tighten the purse strings...
Without that and the assorted other losses there, the Austrians should have some more. Yes part would go to Serbia. But the important things like artillery and supplies would be more plentyfull then OTL.
A thought to the economic warfare too, what is the British ability to further wage it? They have a good 3/4 of a year of massive spending and little to show for it. The point I try to make is that they are not in the war, have some problems of their own and the Exchequer will probably tighten the purse strings...
I agree, but if we must compare ITTL with OTL, OTL the war with Italy was just beginning and there were not much troops in the zone so at least for now there is no great difference from OTL (thing will be very different in the long run).
The ITTL Serbian counterinsurgery campaign will probably take more or less the same amount of men than the OTL second invasion of Serbia, add to this the timing and the fact that the Russian are in more dire waters so they will go for the equivalent of an earlier Brusilov and without any general that hold is troops back.
Sure it will probably fail but it will shock the Austrian and force the German to send troops to aid them delaying their offensive.
I agree totally, but is more a long term thing than an immediate one
Well the British were the first superpower of the time in military and economic term and without being engaged in the war they will have plentier of money...not counting that much of the goods traded come from the Empire itself.
Basically London can found legal/commerical motivation to cease or greatly slowing any commerce with the CP (and this mean that alternative source must not only found but the price will be higher due to the situation and the necessity) and can use her diplomatic power to make other nation if not stop commercing with Germany and co. at least make it more difficult and costing.
The hoarding or at least the preferential acquisition of goods is the last measure
Shadow Master
Banned
I have to ask this, if Serbia is getting hit from three sides, does this not mean that AH has to do LESS of the fighting compared to OTL?
The serbians having seen the writing in the wall had decided to stop conventional fighting, retreat in the countryside/mountains/disperse through the population, biding their time and now have started a general uprising forcing the three occuping nations (Austria, Italy and Bulgaria) to divert troops and start a counterinsurgery effort.
Austria-Hungary due to controlling the bulk of Serbia (Bulgaria control Macedonia and part of Kosovo and Italy a little zone at the Albanian border) face the bulk of the revolt.
I am not certain, but did AH have the catastrophic losses of OTL in 1914? If not they would be stronger...
Re the financial situation, would the financial establishment be willing to "sell the future of the Empire" in an undeclared war against Germany with the TTL behaving Germans?
To be honest I doubt it. The British gov. may play games with discretionary funds, but the amount they would have to cough up to meaningfully outbuy the Germans is not there Imo.
Re the financial situation, would the financial establishment be willing to "sell the future of the Empire" in an undeclared war against Germany with the TTL behaving Germans?
To be honest I doubt it. The British gov. may play games with discretionary funds, but the amount they would have to cough up to meaningfully outbuy the Germans is not there Imo.
Depend on how well their russian front has done, otherwise the only other offensive was the humiliating first invasion of Serbia. Italy declare war at the end of May 1915 so at this moment the difference will not be so huge.
Frankly it will be costly but not that much; UK internally need to rise tariff towards the CP, making commercing with them more diffulct or raising an effective embargo and just that will create many problem (UK was the principal source of coal for Italy).
This move will cause the rise of the price of the other suppliers as now the CP have a lot less choices regarding from who buy things.
At this one can add the transport of the merchandise as i doubt that the UK will kindly permit at any of her ship to help the CP and the fact that diplomatically London can make clear that she really doesn't like nation that commerce a lot with Germany and co.
All this will rise price even without London actively buying things.
abc123
Banned
I'm not sure that the UK will sign this Treaty of Potsdam. Their economical measures against Germany are probably something that is not overt policy against Germany, so I doubt that the UK will admitt and sign that they are waging a economical war against Germany. I would expect more something like a gentlemen's agreement.
