Armada of 1779 Succeeds: Peace Treaty?

[Matteo]

They would get both,just strip Britain of everything.

No they would not because they (France and Spain) did not have the means to take effective control of everything.

Let’s kind of do the math.

Since The 13 colonies rebelled most of all (although of course not only) because of the proclamation line and the Quebec Act, there needs to be a compromise between the allies on North America.

This compromise could be that France gets back all today’s Canada, plus northern Maine and northern Vermont and the north part of today’s New-York State and the right bank of the Ohio river and all the territory east of a strip on the left bank of the Mississippi River, which would be a better than what they had before the 7 years war.

They may obtain Jamaica, which will be a tough loss for Britain.

They may obtain some kind of divide of India into 2 influence areas, basically Britain retaining northern India and France regaining southern India.

Ireland may be freed from British occcupation and turned into a close French ally/protectorate.

France will be able to obtain the end of Britain’s veto to France gaining control of the Austrian Netherlands, which may allow Austria to trade the ANL in exchange for French agreement and support to Austria’s taking control of Bavaria at the precise time when there was a Bavarian succession to settle.

There will be the end of the asiento, too.

 

[mrmandias]

People aren't ignoring the sugar islands. It goes without saying that if anyone gets them, it's going to be France/Spain. The only real argument is whether they can be wrested from Britain. There's an argument for India, too, and how realistic or how much of India France can take. Unless the invasion of Britain is a smashing success, France and Spain are NOT going to strip Britain bare. go for too much, and Britain will refuse peace and France/Spain will be mired down in a mucky mess. IMO, there'll be a more reasonable peace than reducing Britain to merely an island.

Canada and Florida are probably the easiest fruit to pluck. IMO, the only reason France wouldn't retake Canada is if they didn't want the hassle of ruling there, or if Canada wanted independence of its own. France will want to retake it out of prestige, or likewise will support independence for similar reasons. wresting the region from Britain just to give it to the US is a slap in the face for France and Canada. Likewise, Florida will be returned to Spain. Spain also claimed OTL, as I said above, much of the south. Spain's ability to retain control of the region is questionable, but at the peace table it likely gets assigned to them. In this ATL, the primary negotiations are Britain with France/Spain, with the US the secondary seat at the table, not OTL's USA backstabbing its benefactors and negotiating a peace first, then France/Spain scrambling to keep up. On paper, France and Spain will have a lot of territory in North America. The ability of either to retain control (Spain east of the mississippi and France in the old northwest) is questionable. The notion of USA uber alles, getting the continent this early in the game, is applying the 1800's OTL results too soon. the colonies will be granted freedom, but France/Spain will minimize their size. The new nation then sets about nibbling away at what France/Spain have claimed on the map.

Likely result of this is an earlier Special Relationship and stronger UK-US friendship as the new US feels hemmed in and betrayed by Spain and France who, coincidentally, are the two powers that the UK will now be out to get. I also predict a stronger Federalist party once the Constitution gets going and a clear U.S. consensus that having a real military is a must. This may also mean that the Society of Cincinnatus becomes a thing.

 

[DominusNovus]

Likely result of this is an earlier Special Relationship and stronger UK-US friendship as the new US feels hemmed in and betrayed by Spain and France who, coincidentally, are the two powers that the UK will now be out to get. I also predict a stronger Federalist party once the Constitution gets going and a clear U.S. consensus that having a real military is a must. This may also mean that the Society of Cincinnatus becomes a thing.

You know, thats an interesting angle. I still don’t buy that the French would screw over their new ally (the Spanish wouldn’t have any problem with it) for so little gain, but I do agree that the Brits and US would likely find a lot more in common, especially once they no longer have a land border.

 

[unprincipled peter]

You know, thats an interesting angle. I still don’t buy that the French would screw over their new ally (the Spanish wouldn’t have any problem with it) for so little gain, but I do agree that the Brits and US would likely find a lot more in common, especially once they no longer have a land border.

the US isn't getting screwed over. Nothing that has been proposed going to France or Spain, especially Canada was ever part of the colonies except on paper. the colonies had claimed west of the apalachians on paper. So did France, and then Spain. France taking the southern bank of the St Laurence, and moving to take the Ohio country is, admittedly, going to be a major sore spot.

Why did Spain want Florida back? prestige. It's going to be the same thing with France and Canada. And you keep forgetting that France/Spain aren't settling for just these territories. They're taking them in addition to other, more valuable spoils. but realistically, some of those other spoils, like Jamaica, aren't going to be the easiest territories to simply add to the empire.

Edit: there also exists the possibility France let's Britain keep Canada. There's no real reason for France to demand the territory just to turn it over to the US.

 

[mrmandias]

I still don’t buy that the French would screw over their new ally (the Spanish wouldn’t have any problem with it) .

The French elites were pretty sentimental about the American frontier republicans, so I tend to agree that they are going to try to help the Americans out in the peace as long as it doesn't cost them much.

 

[mrmandias]

Another side effect: this doesn't butterfly many of the causes that led to the French Revolution, but it is a much needed shot of legitimacy for the Ancien Regime.

 

[Philip]

Do French territorial and prestige gains do enough to delay or avert La Révolution?

 

[unprincipled peter]

Likely result of this is an earlier Special Relationship and stronger UK-US friendship as the new US feels hemmed in and betrayed by Spain and France who, coincidentally, are the two powers that the UK will now be out to get. I also predict a stronger Federalist party once the Constitution gets going and a clear U.S. consensus that having a real military is a must. This may also mean that the Society of Cincinnatus becomes a thing.

quite right. It would be interesting to see how the need to pay for a military, and simply the dynamics of having a military, change up the mindset/political realities of a young, fragile nation. It would be interesting to see the interaction of rebels and loyals. there's going to be a need to unify. Britain will likely look to ally with the new nation, so maybe the loyals won't be seen as such dastards, but if the enmity remains, and the loyals have no where to go, there could be trouble.

Britain will look to help the US pester France/Spain, but how much help depends on how much Britain has been curbstomped, what sort of leadership emerges (George's throne is very likely in peril, and at the very least a change in administration is happening), and what sort of turmoil the country is thrown into.

 

[funnyhat]

Another side effect: this doesn't butterfly many of the causes that led to the French Revolution, but it is a much needed shot of legitimacy for the Ancien Regime.

Not sure; France did win the war OTL after all. This would be a more decisive victory but I’m not sure if that would matter that much. An earlier end to the war might save the government some money though, and perhaps it would gain some profitable colonies (Canada was not particularly profitable) so maybe that makes a difference?

 

[DominusNovus]

Not sure; France did win the war OTL after all. This would be a more decisive victory but I’m not sure if that would matter that much. An earlier end to the war might save the government some money though, and perhaps it would gain some profitable colonies (Canada was not particularly profitable) so maybe that makes a difference?

Given that the revolution started ultimately due to financial problems, an infusion of capital will certainly help. On the other hand, they still have serious problems with the economy of France itself. This might give them enough time to sort things out, or it might encourage irresponsible policies.

As an aside, depending on how much legitimacy the crown loses, maybe Britain overthrows its monarchy and establishes a new commonwealth? That’d be a fun twist.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Not sure; France did win the war OTL after all. This would be a more decisive victory but I’m not sure if that would matter that much. An earlier end to the war might save the government some money though, and perhaps it would gain some profitable colonies (Canada was not particularly profitable) so maybe that makes a difference?

Did France get any sort of morale boost from the war OTL? or was it a case of 'we spent all this money, and what do we have to show for it?'. Serious question to which I don't know the answer.
If it was the latter, this ATL would quite likely be a moment of 'we kicked derriere, didn't spend too much, and made some gains'. don't know how long that high would last, but never underestimate the power of positive thinking. The Revolution was a perfect storm of events which was by no means inevitable. Something was likely going to happen, but it need not be the horrible catastrophe of OTL. shift a little bit here or there and things can change dramatically.

 

[funnyhat]

Did France get any sort of morale boost from the war OTL? or was it a case of 'we spent all this money, and what do we have to show for it?'. Serious question to which I don't know the answer.

I think it did boost confidence in the régime at first. But it was a double-edged sword: the new USA was very popular with Enlightenment thinkers and inevitably this led to questions about French society could also be reformed...

 

[raharris1973]

Why would they ignore them? Its not like either power did much with the lands in question when they had them. Snatch up the sugar plantations and the eastern colonies.

Anyway, it seems like everyone is hung up on the vast tracts of empty forest in North America, rather than the profitable colonies in the Caribbean.

If Spain and France claim *all* the sugar islands as prizes of war, will Britain or England become a quick convert to the cause of abolishing the slave trade and slavery, since it is not benefitting any longer from owning plantation soil or the Asiento slave trade monopoly?

Will the French monarchy be stabilized by a scaled-up plantation complex through the early 19th century? Beyond?

Speaking of absorbing Caribbean islands – might France or Spain have hesitancy to annex the islands because of lobbying by plantation owners in Haiti, Guadalupe, Cuba or Puerto Rico, fearful of new competition in their market? This is often alleged to be the reason why Britain gave back Guadalupe.

 

[Avrorrange]

If Spain and France claim *all* the sugar islands as prizes of war, will Britain or England become a quick convert to the cause of abolishing the slave trade and slavery, since it is not benefitting any longer from owning plantation soil or the Asiento slave trade monopoly?

Will the French monarchy be stabilized by a scaled-up plantation complex through the early 19th century? Beyond?

Speaking of absorbing Caribbean islands – might France or Spain have hesitancy to annex the islands because of lobbying by plantation owners in Haiti, Guadalupe, Cuba or Puerto Rico, fearful of new competition in their market? This is often alleged to be the reason why Britain gave back Guadalupe.

I think a large part of the French debt will be cleared due to British indemnity.On top of territorial concessions,the British will definitely be made to pay for the war.

 

[Corjomc]

Which English colony would be the best one for the Crown to flee to?

 

[unprincipled peter]

Which English colony would be the best one for the Crown to flee to?

not a colony, but Hanover makes sense to me

 

[Viriato]

When Spain entered the war its minimum demands were Gibraltar, Minorca, and Florida. Early on, they thought that taking Jamaica was a possibility as well, while the Bahamas were negotiable. France at a minimum wanted Dominica, Senegal, its forts in India, and most importantly fisheries in Newfoundland's Grand Banks. Throughout the war, the French occupied Tobago, Grenada, St Vincent, Nevis, St Christopher, and Montserrat. The British on the other hand occupied St Lucia in 1779, but I imagine if the invasion of Great Britain is successful, that France might demand more islands.

 

[DominusNovus]

When Spain entered the war its minimum demands were Gibraltar, Minorca, and Florida. Early on, they thought that taking Jamaica was a possibility as well, while the Bahamas were negotiable. France at a minimum wanted Dominica, Senegal, its forts in India, and most importantly fisheries in Newfoundland's Grand Banks. Throughout the war, the French occupied Tobago, Grenada, St Vincent, Nevis, St Christopher, and Montserrat. The British on the other hand occupied St Lucia in 1779, but I imagine if the invasion of Great Britain is successful, that France might demand more islands.

I hadn’t considered the fisheries apart from the actual land. Good point.

 

[minifidel]

There is a very fatalist approach to the French Revolution on AH.com, and it seems that there's likewise a very fatalist approach to the "Special Relationship" between the US and the UK as well in this thread; in regard to the former, I think that circumstances would be substantially different from OTL in terms of France's financial state (a triumphant 2-year war -- which will certainly include monetary reparations in addition or in place of territorial concessions from the UK -- will leave French coffers much better off than after a grueling 6-year fight on multiple continents and seas) and France's ideological situation (some of the early leaders of the French Revolution, especially its most moderate and liberal members of the 1st Estate had played some role in the ARW, like Lafayette) means that the very specific circumstances that led to the explosion of violence in 1789 do not happen ITTL.

Especially in a scenario where France retakes Canada, after losing it essentially because of its scarce population, Quebec becomes a potential outlet for "rowdy" elements of French society in a similar way that Australia served as a dumping ground for the UK, so there's also that alternative to growing revolutionary fervor in France proper.

As for the "Special Relationship", there's no reason to believe that US-UK relations would be worse than OTL, but there's little reason to think they'll be any better either, and US-French relations soured after the French Revolution and the Quasi-War.

I have two follow-up ideas for this scenario: the first is the possibility of the UK and Hanover splitting, inspired by the above post that raised the question of where the British royal family would flee to. What would Parliament do if the King flees, especially after being forced to sign peace with France with a hostile army encamped outside London? I doubt there would be much resistance to severing ties with the fleeing dynasty, but it raises the question of "who becomes King instead?"; another interesting possibility is that British liberals might take a cue from the (successful) North American revolutionaries, and decide that maybe the United Kingdom doesn't need to be a Kingdom after all.

Another knock-on question, would the newly-independent colonies necessarily lean towards a republican constitution? Or would they find the idea of a Bourbon "monarch" tempting, given what the two Bourbon kingdoms of Europe just accomplished in succor of their independence from the UK? Subservience to Paris or Madrid might be out of the question, but that's probably not something any of the parties would even want to begin with.

 

[DominusNovus]

Thise are some interesting ideas, though the notion of the Americans turning monarchist stretches my credulity.