Another variant of Portugal doing better – POD in the early XX century

[paulo]

This Portugal is going to be considerably different than the one of OTL.
This time, the considerable resources of portuguese africa are found much sooner - and explored. One of my big peeves is that the resources always existed, some are found later, but much is not explored correctly. Salazar is very adverse at any investment without getting the funds before and that slow things considerably. The education is also a problem.
Doing a big effort to fix that early generate a lot of changes.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Is it going to have a larger population than the OTL Portugal?

If the country is richer then there is likely to be less emigration. More wealth should mean better public health so lower infant mortality and people live longer and healthier lives in general.

 

[paulo]

Less emigration because of economic reasons, sure (more money AND more jobs). A bit less for political ones also - the regime is going to be softer / smarter after all. And they are going to try to get some of the 'refuges' that go to South America after ww2. Wealth is going to be better - at first in europen territories, but later in the african ones also.

 

[paulo]

About the emigration - after looking to the data i found in the net, lets say that by early 60's Portugal have about more 2 million people than OTL - that only considering the migration case, not the reduced child deaths and more born, can't find much data about that.

 

[General Ripper]

What about emigration from Portugal to Angola/Mozambique? Less than OTL, same or more?

 

[paulo]

More - more jobs in both territories, but really don't count because Angola and Mozambique are portuguese territory.

 

[fluttersky]

It sounds like this TL is heading in the direction of Angola and Mozambique remaining Portuguese indefinitely, rather than going for independence.

If so, (Southern) Rhodesia might remain under white minority rule for much longer, due to having a probably-friendlier neighbor in Portugal.

 

[paulo]

Yep, Portugal retained the Atlantic Isles, Guinee, Angola and Mozambique - given then the type of rights that France give to Guiana.

From the beginning of the Estado Novo regime, the portuguese regime have a profound distrust of USA. That don't changed much with the new regime (post ww2). They see the americans interested in finish all european empires and a nation with too much power and a tendency to interfere in other countries.
After the end of the Salazar regime, the new system - while maintaining power - do that controlling the media, military, police and the two new big parties - maintain that distrust.
Like OTL, they are part of NATO but they alliance with USA is a difficult one.
If they can negotiate / buy from another nation - preference for europe - they do so.
After the Suez Crisis - they perceived the british reaction to be a capitulation to american power and interests and that forced the change in preferred nation to France. and Israel. After the initial problem with South Africa both countries get in an unofficial alliance.

That is the line of thinking / action of the portuguese regime ITTL.

 

[General Ripper]

The thing is, sooner or later Portugal Will have to give federal status to Angola and Mozambique, the population disparity Will be too large to maintain overseas provinces status.

Also, why not dump Guinea? They are worthless, just source of problema.

 

[paulo]

Guinea is not dumped only because Portugal don't want to dump any colony in Africa. Goa Damao and Diu are dump / returned to India because they don't have a real value and the official excuse is because India turned independent.
Timor also have a low value and is too far away. Macau return to China is already negotiated.
From the economic point, Guinea has no interest, but they don't want to release any territory in Africa to not give any 'ideas' / excuses for problems in Angola (the real prize) and Mozambique. Is a political decision, not economic.

Yes, Soon Angola and Mozambique - but mostly Angola - have to get full federal level, no way to escape that.
Small tricks to slow things - already described - are for example maintaining all advanced industries and universities in the european territory for as long as possible, even if that is costly.

 

[General Ripper]

Guinea is not dumped only because Portugal don't want to dump any colony in Africa. Goa Damao and Diu are dump / returned to India because they don't have a real value and the official excuse is because India turned independent.
Timor also have a low value and is too far away. Macau return to China is already negotiated.
From the economic point, Guinea has no interest, but they don't want to release any territory in Africa to not give any 'ideas' / excuses for problems in Angola (the real prize) and Mozambique.

The explanation could be that there's no white settlement in Guinea.

The big issue is this: does Portugal want to have thousands of soldiers as garrison in Guinea? And garrisonning what- jungle? And having a war that can't be won?
While that same soldiers are needed in Angola and Mozambique?

That's the reason why a Federation of Portgal, Angola and Mozambique is a good thing. It offers you an honourable way out. Make Guinea as one member-state and later let her to become a confederation or have a independence referendum. Federation ( and later confederation/something similar to EU ) is a must, because I don't think that population of Portugal will accept having 2/3+ of their Parliament from Africa ( and black colour ) and Africans will not accept anything less. So, a Federation where Portugal can still have a main role is a must with clear promise of future devolution into Union/Confederation... By that, I think that Federation should be established by late 70s at the latest while Union/Confederation not more than 20 years after that...

And that's still hugely positive development for Portugal.

Also, it would be a smart thing to keep Cabinda as separate overseas province of Portugal, not giving her to Angola.

 

[paulo]

Well, OTL a much poor nation tried until 74. And these kind of decisions are not much rational, and very difficult to enforce - without force of arms - from outside.
They need to come more or less from inside, naturally, or all hell broke lose.
Also, the colonial war only started in 61 OTL.

 

[General Ripper]

Well, Portugal can definitly try. But one thing is essential- Portugal will have to decide if it is:

a) a European country with 2-3 BIIIG African provinces

b) African country with big European province

c) a part of federation ( later Union ) with Angola and Mozambique.

If they choose A- they will get as in OTL, 15-20 years of war and defeat at the end

If they choose B- they will get the revolution in Portugal

So, the only viable choice remains C.

In short, Portugal must realise this and control the process, it has no time to wait for slow development, because the rest of the world will not stop and wait for Portugal to catch up. USA, various European leftists ( including the Portuguese ), other African countries, Soviet Union, UN etc. will not wait for Portugal to figure aout what to do. The "Wind of change" is blowing in Africa and will not wait for Portugal to make up it's mind.

 

[paulo]

I know that C is the only option with a future.
But take time for a white dominated, european nation (the rest are colonies after all) to arrive to that conclusion.
They don't arrive a that in the 40's and i don't believe they do that in the 50's.
With a bit of luck, in early 60's or mid 60's.

Lets say, mid 60's when the tension start to go up, with the option be going for say war. Cool heads with some vision of the future prevail (with luck), and they decide going that path in mid 60's. Maybe, by that time giving the option of independence to Guinea ? That join the ex-french Guinea (?).

 

[General Ripper]

But, for comparison of TTL events and OTL events let's look at this:

"In 1960, at the initiation of Salazar's more outward-looking economic policy due to the influence of a new generation of technocrats with background in economics and technical-industrial know-how, Portugal's per capita GDP was only 38 percent of the European Community (EC-12) average; by the end of the Salazar period, in 1968, it had risen to 48 percent, and by 1973, under the leadership of Marcelo Caetano, Portugal's per capita GDP had reached 56.4 percent of the EC-12 average."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Portugal#A_small_economic_miracle_.281961-1974.29

Now, Portugal didn't invest seriously in it's African colonies before 50s, and even more 60s. ITTL, Portugal started in 30s to invest in Africa. So, in OTL, in 15 years, Portugal managed to increase it's GDP pc ( in comparison with EC-12 ) for 18% percentage points. Here, with investments started way earlier, I think that we can safely conclude zhat Portugal will achieve at least 70-75% of EU-12 average by 1975. And if Portugal continues with close relations with Angola-Mozambique ( as federation later Union ) and avoids major counterinsurgency war, I think that by 1990s over 80% of EU-12 average is possible...

 

[General Ripper]

I know that C is the only option with a future.
But take time for a white dominated, european nation (the rest are colonies after all) to arrive to that conclusion.
They don't arrive a that in the 40's and i don't believe they do that in the 50's.
With a bit of luck, in early 60's or mid 60's.

Lets say, mid 60's when the tension start to go up, with the option be going for say war. Cool heads with some vision of the future prevail (with luck), and they decide going that path in mid 60's. Maybe, by that time giving the option of independence to Guinea ? That join the ex-french Guinea (?).

Something along these lines, yes. Option of independence for Guinea can be made like: a) federal status in late 60s with option for independence referendum in say 10 years or Union with Portugal as other option. But I think that independence will win.

Portugal can say that Angola and Mozambique can't get that option ( independence ) because of large number of white settlers there. But they can get Union with Portugal/confederation, if the rights for white community are recognised ( a Trojan horse to maintain influence there trough white settlers ).

I don't think that union of Portuguese Guinea with french Guinea is realistic. Different languages and also, why would a dictator share it's rule and wealth of country with someone else?

 

[paulo]

But, for comparison of TTL events and OTL events let's look at this:

"In 1960, at the initiation of Salazar's more outward-looking economic policy due to the influence of a new generation of technocrats with background in economics and technical-industrial know-how, Portugal's per capita GDP was only 38 percent of the European Community (EC-12) average; by the end of the Salazar period, in 1968, it had risen to 48 percent, and by 1973, under the leadership of Marcelo Caetano, Portugal's per capita GDP had reached 56.4 percent of the EC-12 average."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Portugal#A_small_economic_miracle_.281961-1974.29

Now, Portugal didn't invest seriously in it's African colonies before 50s, and even more 60s. ITTL, Portugal started in 30s to invest in Africa. So, in OTL, in 15 years, Portugal managed to increase it's GDP pc ( in comparison with EC-12 ) for 18% percentage points. Here, with investments started way earlier, I think that we can safely conclude zhat Portugal will achieve at least 70-75% of EU-12 average by 1975. And if Portugal continues with close relations with Angola-Mozambique ( as federation later Union ) and avoids major counterinsurgency war, I think that by 1990s over 80% of EU-12 average is possible...

I aim for a bit more - remember, many resources that are found much later - some even 2000+ are found ITTL in the great geologic survey in the 30's - another thing that is not done seriously until much later.
Also Salazar is very adverse to borrow - this is also changed, with reason. After all, Salazar have is power reduced in the 30's but is only out in the late 40's.

 

[General Ripper]

I aim for a bit more - remember, many resources that are found much later - some even 2000+ are found ITTL in the great geologic survey in the 30's - another thing that is not done seriously until much later.
Also Salazar is very adverse to borrow - this is also changed, with reason. After all, Salazar have is power reduced in the 30's but is only out in the late 40's.

Well great, so maybe even more, as for 90+%. That's great. Will Portugal join the EU?

 

[paulo]

Hope not - Or at least stay out of the Euro. Good commercial relations (and political), but because of his great interests in Africa - date for said union ? - not much interested / possible in EU.
Aiming for 'special preferred partner' ?

 

[General Ripper]

Hope not - Or at least stay out of the Euro. Good commercial relations (and political), but because of his great interests in Africa - date for said union ? - not much interested / possible in EU.
Aiming for 'special preferred partner' ?

Maybe in 1995? With Austria, Sweden and Finland?