I'm not sure just how many other options Ford realistically had in 1975 with a totally Democratic Senate. Seems like he was pretty limited to John Paul Stevens though he did consider Robert Bork (almost certainly a no so soon after the Saturday Night Massacre) and Dallin Oaks (presumably no due to conservatism). So that seat was probably as close to set as you could get.
So things really get interesting in the Reagan years. Reagan promised the first female Supreme Court Justice but that didn't need to be for his first slot. Hence Orrin Hatch was lobbying to get either Dallin Oaks (who was also one of the finalists alongside Antonin Scalia for the Solicitor General spot that ultimately went to the legendary Rex Lee) and Judge J. Clifford Wallace, both members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Wallace was also a personal friend of Reagan himself. However, Reagan did ultimately want his first pick to be female. He was down between a State Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and the Sixth Circuit Judge Cornelia Kennedy. Ultimately it was Goldwater's lobbying that pushed it to Sandra Day. An earlier Judge Kennedy is probably much more conservative.
Jump to the Scalia seat. It's very possible Reagan appoints Bork to that one and Scalia to a later seat. But Scalia was definitely better at the game and more savvy so I think him getting the seat was more likely than not.
Now the seat that ultimately went to Kennedy is the interesting one. Reagan was seriously considering nominating J. Clifford Wallace after Bork went down. However, the Democratic Senate and the anti-conservative sentiment of the Senate made it so he tried first with Douglas Ginsburg and then Anthony Kennedy. It seems perhaps a better Senate performance in 1986 and maybe we still lose Bork (I think he lost pretty decisively) but can pull off a Clifford Wallace appointment.
HW made two appointments and he was hoping for solid conservatives for both. He failed miserably, being led astray by John Sununu to appoint a very not conservative David Souter to the Court because he was from New Hampshire. The other choice that Reagan seriously was Edith Jones, a Fifth Circuit Judge based in Houston. Strong conservative, the Court definitely would have shifted right from this unlike the wash that Souter was.
Finally, there's Michael Luttig, a power player in judicial politics, with his hands in the Supreme Court constantly with all his contacts. A feeder judge and serious player, he was seen as a shoe-in for the Supreme Court by any Republican administration in the 2000s though his ultimate goal was the Chief Justice spot. Ultimately, his heart was broken when Bush instead appointed Roberts and Alito after a bit of a spat broke out. Luttig knew his time was over and immediately resigned to make millions as in-house counsel for Boeing.
So yeah, there's definitely a world where we have a Justice Kennedy and a Justice Ginsburg but they're hardcore conservatives!
So things really get interesting in the Reagan years. Reagan promised the first female Supreme Court Justice but that didn't need to be for his first slot. Hence Orrin Hatch was lobbying to get either Dallin Oaks (who was also one of the finalists alongside Antonin Scalia for the Solicitor General spot that ultimately went to the legendary Rex Lee) and Judge J. Clifford Wallace, both members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Wallace was also a personal friend of Reagan himself. However, Reagan did ultimately want his first pick to be female. He was down between a State Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and the Sixth Circuit Judge Cornelia Kennedy. Ultimately it was Goldwater's lobbying that pushed it to Sandra Day. An earlier Judge Kennedy is probably much more conservative.
Jump to the Scalia seat. It's very possible Reagan appoints Bork to that one and Scalia to a later seat. But Scalia was definitely better at the game and more savvy so I think him getting the seat was more likely than not.
Now the seat that ultimately went to Kennedy is the interesting one. Reagan was seriously considering nominating J. Clifford Wallace after Bork went down. However, the Democratic Senate and the anti-conservative sentiment of the Senate made it so he tried first with Douglas Ginsburg and then Anthony Kennedy. It seems perhaps a better Senate performance in 1986 and maybe we still lose Bork (I think he lost pretty decisively) but can pull off a Clifford Wallace appointment.
HW made two appointments and he was hoping for solid conservatives for both. He failed miserably, being led astray by John Sununu to appoint a very not conservative David Souter to the Court because he was from New Hampshire. The other choice that Reagan seriously was Edith Jones, a Fifth Circuit Judge based in Houston. Strong conservative, the Court definitely would have shifted right from this unlike the wash that Souter was.
Finally, there's Michael Luttig, a power player in judicial politics, with his hands in the Supreme Court constantly with all his contacts. A feeder judge and serious player, he was seen as a shoe-in for the Supreme Court by any Republican administration in the 2000s though his ultimate goal was the Chief Justice spot. Ultimately, his heart was broken when Bush instead appointed Roberts and Alito after a bit of a spat broke out. Luttig knew his time was over and immediately resigned to make millions as in-house counsel for Boeing.
So yeah, there's definitely a world where we have a Justice Kennedy and a Justice Ginsburg but they're hardcore conservatives!
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