With a POD in 2000, would Barack Obama even enter politics? It's possible, but not at all likely that he would win in 2004, since he was a rather "dark horse" candidate, wasn't he?
Alternate Electoral Maps
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Barack Obama was first elected to the Illinois State Senate in 1996. And, no, he wasn't a dark horse candidate in 2004. He was the frontrunner even before Jack Rryan had to drop out.
After being given some direction by Archangel Mike, I took one of the Blank Wikipedia election Maps and created one for the 1916 election in my Lodge Bill TL (this particular chapter is here). So I made this:
Chapter 9: Weeks Opposition
John Weeks/Andrew J. Montague(Republican), 11,593,713 popular votes, 335 Electoral Votes
Tom Johnson/Charles W. Bryan (Populist), 9,412,124 popular votes, 149 Electoral Votes
George Lunn/Max S. Hayes (Socialist) 2,824,691 popular vote, 47 Electoral Votes
But then after I shrank it I realized, "crap, this looks horrible compressed", so I had to make another one but much tinier (again seen in the wikibox in the link above) to fit it into the Wikibox. Do you guys think it look similar the Wikipedia Electoral Maps? That's what I was going for, it isn't the same but I think it's close enough and works fine.
Chapter 9: Weeks Opposition
John Weeks/Andrew J. Montague(Republican), 11,593,713 popular votes, 335 Electoral Votes
Tom Johnson/Charles W. Bryan (Populist), 9,412,124 popular votes, 149 Electoral Votes
George Lunn/Max S. Hayes (Socialist) 2,824,691 popular vote, 47 Electoral Votes
But then after I shrank it I realized, "crap, this looks horrible compressed", so I had to make another one but much tinier (again seen in the wikibox in the link above) to fit it into the Wikibox. Do you guys think it look similar the Wikipedia Electoral Maps? That's what I was going for, it isn't the same but I think it's close enough and works fine.
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The West Wing: Electoral Maps
For those that haven't seen the series, 'The West Wing' is a serial political drama that takes place during the fictional Democratic administration of Josiah Bartlet. Though we see flashbacks of the Bartlet campaign on the show, we never see a map of election day. Below is my attempt to create one from the information given.
1998 Presidential Election [1]
Josiah Bartlet (NH) /John Hoynes (TX) 303 EV [2]
Republican Nominee/Running Mate 235 EV
Independent Nominee/ Running Mate 0 EV [3]
[1] Presidential elections are off by two years when compared to OTL, this is due to an unexplained point of divergence presumably during the Nixon administration.
[2] Josiah Bartlet beat his opponent with only 48% of the vote (translating to 48 million popular votes), but 303 electoral votes. Surprisingly The Bartlet/Hoynes ticket lost usually solid democratic strongholds of Michigan and more surprisingly Maine as this was Bartlet's neighboring state. This suggests, although it was never revealed on the show, that either the Republican presidential or vice-presidential candidate was from Maine.
[3] It is mentioned that Bartlet received a plurality of the overall vote, meaning a third party candidate must have drawn a sizable share of the popular vote, but failed to win any electoral votes. A third party spoiler effect would also explain the loss of democratic strongholds to the Republicans.
[2] Josiah Bartlet beat his opponent with only 48% of the vote (translating to 48 million popular votes), but 303 electoral votes. Surprisingly The Bartlet/Hoynes ticket lost usually solid democratic strongholds of Michigan and more surprisingly Maine as this was Bartlet's neighboring state. This suggests, although it was never revealed on the show, that either the Republican presidential or vice-presidential candidate was from Maine.
[3] It is mentioned that Bartlet received a plurality of the overall vote, meaning a third party candidate must have drawn a sizable share of the popular vote, but failed to win any electoral votes. A third party spoiler effect would also explain the loss of democratic strongholds to the Republicans.
Spoilers Ahead
2002 Presidential Election [4]
Josiah Bartlet (NH) /John Hoynes (TX) 419 EV
Robert Ritchie (FL)/Jeff Heston (GA) 144 EV [5]
2002 Presidential Election [4]
Josiah Bartlet (NH) /John Hoynes (TX) 419 EV
Robert Ritchie (FL)/Jeff Heston (GA) 144 EV [5]
[4] On November 5, 2002, Robert Ritchie lost the election to President Bartlet by over 10 million votes in a landslide worthy of LBJ. Ritchie was based on then Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush.
[5] Florida and Georgia are the only states that Bartlet lost in this election that he won previously. This suggests, although it was never revealed on the show, that Jeff Heston was from Georgia.
[5] Florida and Georgia are the only states that Bartlet lost in this election that he won previously. This suggests, although it was never revealed on the show, that Jeff Heston was from Georgia.
2006 Presidential Election [6]
Matthew Santos (TX) /Leo McGarry (IL) 272 EV [7]
Arnold Vinick (CA)/Ray Sullivan (WV) 266 EV [8]
[6] Matt Santos was elected with 272 electoral votes. However, due to winning California and only narrowly losing in Texas, Vinick won the popular vote by over 1 million votes.
[7] Although elected as first Latino President on the show, Santos was based on then Illinois state senator, later U.S. Senator and now President Barack Obama.
[8] Arnold "Arnie" Vinick, a social moderate and fiscal conservative Senator from California, was loosely based on Arizona senators John McCain and Barry Goldwater.
[7] Although elected as first Latino President on the show, Santos was based on then Illinois state senator, later U.S. Senator and now President Barack Obama.
[8] Arnold "Arnie" Vinick, a social moderate and fiscal conservative Senator from California, was loosely based on Arizona senators John McCain and Barry Goldwater.
Epilogue
The series ends after the election Mathew Santos. Vinick is tapped by President-Elect Santos for the position of Secretary of State, and the viewer is left to speculate about his presidency and reelection. Below is my take on a possible reelection campaign.
2010 Presidential Election
Matthew Santos (TX) /Eric Baker (PA) 269 EV [9]
Ray Sullivan (WV)/Robert Royce 269 (PA) EV [10]
[9] Leo McGarry, Democratic Vice Presidential nominee for the 2006 election, died of a heart attack on election day. Actor John Spencer passed away during this time and his death was incorporated into his character. On the show, former Pennsylvania Governor Eric Baker succeeds him as Vice-President.
[10] A tied election is befitting a political drama I'd say, Santos is re-elected by a Democratic controlled house, but Robert Royce becomes VP thanks to a Republican controlled Senate.
[10] A tied election is befitting a political drama I'd say, Santos is re-elected by a Democratic controlled house, but Robert Royce becomes VP thanks to a Republican controlled Senate.
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Bartlet served two four year terms, 1998-2002 then 2002-2006. Santos is elected in 2006 and would be up for re-election in 2010.
I thought that for the 1998 Election a third party presence was hinted at since Bartlet only won 48%.
Good call I've fixed that, I also added the other elections to make it easier to follow.
Well since Bartlet is based on Clinton, a two term Santos would be like a two term Gore. Not that hard to fathom, but 2014 is definitely a Republican year if he does get two terms.
For you guys we have a thread based on the West Wing after 2007 from 2008 onwards.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=109942
The electoral maps we have decided for 1998 & 2002 are slightly different to those posted here, but not that far out.
1998
Bartlet & Hoynes 303 ev
Eisenhower & Bennett 235 ev
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=109942
The electoral maps we have decided for 1998 & 2002 are slightly different to those posted here, but not that far out.
1998
Bartlet & Hoynes 303 ev
Eisenhower & Bennett 235 ev
Interesting interpretation, I opted out of giving traditionally Blue Nevada and Pennsylvania to the Dems because of how worried the Santos campaign was about carrying them (Nevada being won by only a handful of votes and Baker getting VP in part because he could deliver his home state).
That and I wanted to give Bartlet more 'southern' states than just Georgia (which is an oddball for a Dem to win alone) since Hoynes made such a big deal about how he "delivered [Bartlet] the South". Then again Hoynes is full of hot air... anyway that's my two cents.
Georgia was confirmed in the show that it went to Bartlet in 1998, the same as Florida, and as you correctly point out Maine went Republican. The actual problem is no one on the show had the actual winning lection thought out, they just dropped in information without actually thinking it through. 303 ev is an odd amount anyway, less than Clinton won in OTL in 1992 & 1996 with a strong 3rd party challenge.
Yeah, for 1998 I started with the states mentioned on the show as going to a certain candidate then worked from there. I gave the Dems their traditional states (if they weren't mentioned) and the same for the GOP. Electoral math made a few odd things happen like Washington for the GOP or Tennessee for the Dems but nothing too crazy I don't think.
As for 2002 I found the sound bites of characters saying things like "the President won all the plain states plus the Dakotas" or "we can now call Delaware for the President" and worked from there.
This map shows all the known states for 1998 I think
Where did the show say Bartlet carried Montana?
The Dakota's quote from 2002 is then contradicted by 2006 when it when it is says "North Dakota has gone Republican for the last forty years"!!
My map also gives Washington to the Republican and Michigan, so we are not that far out. I always went with the idea that Hoynes was over playing "carrying the South"
The Dakota's quote from 2002 is then contradicted by 2006 when it when it is says "North Dakota has gone Republican for the last forty years"!!
My map also gives Washington to the Republican and Michigan, so we are not that far out. I always went with the idea that Hoynes was over playing "carrying the South"
The Dakotas certainly went back and forth a lot since the only info we get is though off-hand comments. As for the south, it just seems off that Bartlet would win Georgia but not the upper South, but hey the series doesn't always pride itself on realism.
I don't recall, it's possible they didn't and Montana is marked accidentally.
Bruno Gianelli said they carried them at the re-election victory party, quite the feat since LBJ was the last Dem to do so in 1964.
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