Alternate candidates for a Decembrist Russian throne?

[Krasno]

this is somewhat related to a previous thread I made regarding a TL, but I thought this specific question was worth exploring- in the OTL Decembrist revolt, the Decembrists supported Konstantin for the Russian throne, not having known he had already declined, they began a revolt in support of him- had news got out of Konstantin's refusal earlier, or had the Decembrists been slower to act, could they have chosen another member of the Tsar's family to support? they nominated Trubetskoy as an interim leader (though I'm not sure if this refers to him being nominated as a leader for Russia or solely for the Decembrist revolt) but he's just that, interim. Is there anybody the Decembrists could have thrown their lot behind that would have given them a better shot?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@alexmilman @Valena

 

[alexmilman]

this is somewhat related to a previous thread I made regarding a TL, but I thought this specific question was worth exploring- in the OTL Decembrist revolt, the Decembrists supported Konstantin for the Russian throne, not having known he had already declined, they began a revolt in support of him- had news got out of Konstantin's refusal earlier, or had the Decembrists been slower to act, could they have chosen another member of the Tsar's family to support? they nominated Trubetskoy as an interim leader (though I'm not sure if this refers to him being nominated as a leader for Russia or solely for the Decembrist revolt) but he's just that, interim. Is there anybody the Decembrists could have thrown their l behind that would have given them a better shot?

They would lie to the soldiers anyway, as happened in the South. There was no “better shot” because with Constantine out Nicholas was in and Michael did not have a claim. But the problem with the whole “claim” issue is in the fact that the plotters did not have a single plan and a variety of the options, including assassination of the imperial family were on the table.

But, IMO, no matter what option they chose, their chances for success were minimal. Even complete assassination of the whole imperial family including Constantine would not bring them to power because:

• There were German princes on the line of succession.
• They did not control a sizable number of troops even in St.Petersburg and, even with Miloradowich assassinated, there were plenty of generals both in and outside the capital who would not go under command of colonel Trubetskoy or major general Volkonsky and had more military experience than all plotters put together.

 

[Krasno]

They would lie to the soldiers anyway, as happened in the South. There was no “better shot” because with Constantine out Nicholas was in and Michael did not have a claim. But the problem with the whole “claim” issue is in the fact that the plotters did not have a single plan and a variety of the options, including assassination of the imperial family were on the table.

But, IMO, no matter what option they chose, their chances for success were minimal. Even complete assassination of the whole imperial family including Constantine would not bring them to power because:

• There were German princes on the line of succession.
• They did not control a sizable number of troops even in St.Petersburg and, even with Miloradowich assassinated, there were plenty of generals both in and outside the capital who would not go under command of colonel Trubetskoy or major general Volkonsky and had more military experience than all plotters put together.

hm. That's unfortunate. Could they instead influence a future tsar? Say Konstantin and Nicholas both get merc'd in their respective assassination attempts- could the Decembrists use the opportunity to force a weak Tsar to heed their demands? If nothing else, could they convince Konstantin to keep the throne?

 

[Krasno]

Michael did not have a claim.

sorry for replying again, and later, but I’m curious as to what you meant by this; was Michael exempt from the line of succession in some way? Was he not 3rd in line to the throne? He was rather young during the Decembrist revolt OTL- could he not be manipulated by the decembrists if he were crowned? (Assuming the other two got… dispatched)

 

[alexmilman]

sorry for replying again, and later, but I’m curious as to what you meant by this; was Michael exempt from the line of succession in some way?

Nope. But with Nocholas alive he does not have a claim. And what sense does it make, anyway? By what was known at that time Michael, if anything, was worse than Nicholas. So was, actually, Constantine.

Was he not 3rd in line to the throne? He was rather young during the Decembrist revolt OTL- could he not be manipulated by the decembrists if he were crowned? (Assuming the other two got… dispatched)

If other two are assassinated, one of the first actions of the new emperor would be to arrest and execute the assassins.

Look, IMO, it does not make sense to pursue that subject because, unlike the simple and straightforward palace coups of the “Century of the Guards”, this one was an attempt to change an existing political system to something on which the plotters themselves could not agree upon. This was doomed because the system was generally popular. Well, an because the plotters were a bizarre mixture of the more than mediocre fools and scumbags.

 

[Krasno]

Nope. But with Nocholas alive he does not have a claim. And what sense does it make, anyway? By what was known at that time Michael, if anything, was worse than Nicholas. So was, actually, Constantine.

Nicholas being a best case scenario? That’s grim.

If other two are assassinated, one of the first actions of the new emperor would be to arrest and execute the assassins.

I didn’t necessarily mean to say the Decembrists assassinated them- there’s always someone who’s dissatisfied with the current ruler. I’ll use it as an opportunity to try and write creatively I guess ^^

Look, IMO, it does not make sense to pursue that subject because, unlike the simple and straightforward palace coups of the “Century of the Guards”, this one was an attempt to change an existing political system to something on which the plotters themselves could not agree upon. This was doomed because the system was generally popular. Well, an because the plotters were a bizarre mixture of the more than mediocre fools and scumbags.

Yeah- the Decembrists are certainly a difficult group to make succeed. I’ll have to make a few leaps- but finding excuses for unlikely events to happen is the fun part of alternate history- I’d say stranger things have happened OTL. I’ll spend some more time researching the background and important figures more and try to think of something convincing.

Thank you for the responses btw- you’ve helped me think of some fun ideas, even if I’m gonna have to struggle a bit to make them reality

 

[alexmilman]

Nicholas being a best case scenario? That’s grim.

Russian history was not exactly a long uninterrupted happy picnic so nothing new there.

I didn’t necessarily mean to say the Decembrists assassinated them- there’s always someone who’s dissatisfied with the current ruler. I’ll use it as an opportunity to try and write creatively I guess ^^

There were no people dissatisfied with Nicholas because he did not start ruling, yet. There were quite a few people who were “dissatisfied” with Constantine because he already had a chance to demonstrate that he is a deranged a—-hole.

Yeah- the Decembrists are certainly a difficult group to make succeed. I’ll have to make a few leaps- but finding excuses for unlikely events to happen is the fun part of alternate history- I’d say stranger things have happened OTL. I’ll spend some more time researching the background and important figures more and try to think of something convincing.

Thank you for the responses btw- you’ve helped me think of some fun ideas, even if I’m gonna have to struggle a bit to make them reality

“Reality” is something that could happen in the RE. 😉

 

[Krasno]

Russian history was not exactly a long uninterrupted happy picnic so nothing new there.

kek

There were no people dissatisfied with Nicholas because he did not start ruling, yet. There were quite a few people who were “dissatisfied” with Constantine because he already had a chance to demonstrate that he is a deranged a—-hole.

yeah, Constantine is easy... throw a polish assassin at him and he's out of the way
as for Nicholas... well, the heir is never safe from court intrigue 😉

“Reality” is something that could happen in the RE. 😉

ill try my best 😅

 

[alexmilman]

kek



yeah, Constantine is easy... throw a polish assassin at him and he's out of the way
as for Nicholas... well, the heir is never safe from court intrigue 😉

And here you hit a problem: there was no “court intrigue” and overwhelming majority of the Decabrists were too low on a totem poll to be a part of the court. The only intrigue that seemingly was there had been related to Constantine’s abdication and him potentially having second thoughts about it but being too cowardly to do anything besides waiting. Anyway, with his letter of abdication available the chance of his recognition by the imperial family and the Senate was quite low and what’s the sense to change Nicholas for Michael?

ill try my best 😅

 

[Krasno]

And here you hit a problem: there was no “court intrigue” and overwhelming majority of the Decabrists were too low on a totem poll to be a part of the court. The only intrigue that seemingly was there had been related to Constantine’s abdication and him potentially having second thoughts about it but being too cowardly to do anything besides waiting. Anyway, with his letter of abdication available the chance of his recognition by the imperial family and the Senate was quite low and what’s the sense to change Nicholas for Michael?

Benckendorff was purportedly a member of an organization affiliated with the Decembrists, and attempted to rat them out to the Tsar OTL- I was thinking of using him to influence the court initially, but I couldn't find any sources on that outside of an offhand statement on Wikipedia, so I'm inclined not to believe it. Alternatively, I was thinking of having the Decembrists recruit Speransky, but he had been largely discredited by the time of Alexander I's death- then again, that could make it more plausible for him to ally with the Decembrists- though I'm not sure how useful he'd be as governor of Siberia. Those are the two I'm thinking of so far- still hoping to find someone more suitable, though.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

this is somewhat related to a previous thread I made regarding a TL, but I thought this specific question was worth exploring- in the OTL Decembrist revolt, the Decembrists supported Konstantin for the Russian throne, not having known he had already declined, they began a revolt in support of him- had news got out of Konstantin's refusal earlier, or had the Decembrists been slower to act, could they have chosen another member of the Tsar's family to support? they nominated Trubetskoy as an interim leader (though I'm not sure if this refers to him being nominated as a leader for Russia or solely for the Decembrist revolt) but he's just that, interim. Is there anybody the Decembrists could have thrown their lot behind that would have given them a better shot?

One of the main reasons why the Decembrists formed was because of some policies by Alex I which angered the military, however OTL coup would never succeed since the ones who participated in the coup weren't enough to arrive to power as most of the military still supported the Tsar.
Therefore the only way I see the Decembrist coup succeeding is Al I doing even more decisions which anger the military (I honestly don't know how) meaning that most of the military either support the coup or at least don't oppose it. Since this coup is much less radical in nature it would be interesting how Russian politics continue, your TL can certainly work from this point onwards.