ahc wi Nazis lose badly in Norway

[DrakonFin]

With Norway in Allied hands they won't be able to ship through Narvik and without the Nazi's on their doorstep it should be easy to outbid the Germans for the rest of the year.

Narvik will be used to ship iron ore to the Allies, while shipments to Germany through the Baltic Sea will be stepped up somewhat in comparison to the OTL. Like I said, as long as Germany is a serious threat, Sweden's geopolitical position doesn't make it possible for it to favor the Allies too heavily. The main goal of Sweden is not to be on the winning side of the war, it is to not become a combatant in it.

 

[ArtosStark]

With Norway in Allied hands they won't be able to ship through Narvik and without the Nazi's on their doorstep it should be easy to outbid the Germans for the rest of the year.

AIUI by Winter of 1941 most Swedish Ore was taken by rail south and shipped from there rather than through Narvik anyway. I don't think holding Narvik alone would have cut off the Ore to Germany. And I would guess the Swedes will try to sell at least some to the Germans as long as they see German victory as possible.

Edit: At least halfway Ninja'd by DrakonFin

 

[Garrison]

AIUI by Winter of 1941 most Swedish Ore was taken by rail south and shipped from there rather than through Narvik anyway. I don't think holding Narvik alone would have cut off the Ore to Germany. And I would guess the Swedes will try to sell at least some to the Germans as long as they see German victory as possible.

Edit: At least halfway Ninja'd by DrakonFin

Narvik will be used to ship iron ore to the Allies, while shipments to Germany through the Baltic Sea will be stepped up somewhat in comparison to the OTL. Like I said, as long as Germany is a serious threat, Sweden's geopolitical position doesn't make it possible for it to favor the Allies too heavily. The main goal of Sweden is not to be on the winning side of the war, it is to not become a combatant in it.

Well given the chronic steel shortages Germany faced 'some' Swedish iron ore is still a disaster compared to OTL.

 

[Driftless]

With Norway in Allied hands they won't be able to ship through Narvik and without the Nazi's on their doorstep it should be easy to outbid the Germans for the rest of the year.

Denmark likely falls as quickly as it did historically. That's almost unavoidable, so the Germans are just across the Oresund. Even if the Kriegsmarine is shot to pieces, that's still only a short hop. That threat would be seriously treated by the Swedes. Until the Nazi's have French and Belgian Iron ore sources in the bag and operational, they would pressure/threaten the Swedes to continue iron ore shipments. If the Swedes see the French and British armies beaten by the Germans - in France, they'd be quite concerned about the durability of any Allied support.

 

[DrakonFin]

Well given the chronic steel shortages Germany faced 'some' Swedish iron ore is still a disaster compared to OTL.

Denmark likely falls as quickly as it did historically. That's almost unavoidable, so the Germans are just across the Oresund. Even if the Kriegsmarine is shot to pieces, that's still only a short hop. That threat would be seriously treated by the Swedes. Until the Nazi's have French and Belgian Iron ore sources in the bag and operational, they would pressure/threaten the Swedes to continue iron ore shipments. If the Swedes see the French and British armies beaten by the Germans - in France, they'd be quite concerned about the durability of any Allied support

If you want to try to estimate how the Swedish trade with the Allies and the Germans could change in different scenarios, here is a useful study for that:

Eric Bernard Golson: The Economics of Neutrality