AHC: Modernize Persia

What about the Afsharids? the Zand? Surviving Safavids or that's too far back?

Well to my knowledge it started with the Safavids, two English gun makers offering their services shortly after the Ottomans trounced them. I think it may come down to the Persians having to develop their own base and encourage domestic development rather then rely on Foreign Officers and Money.

Take the Muhammad Ali Dynasty, if they had invested into something besides cotton during the Civil War (or perhaps if the ACW hadn't happened) they may have had more economic success and not fail on their European loans.
 
Well to my knowledge it started with the Safavids, two English gun makers offering their services shortly after the Ottomans trounced them. I think it may come down to the Persians having to develop their own base and encourage domestic development rather then rely on Foreign Officers and Money.

Take the Muhammad Ali Dynasty, if they had invested into something besides cotton during the Civil War (or perhaps if the ACW hadn't happened) they may have had more economic success and not fail on their European loans.
In what ways, would you think, can Persia develop and modernize?
 
In what ways, would you think, can Persia develop and modernize?

If the Mongols - including Timur- don't ravage the place so badly as to all but desertify it, it might do so on its own at some point.

That did a lot of long term harm to Iran's cities and more importantly, agriculture.
 
If the Mongols - including Timur- don't ravage the place so badly as to all but desertify it, it might do so on its own at some point.
well, the POD needs to be after 1800 (It makes things simple;)). And. I don't think the Timurs were from that time.
 
well, the POD needs to be after 1800 (It makes things simple;)). And. I don't think the Timurs were from that time.

There is that. By the 1800s, I think Iran is in a pretty sorry way when it comes to anything much better than OTL - its best chances to do it internally are past, and none of the powers want an Iran that can stand on its own.
 
There is that. By the 1800s, I think Iran is in a pretty sorry way when it comes to anything much better than OTL - its best chances to do it internally are past, and none of the powers want an Iran that can stand on its own.
Siding towards Russia might help. Russia was never strong, and maybe it can modernize/industrialize under its "protection".
 
The main issue barring domestic development was that they consistently made extremely bad deals with Foreign Powers and Agents which resulted in the concessions that often enough debilitated the government, increased domestic upheval, and prevented domestic innovation. Which were in part due to Qadjars personal spending policies.
 
Iran's tribes tended to have a lot of power, and the Qajar were one of those tribes. Did that end under Nasser-al-Din Qajar? If so, then having him not be assassinated could be the best bet for Iran.
 
Iran's tribes tended to have a lot of power, and the Qajar were one of those tribes. Did that end under Nasser-al-Din Qajar? If so, then having him not be assassinated could be the best bet for Iran.

It would probably be better if a Non Tribal entity took control of Iran.
 
It would probably be better if a Non Tribal entity took control of Iran.
How about making a POD where Loft Ali Khan successfully wins the battle with Qajar Khan? with him winning, maybe Iran has a better chance of success in modernizing...
 
Possibly. I don't know much about the Zand or the Laks but if they are able to be more concerned over affairs of state rather then tribe/family/personal they have a shot.
 
Possibly. I don't know much about the Zand or the Laks but if they are able to be more concerned over affairs of state rather then tribe/family/personal they have a shot.

But it still depends on the ruler overcoming the tribal state of affairs; meaning that this isn't really exclusive to the Zands- a really strong, well-connected ruler could do it. Or even someone who uses the tribes as tools to modernise, which sort of resembles what the Sikhs did with their misls and even what Dost Mohammad pursued in Afghanistan.
 
But it still depends on the ruler overcoming the tribal state of affairs; meaning that this isn't really exclusive to the Zands- a really strong, well-connected ruler could do it. Or even someone who uses the tribes as tools to modernise, which sort of resembles what the Sikhs did with their misls and even what Dost Mohammad pursued in Afghanistan.

Still tribal structures, especially ones based on nomadic ones, come with a certain amount of cultural baggage that tends to lead to dynamics such as civil wars or gearing the military structure and state emphasis exclusivly toward the tribe and its cavalry. If the Zand are a non nomadic and more sedetary minded lot then while they will seek to maintain a certain sense of ethnic superiority in the social structure for themselves they will be better oriented toward the urban portion of Iranian society.

The Qadjars power base is among the Tribe, especially the ones riding horses. What were the Zand's tribal base like? What was the style of their armies during their period?

Edit:

Oh, here it is. Hmmm. Cavalry dominated.

http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/army-iv
The bulk of Karīm Khan’s manpower was recruited from among the Iranian pastoral nomads (Lor, Lak, and Kurd) of the Zagros foothills and Hamadān plains of his home range—the largely Shiʿite Baḵtīārī, Faylī Lor, Zand, Zangana, Vand, and Kalhor tribes. These were supplemented by tofanġčī and ǰazāyeṛčī units recruited, as ever, from the peasantry of the western and central provinces, but also from the Gulf littoral (Daštestān) around Būšehr; these the wakīl appreciated and, at least during his crucial campaigns of 1166/1753, treated so preferentially as to antagonize his tribal cavalry (Nāmī, Gītīgošā, p. 35; Perry, op. cit., p. 51). From the 1760s his army was augmented by qezelbāš Turkmen (Afšārs of Urmia, Qajars of Astarābād), Turkicized Kurds of Azerbaijan (Donbalī, Šaqāqī), Arabs from the Daštestān, and Iranians from Lār and Kermān—though on an occasional rather than a regular basis. These were predominantly Shiʿites. The vestigial field artillery (Amīr Khan Tūpčī-bāšī, Nāder Shah’s artillery commander on the western front, had taken his guns to Mašhad in 1162/1749; Maṛʿašī, Maǰmaʿ al-tawārīḵ, pp. 88-89) consisted chiefly of 700 zanbūraks under a Georgian officer (Perry, op. cit., p. 87).

Having gained power through diplomacy as much as by force of arms, Karīm Khan did not use his army to coerce refractory subjects or extort supplies and revenue to anything like the degree Nāder Shah had done. His standing army of Fārs during the period 1765-75 may be broken down approximately as follows (Table 9, see Fasāʾī, I, p. 219; Partow Bayżāʾī, “Tārīḵ,” 58-59; Perry, op. cit., pp. 279-80):

These numbers represent paper totals from the ledger of the laškarnevīs—perhaps about 1187/1774, during mobilization for the siege of Baṣra—and must be reduced by at least half to give a realistic assessment of available fighting forces. For example, in 1765 Niebuhr was told confidentially by a Georgian officer that the force being led by Amīr Gūna Khan against rebels at Bandar Rīg, theoretically comprising 4,000 cavalry and 6,000 infantry, in reality counted no more than 1,100 and 500 respectively fit for service (Reisebeschreibungen II, pp. 102-03). Estimates reaching Russian officials at Rašt in the late 1760s put the Shiraz garrison at no more than 4,000, backed by a few tribal and peasant levies (Arunova and Ashrafyan, “Novye materialy,” p. 111 n. 8).

The élite corps of the wakīl’s guard, the 1,400 ḡolāms (slaves), comprised 1,200 Lors armed with flintlock muskets (hence ḡelmān-e čaḵmāqī; most other musketeers still carried antiquated matchlocks) plus 200 Kurds, Georgians, and others. This body was probably a vestige of the Safavid qūllar (slaves), mounted musketeers numbering ideally 12,000 in Shah ʿAbbās’ time and originally recruited—like the Ottoman janissaries—from Christian populations of the south Caucasus (Lockhart, “The Persian Army,” p. 93). The ʿerāqī units are likewise probably a relic of the 12,000-strong Safavid tofanġčī corps. Officers numbered 6,000 in all: Their nomenclature in essence continues the Turco-Mongol decimal terminology as inherited from the qezelbāš tribes, but with the numerical component in some cases realized in Persian, thus mīn-bāšī (commander of 1,000) and yūz-bāšī (of 100), but pānṣad-bāšī (of 500) and panǰāh-bāšī (of 50) (Niebuhr, op. cit., p. 103).

And even into the 19th century the Qadjars while having make so e progress labels based themselves on tribal loyalties of the irregular cavalry. Which in itself creates a whole political duty amid in which the Shah is dependent on these Khans.

In operational terms, the irregular cavalry was still the most effective fighting element in Iran’s military forces. It had remained untouched by the European military missions and government efforts at reform. It continued to be organized exclusively on a tribal basis, the men serving under their own chiefs, and supplying their own horses and weapons. In return for keeping a specified complement of men available for service, the khans received payment in the form of a tax deduction, a dispensation of great financial value and which also symbolically diminished their acknowledgement of the central government’s authority. The chiefs frequently deducted from the revenues a sum larger than the regulation grant, the excess depending on the strength or weakness of the provincial governors. Furthermore, as with other branches of the military, whatever the discrepancy between the nominal and actual strength of the levies, the government invariably accepted the costs specified on the nominal official list. The men usually received a horse or a rifle, or the remission of some tribal tax, in return for their liability for service. When embodied for service, the irregular cavalry also received pay in the form of ration (jira) and horse (ʿaliq) allowances.Large numbers of the tribal cavalry possessed the government Werndl rifles which were sold to them by regular officers.

As well for a basis for leaving the infantry element just as weak and disorganized.

v. Recruitment.

Prior to ʿAbbās Mirzā’s reforms, men were enlisted for specific military campaigns and paid only so long as with the colors. The introduction of a standing army based on his boniča system represented an enormous increase in state expenditure, and this rudimentary form of conscription became a cross which the Iranian Treasury was forced to bear. Yet, although its financial impact was considerable, in practice, the new method of recruitment differed little from the old. The boniča system clearly defined liability for military service on the basis of a calculation of the number of plows required to keep village land under cultivation, one man per plow deemed liable.The authorities, however, totally lacking in modern administrative and bureaucratic resources, especially a census, fixed the responsibility for enforcing the system onto the village, not the individual. Thus the selection of recruits was actually made by the village elders and local landowners as the need arose and as they saw fit, much as it had been done prior to the reform (Picot, p. 97). The boniča system was never enforced systematically, and soldiers continued to be taken from traditional recruiting grounds, especially Azarbayjan. But even in Azarbayjan the application of the system became increasingly haphazard as the century progressed, because the original tax assessment according to which liability was assessed remained unrevised and became increasingly anomalous. The boniča system failed to provide the authorities with a predictable supply of trained manpower, nor did it succeed in overcoming tribal and clan-based recruiting. Some nezam regiments were composed entirely of recruits from the same tribe, and there was a preponderance of the Turkish element.

The boniča system was intensely unpopular with the peasantry. It led to the recruitment of the “village failures” while providing ample opportunity for bribery and corruption (Picot, pp. 95-98).Service in the nezam infantry and artillery was nominally for life, but a soldier might always return to civilian life, if he could scrape together enough cash to buy a discharge from his colonel or to persuade another man to serve as his substitute.
http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/army-vii-qajar
 
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Still tribal structures, especially ones based on nomadic ones, come with a certain amount of cultural baggage that tends to lead to dynamics such as civil wars or gearing the military structure and state emphasis exclusivly toward the tribe and its cavalry,....
So the Zand dynasty will be more non-tribal than the Qajars? That would have a major positive effect on TTL Iran....
 
So the Zand dynasty will be more non-tribal than the Qajars? That would have a major positive effect on TTL Iran....

Nein. The Zand are just as tribal as the Qajars at this time frame. Especially the makeup of their army. Though they were slightly more cosmopolitan and native to the Zagros Mountains.
 
Nein. The Zand are just as tribal as the Qajars at this time frame. Especially the makeup of their army. Though they were slightly more cosmopolitan and native to the Zagros Mountains.
so which one will be more helpful to modernizing persia? the zands or the qajars?
 
so which one will be more helpful to modernizing persia? the zands or the qajars?

No third option?

I suppose the Zands more then the Qajars. It all depends on the other points I have made too, especially a ruler which focuses on creating a nation administration and bureaucracy and does not make extremely poor economic choices.
 
No third option?

I suppose the Zands more then the Qajars. It all depends on the other points I have made too, especially a ruler which focuses on creating a nation administration and bureaucracy and does not make extremely poor economic choices.
I wish for a third option, but the POD is 1788 now and I can't fix that.
Perhaps the best I can do is to make the Zand dynasty most poweful amongst the tribes in Iran, and then initiating modernization.
 
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