AH Challenge-Singapore Expansion

[WorldWarZ]

First of all, is this plausible the following map below and with the two following additions;

1. Is it possible for this expanded Singapore to have a population greater than 10 million by 2010 with a POD of 1900.

2. With this expanded territory can Singapore maintain a large european population?

3. Another major city like Singapore or two?

 

[Cook]

First of all, is this plausible the following map below and with the two following additions;

Expand Singapore into Jahor and Ethnic Chinese are not going to make up the majority of the population; which is the whole reason for Singapore breaking away from the Malaysian Federation anyway.

2. With this expanded territory can Singapore maintain a large european population?

Ok, I’ll bite: Is the expanded land needed because white people are so much bigger?

 

[Flocculencio]

Expand Singapore into Jahor and Ethnic Chinese are not going to make up the majority of the population; which is the whole reason for Singapore breaking away from the Malaysian Federation anyway.

I'll address this first- the highlighted area is mainly the city of Johor Bahru which is currently 41% Chinese and 44% Malay. Historically the Chinese population was actually a bit higher. The rest of the highlighted territory is oil palm plantations and fishing villages. Demographically, incorporating that territory doesn't really change anything for Singapore.

First of all, is this plausible the following map below and with the two following additions;

1. Is it possible for this expanded Singapore to have a population greater than 10 million by 2010 with a POD of 1900.

2. With this expanded territory can Singapore maintain a large european population?

3. Another major city like Singapore or two?

As for plausibility, it takes quite a bit of doing-

First of all, that rather random slice of Batam is a bit weird. If anything's going to be incorporated the whole island would be. Doing that, however, is a bit hard because the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of 1824 puts the dividing line of influence between Britain and the Netherlands right between Singapore and the Riau Islands which is why the Malay cultural sphere is split politically the way it is.

Secondly, that slice of Johor takes some doing- Britain got the rights to Singapore because the then would-be Sultan of Johor ceded it in perpetuity in exchange for British support of his claim to the throne. He then set up his court in Johor Bahru, although the Sultans of Johor still maintain a residence in Singapore. Johor was never officially ruled directly by Britain- the Sultan took his 'advice' from a Resident while Singapore (along with Penang and Malacca) was part of the Crown Colony of the Straits Settlements. I'm not sure where the justification for taking more of the Sultan's territory would come from.

It's not that plausible. In fact incorporating the Riau Islands is probably more plausible- just have the Anglo-Dutch Treaty include Riau in the British sphere and have the Riau Islands become part of the Straits Settlements.

However, handwaving everything here's my take on your questions

1) Maybe. Singapore currently has a population of 5 million and IIRC the target by 2020 is 8 million. 10 might be possible.

2) I don't know what you mean by major European population- the European population was never particularly high and when the colonials left the MNCs took their place. I doubt the proportion of Europeans in the population ever really fluctuated that much. If anything it might be slightly higher now since white people have begun to actually come here to live and take up citizenship and raise families.

3) Highly unlikely. Basically you'd see Johor Bahru as a commuter suburb of Singapore (which is already the case to a certain extent). Again, as with the current situation, you would see industrial towns and resorts developed on the Riau islands but all revolving around the central city of Singapore. Basically like OTL except within the same political boundaries.

 

[WorldWarZ]

Thank you for the replies, so effectively a POD pre 1900 is required and the best call for expansion is the Riau islands BUT you say there would be very little chance of other cities like singapore being created?

 

[ComradeTovarich]

Thank you for the replies, so effectively a POD pre 1900 is required and the best call for expansion is the Riau islands BUT you say there would be very little chance of other cities like singapore being created?

Singapore is basically a city in itself. Any areas outside would pretty much be the suburbs. It won't do good to have two cities in such a small area of land. And yes, a pre-1900 POD would be required for Singapore to gain more land. IMO it would be awkward for Singapore to be holding on to Batam. It would be much like how Singapore used to hold Christmas island in the 1950s. OTOH, a greater Singapore encompassing chunks of Johore would not be as awkward, but it would be quite implausible as mentioned by Flocc earlier.

 

[Malice]

Confederated Malay States (Johore. Kelantan, Trengganu, Kedah, Perlis). Area: 60,447 sq km. Population: 1,459,950. Capital: Johore Bharu (p. 15,312).

Singapore: Area: 728 sq km. Population: 350,355 (4/5ths Chinese).

Source: Knaurs Konversationslexicon 1934. The population figures were based on the 1931 census.

Based on these figures if Johore was made part of Singapore it would've given Singapore more land but little else except a larger Malay population but still not enough to make a difference to Singaporean independence.

 

[WorldWarZ]

Ok then here is the ASB idea.

Malasysia/Indonesia start going tits up and basically refugees pour into neighbouring Singapore and places like New Zealand.

Rogue and they are always Rogue military personell from either nation, for this instance say Malaysia attack Singapore causing SUBSTANTIAL damage, enough to cause US/UK involvement with also perhaps say Chinese help due in part to the chinese heritage and population if Singapore.

Singapore at the end of this 'conflict' is awarded more territory as a result as the rogue persons involved are actually now /were Malaysian high command.

And for added effect have Indonesia come under fire for assisting in the attack on Singapore.


Now as I write this and you read please dont take this as being anything but ASB.

 

[Flocculencio]

Ok then here is the ASB idea.

Malasysia/Indonesia start going tits up and basically refugees pour into neighbouring Singapore and places like New Zealand.

Rogue and they are always Rogue military personell from either nation, for this instance say Malaysia attack Singapore causing SUBSTANTIAL damage, enough to cause US/UK involvement with also perhaps say Chinese help due in part to the chinese heritage and population if Singapore.

Singapore at the end of this 'conflict' is awarded more territory as a result as the rogue persons involved are actually now /were Malaysian high command.

And for added effect have Indonesia come under fire for assisting in the attack on Singapore.


Now as I write this and you read please dont take this as being anything but ASB.

It's ASB, as you point out, and is the only way something like this might be able to happen. The trouble is that even in this ASB situation Indonesia doesn't really have the amphibious capability for an attack on Singapore. As for Malaysia, amusingly enough due to conscription Singapore actually has a larger body of trained reservists than Malaysia's active duty military and reserves combined. also the 150,000 men and reservists of the Malaysian Army are spread across the Peninsula and East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) while the SAF consists of 400,000 men (45,000 active service with a reserve of 350,000 slated to mobilise within 2 days) sitting at most a half hour from the border. Bring it.

You're also right in that an attack on the Republic would most likely bring in the US- the USN shares our main naval base (we built it big enough to service a carrier for a reason) which means any potential attacker has a choice between leaving our naval capacity with a safe refit and resupply point or risking collateral damage of USN personnel and equipment.

 

[Flocculencio]

Singapore is basically a city in itself. Any areas outside would pretty much be the suburbs. It won't do good to have two cities in such a small area of land. And yes, a pre-1900 POD would be required for Singapore to gain more land. IMO it would be awkward for Singapore to be holding on to Batam. It would be much like how Singapore used to hold Christmas island in the 1950s. OTOH, a greater Singapore encompassing chunks of Johore would not be as awkward, but it would be quite implausible as mentioned by Flocc earlier.

I don't think it's a difficult as that- Christmas Island is way off in the Indian Ocean. Batam and Bintan are a 45 minute ferry ride. Even IOTL we essentially own half of Bintan (a Singapore owned company has fenced off half the island and turned it into a resort which runs on Singapore dollars, not Indonesian rupiah) and Batam is well within our economic sphere. They're already better connected to Singapore than Jakarta- Indonesia set them up as a special economic zone to take advantage of this.

 

[The Sandman]

I don't think it's a difficult as that- Christmas Island is way off in the Indian Ocean. Batam and Bintan are a 45 minute ferry ride. Even IOTL we essentially own half of Bintan (a Singapore owned company has fenced off half the island and turned it into a resort which runs on Singapore dollars, not Indonesian rupiah) and Batam is well within our economic sphere. They're already better connected to Singapore than Jakarta- Indonesia set them up as a special economic zone to take advantage of this.

So if Indonesia disintegrates at some point in the future, what are the chances of Singapore annexing those two islands in order to protect its investments?

 

[Flocculencio]

So if Indonesia disintegrates at some point in the future, what are the chances of Singapore annexing those two islands in order to protect its investments?

It's highly unlikely that Indonesia will disintegrate. Also in this day and age territory isn't just annexed. The most Singapore would be likely to do in such a situation would be to help fund, equip and support any UN peacekeepers sent to Riau.

Arguably if Indonesia is imploding, Singapore would have bigger things to worry about than annexing a couple of islands- also, if you have an army that depends on reservists and conscripts you can't just up and send off an expeditionary force.