2010 US Presidential Election

Peter_Winchester · May 2, 2009

"Hamptongate" Will Cast a Long Shadow
Politics is a rough game, and politicians need thick skins in order to fight the constant barrage of criticsm and sometimes personal attacks that they fae every day. The recent revelations that Congressman and Republican presidential hopeful Matthew Skinner has been developing a series of personal attacks on various other Republican candidates, however, has genuinely shocked the nation. At a time when public confidence in elected officials seems to be in freefall, these revelations will only reinforce the belief that modern politicians are vainglorious and amoral. "Hamptongate" has damaged the credibility of not just Skinner, but the entire Republican field and, indeed, politicians as a whole.

But it has opened up a new front for the presidential battle. Voters are likely to want a candidate who will clean up politics, not one who will rely on more soundbites, personal smears and outright deception. This "honesty centre ground", as it has been dubbed, may prove vital in the upcoming election. Whilst the smears propagated by Mandy Hampton and Daniel Crawford have done considerable damage to the credibility of the political classes, they may force politicians to run campaigns based more on honesty and issues. In the end, the long shadow of "Hamptongate" may prove to be a positive factor for politics in this country.

Marky Bunny · May 2, 2009

Peter, thanks for your posts espically on the British stuff.
I have just put your current poll numbers through electoral Calculus http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ which would mean a hung parliament.
CON 38% 260 seats
LAB 35% 306 seats
LIB 21% 53 seats
LAB 20 seats short of a majority
I have just had a look at the figures which would have given Green his narrow election win over Graty in June 2007
CON 35.5% 223 seats
LAB 36% 327 seats
LIB 25% 71 seats
LAB Majority of 4 seats

Peter_Winchester · May 2, 2009

Hmmm..... interesting. I've been trying to put some clear water between the real situation and the fictional one; things seem a lot less certain for Green than they do for Brown.

Jay Cruger · May 2, 2009

Rafferty vows not to run

U.S. Senator Ricky Rafferty, ran in 2006 as an insurgent candidate for the Democratic Nomination. Although she lost and dropped out in South Carolina, rumors spread of her forming to run again in 2010. In an interview with CNN.com Rafferty said, "It would not be in best interest to me or any funder to my campaign or for that matter the Democratic Party for me to contest the nomination of Matt Santos again."

When asked if she would support Santos or Berryhill she said "although I feel Santos might win I am not sure if I will readily endorse him".

- CNN

Jay Cruger · May 2, 2009

Post Poll Numbers

Hey guys, need tracking polls from your point of view for Gibson. Gibson recently entered the race in a 6-point trail behind President Santos if the election were between them. I cited Zogby polling, so I could use your help with the primary pollings and where he stands behind Skinner and Sullivan, etc.

disputed · May 3, 2009

Masterson Reports, Sunday May 3rd

Republican Primary National Polls

Walken 24%
Sullivan 22%
Skinner 14%
Blakemore 11%
Alexander 9%
Pratt 6%
Haffley 6%
Gibson 4%
Reed 3%
Others 1%

Poll includes leaning votes in total support

disputed · May 3, 2009

USAToday, Sunday May 3rd

GOP Primary Poll Gives Walken Advantage

For the first time in over three years a Republican primary poll is reporting a lead for former acting President Glen Allen Walken.

The poll will cause major concern in the campaign of Governor Ray Sullivan who has led every major poll since the conclusion of the 2006 Presidential Election.

The poll was carried out after the entry into the race of former Michigan Governor Marcus Blakemore and Congressman Darren Gibson but before the Hampton email scandal at the end of last week.

Blakemore's entry seems to have hit the support of Congressman Matthew Skinner, who had seen strong numbers in the narrow polls carried out after last weeks debate.

Gibson appears to be struggling to gain much traction in the early running, low media coverage and low name recognition may make it a struggle for the Michigan Congressman to gain widespread support.

Congressman Jeff Haffley appears to have the most to worry about as his strong showing in some post debate polls appears to be a polling anomoly as his support seems to have returned to the pre debate downward trend.

disputed · May 3, 2009

cnn.com, Sunday May 3rd

Walken Addresses "Honesty of politics"

Former acting President Glen Allen Walken last night acted "the growing cynical view of politicians" and promised to "clean up Washington" as President.

The 60 year old Missiouran said "I've been in politics for more than a quarter of a century and during that time we've faced many challenges, but I don't think the American people's view of their politicians has ever been lower. With this in mind I am pledging to tackle the culture of Washington, attacking Government waste, aggressively tackling earmarks, increasing accountability and ensuring transparency."

He then turned his attention to his advisors and the culture of political spin "We all know the problems it causes, somewhere along the line too many of the Washington political class have lost sight of what they are there for - I promise I will focus my entire Presidency on doing what's right, not what I think is politically expedient."

Walken, who will be encouraged this morning by the first poll showing him in the lead, was speaking at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, SC.

Peter_Winchester · May 3, 2009

Strategy Sessions: Republican Edition
From: The Strategy Group
To: The Republicans
Hmmmm..... interesting week for the Republican field. The entry of Marcus Blakemore has definitely shaken things up, and it will take some time to see how the pieces will settle.
Of course, the big event is that Acting President Glen Walken is now two points above Govenor Ray Sullivan. This will come as a shock to the Sullivan campiagn, but they should resist the urge to panic. A two-point lead in one poll does not a front-runner make. Walken should be pleased, of course, but until the pollsters and the electorate have got used to the idea of Blakemore as a candidate, most polls and focus groups are going to be fairly meaningless. The important thing is not to let the names of the candidates slide out of sight. President Santos will have his name appear in lights by virtue of his office, but you'll need to work hard to manage that.

The main problem for the entire Republican field this election is disunity; ordinary voters see Matt Santos working for the country and you squabbling amongst youselves. This is fairly unavoidable, and hopefully, a primary battle with Berryhill will even that up, but even so, we have to do what we can to reduce the effect. Some joint statements on the economy by some of the Republican candidates would go a long way. Fortunately, we seem to have got the message that its okay to agree on issues. That will help party unity and help present a united front against Santos.

From the Daily Telegraph
Government Faces Uncertain Vote on Extradition Bill
Next week, the House of Commons will vote on the Extradition Bill. This Bill will update the previous Extradition Act (2001) passed under the Meyer government. Most notably, it will include the recently signed US-UK Extradition Treaty into the UK's extradition law. Despite initial support from the Conservative Party for the bill, Leader of the Opposition James Taylor has announced that, in its current form, the treaty is "unworkable", citing the unequal burden of proof needed to extradite citizens of one country. For this reason, the Conservative Party intends to oppose the bill, unless the treaty is substantially reworked first. Although the treaty has already been agreed by the former Home Secretary, Michael O'Brien, this is the first time that Parliament will have the oppotunity to vote on it.
David Corbett, of the Liberal Democrats, has said that his party will continue its long-held opposition to the bill, unless the inclusion of the UK-US treaty is removed.
With rumours of several Labour MPs defying the whip and voting against the bill, it seems uncertain whether the bill will pass the Commons. If the bill is defeated, the position of Prime Minister John Green will be further undermined.

disputed · May 3, 2009

newyorktimes.com, Sunday May 3rd

Baker Appears On Meet The Press

The vice President Eric Baker sprung a major surprise this morning on Meet The Press when he said it was "highly unlikely" that he would seek the Presidential nomination in 2014.

Baker, who many seen as the presumptive nominee to either follow a second term for President Santos or to challenge a new Republican president, told David Gregory "you can never say never, but the position of myself and my family is that the Vice-Presidency will be the last public office I hold."

The 64 year old former Governor of Pennsylvania launched a strong defense of the President saying "He is an extraordinary man, we are faced with unprecedented challenges and he is working to resolve them. I have no doubt that history will show we have taken the right decisions to tackle economic crisis and to attempt to stabalise the geo-politcal situation."

He then turned his attention to the disenting members of the Democratic party. When asked about the comments of Orgeon Senator Ricky Rafferty he responded angrily "I don't think that the President is too concerned, he is not spending time worrying about the endorsement of Senator Rafferty. What the senator, as well as the likes of Secretary Berryhill seem to forget is the Matthew Santos is the President and leader of their party, their self centred politicking is damaging both the democratic party and the country as a whole."

Marky Bunny · May 3, 2009

CNN.COM Sunday May 3rd 2009
Haffley tells supporters "The country is like the Titanic"
Congressman Jeff Haffley told a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire this afternoon that the country was like the Titanic.
"This country gets more like the engine room on the Titanic every day. Confused orders from the bridge, water swirllng around our ankles. The only difference is they had a band".
Haffleys appearance comes as the lastest opinion polls showing him losing ground again, after building up some support following his strong performance in the first debate last Thursday.

Jay Cruger · May 3, 2009

Stackhouse says "I do like Gibson"

Minnesota Senator Howard Stackhouse said in an interview with C-SPAN's Brian Lindy that he offers his praise (not endorsement) to Darren Gibson. He said Gibson had done an extraordinary job at Washington's Inauguration spot making a speech in a nonpartisan manner.

Stackhouse: " A man who believes in agenda of nonpartisan nature, who will not politicize the Washington Inauguration cite for his own gain. Although he has an unorthodox means of campaigning, I do like his rhetoric and I do like Gibson. I think Ray Sullivan or Glen Walken should see that."

CNN/ Times currently has Congressman Gibson at 9% in the polling.

Peter_Winchester · May 3, 2009

From Jefferson Lives Political Comment Site

"This country is like the Titanic" claims Jeff Haffley at a rally in New Hampshire earlier today. With the cold, icy waters of a global recessions seeping through American politics, he might have a point. It seems like a slightly weird metaphor, but that was probably Haffley trying to sound educated. But the former Speaker of the House may well have hit the nail on the head, albeit in a way he didn't intend. Certainly, the ship that is the USA is in dire straits, and the leadership from the Oval Office certainly does not seem sufficient to guide us out. But the fact is, that, like the Titanic, no leadership is present, Republican or Democrat. In the last decade, the Republican Party has spoken of a need to return to fiscal conservatism and deregulated markets. Now, in times of economic recession, they advocate..... a return to fiscal conservatism and deregulated markets. The Republican leadership seems to be treating this election as a bad comedy; keep rehashing the same material, they say, and somebody will laugh.

Well, I've got news for them. The Republicans have been out of power for a decade for a reason; their policies do not match with those of the American people. The party needs to show people that it has changed, adapted to the times. This is not the age of Lassiter, and some people have to realise that. The Republicans can show themselves to be able to be trusted with power after the long years in exile, but not unless they are ready to campaign responsibly. By all means, maintain the core values, but adapt them for a new century. Yes, I'm looking at you, Speakers Walken and Haffley.

And that doesn't mean pure tokenism and "breaking the mold" rhetoric. Okay, so maybe I'm being hard on Matthew Skinner, but let's face it; he hasn't got a prayer with the Republican base. He knows it, his campaign knows it, and we know it. His only chance is to try and look fresh and energetic and draw votes from Democrats. Well, I for one am sick of style over substance. Santos pushed that one about as far as it can go. Let's return to real politics, not focus-group obsessed media handlers.

There is one Republican who embodies all of these characteristics, who is willing to put partisanship aside to serve his country. Arnold Vinick deserved to win in 2006, but that was not to be. Who will carry his banner now? Governor Sullivan is a possibility, but I'm not sure he's embraced it as anything more than a political necessity. The Republicans must learn what Glen Joseph learnt in Britain in '91. You cannot keep spouting the same policies in the hope you will win by default. You must reach out to the centre ground, recapture the moderates and show that your party is ready for change. It brought Meyer to power in the UK, and it can bring the Republicans back now, if only they will let it.

President_Gore · May 3, 2009

BBC - Sri Lanka Summit called soon
(May 3rd 2009)

It has been announced by the British government that a summit on a potential agreement of ceasefire between the Sri Lankan government and senior Tamil Tiger members. In the House of Commons, Foreign Secretary Rachel Lilburn said "A summit on the future of Sri Lanka is essential, whether we decide between peace or more bloodshed, the latter must not happen. Ourselves, the UN, France, Italy, the US, India and representatives of the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tigers will be attending the summit which will be held here in London from May 10th to May 13th 2009."

It is not known who will represent the governments, aside from Foreign Secretary Lilburn.

Peter_Winchester · May 4, 2009

Leaked Memo Says Government Likely To Lose Extradition Vote
A memo leaked from the Whips Office warns that despite heavy whipping, enough Labour MPs will rebel against the government to defeat the Extradition Bill. The bill will include into law the controversial US-UK extradition treaty, widely condemned by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats due to the unequal burden of proof required. In addition to Green's wafer-thin majority of four seats, the Social Democratic and Labour Party's nine MPs are expected to vote with the government, despite "reservations" about the skewed nature of the extradition treaty.
The memo further hints that the government would do better to abandon the vote rather than risk an embarrasing defeat.
Although the main part of the bill, dealing with extradition of terrorist suspects, is expected to pass easily with the support of the Conservatives, the extradition treaty amendment faces toughed opposition, from virtually all major parties. Leader of the Liberal Democrats, David Corbett has said that if the amendment is defeated, "it will become clear that John Green will have lost the confidence of the House. Should this occur, he will certainly have to resign."

disputed · May 5, 2009

msnbc.com, Tuesday May 5th

Blakemore Endorsed By Garrett Stone

Republican Presidential candidate Marcus Blakemore yesterday collected the high profile endorsement of former Texas Senator Garrett Stone.

Stone, 58, who has been mentioned as a potential running mate for a number of the top candidates, stood side by side with Governor Blakemore and former Defense Secretary Robert Kilner at a rally in Forth Worth, TX.

The former University of Texas full back said “We face many problems and we need leaders in this country who can unite us all to face them. I have no doubt that Governor Blakemore is the best man to face these challenges.”

Blakemore thanked Stone for his endorsement and re-iterated his belief in bi-partisanship and the need for the Republican Party to reach out to every American in order to win the White House.

disputed · May 5, 2009

cbsnews.com, Tuesday May 5th

Haffley “US unprepared for terrorist threat”

Congressman Jeff Haffley has attacked the Santos administration and what he called “their inability to formulate a coherent plan to deal with the terrorist threat to this country.”

Haffley said “I look at our current level of readiness and it frightens me. We have nothing like the level of resources we should have to combat such a threat. The intelligence community is under funded in this area and the emergency services completely lack the skills and expertise required. As president I would make this one of my top priorities and look at establishing a department of Homeland Security to tackle this threat.”

The former speaker was almost immediately attacked by Governor Ray Sullivan who dismissed Haffley’s approach as “desperation to find something relevant to talk about” and “scaremongering of the worst kind.” When asked about his plan to create a new department to deal with it Sullivan was equally unimpressed “It’s disappointing that a man who is claims to be such a fan of small government believes the solution to this is another large agency. I believe the current intelligence and crime fighting agencies are in need of reform, not dramatic expansion.”

disputed · May 5, 2009

washingtonpost.com, Tuesday May 5th

Political Blog with Dave Dernazza

Top 10 Republicans To Watch

Beyond the current candidates who are the next group of GOPers to watch:

10. Rep. Louise McDonald (AZ) – the current deputy minority whip in the House has seen our star rise dramatically since the ascendancy of Jim Arkin to minority leader. It is believed that Arkin talked her out of running for Governor and that she has set our sites on Bill Marienhoff’s sentate seat in 2012.

9. Clark Holloway (NJ) – The Republican front runner for gubernatorial nomination in New Jersey is polling superbly against unpopular incumbent John Treyman. The current DA is very popular and has been instrumental in the GOP revival in the Garden state.

8. Morgan Mitchell (PA) – The junior senator from Pennsylvania is a key ally of the majority leader Robert Royce and is getting increasingly good press on performance in the Senate. Policy wise is far more moderate than his brother – Ohio Congressman Robert Mitchell – and along with Royce has helped the GOP stay relevant in what is predominantly a blue state.

7. Jane Braun – The chief strategist on the Walken campaign seems destined for great things. Along with Anne Stark has been widely praised for keeping the former acting President on track. The New York Times said this past weekend “If he (Walken) had his current team four years ago, he’d already be President."

6. Senator Cody Riley (AL) – The youngest sitting Senator continues to make waves in Washington. He surprised many by co-sponsoring a campaign finance reform bill with Senator Ryan Lyndell but won across the board acclaim for ensuring it’s passage by a huge margin. At 36 he could be around for a very long time.

5. Senator Michael Brace (NJ) – The first Republican to win a Senate seat in New Jersey since 1980 stunned many by doing so in a landslide. The DNC clearly sees his seat as winnable and felt they had recruited a strong candidate in Congresswoman Annie Long to contest the seat. However, Brace has maintained a 10 point poll lead and raised $1m in the first quarter of 2009 leading to speculation that Long may drop out.

4. Governor Michael Jack (MN) – Extremely popular Governor was re-elected for second term in 2008. He has a 70% approval rating and a 55% rating amongst Democrats. The 46 year old is on most potential VP lists.

3. Governor Alison Marshall (KY) – Another Governor who ranks high on the potential VP stakes. Her pro-choice position has made her controversial in some Republican circles, but her constant railing against Government waste and spending makes her very popular with others. She’s term limited in 2012, her future after that remains unknown.

2. Senator Liz Clark (TX) – As policy chair for Senate Republicans Clark has risen quickly to be the fourth ranking member in the Republican caucus. Is extremely highly regarded by the majority leader and has is a key player on the ongoing budget negotiations where she is receiving much credit as the reasonable voice of the GOP.

1. Governor Stephen Kendrick (IN) – Inthe current economic climate, a former economist and CEO looks a pretty strong bet as the go to guy for GOP strategy. Kendrick has a strong approval rating having been in the job since 2007, faces re-election next year but is polling 25 points ahead of the top potential Dem challenger. At 48, looks to have a big future so expect to see his name banded around as a potential VP next year.

disputed · May 5, 2009

washingtonpost.com, Tuesday May 5th

Political Blog with Dave Dernazza (part 2)

Top 10 Democrats To Watch

Who are the Democrats to watch in the next few years?

10. Sam Seabourne (CA) – The DNC’s favored candidate for Justine Avery’s Senate seat next year. Currently the Deputy White House Chief of Staff is admired on both sides of the aisle and should he run against Richard Lassiter next year should make for a heavyweight contest.

9. Former Governor Gabe Tillman (CA) – The former Governor has kept his powder dry on long sabbatical since leaving office. However, recent developments suggest that he is now weighing up a return to front line politics. He’s been mentioned a potential candidate for the California Senate seat in 2010, and he’d likely be a front runner for a Presidential bid in 2014.

8. Rep. Will Bailey (OR) – One of two Oregon democrats on the list, Bailey remains a back bencher but one with powerful advocates in former President Bartlett and former Vice President Russell. Bailey recently joined the committee for foreign affairs which many are hailing as a breakthrough moment for the freshman.

7. Governor Mark Katzenmoyer (WI) – The Governor of Wisconsin was re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008, has strongly opposed the military interventions in Gaza and Kazakhstan and is believed by many on the left to be the most promising potential successor to Santos.

6. Senator Ricky Rafferty (OR) – Her brief run in 2006 done enough to boost her profile and position her as a key player in the Democratic Party. Surprised many last week by refusing to back the President over Secretary Berryhill, it’s a decision that may well make or break her.

5. Senator Tim McCord (SC) - Seen by many as influential in securing South Carolina for Matt Santos in 2006, and will no doubt need to be again in what will be a key swing state. He has been mentioned as a possible Secretary of Energy if Santos is re-elected.

4. Senator Andrew Thorn (NY) – New York’s Junior Senator appears to be destined for big things. Was mentioned as a potential Commerce Secretary in the Santos administration, more recently has been suggested by Daily Kos as a potential replacement for White House Chief of Staff Josh Lyman.

3. Miles Hutchison (VA) – Bartlett’s Secretary of Defense is polling well ahead of next months Democratic primaries for Governor. If he can see off Congressman Noah Gellman he looks well placed against Republican front runner Rob Buchanan. As Governor of Virgina, he would be well placed for a Presidential run in 2014.

2. John Nolan (NY) – Amazing fund raising numbers have cemented the former Orwell Group CEO as the Democratic front runner for Governor of New York. Seen by many as a Blue Dog Democrat, it will be interesting to see if he can see off either of the high profile Republicans – Blake Marshall or Andrew Casey – to win the state house.

1. Rep. Carol Gelsey (FL) – Many speculated that Floridian Gelsey was number two on the Santos VP shortlist after Eric Baker, and with Baker ruling out a run in 2014 some are suggesting that Santos should take another look at the bottom of the ticket. She was considering a run at Rafe Framhagen’s senate seat but talk of that has cooled since Rob Ritchie announced he was running. She’s more likely to make a second run at Governor or challenge Seth Randall for his seat in 2012.

Peter_Winchester · May 5, 2009

((What exactly happens to Santos' budget now? I don't know enough about the American system to know what the process is.))