Hello again from 535.com! From Florida the sunshine state, to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The Keystone State, the Quaker State, the State of Independence, a state that has become remarkably democratic in recent years and has begun showing it in the past few elections. In the past three Presidential elections, it has voted democrat, and while its congressional delegation was generally balanced before the 2000 midterms when it began leaning democrat. We'll now hand it over to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporter Harry Gardner.
Thanks! I'm beyond honored that I've been asked to write this up for 535. It's a great project, and I feel privileged to be a part of it. Now I'm from Pittsburgh, and I was the deputy-campaign manager of Jackson Kennedy's run for Mayor two years ago. I hope that gives the readers an understanding of my politics and where I'll be coming from in this report. Pennsylvania as it was previously mentioned, has become increasingly more democratic in recent years, but it is still a fairly divided state politically. And if it weren't for former Vice-President Baker, and the democratic political machine that is working non-stop, President Santos might not be doing quite as well. Here we go:
Senior Senator: Robert Royce, Republican
Senator Robert Royce has the support of every republican in the senate as he is Majority Leader. First elected in 1992, he was young and charismatic, and a Republican elected over popular Senator Eddie Calhoun. He is very moderate, and has helped woo independents to the GOP with his stances on abortion (he's pro-choice), the environment (he believes in Global Warming), and of course, tax cuts. He has been very popular in the state for most of his career, and seemed poised to be elected to a fourth term. Until...
Electoral Prospects: Tossup. Stephen Collins, a Congressman from the 7th district, surprisingly has given Royce a run for his money. He was on a roll after winning the nomination, and in mid-July even took a narrow lead of Royce. However, Royce got lucky with rumors of Collins being tied to a PMC that survived his investigation, and has pulled ahead, still within the margin of error.
Committee Assignments: Intelligence (ex officio) as Majority Leader
Junior Senator: Morgan Mitchell, Republican
Still getting his feet warm, Mitchell was the Attorney General of Pennsylvania before 2006 when he decided to run for the Senate. Facing a popular incumbent in Senator Dayton McKenna, his moderate positions in contrast to McKenna who was a little more left-leaning, gave him the razor thin edge, winning 50.1-49.5. He has since made quite the name for himself, he is a libertarian at heart, but has been able to wear the moderate cap since joining the Senate. He has recently been put in the spotlight for taking a bribe from a health insurance company to vote no on the Healthcare reform package President Santos sent to congress in 2008.
Electoral Prospects: Lean Republican. While Mitchell, prior to these allegations, was incredibly popular, and still is, there are many rumors flying amuck as to who might challenge him in 2012. Many democrats are pointing the finger to Mayor Jackson Kennedy of Pittsburgh, who despite only being in charge of one city, is very popular in the state. There is still over two years to see what happens, but if Kennedy decides to run, this Lean Republican seat, could become a tossup or even a Lean Democrat.
Committee Assignments: Finance, Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
1st: Jacob Klein, Democrat
Ahhhhh, to the good ol' days of D. Wire Newman... Klein was elected in 1986 and ran pretty much on the exact agenda that Newman did. He was in favor of fighting directly against the might of the USSR, and described himself as: "Socially moderate, fiscally liberal, and foreign policy wise a die-hard conservative." He may perhaps be most famous for his speech at the 1994 democratic convention and his, "declaration of war on wall street." He has long been an advocate for harsher regulations on Wall Street, and sees it as biggest threat to America today.
Electoral Prospects: Safe Democrat, Klein's district sits on the edge of Philadelphia, and scouts around, nearing New Jersey, and into Delaware county. The GOP is running Jimmy Harrington, the mayor of Darby. Klein leads in the polls on average by 17 points.
Committee Assignments: Judiciary, Financial Services (Chairman)
2nd: Arthur Conforth, Democrat
Arthur Conforth, the resident utopianist of congress, forever believing in the good of mankind. He was an early supporter of President Santos' education plan, as a good first step for the country to modernize its education system. He has put himself in jeopardy numerous times as he defended the Russian Revolution of 1917, and praised Lenin and Trotsky as, "Brave men to be admired." However, most people have learned to tune him out when he starts talking about communism and such... And while he is a bit older(67), he definitely has had an impact on some members of the Youth in Revolt, speaking at some of their rallies, notably the one in mid-July that led to the arrest of 5 activists.
Electoral Prospects: Likely Democrat, the only reason its a likely democrat, is that Conforth is seen by many as a "loony on the left." And that if the GOP picked the right candidate to run, he could feasibly be defeated. The GOP has no idea what its doing in Philadelphia, so Conforth will hold his seat.
Committee Assignments: House Administration, Oversight and Government Reform
3rd: Alberto Moltisanti, Republican
If Arthur Conforth is the modern day reincarnation of Sir Thomas More and his Utopia, Alberto Moltisanti is the modern day equivalent of Niccolo Machiavelli. He has, on numerous occasions, stated that he believes in capitalism more than he does democracy. He believes that so long as the government does not interfere with people's right to their own money, it is fine. But as soon as a bit of regulation touches the economy, his hands jump to vote nay.
Electoral Prospects: Lean Democrat, it's a wonder Moltisanti has stayed in office for eight years, but now the dems finally have someone with a pulse running against him in District Attorney of Eerie County, Natalie Taylor. Taylor is quite liberal and has been endorsed by many major Pennsylvania democrats, her positions regarding Wall Street mirror those of Jacob Klein.
Committee Assignments: Small Business, Energy and Commerce
4th: Erin Gatwood, Democrat
Blue dog, blue dog, blue dog. Gatwood, in her 14 years in congress, has only voted with her party 57% of the time. Stoker Hanson of Georgia, the independent who caucuses with the dems, votes with the dems more than Gatwood does. She claims to do it in the name of progress and getting things done, but on several occasions she's been left with a deciding vote and turned to the GOP instead of her own party. Because of her membership in the Blue Dog coalition, its a bit hard to tell what her political positions actually are, but she is not a supporter of Speaker Carol Gelsey at all, and it is quite possible that she defects to the GOP in the 112th congress.
Electoral Prospects: Odd Tossup, The dems couldn't find someone more liberal to beat her in the primary, so they're going to try it in the general. Former Lance Corporal David Green of the marine corp tried to beat her in the primary, and lost by .4%! He's been encouraged by party elders to run in the general, and is doing just that. Noah Gellman has stated he still supports Gatwood, but he hasn't thrown her tons of money. And the Republicans have even thrown their support to Gatwood! We'll see what happens, but if the house ends up in a 217-217 stalemate, don't be surprised if Gatwood leaves the party for greener pastures.
Committee Assignments: Budget, Natural Resources
5th: Charles Widen, Republican
Widen's name, unfortunately, fits him well, and he makes Glen Walken circa 2003 look like a supermodel. He is but 5'10, and weighs 320 pounds!!! But he is a giant cuddly ball of kindness, one of the absolute nicest people on the hill, he's always someone you can converse with. He's been known to strike up conversations with random citizens on the streets of Washington, and in his home district. He is a moderate republican who almost always votes with his home districts' best interests, be that with the party or not. He tends to hold town hall meetings once every month so that he will always know what they want. He truly represents what a member of the House of Representatives is supposed to be.
Electoral Prospects: Safe Republican, the district is certainly GOP-leaning, but if it weren't for Widen's widespread popularity, it could be a swing district. And the dems don't really feel the need to take out Widen, as he has voted with them on certain issues.
Committee Assignments: Appropriations, Foreign Relations
6th: Alex Walker, Republican
Walker is simply a place holder. A place holder for one of the greatest house battles the country has seen in decades. He won in 2008, but has no intention of running again, he is 83 years old, and did it to get his mind off the fact his wife of 60 years did in early 2008.
Electoral Prospects: Ultimate Tossup, this will be one of the best house races to watch this fall. Two mayors, with a long history of facing each other, from rival towns, will go head to head this fall. The Republicans have selected Mayor Lydia Daniels of Phoenixville to lead the charge in the fall against Mayor Gino Medici of Pottstown. The two towns' high schools have a resident rivalry that has put the two parts of the district against each other. Medici has a narrow lead by about 1.5 points, but this is going to be a nail bitter to follow to the end.
Committee Assignments: House Administration
7th: Stephen Collins, Democrat
One of the more promising names for the democrats. He is a strong, ardent liberal that has fought hard against corruption while in the House, and has been heavily influenced by both state and national democrats to run for higher office. A member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, he has been portrayed by republicans as a firebrand partisan, however that is very untrue. In 2008 and 2009 during his congressional investigation into Private Military Companies, he worked closely with many republicans. He is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-unions, pro-environmental reform, and pro-wall street reform. One of the key factors of his campaign for Senate against Robert Royce, is that he is able to run almost a completely positive campaign.
Electoral Prospects: Likely Democrat, while Collins is off fighting for a senate seat, the democrats look to secure the hold on this once swing district seat. They are running a heavyweight in district attorney of Philadelphia County, Kristin Porter. The GOP is hoping that former wall street big-shot Ronny Romero can use his money to take the seat.
Committee Assignments: Foreign Relations, Ways and Means, Financial Services
8th: Matt Claussen, Democrat
Claussen is an up-and-comer, who, if he was in a different state might have a brighter future in the democratic party. With Collins, Kennedy, and Kellner as the major players of the Pennsylvania democrats, he'll have to wait a bit longer to get his chance to shine. But that doesn't mean he is not impressive. He has shown his prowess in working with Republicans and conservative democrats on key legislative issues, and many see him, as one of the reasons the dems were able to squeeze out a victory on the education bill in the house. If he waits a few more years, he might make a run for the governorship, but for now, he's a rising star in the house at only age 40, he's got a while to make a name for himself.
Electoral Prospects: Safe Democrat, while the district is generally only a lean dem, Claussen's popularity makes this far more safe. The GOP is trying its best with city councilman Daryl Brick of Quakerstown, but its unlikely he'll do anything, even with his relatively moderate positions.
Committee Assignments: Judiciary, Financial Services
9th: Travis Hoyt, Republican
Hoyt was once the mayor Altoona and made waves at the 2002 Republican National Convention as he denounced President Bartlet and his "communist economic policies," and further claimed that anyone who didn't call themselves a conservative was "unpatriotic" and "guilty of treason," and while his positions are very far out there, he is very well educated. He went to Pitt for undergrad, and Yale law school and has engaged on the congress floor in debates with well reasoned arguments. And the best news for the republicans: He's only 45. Elected in 2000, his star will continue to rise, and he's being encouraged by national republicans, including Liz Clark, to prepare to run for the governor's house in four years.
Electoral Prospects: SAFE Republican, no democrat has challenged in this district since the days of Truman. And they won't challenge now.
Committee Assignments: Natural Resources, Budget
10th: Debby Dawn, Democrat
Congresswomen Dawn has a very funny name, If only her last name was "Dawner," then we could all call her "Debbie Dawn-er (as in downer!)" Her biggest blunder came in 2004 during a summit with Brazilian President Marco Da Luca. When she greeted the President, she said, "Hola como estas?" which is spanish. She failed to realize that in Brazil, the people speak Portuguese. And while President Da Luca didn't seem to be offended, his staff did, and demanded an apology. She's made many democrats do the "face-palm" movement, but still standing.
Electoral Prospects: Likely Democrat, even though Dawn has made her fair share of blunders, she is genuinely liked in her district. Her ditzy nature make her constituents that she is simply down to earth. She'll hold the seat unless she shoots herself in the foot.
Committee Assignments: Natural Resources, Judiciary, Science and Technology
11th: Anna Alberin, Democrat
Alberin the famed liberal "kicked out of California," she was the last democrat to hold the California 47th congressional district, which was in 1990, before Chuck Webb took over. She then quickly moved to the east to restart her life, getting a job in Harrisburg as a lawyer, before retiring to a town where her older sister lived in Hazleton. Then, in 2006, the district that was held by a moderate-right leaning republican in Sidney Krause, and the DCCC came calling, and Alberin won the democratic nomination and became one of the only people to serve more than one state in congress.
Electoral Prospects: Lean Democrat, the district is a mild swinger, but always leans dem. Alberin will attempt to break the trend that she set in California and win a fourth term. She leads Carbon County Assistant District Attorney Brian Roberts in the polls, 56-40.
Committee Assignments: Appropriations, Foreign Relations
12th: Brayden Greene, Democrat
While he is young, and new to Washington, looking for reform, he is not the same kind of young, outsider, reformer the democratic party has seen flood its numbers. While the Youth in Revolt have the limelight, Brayden Greene has a different approach. Instead of seeing America become too liberal, or too conservative, he wants to see the collapse of the partisan politics of the country. He wants to see the country unite on every issue, rather than be divided by all of them. He has become very popular and his mindset on a different kind of change has drawn a lot of attention to himself. He is only 32 years old, and will easily win a second term.
Electoral Prospects: Likely Democrat, while the district tends to lean ever-so-slightly to the right, Greene's popularity and approach on politics makes it more likely to be a democratic hold this fall.
Committee Assignments: Science and Technology, Budget
13th: Lydia Hemmer, Democrat
Hemmer is a unique blend of what some call "Modern Americanism," her moderate-left social positions, moderate-right economic positions, and moderate positions on education and healthcare reform has made pretty much everyone happy. Democrats love her because she is generally a reliable vote (however there is rumbling this may change soon with Speaker Gelsey running the show, and soon, the caucus) on social issues, willing to work towards the best education and health care reform packages, and often enough on economic issues. While on the GOP side, they've appreciated her positions on wall street reform (virtually none) and gun control.
Electoral Prospects: Safe Democrat, though the district is generally more liberal than Hemmer, she's got so much support from party establishment, no real challenger could do any harm. The republicans aren't even running a candidate against her. However, the libertarians are, choosing Glenside independent mayor, Evan Musian as their nominee. He's doing better than expected, with Hemmer leading in the polls 70-28, but that's 25 points better than most thought he could do.
Committee Assignments: Financial Services, Ways and Means
14th: Kim Sanderson, Democrat
The ancient, truly ancient, Sanderson has been a legend among congressional democrats. One of the founding members of the Congressional Black Caucus, she's made her reputation on ushering younger people into taking part in their democracy. Her organization, Into Action, is very popular in Pittsburgh and has a proud face behind it in Jackson Kennedy, and Governor Michael Kellner has attempted to make it more broad in cities across the state. She's retiring this year, but will leave behind quite a powerful legacy in 20 years in the house.
Electoral Prospects: SAFE Democrat, While Sanderson is retiring this year, she will be replaced by someone who stands in the big shadow of their younger brother. Samantha Kennedy, the older sister by 4 years of Mayor Jackson Kennedy. She is currently a law professor at University of Pittsburgh, and is guaranteed to win the seat against former City Councilman Lowrie Vorten, leading 77-20.
Committee Assignments: Judiciary, Foreign Relations, Ways and Means
15th: Albert Francis, Republican
Francis is the Republican equivalent of James Gatsby. It's as if he's from a different time, his manners make all the ladies, even those that are married, quite flattered. His policies are somewhat of a blur, however, his mastery at words in foreign policy is what makes sure he stays in power. He was quite masterful on a trip through Latin America in 2000 with then Vice-President John Hoynes, when the latter offended every single head of state (8 in total) on a 5 day trip. He somehow managed to salvage it with his magical words.
Electoral Prospects: Tossup, Francis is retiring, fed up with Washington politics, he plans on returning home to his home town of Bethlehem and running for mayor.
Committee Assignments: Foreign Relations, Science and Technology
16th: Jeff Pitter, Republican
Pitter is a stereotypical republican. A member of the christian-right, against big government, anti-bank regulation, believes the government has no place in ordinary citizens pocket books. He's ready and willing to call out democrats on their incorrect beliefs, but also hasn't hesitated in hitting republican leadership, and he's been particularly keen on hitting Robert Royce. Mainly because he's too moderate for Pitter!!! Pitter is seen as a leader of the conservative "ACA/Haffley Wing" of the Republican party, and if Royce doesn't get his support for the campaign, the conservative base might not show up for the big day.
Electoral Prospects: Safe Republican, Pitter's district is fairly gerrymandered and is in no danger of losing his seat anytime soon.
Committee Assignments: Financial Services, Oversight and Government Reform
17th: Anthony Cipriani, Democrat
Cipriani has a funny reputation. Once a proud and prominent member of the Leone Crime Family(mafia) in Philadelphia, rumor had it that he was actually so high up in the ranks that he had reached the position of "Caporegime." A position that would put him 3rd or 4th in the line of succession. Then, he left. For some reason, he had enough and retired to Harrisburg, where he was born. A few years past, and in 2002 he decided to get into politics, and ran for mayor of Harrisburg. His opponent then, Martin O'Malley, hit him hard on his past and has ever since. He is pro-life, anti-gay marriage, but very much in favor of wall street regulation, higher taxes for the rich, and serious Health care reform. Making him an odd socially conservative, fiscally liberal democrat. He refers to himself as a "traditional democrat."
Electoral Prospects: Lean Democrat, while the district is fairly conservative outside of the capital (Harrisburg), Cipriani's unique political positions make him fairly popular.
Committee Assignments: Financial Services, Judiciary
18th: Joseph Bruno, Republican
Bruno has been a unique member of congress. Some have called him a "loony in the middle," as he votes pretty much whichever way he wants to. Simply put, he votes which ever way he wants to. He has never really stood for anything and is being portrayed by the DCCC as a fool who has no morales. National Republicans are calling him a maddening maverick. He's not getting much support from either side.
Electoral Prospects: Tossup, while it is generally a likely republican, Bruno is just so far out of the loop that most see anyone else as a better candidate. Mayor of Greensburg Talon Boswell, who is incredibly popular in his city, and has about 4 million of his own personally raised money for the campaign, let alone cash Noah Gellman will throw him to help him win. Bruno will need some help from Royce and Mitchell if he hopes to get any momentum to get back on track.
Committee Assignments: Natural Resources, House Administration
19th: Chris Franklin, Republican
Franklin is part of a dying breed. A breed he's done his best to revive. As the republicans drift further and further to the left, guys from the 80s like Franklin and leaving the wake of everything. He is a self-described "Rockefeller Republican," and has done his best to find guys that can replenish the moderate/liberal wing of the GOP, he helped bring about the rise of Mitchell Morgan who will be his lasting legacy. He has said this is his last year he'll run.
Electoral Prospects: The dems have no real desire to unseat Franklin, when he has been a proven deal maker for the past 24 years. But the greens do. Ralph Pardon, a democrat who the party refused to back, switched to the Green Party, and is doing surprisingly well, all facts considering. Franklin leads 62-35, which is incredibly for Pardon to be doing, and in a generally GOP leaning district.
Committee Assignments: Judiciary, Natural Resources, Budget