From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 5 January 2011:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1100 PM AST WED JAN 5 2011
...ARLENE STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND WEAKENING ONLY SLOWLY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 65.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS ARLENE APPROACHES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...255 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS ARLENE APPROACHES. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
--------------------
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 6 January 2011:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1100 PM AST THU JAN 6 2011
...ARLENE WEAKENING BUT STILL A HURRICANE AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 63.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...216 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...225 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN BERMUDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS SUBSIDING...BUT SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA TODAY DUE TO LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SWELLS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
--------------------
From Flushing Out the Rats: The Campaign to Eliminate al-Qaeda, by Florida Stewart:
...Even after Osama bin Laden's capture in January 2011, his heavily-publicised trial that March, and his execution in Virginia's electric chair on 1 June of the same year, the war against al-Qaeda was still not over, as large parts of the organisation still survived despite the decapitation of its leadership, and these cells remained extremely dangerous, regarding bin Laden a martyr for their cause and foaming at the mouth for vengeance; worse, many of the cells were outside the control of bin Laden's official successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and consequently Zawahiri's proclamations could no longer be relied on to speak for large parts of the organisation. Among the largest and most powerful of these rogue cells were al-Qaeda's branches in Iraq, South Arabia, and North Africa, with the Iraqi cells continuing to nip at the U.S. and Coalition forces occupying their country and trying to root them out, proving resilient despite taking heavy casualties and continuing to wear down on the morale of the occupying troops; compounding this problem, the U.S. troops in Iraq were already being withdrawn stateside, their country unable to simultaneously rebuild the devastation left by Hurricane Igor and continue to pay for a costly and highly-unpopular war in Iraq, and the British forces in the country, already scheduled to be withdrawn before the end of the year, would have had massive difficulties controlling the insurgency on their own even had they stayed long-term.
In South Arabia, meanwhile, al-Qaeda continued to feed off of Yemen's rapid spiral into chaos, with both Shi'ite insurgents in the north, Southern separatists calling for Yemen to split back into its northern and southern parts (as it had been up to 1990), al-Qaeda fighting its own war against the Yemeni government in the east and south of the country, and, starting in January 2011 and escalating rapidly after March, generalised anti-government forces which started out with peaceful protests against the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but which, after brutal crackdowns by pro-Saleh forces, took up arms, becoming yet another belligerent in the now five-sided civil war. As would be expected, al-Qaeda benefited greatly from the fragmentation of its opposition, cementing its rule over several of Yemen's southeastern provinces and becoming strong enough to funnel large quantities of arms and veteran fighters to Somalia's al-Shabaab, which had in various forms long controlled much of the country, with the exception of the secessionist state of Somaliland in the far northwest and the autonomous but pro-government Puntland area in the northeast, but which had been flagging recently in the face of a TFG (Transitional Federal Government) offensive backed up by considerable African Union support, losing control of much of Jubaland in the far south and southwest of the country despite its merger just a few months before with its former rival Hizbul Islam. al-Qaeda's support for al-Shabaab proved a massive boost to the latter organisation, a fact which was proven dramatically that July when a joint TFG\AU offensive across the Giuba River was repulsed with heavy casualties, after which both sides dug in and the frontline stalemated, with al-Shabaab and the pro-TFG forces watching each other across the Giuba and exchanging sporadic artillery duels across the river.
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, meanwhile, drew their own support from being one of the most visible groups opposing the unpopular governments of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and the less-unpopular but still commonly disliked governments of Algeria and Morocco, easily eclipsing and outcompeting those who wished to see said governments overthrown peacefully and replaced with democracies. The democratic opposition, fragmented to begin with, was rapidly trounced in its attempts to simultaneously oppose the governments and al-Qaeda, despite many taking up arms in their desperation and attempting to fight fire with fire; by the summer of 2011, the remaining democrats were reduced to a handful of isolated strongholds, under siege by either government or jihadist forces, and the main anti-government forces in the civil wars in Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt and the festering insurgency in Morocco were al-Qaeda in its various forms. Many disaffected former democrats, as well as large numbers who were only lukewarm about democracy and held strong desires to see Sharia law set as the highest authority in Islamic North Africa, flocked to al-Qaeda, swelling their numbers drastically.
By the summer of 2011, therefore, al-Qaeda may well have already become stronger than it was before bin Laden's capture, and it would continue to strengthen in the coming months...
--------------------
21 March 2011
Lagos, Nigeria
The nurse paced nervously. The patient in the isolation ward continued to bleed profusely from every orifice, and his life signs were fading rapidly; not knowing what afflicted him, samples of his blood, saliva, and sputum had been sent in for testing. She desperately hoped that whatever it was, it was something not highly contagious, for he had already been showing symptoms when he had been admitted to the hospital; unfortunately, the symptoms themselves threatened that it was, indeed, something significantly contagious, and also highly dreaded throughout sub-Saharan Africa...
At that moment, the lab technician rushed through the door with a page of test results in his hand and a thousand-yard stare on his face.
"What is it?" the nurse asked, thinking, Please, God, please, let it not be what I think it is...
Her worst fears were confirmed, however, by the lab tech's words:
"Ebola."
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1100 PM AST WED JAN 5 2011
...ARLENE STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND WEAKENING ONLY SLOWLY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 65.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS ARLENE APPROACHES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...255 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS ARLENE APPROACHES. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
--------------------
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 6 January 2011:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1100 PM AST THU JAN 6 2011
...ARLENE WEAKENING BUT STILL A HURRICANE AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 63.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...216 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...225 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN BERMUDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS SUBSIDING...BUT SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA TODAY DUE TO LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SWELLS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
--------------------
From Flushing Out the Rats: The Campaign to Eliminate al-Qaeda, by Florida Stewart:
...Even after Osama bin Laden's capture in January 2011, his heavily-publicised trial that March, and his execution in Virginia's electric chair on 1 June of the same year, the war against al-Qaeda was still not over, as large parts of the organisation still survived despite the decapitation of its leadership, and these cells remained extremely dangerous, regarding bin Laden a martyr for their cause and foaming at the mouth for vengeance; worse, many of the cells were outside the control of bin Laden's official successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and consequently Zawahiri's proclamations could no longer be relied on to speak for large parts of the organisation. Among the largest and most powerful of these rogue cells were al-Qaeda's branches in Iraq, South Arabia, and North Africa, with the Iraqi cells continuing to nip at the U.S. and Coalition forces occupying their country and trying to root them out, proving resilient despite taking heavy casualties and continuing to wear down on the morale of the occupying troops; compounding this problem, the U.S. troops in Iraq were already being withdrawn stateside, their country unable to simultaneously rebuild the devastation left by Hurricane Igor and continue to pay for a costly and highly-unpopular war in Iraq, and the British forces in the country, already scheduled to be withdrawn before the end of the year, would have had massive difficulties controlling the insurgency on their own even had they stayed long-term.
In South Arabia, meanwhile, al-Qaeda continued to feed off of Yemen's rapid spiral into chaos, with both Shi'ite insurgents in the north, Southern separatists calling for Yemen to split back into its northern and southern parts (as it had been up to 1990), al-Qaeda fighting its own war against the Yemeni government in the east and south of the country, and, starting in January 2011 and escalating rapidly after March, generalised anti-government forces which started out with peaceful protests against the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but which, after brutal crackdowns by pro-Saleh forces, took up arms, becoming yet another belligerent in the now five-sided civil war. As would be expected, al-Qaeda benefited greatly from the fragmentation of its opposition, cementing its rule over several of Yemen's southeastern provinces and becoming strong enough to funnel large quantities of arms and veteran fighters to Somalia's al-Shabaab, which had in various forms long controlled much of the country, with the exception of the secessionist state of Somaliland in the far northwest and the autonomous but pro-government Puntland area in the northeast, but which had been flagging recently in the face of a TFG (Transitional Federal Government) offensive backed up by considerable African Union support, losing control of much of Jubaland in the far south and southwest of the country despite its merger just a few months before with its former rival Hizbul Islam. al-Qaeda's support for al-Shabaab proved a massive boost to the latter organisation, a fact which was proven dramatically that July when a joint TFG\AU offensive across the Giuba River was repulsed with heavy casualties, after which both sides dug in and the frontline stalemated, with al-Shabaab and the pro-TFG forces watching each other across the Giuba and exchanging sporadic artillery duels across the river.
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, meanwhile, drew their own support from being one of the most visible groups opposing the unpopular governments of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and the less-unpopular but still commonly disliked governments of Algeria and Morocco, easily eclipsing and outcompeting those who wished to see said governments overthrown peacefully and replaced with democracies. The democratic opposition, fragmented to begin with, was rapidly trounced in its attempts to simultaneously oppose the governments and al-Qaeda, despite many taking up arms in their desperation and attempting to fight fire with fire; by the summer of 2011, the remaining democrats were reduced to a handful of isolated strongholds, under siege by either government or jihadist forces, and the main anti-government forces in the civil wars in Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt and the festering insurgency in Morocco were al-Qaeda in its various forms. Many disaffected former democrats, as well as large numbers who were only lukewarm about democracy and held strong desires to see Sharia law set as the highest authority in Islamic North Africa, flocked to al-Qaeda, swelling their numbers drastically.
By the summer of 2011, therefore, al-Qaeda may well have already become stronger than it was before bin Laden's capture, and it would continue to strengthen in the coming months...
--------------------
21 March 2011
Lagos, Nigeria
The nurse paced nervously. The patient in the isolation ward continued to bleed profusely from every orifice, and his life signs were fading rapidly; not knowing what afflicted him, samples of his blood, saliva, and sputum had been sent in for testing. She desperately hoped that whatever it was, it was something not highly contagious, for he had already been showing symptoms when he had been admitted to the hospital; unfortunately, the symptoms themselves threatened that it was, indeed, something significantly contagious, and also highly dreaded throughout sub-Saharan Africa...
At that moment, the lab technician rushed through the door with a page of test results in his hand and a thousand-yard stare on his face.
"What is it?" the nurse asked, thinking, Please, God, please, let it not be what I think it is...
Her worst fears were confirmed, however, by the lab tech's words:
"Ebola."
Last edited:
