From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 3 January 2011:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1100 PM AST MON JAN 3 2011
...ARLENE STILL STEADILY STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...50 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...235 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
--------------------
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 4 January 2011:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1100 PM AST TUE JAN 4 2011
...ARLENE STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND STILL NOT WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 67.8W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA SOONER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 55 MILES...90 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES...290 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS ARLENE APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
--------------------
From Bermuda in the 21st Century, by Kimberly Carpenter:
...Perhaps Bermudians had been lulled into a false sense of security. In 2003, Hurricane Fabian had made a direct hit on the islands at Category 3 intensity, and while significant damage ensued, only four people died, all of whom had been foolish enough to try to cross the Bermuda Causeway during the storm and were washed into the sea. Perhaps the inhabitants of the island cluster had come to believe that no mere hurricane could dislodge them from their islands, that no matter how much damage the storm caused and how many homes it destroyed they would always be able to hunker down, live through it, and rebuild and carry on with their lives afterwards.
Igor shattered that assumption.
As the hurricane approached the islands, a hurricane warning was declared and residents were urged to evacuate. Few did so, however, apparently believing that Fabian had proven that Bermudians were a tough people, capable of shrugging off hurricanes like a Wellington boot shrugs off mud. Unlike Fabian, however, Igor was not a Category 3, but instead a Category 5, and a strong one at that. Perhaps they had been lulled by Igor's behaviour in the preceding days. Just recently, it had started to sharply weaken, coming close to dropping back down to Category 4, itself only one step above Category 3 - Fabian's category. Unfortunately for Bermuda, that weakening was the result of an eyewall replacement cycle, one which would also cause Igor to increase greatly in size. As the inhabitants of Bermuda watched on television, they saw Igor blowing up like a balloon in the satellite pictures, and for most of them, this was the final impetus in getting them to heed the pleadings of Premier Ewart Frederick Brown and evacuate the islands - a decision that for nearly all of them, beyond doubt, saved their lives.
Unfortunately, that sudden and massive inflation also meant that high winds and rain also began to arrive at Bermuda much earlier than had been thought. As a result, though the vast majority of Bermudians did manage to fly to safety from the territorial airport, nearly two thousand were still waiting in line, trying to book a flight, or driving pell-mell towards the airport when the winds along the runway became too powerful for aircraft to safely take off, trapping these late would-be evacuees on the islands, directly in the path of Igor. Along with these were over a thousand Bermudians who, blind to Igor's immensely greater danger as compared to Fabian seven years earlier, foolishly chose to stay at home and weather the storm there. These 3,104 Bermudians who, whether by choice or chance, had not yet left by the time the last flight out thundered down the airport's longest runway would be the ones to take Igor's brunt full force, along with a handful of scientists hunkering down in their bunkers and fully ready to give up their lives in order to document all of Igor's characteristics.
This motley group, scattered throughout the island chain, watched in dread as Igor, now an annular hurricane, rapidly bounced back from its temporary low and quickly reattained sustained winds exceeding 277 kph (172 mph), and then roared directly over Bermuda. The scientists were likely the safest of all those on Bermuda when Igor struck, sheltered as they were, but even for them it was no picnic, as they watched with horror as their instruments documented ever stronger wind speeds, one anemometer at an elevated location reporting a seemingly impossibly-powerful wind gust of 325 kph (202 mph) before it gave way in the face of the mighty winds and was torn from its mounting and blown out into the open Atlantic, never to be seen; the meteorologist in charge of it would later testify that, from the sound of the unearthly shrieking of the winds blowing over the surface of his shelter, he thought that the gust had likely become even stronger, reaching its peak a second or two after the anemometer was destroyed.
Unsurprisingly, though sadly, only 836 of the 3,104 who were on the islands when Igor struck survived, the rest all being killed by the immense winds, the massive storm surge, which lasted through two consecutive high tides and peaked at nearly 15 meters (49 feet), or the torrential rainfall, totalling over 2.1 meters (7 feet) in places. Nearly everything on Bermuda was destroyed, and the shellshocked survivors, as well as those who returned after Igor passed - who were nowhere near all those who had fled the storm, and may not even have been a majority of the evacuees - had to rebuild from virtually nothing. Though the work was estimated to take several years before Bermuda was even close to where it had been before, they had made some quite respectable progress by the end of the year.
Then came Arlene, another seemingly impossible storm, spawned on New Year's Day from the second of a pair of tropical waves, the first of which had become Hurricane Gamma, the last tropical cyclone of 2010, still going strong when Arlene formed, and fortunately going nowhere near land. Arlene, however, would not be as kind as Gamma had been. Instead of skirting Bermuda far to the west and only making its presence known by a few high waves coming from that direction, Arlene recurved earlier, and Bermuda once again found itself in the path of a storm which, while thankfully nowhere even close to as fearsome as Igor, was still nevertheless quite a dangerous hurricane in its own right. Premier Brown, who had planned to retire in October 2010 but decided in the wake of Igor that it would be inexcusable to abandon his people to a new, untested leader in their time of need, and was hence staying on for the duration of the crisis or until he became to old to effectively govern, whichever came first, now faced a dilemma. The forecasters at the American National Hurricane Center were unanimous in insisting that Arlene would inevitably fall victim to the colder ocean waters of January, weaken and dissipate, but he also had the example of Igor, a case of an evacuation started too late due to people being lulled by a false reprieve into staying in the face of what turned out to be a horrifically powerful storm, resulting in disaster. Faced with Arlene steadfastly continuing to not only not weaken, but in fact strengthen, and seeing the Bermuda Weather Service reluctantly issue a hurricane warning for the island cluster as a result, he finally gave the order on the fourth of January:
"Evacuate. NOW."
Although he feared the possibility of the other parties in Parliament excoriating him for being paranoid and jumping at what might well turn out to be a paper tiger, with a loud bark but no bite, they did nothing of the sort. Instead, vividly remembering the disastrous results of the slow and late evacuation preceding Igor, they unanimously applauded his decision, and the Bermudian population, themselves with Igor strong in their memories and their fears of a recurrence foremost in their minds, immediately heeded their Premier, evacuating once again through the hastily-rebuilt airport, but this time far faster and sooner than they had three and a half months before, despite facing a much weaker and smaller storm than they had then...
