Hi, just saw
this thread regarding the discory of a viking trade outpost on Baffin Island from the 14th century. Had this emerged earlier, would it have had any effecton the TL ? Or was the possibility of something like this accounted for and I missed it ?
For my own part, possibly quite arbitrarily, I'm inclined to dismiss the relevance of the discovery to this Timeline. I'd count it as a hypothetical missed opportunity.
The interactions describe are consistently between the Norse and the Dorset culture. The Dorsets are the group that the emerging Thule displaced and wiped out. The case for Thule/Norse trade is a lot less substantial.
So, why would that be? In part, I would suggest timing. These contacts and the Baffin outpost were most likely in the earlier days of the Greenland colony, the first couple of hundred years, when the Greenlanders still possessed ships that could travel across open seas for a few hundred miles.
Greenland and Iceland lacked forests for good ship timber. There had been some possibility of good Timber in L'anse la Meadows (sic?) but that colony failed. Seagoing ships had a limited life span, and when those ships finally sank or fell apart or were lost, then Greenland and Iceland were both dependent on foreign ships from places like Norway, Denmark, England, Portugal, the Basques or the Hanseatic League.
Another part of it might simply be economics. What exactly did the Dorset have to trade that the Norse would want? The Dorset were arctic hunter/gatherers. They weren't going to be coming up with trade goods that the Norse would consider making the trip for. Apart from food surpluses, they weren't producing anything that the Vikings would cross the sea to get at.
My best guess is that there was some effort to plant a colony along the lines of the Greenland west or middle settlements, it just didn't take, and the Norse were forced to do subsistence trading with the Dorset - ie, buying food, until they gave up the place as a bad job. I certainly don't see any deeper foundation - ie, a source of raw materials/gold/gems uniquely valuable plant or animal products, not available in Greenland.
You might have had a camp of convenience - a really good spot for killing or butchering walrus or whales. Or perhaps a prospective site for digging up and smelting bog iron (not available in Greenland mostly). But the value of the place simply wouldn't justify the economics of a long term investment.
Even assuming some enduring local relationship, the displacement of the Dorset by the Thule probably ended that. Local relationships are delicate. Supposing a new bunch of Skraelings show up that drive off, kill off, or otherwise wreck the bunch that you are dealing with? Odds of dealing with the new bunch are much worse. They're aggressive and they've killed off people you considered friends. Their language is different. Whatever pidgin or sign language you've worked out for the Dorset aren't necessarily working.
So essentially, the same sorts of factors that lead to the failure of the Baffin 'settlement' are still at work here.
Things might have been different if the Agricultural Thule had impinged on the Norse. But then again, location is everything. One of the original centers of Thule Agriculture was on the west coast of Baffin. But the Thule settlement was on the opposite side of the Island, across some extremely rugged and impassable terrain, in a place where Agriculture would spread only slowly, and where the hunter/gatherer populations were either holding on persistently, or where they were being displaced to.
So the first couple of waves of Thule - the hunter/gatherers who displace the dorset, and the hunter/gatherers being displaced by agriculture are the types who don't do much good.
At best, the Baffin Island settlement contributes to Thule folklore another scattering of tales of moss faced giants, which will eventually intrigue someone like Grandfather to go looking.
I think that Shevek's analysis is pretty much dead on.
It's arguable that ITTL there's a missed opportunity here, and I can imagine that the Alt Historians living in this timeline have lines of speculation where the Norse Baffin colony makes contact with the right sort of Thule, perhaps agricultural Thule who have heard enough rumours or picked up enough artifacts that they went looking - found them - and provided enough genuine trade for the Norse to persist. Then you get an earlier, possibly more equitable, definitely different Norse interchange, European discovery, etc. Alas, it didn't happen here.
Or possibly, when its all done with here, someone may want to spin off their own timeline from this with that as a POD. If that's on the agenda, I'm okay.