Lands of Ice and Mice: An Alternate History of the Thule

[DG Valdron]

The Labrador Thule simply don't make it far enough down the coastline to get to Newfoundland, and they don't have the same deep sea tradition, or the same need for deep sea whaling, that the East Coast Greenland Thule do. Newfoundland remains the land of Beothuk.

My reference to Labrador is actually a generalized reference to the northern part of the Labrador/Quebec peninsula, which in our time was settled by the Inuit. In this Timeline, the Thule have pushed further south, displacing or wiping out the Innu from much of their range and pushing into Cree territory. But it is hardly a rout and the Cree retain much of their territory..

 

[DG Valdron]

Roseroot and the Norse/Thule Interchange

Among the Thule, Roseroot was one of the three primary root crops underpinning Thule Agriculture. But with the domestication of Roseroot as a food crop, a second variety diverged. This was ‘medicinal roseroot’, more difficult to cultivate, but far more potent as a euphoric. Under the guidance of Shamans, medicinal roseroot was cultivated as a ceremonial and mystical plant.
In mainstream Thule culture, there was very little concept of cash crops. Most crops were based on concepts of subsistence agriculture. Specialty crops, like medicinal roseroot saw limited cultivation for a fairly narrow demand.
This changed dramatically with Norse contact. The complexities of existence and trading with the Norse and various interloper groups in South Greenland produced a much higher than ordinary need for medicinal roseroot. A mystical plant, it was often cultivated for new ventures and was a staple cultivar for colonizing expeditions. When the Thule reached Iceland, medicinal Roseroot became a potent force of change.

1515 - First landings. Roseroot is introduced to the Norse as part of greeting ceremonies. Roseroot figures prominently in ceremonial greetings and exchanges between Norse and Thule groups.

1515 - Spring. The first Thule crops are planted, including the first Roseroot.

1517 - Roseroot is mentioned as one of the Thule plants that the Althing considers forbidding. No decisions are made.

1517 - First local harvests of Roseroot. Widespread Norse interest in Roseroot. Directions from Lords emphasize roseroot as a collection item for tax/tithing from Thule landings. Some evidence of increased roseroot plantings among Thule.


1518 - First mentions of roseroot outside of Iceland, by a Hanseatic merchant, Werner Grotious, referring to a ‘marvellous substance’ farmed by the Norse of Iceland and speculating about possibilities of trade.

1520 - Olaf Funke a Copenhagen trader procures as part of his trade cargo a quantity of dried Roseroot, which proves immediately popular on sale.

1521 - Both Danish and Hanseatic traders seek Roseroot as a trade good. The Hanseatic trading ship sails along the Icelandic coast, seeking quantities of Roseroot to buy from the Norse. First reference to the Thule by Hanseatic merchants. All purchasing is done through the Norse.

1525 - The Icelandic Althing rules that all Thule tithes are to be paid in Roseroot. Evidence of widespread cultivation by Thule, as well as some cultivation by Norse. The plant does not prosper in Norse regions however, despite continuing adoption of Thule techniques. The Norse are middle men controlling the trade between Thule producers and Danish and Hanseatic merchants.

1526 - The demand in Europe exceeds the Icelandic production of Roseroot. Werner Grotious writes of the possibility of obtaining seeds of the ‘marvellous plant’ and growing it in Germany. Cultivation efforts are made, initially by Germans and then by Danes, but they are unsuccessful.

1529 - Hanseatic merchants, concluding that special skills are needed to cultivate the substance, persuade a small group of Thule to come with them to Germany to grow Roseroot. This is motivated in part by increasing restrictions on their Icelandic trade. The effort fails, most of the Thule are dead of diseases within three years. Norse/Thule relations in Iceland at this time are very poor. Thule bondsmen in Norse communities have a growing reputation for thievery and running away to the Tundra. Thule opinions of Norse are also low. Tax and tithe avoidance is high. Local conflicts turn violent.

1530 - Responding to a second attempt by Hanseatic merchants to bring another group of Thule to Germany to grow Roseroot. Danish and Norwegian merchants import their own groups of Thule, some of them fresh from landings the winter before. Most of these attempts fail, with the exception of a small mission outside of the Norwegian port of Trondheim. The Iceland Norse protest these departures, and attempt to outlaw contact between Thule and traders. Local tithes and taxes on Roseroot increase significantly, as does areas of dedicated production. Roseroot is almost the sole commodity that the Norse take in trade from the Thule, and has evolved to a cash crop. Roseroot is consumed as far away as Paris as a valued euphoric.

1532 - Most of the Danish efforts have failed badly. A sense of desperation pervades the effort, as rumours abound that Hanseatic merchants have succeeded in growing it in Germany. Despite more Thule brought in from Iceland, over Norse protests, the plants fair poorly and the Thule seem prone to illness. One of the surviving Shamans expresses the view that the climate is not right, and that Roseroot would grow in conditions more like Iceland.

1533 - Danish Traders venture to Greenland, trading for quantities of roseroot. Most of the commodity, however is food roseroot, rather than the more potent medicinal varieties. The returning cargo is considered a fiasco. And no further efforts to reach Greenland will be made until 1540.

1534 - First records of Roseroot purchases from Trondheim by Danish merchants.

1536 - Kalmar Union dissolves. The remaining members of the union are reconstituted as the Kingdom of Denmark and Norway. The Danish-Norwegian Trading Company is formed to farm roseroot in Norway for Danish traders. The company is initially jointly owned by merchants from Trondheim and Copenhagen, it begins an ambitious campaign of expansion. Almost a hundred Thule are brought over from Iceland, and large tracts of land are purchased and requisitioned outside Trondheim, primarily in Jemtland and Herjedalen. To maximize production, large numbers of Sammi and Norwegian are hired to work under the guidance of Thule. Ambitious visions of marketing vast quantities of roseroot to Europe inspire a speculative bubble.

1538 - Roseroot production remains distressingly low, the majority of croplands have yet to come on line. The Thule, despite protests, eschew European food as poisonous and insist on devoting land to their own crops, and engaging in mound building. Very few of the immigrants are experienced Shaman’s however, and while there is some innate skill with Thule agriculture most efforts are far from efficient. The bubble bursts, and many investors lose their shirts. The company is refloated, but this time as an exclusively Danish owned concern, the Norwegian investors being either driven out or reduced to minor roles.

1539 - The expansions of 1536 finally pays off and a substantial roseroot crop is harvested, the first of three ‘great harvests.’ Still well below expectations, due to the use of much land for local food production of mixed Thule and European crops and the relative scarcity of Shamanic guides, the harvest produces a cash windfall. Plans are immediately put in place to expand production once again, and this time a royal guarantee is obtained, with the monarchy as an investor. Over the next three years, hundreds of Thule are recruited from Iceland and Greenland. More land is set to Roseroot. With license from the King, local farmholders are encouraged to plant their own Roseroot crops and adopt Thule methods. Thule freehold farms are established, and the Company moves away from the expensive plantation based model. A second speculative bubble begins to form.

1544 - Adverse conditions lead to a production decline, which in turn leads to a second bust of a speculative bubble. In the aftermath, the Crown assumes control as the dominant partner in the Danish Norwegian Trading Company.

1546 - The company is granted a royal monopoly on the roseroot trade, both from Norway and Iceland. Hanseatic merchants continue to purchase in Iceland, but are assessed special taxes for any trading in Iceland. This is the beginning of mercantilist policies to drive any other traders but Danes out of Iceland.

1550 - By this time, Roseroot cultivation is widespread in the districts of Trondheim and the provinces of Jemtland and Herjedalen, as a cash crop in many farms and freeholds. The Thule population is mostly scattered among Sammi and Norwegians. Most land remains devoted to subsistence cultivation, and some Thule crops, particularly sweetvetch, claytonia, kvan and bistort are widely cultivated alongside European crops. Other Thule crops including berries are ignored or avoided for various reasons. Ptarmigan is relatively widespread. But Caribou or Reindeer are not popular, and the most common domesticates remain European sheep and cattle. Thule techniques, particularly mound building and stone cover have spread as being part of the requirements of successful roseroot planting, but are generalizing to wider use.

1564 - Sweden invades the provinces of Jemtland and Herjedalen and attempts to take Trondheim. This is in part an attempt to strike at a source of revenue for the Danish monarch. A substantial army is sent, numbering over a thousand, most of them Finnish peasants. To sustain the army the Swedes impose heavy taxes and confiscations on the Norwegian, Thule and Sammi peasants. They wear out their welcome fast.

1566 - the Swedish forces are driven out by a combination of local resistance and an indigenous Trondheim militia. However, by this time, the Swedish commander, triggered by the interest of Lapp and Finn conscripts, has become enamoured of the strange new vegetables he has discovered which seem to grow in the coldest, most adverse conditions. He will write several letters to John III, the former Duke of Finland upon his accession to the throne....
　
　
　

 

[Falecius]

I suppose that disease should hit the Thule in Norway quite hard. And probably, on time, in Iceland too.
Some outbreak of pneumonia among local Norse would happen too, maybe, but the balance is going to be massively skewed against he Thule.

 

[eschaton]

Let me just say, for the record, I don't think the Thule will be hit by Eurasian diseases anywhere near as badly as Mesoamerica or the Incas were. Let me explain.

The standard model for why the Americas (and Australia) suffered from Eurasian plagues so greatly was because those populations evolved with no immuno-resistence to Eurasian diseases, and had no ability to fight them off. There are some wrinkles in this hypothesis however.

For one, consider the Navajo. When they first came into contact with the Spanish, there were only around 4,000 of them. There are now well over 300,000, making them by far the most populous tribe north of the Rio Grande. More oddly, their population began recovering well before other American tribes, in the mid 19th century - as soon as the U.S. stopped interring them in labor camps. At the same time, the nearby Pueblo tribes, who were agricultural for much longer, didn't stop losing population until the 20th century with the rise of modern sanitation and antibiotics. What is the difference between the Navajo and the Pueblo? Only two things. The Navajo picked up sheep herding early. Two, the Navajo spoke a Na-Dene language, unlike their neighbors, being recent migrants from subarctic Canada. Indeed, the Navajo are the only Na-Dene group which became agricultural. Recent studies have proved that Na-Dene are descendents of a "second wave" of migrants into the Americas, with linguistic links to a Siberian group called the Ket. Navajo genes have not been studied in detail (due to American Indians being suspicious of genetic testing), but Canadian Athabaskans have been studied, and they are genetically very different from other Amerinds, being a hybrid of "first wavers" and something else.

Secondly, look Polynesians versus Papuans. Polynesians are a Eurasian people who went on a colonization spree across the Pacific Ocean within the last 2,000 years. They left their homelands with a full agricultural package, along with domesticated dogs, pigs, and chickens. Despite this, they tended to die in large numbers when they met Europeans. In contrast, Papuans were for the most part isolated from Eurasia. They had some contact with Austronesians (who brought in pigs), and some historical Indonesian empires touched the extreme west of New Guinea. But some highland tribes appear to have had no outside contact until the 20th century. Despite this, they didn't sicken upon contact with Europeans. Indeed, the sheer linguistic diversity of the New Guinea highlands strongly argues there was no demographic collapse and recovery within the last few thousand years. Instead it seems like the original neolithic populations basically all survived.

What this suggests to me is that it's not about being exposed to Eurasian diseases, it's about two things: Access to agriculture, and genetic diversity. Despite being agricultural, both Amerinds and Polynesians came from very small, inbred groups initially, and thus had low immunodiversity, and little ability to fend off major plagues. In contrast Papuans (and to a lesser extent, the Navajo) had a more mixed genetic background, thus were not hurt by Eurasian diseases as badly.

What does this mean for the Thule? Eskimo-Aleuts IOTL are clear genetic descendents of a "third wave" from Siberia, but also took in some (10% or so) genetic component from the second-wave peoples who formerly occupied their territory. ITTL, they probably have a bit more second-wave ancestry, along with some actual Amerind, and more recently a sprinkling of Siberian and Norse DNA working its way through trade networks. As a result, they will clearly be more genetically diverse than groups to the south. In addition, they are a civilized area with an east-to-west axis, meaning their entire realm is one huge disease reservoir, meaning instead of plagues just burning through, they travel east, mutate, travel west, mutate again, etc. Even though they haven't been agricultural all that long, this should be enough to build up some resistance.

I could see plagues taking as much as 50% out of the Thule population. But after that, I'd expect a quick recovery. And it's entirely possible the population crash could be far less.

 

[Falecius]

Let me just say, for the record, I don't think the Thule will be hit by Eurasian diseases anywhere near as badly as Mesoamerica or the Incas were. Let me explain.

The standard model for why the Americas (and Australia) suffered from Eurasian plagues so greatly was because those populations evolved with no immuno-resistence to Eurasian diseases, and had no ability to fight them off. There are some wrinkles in this hypothesis however.

For one, consider the Navajo. When they first came into contact with the Spanish, there were only around 4,000 of them. There are now well over 300,000, making them by far the most populous tribe north of the Rio Grande. More oddly, their population began recovering well before other American tribes, in the mid 19th century - as soon as the U.S. stopped interring them in labor camps. At the same time, the nearby Pueblo tribes, who were agricultural for much longer, didn't stop losing population until the 20th century with the rise of modern sanitation and antibiotics. What is the difference between the Navajo and the Pueblo? Only two things. The Navajo picked up sheep herding early. Two, the Navajo spoke a Na-Dene language, unlike their neighbors, being recent migrants from subarctic Canada. Indeed, the Navajo are the only Na-Dene group which became agricultural. Recent studies have proved that Na-Dene are descendents of a "second wave" of migrants into the Americas, with linguistic links to a Siberian group called the Ket. Navajo genes have not been studied in detail (due to American Indians being suspicious of genetic testing), but Canadian Athabaskans have been studied, and they are genetically very different from other Amerinds, being a hybrid of "first wavers" and something else.

Secondly, look Polynesians versus Papuans. Polynesians are a Eurasian people who went on a colonization spree across the Pacific Ocean within the last 2,000 years. They left their homelands with a full agricultural package, along with domesticated dogs, pigs, and chickens. Despite this, they tended to die in large numbers when they met Europeans. In contrast, Papuans were for the most part isolated from Eurasia. They had some contact with Austronesians (who brought in pigs), and some historical Indonesian empires touched the extreme west of New Guinea. But some highland tribes appear to have had no outside contact until the 20th century. Despite this, they didn't sicken upon contact with Europeans. Indeed, the sheer linguistic diversity of the New Guinea highlands strongly argues there was no demographic collapse and recovery within the last few thousand years. Instead it seems like the original neolithic populations basically all survived.

What this suggests to me is that it's not about being exposed to Eurasian diseases, it's about two things: Access to agriculture, and genetic diversity. Despite being agricultural, both Amerinds and Polynesians came from very small, inbred groups initially, and thus had low immunodiversity, and little ability to fend off major plagues. In contrast Papuans (and to a lesser extent, the Navajo) had a more mixed genetic background, thus were not hurt by Eurasian diseases as badly.

What does this mean for the Thule? Eskimo-Aleuts IOTL are clear genetic descendents of a "third wave" from Siberia, but also took in some (10% or so) genetic component from the second-wave peoples who formerly occupied their territory. ITTL, they probably have a bit more second-wave ancestry, along with some actual Amerind, and more recently a sprinkling of Siberian and Norse DNA working its way through trade networks. As a result, they will clearly be more genetically diverse than groups to the south. In addition, they are a civilized area with an east-to-west axis, meaning their entire realm is one huge disease reservoir, meaning instead of plagues just burning through, they travel east, mutate, travel west, mutate again, etc. Even though they haven't been agricultural all that long, this should be enough to build up some resistance.

I could see plagues taking as much as 50% out of the Thule population. But after that, I'd expect a quick recovery. And it's entirely possible the population crash could be far less.

Do we have any disease mortaly ratre data about OL Inuit? I'd say TTL's death rate might be less than it. However, even assuming the numbers DValdron gave us (that I still think are very low; my own estimates qould be somewhere between twice and three times his numbers) a the lowest point of the demographic curve would be well above anything the same lands ever had OTL.

 

[eschaton]

Do we have any disease mortaly ratre data about OL Inuit? I'd say TTL's death rate might be less than it. However, even assuming the numbers DValdron gave us (that I still think are very low; my own estimates qould be somewhere between twice and three times his numbers) a the lowest point of the demographic curve would be well above anything the same lands ever had OTL.

Apparently it varied dramatically from area to area. In the Mackenzie Delta, the Inuit population declined from 2,000 to 130 following the introduction of European plagues and alcohol. Labrador supposedly had declines nearly as steep, although I cannot find exact numbers. 90%+ mortality is pretty normal for hunter-gatherer peoples, however. The point I was making is IOTL, only the Amerinds and Polynesians were agricultural peoples who suffered dramatically from Eurasian plagues upon contact.

 

[Falecius]

Apparently it varied dramatically from area to area. In the Mackenzie Delta, the Inuit population declined from 2,000 to 130 following the introduction of European plagues and alcohol. Labrador supposedly had declines nearly as steep, although I cannot find exact numbers. 90%+ mortality is pretty normal for hunter-gatherer peoples, however. The point I was making is IOTL, only the Amerinds and Polynesians were agricultural peoples who suffered dramatically from Eurasian plagues upon contact.

Well, except the Papuans, they were the only agricultural peoples without a long history of contact with the Eurasian disease pool.

 

[DG Valdron]

Well, the Siberian peoples found the introduction of Russian diseases like Smallpox pretty devastating, no question.

But there are other factors. My understanding is that the epidemics were actually four diseases which in many areas struck all at once, magnifying their effects upon devastated populations. This may be the case for the Thule. Or there may be 'breathing periods' between the epidemics, which might avoid prospects of social collapse.

 

[eschaton]

Well, except the Papuans, they were the only agricultural peoples without a long history of contact with the Eurasian disease pool.

You could argue that agricultural Sub-Saharan Africans (at least west Africans) didn't really have steady contact with Eurasia until the rise of the Islamic trans-Saharan slave trade. Certainly there were some very slow exchanges going on between Arabia and the Horn of Africa, Horners and East Africans, and east Africans and proto-Bantu, but it was a long game of telephone not too different from what Siberians dealt with. Yet Siberians (and later, hunter-gatherer San) died of plagues, and the Bantu did not.

 

[Falecius]

You could argue that agricultural Sub-Saharan Africans (at least west Africans) didn't really have steady contact with Eurasia until the rise of the Islamic trans-Saharan slave trade. Certainly there were some very slow exchanges going on between Arabia and the Horn of Africa, Horners and East Africans, and east Africans and proto-Bantu, but it was a long game of telephone not too different from what Siberians dealt with. Yet Siberians (and later, hunter-gatherer San) died of plagues, and the Bantu did not.

Trans-saharan trade routes were active from long before Islam. The Roman mint in Carthage used gold of Sub-saharan origin IIRC, for example. It is true, however, that Islamic trade was a huge boost.
And you are right in the comparison with Siberia.

 

[DG Valdron]

One factor of hunter-gatherer societies that makes them particularly vulnerable to epidemics may be lifestyle. These societies usually lack ongoing surpluses or accumulations they're 'take it as and where you need it' or 'just in time'.

They're dependent usually on moving through hunting and gathering areas on a seasonal basis. The resources that they need are not all in one place. They'll fish at one location during spawning, they'll hunt at another location and another time when the migration comes through, there's the places to hole up for winter and rabbit trapping, etc.

Finally, these societies are usually dependent on individual efforts and divisions of labour. Pull components out of that, and you may not have enough people or any people doing critical jobs, and the group risks falling apart.

A really bad pandemic passes through, people get sick. They're too sick to move through their resource area.... they starve. They have no accumulated surplus to tide them over while they recover... they starve. They lose the best hunters, or the most knowedgable gatherer they starve.

There are more factors - because they're generally a transient population, its not just about exhausting the resources in their area. Unable to move, they're essentially living in proximity to their own wastes. So there's a lot more risk of cross contaminations, dysintery, etc.

Throw cross contaminations like that in with borderline starvation and other shortages and the mortality rate goes up. People who might have recovered in other circumstances continue to sicken and die. They're impaired for a longer period and much more vulnerable to other epidemics or disruptions.

Essentially, hunter/gatherer lifestyles are very dependent on a multitude of factors that, when they take a hit, can result in highly exaggerated mortality rates.

 

[Falecius]

Uhm, that's interesting. I wonder if there's any record about the impact plagues had, if any, on the demographics of the European Arctic. Did the Sami show any significant vulnerability?

 

[B_Munro]

You could argue that agricultural Sub-Saharan Africans (at least west Africans) didn't really have steady contact with Eurasia until the rise of the Islamic trans-Saharan slave trade. Certainly there were some very slow exchanges going on between Arabia and the Horn of Africa, Horners and East Africans, and east Africans and proto-Bantu, but it was a long game of telephone not too different from what Siberians dealt with. Yet Siberians (and later, hunter-gatherer San) died of plagues, and the Bantu did not.

In any event, the sub Saharan disease pool has always been plenty rich enough without any Eurasian inputs...

Bruce

 

[Falecius]

In any event, the sub Saharan disease pool has always been plenty rich enough without any Eurasian inputs...

Bruce

True, but so was the European one before Yersinia Pestis stepped in, too.

 

[Hobelhouse]

I like how the adoption of roseroot is a complete clusterfuck complete with speculative bubbles rather than a steady progression. Feels very realistic.

 

[twovultures]

What this suggests to me is that it's not about being exposed to Eurasian diseases, it's about two things: Access to agriculture, and genetic diversity. Despite being agricultural, both Amerinds and Polynesians came from very small, inbred groups initially, and thus had low immunodiversity, and little ability to fend off major plagues.

Genetic diversity may have helped some Native Americans IOTL. Tribes that merged or accepted refugees/adoptees from other tribes were more likely to survive and recover from diseases than tribes that didn't.

I like how the adoption of roseroot is a complete clusterfuck complete with speculative bubbles rather than a steady progression. Feels very realistic.

The economic effects of Roseroot are definitely interesting. I like how it's playing into the existing historical political/economic relationships among the northern European powers.

 

[DG Valdron]

Thanks. That's life. The world proceeds by way of clusterfucks. If you ever have time, do a bit of research on the history of personal computers. We remember the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, but its absolutely terrifying the number of people and the number of brilliant ideas that jumped in and lost their shirts. Hell, look at the recent peccadillos of 'Research In Motion' and their blackberry.

Apart from that, I'm fairly pleased to have articulated a coherent model to justify the spread of Thule Agriculture to northern Norway and the subsequent possible migration of some parts of it to the sub-arctic or northern/ boreal portions of Sweden/Finland.

Take that, nay sayers! (I really am that petty and childish)

 

[Sam R.]

Roseroot and the Norse/Thule Interchange
1525 - The Icelandic Althing rules that all Thule tithes are to be paid in Roseroot.

And in their first relationship with the value form, the Thule were killed by disease, enslaved and transported, reduced in status where settled, had their cultural-economic knowledge appropriated, and came under a broad cultural control unlike other segments of the community.

At least their land didn't go this time. This time.

yours,
Sam R.

 

[DG Valdron]

And in their first relationship with the value form, the Thule were killed by disease, enslaved and transported, reduced in status where settled, had their cultural-economic knowledge appropriated, and came under a broad cultural control unlike other segments of the community.

At least their land didn't go this time. This time.

yours,
Sam R.

Well, what do you really expect from a small population trickling steadily into the habitat of a large established population.

On the other hand, it's clear that the Norse of Iceland are steadily losing control as the Thule economy takes shape in the interior.

The Thule travelling to Europe went as willing passengers in support of opportunity, and the ones that made it to Norway established themselves as overseers and skilled persons, and eventually as small freeholders.

The Thule in Norway will be hard pressed to hold on to their cultural identity, being a small number distributed widely among Norwegians and Sammi. There may be little left to them after a few generations, apart from a spray of genetic material and a handful of loan words and local habits, but that's par for the course. The Greenland Norse went the same way.

The first encounters haven't gone half bad at all, and in comparison with the rest of the Colombian experience, have gone spectacularly well for the natives.

We're coming up fast and close to the age of epidemics, so I think it may be time to go back and explore other material: Caribou Riding, Walrus Domestication, Shaman evolution, Siberia, etc. etc.

 

[twovultures]

Walrus Domestication

YES. SO MUCH YES.