Canada Wank (YACW)

[Brasidas]

The OFFICIAL position is that the Louisiana purchase was invalid, and the area needs to be returned to Spain. Of course, everyone can see that Spain isn't going to keep control of the area. The original British idea iTTL is to make the US pay twice for the same land. As the Brits are doing better, they're actually hoping maybe they can keep their hands on chunks of the area (probably de facto first, then de jure). By now, they're pretty sure they can keep all of e.g. OTL's Minnesota, probably Iowa and the Dakotas, and they'd sure LIKE to keep Missouri if they can arrange it. If they could take New Orleans, they'd be ecstatic.

The Brits are already thinking in terms of offering land (or rather having Spain offer land) to veterans of the Spanish and Portuguese armies, and perhaps some of their own men with Spanish wives, say. The war in Europe isn't over, they're not making any statements, but thoughts are rolling around in people's heads.

At the moment, the Brits have NO intent to take over any Spanish territory that's currently under Spanish governance. (They'd rather leave Texas and Florida Spanish for instance, to avoid overstretch.) What happens in the future, well, wait and see.



Did you notice, by the way, that the phrasing on the oath offered the locals was "loyalty to the King". This wording is actually deliberate. WHICH King (British, Spanish, possibly French, heck I suppose even some raja in India), didn't matter so much as that they're abjuring loyalty to the Republican Americans. Demanding loyalty to King George, specifically, when they are nominally going to return the area to Spain doesn't make sense, nor does demanding loyalty to the Spanish king who is likely never to administer the area again. Being vague is good here.

I understand that this is all post-war musings by the British as opposed to a firm draft of a treaty, but where is Tecumseh's confederation fitting in to all of this?

With all of the contribution of the natives here, I'd be thinking of an armed friendly vassal state on the Missippi, south of whatever line could reasonably be held. Unless the Brits can take and hold New Orleans, and they can supply their forces from the south, wouldn't a friendly vassal be a stronger play than an overstretched garrison?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I understand that this is all post-war musings by the British as opposed to a firm draft of a treaty, but where is Tecumseh's confederation fitting in to all of this?

With all of the contribution of the natives here, I'd be thinking of an armed friendly vassal state on the Missippi, south of whatever line could reasonably be held. Unless the Brits can take and hold New Orleans, and they can supply their forces from the south, wouldn't a friendly vassal be a stronger play than an overstretched garrison?

Tecumseh and company are getting the vast bulk of Indiana and Illinois, which they have been pretty instrumental in clearing of US settlement. The northern parts of both territories (especially Illinois) are now (relatively) safe for Indians, and folk have started to return to villages burnt out by the US. In the southern half of especially Indiana, you REALLY don't want to try living as a civilian (Indian OR White) unless you are really near a fort/power base of your side.

They will also have some guaranteed rights in (what will be) officially British territory like Michigan and Wisconsin. Obviously, the more contribution a nation makes to the 'liberation' cause, the more rights they will get. Of course, ultimately a 'traditional' Indian lifestyle isn't going to work, but Tecumseh's Shawnee and Black Hawk's Sauk, along with the allied Miami and Pottawatami are well placed to make a transition into the future keeping and evolving their own identity. This not to say that the transition won't be stressful.

 

[stevep]

I understand that this is all post-war musings by the British as opposed to a firm draft of a treaty, but where is Tecumseh's confederation fitting in to all of this?

With all of the contribution of the natives here, I'd be thinking of an armed friendly vassal state on the Missippi, south of whatever line could reasonably be held. Unless the Brits can take and hold New Orleans, and they can supply their forces from the south, wouldn't a friendly vassal be a stronger play than an overstretched garrison?

Brasidas

As Dathi says the Indians will get territory, or more to the point security in their territory in the area that will technically be under British control. Since as far as I'm aware the US was never willing to accept any independent Indian state they will technically need to be a British protectorate. This will pose potential problems, especially in the longer term as European populations increase. However Britain is posing much less of a threat because Canada's much lower population and the fact its in their interests to have friendly Indian states as a buffer to help deter/defend against any new American attack. Hence they are going to get a lot more room for manouver that if their region comes back under American control.

Steve

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Interlude

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Interlude[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]One thing that resulted the winter campaign was some annoying jokes. The winter of 1813 was particularly cold by local standards, and the whites were mostly used to hiding in their cabins with stoves and fireplaces as much as possible. The Indians, of course, were rather more used to hunting and trapping in the depths of winter, but 0F is cold, very cold, in this part of the country. The Cree and some of the other Indians from the North kept asking 'When is winter going to start?', even in the depths of the coldest weather the locals have ever seen. (-40 F is not at all unusual for them – it's rarer now in the area, but we're still in the Little Ice Age).[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Joke (very rough Celsius equivalents added)[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]60 F (15 C) Americans put on a coat[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]50 F (10 C(English soldiers stop complaining about the blazing summer heat.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]40 F (5 C) Shawnee put on a coat, Cree put on a shirt[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]32 F (0C) Americans shut themselves in for the winter; Tennesseans freeze to death[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]0 F (-20 C) Americans freeze to death, Shawnee wrap themselves up in heavy coats. Cree ask when winter starts[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]-20 F (-30C) Shawnee huddle around any available fire. Cree announce “it's a bit nippy. When's winter coming?”[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]-200 F (-100C) Hell freezes over, even Cree recognize that winter has arrived.[/FONT]

 

[stevep]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Interlude[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]One thing that resulted the winter campaign was some annoying jokes. The winter of 1813 was particularly cold by local standards, and the whites were mostly used to hiding in their cabins with stoves and fireplaces as much as possible. The Indians, of course, were rather more used to hunting and trapping in the depths of winter, but 0F is cold, very cold, in this part of the country. The Cree and some of the other Indians from the North kept asking 'When is winter going to start?', even in the depths of the coldest weather the locals have ever seen. (-40 F is not at all unusual for them – it's rarer now in the area, but we're still in the Little Ice Age).[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Joke (very rough Celsius equivalents added)[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]60 F (15 C) Americans put on a coat[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]50 F (10 C(English soldiers stop complaining about the blazing summer heat.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]40 F (5 C) Shawnee put on a coat, Cree put on a shirt[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]32 F (0C) Americans shut themselves in for the winter; Tennesseans freeze to death[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]0 F (-20 C) Americans freeze to death, Shawnee wrap themselves up in heavy coats. Cree ask when winter starts[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]-20 F (-30C) Shawnee huddle around any available fire. Cree announce “it's a bit nippy. When's winter coming?”[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]-200 F (-100C) Hell freezes over, even Cree recognize that winter has arrived.[/FONT]

Dathi

Like it. Although if the war lasts until 1815/16 I suspect even the Cree will be feeling the weather.

Steve

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Early Winter and Spring campaigns: The West

OK guys, here's a real update!

Early Winter and Spring campaigns: The West



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Missouri and Illinois want help, and need both men and provisions to fight back against the British, and call for help from Kentucky and the Federal Government. Unfortunately for them, the United States is focussing its efforts on regaining the Great Lakes. This is actually not totally unreasonable, as, if the Great Lakes come under American control, the British effort to the west will just wither and die. The message is sent west: 'hang on until we can free up forces for you'. However, this is very cold comfort for the westerners. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Kentucky, while overcommitted in Ohio and southern Illinois, does find about 500 men to help Illinois (originally Illinois and Missouri, but Illinois grabbed them first.) Tennessee also provides a body of some 700 men that they send up the Mississippi in the late winter/early spring. The British forces attack them on the river with a couple of gunboats, forcing the group off the river and making them march the last way on land. The survivors, about 500, arrive in St. Louis, and are a very welcome addition for the defenders, allowing the perimeter forts and city walls to be better manned. The difficulty of even getting the men there, and the emphasis towards the south (anti-Creek and anti-Spanish efforts) means the Tennesseans send no more men north.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Illinois suffers from raids and isolation, but is able to largely protect her farmland (at least in the American Bottom – the floodplain south of St. Louis), and thus can feed her people and militia. Moreover, although they don't really realise it, St.Louis is acting as a shield for them. The British, and even masses of allied Indians just can't project much power that far south, given that St. Louis would lie in their rear. Moreover, they are closer to Kentucky and can get at least occasional resupply of arms and ammunition.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]However, Missouri has bigger problems: the British and their Indian allies have cut off St. Louis from much of the farmland that would support the town. To protect what they DO have, they have to spread their forces out in penny-packets in the small forts and on the city walls. The British forces, on the other hand, can concentrate their push wherever and whenever they want. So they can besiege one perimeter fort, providing enough threat that Howard has to call up his reserves to break the siege – but the reserves marching across open ground can be defeated in detail, at least occasionally. Moreover, the British (mostly Indians) can slip between forts and prevent much planting from happening in the area that is nominally American controlled. Howard spends much of the winter and early spring hoping for relief from the rest of the US. He is very heartened when the Tennesseans arrive – but rather disheartened when he realises that that's all the help he'll get. In particular, there will be no boat loads of food and ammunition pouring up the Mississippi to St. Louis, and with the constant British nibbling at his flanks, he really NEEDS resupply if he's to hold out. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Darroch (the British General), after a long spring of such feints and small piece battles convinces Howard that his people in the city will starve before the US can prevent it, and he should better surrender now, while planting season is still on, and let the crops go in. Howard knows that if the British were to besiege the town, he'd win – as he could concentrate HIS men behind defences and the force multiplier would mean that the British would lose. Unfortunately for him, the British refuse to take the bait, and having good fortifications doesn't provide either ammunition or food, so ultimately Howard surrenders. The planting within his perimeter finally goes ahead (with considerable help from the Missourians outside the perimeter who had already surrendered months ago). All the cannon and most of the firearms are removed to a strong British fort, and people have to decide whether they can bring themselves to swear oaths to the British (either loyalty, for class A treatment or acceptance of and non-interference in British rule for class B treatment), or whether they need to flee south and east to American controlled land. Some of the fleeing American loyalists stop in the American Bottom in Illinois, where they increase the strength and population of that area. (This will increase this rump Illinois's ability to resist further British raids.) Others head further east and south, mostly to Kentucky. Howard goes south too. He means to set up base in Illinois, but the Illinoisans won't have him, due to the acrimony resulting from the Battle of Fort Gourock the previous fall. He continues on to Kentucky. William Clark, his lieutenant governor (of Lewis and Clark fame), stays behind and takes over the governance of the (now British, or is it Spanish?) territory of Missouri.[/FONT]

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

other campaigns early 1814

Early Winter and Spring 1814 (other campaigns)



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The East Coast[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]With the war winding up in Europe, and more resources being available, the number of ships and men that the British have blockading and raiding the East Coast of the US increases. The blockade is extended north to New England, which it hadn't been before, and this heavily cuts into the New England trade, and the American customs income (which used to be the primary source of income for the Federal government.) New England howls loudly that the US is not providing for their defence (that the New Englanders are expected to help defend e.g. New York, and no one helps them). Of course, they are still very leery of letting the US army recruit from their militias, even arresting people to try. All this is as OTL. Later in the summer, during raids in the Chesapeake Bay and south, the RN starts handing out guns and ammunition to blacks who don't want to flee with the British, see below. [another change from OTL][/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Florida, East Coast[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In late February, the decision is made to let the Army and militia from the South East attack south and try to take East Florida. Forces mostly from the Carolinas and Georgia, are to attack St. Augustine again, and forces from Georgia and Tennessee will try to take Pensacola.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]It takes a while to organize the militias and army, but the eastern prong against St. Augustine sets of in late March.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Due to the British blockade, all supplies have to be carried overland or smuggled in small boats along the coast when the RN isn't around (which, since they are starting to push north is a bit more often than it would have been otherwise). The bad supply lines means that the campaign has few cannon and is otherwise badly provisioned. Seminoles (the local Indians) are [iTTL] well armed and [as OTL] harass the invaders, together with armed Negroes [mostly iTTL]. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]On the other hand, the American force this time is far too numerous to be stopped by the Seminoles, and the Spanish garrison at St. Augustine is very small. So, despite the strong fortifications, the US takes St. Augustine in May, after a short siege and a very bloody attack. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US governments (federal and the states concerned) expected an easier time, and expected the invasion force to take all of East Florida. However, the increasing action of the British navy on blockade meant that all supplies had to come overland now, as did the return home of the sick and wounded (who were numerous). Thus the strain of just HOLDING St. Augustine was all the US could do in this theatre, at this point.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]One result of this campaign is that the US is now convinced that the armed Negroes they faced in this campaign were escaped slaves deliberately armed by the British. This is mostly not true, as it was not official intent or policy to arm the free blacks at this point, but a) local agents distributing arms handed them out to anyone who'd fight the US, b) the Seminoles acted as intermediaries – distributing arms to blacks that didn't have them, and c) a few of the 'blacks' WERE Seminoles (as most Indian nations were far less hung up on genetics than the Europeans were. Heck, they'd even adopt whites, for goodness sake! <grin>.)[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Still, the news quickly travels back to the US and newspapers and the government loudly proclaim that “The British are promoting slave rebellions!”. This gets the British authorities mad, and Cockburn and Cochrane, for instance, decide that if they're being blamed for it, they might as well do it. So, during the summer, they DO arm any slaves/ex-slaves who want to stay behind and fight.[/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Pensacola[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Similarly, a Tennessee led expedition attempted to take Pensacola. But they had other problems. The roads were even worse than on the East Coast, they didn't have the leadership of OTL's Andrew Jackson, and the Red Stick Creeks have not been defeated. Thus the force that appears in front of Pensacola in late June is weaker (less numerous, less well supplied, and less well led) than AJ's OTL force. Meanwhile, the news of St. Augustine has galvanized the Spanish governor at Pensacola to accept any and all British and British led help. [OTL the Spanish governor also waffled a bit as to what he'd let the British do. Here, there is a clear state of war between Spain and the US, so he gives the Brits free rein.] The British forces (smallish group of regulars, lots of Red Sticks, numbers of free blacks, and a trickle of escaped slaves) rebuilt and manned fortifications at and around Pensacola, so when the US forces arrived they had to besiege the place. And again, Pensacola could be supplied by sea, while the US forces only had what they could drag over hundreds of miles of hostile country with lousy roads. The Tennesseeans hold out for a month and then give up and head home, leaving hundreds of dead, sick and wounded at Pensacola, and leaving it thoroughly in British/Spanish hands.[/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Creek War[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Georgia, Tennessee and Louisiana continue to send expeditions and raids against the hostile Indians. Unfortunately, they still aren't cooperating with each other, and they still have problems discriminating between friendly and hostile Indians, so the expeditions generate as many hostiles (from previously friendly or neutral Indian groups) as they kill.[/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Great Lakes[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Spring/early summer action on the Great Lakes has already been described.[/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Aftermath of the Battle of Buffalo[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Most of the 4000 British prisoners of war have been exchanged for US prisoners who had been previously taken and stored on the various prison islands. In fact, with the best hospitals on the Canadian side, many of the wounded (from both sides) were moved across, so once the wounded were up and walking again, they were placed on parole.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Steamboats[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The first of the shallow river boats, the Canadian was ready in the fall of 1813, and put into experimental use on the Maumee above the rapids after the Battle of the Maumee was over.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]It ran goods, supplies and men up the Maumee to Fort Wayne easing the supply route there. OTOH, as an experimental first model, it showed some definite faults that needed to be fixed. By spring, the Canadian is rebuilt, and the Golden, the Laurentide and the Frontier are put into service (on the Wabash, 2nd boat on the Maumee, and on the Illinois River respectively). And the Crown and Anchor and the Bras d'Or are under construction for use in the west (on the Illinois and Mississippi).[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Europe[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The slightly larger British army is doing slightly better.[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, sans-serif](Remember, not all the Royalists came to Canada or stayed there. Ever since leaving the lines of Torres Vedras, Wellington's progress has been just a smidgeon faster. And once the army is in France, the Royalists were able to accrete some recruits and a few deserting soldiers of Napoleon, so his progress north was faster. Not mentioned previously because 1) well, OK, I hadn't decided on it and 2) it wasn't affecting North American theatre. )[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif] When the Allied armies from the east reach Paris [OTL] on 11 April they find Wellington had arrived the night before [not OTL]. Totally surrounded, Napoleon surrenders and attempts suicide on the 12th [OTL!]. However, due to the approaching armies from all sides, he has had his doctor replace the vial he carried from Moscow with a fresh one. Thus his suicide attempt is successful. Napoleon dieing of despair as a suicide is a far less inspiring figure (although more romantic in a dark sense) than his OTL exile. Thus there is less political opposition in the immediate wake of the Allied occupation. Also, Wellington being at the gates of Paris at the same time (before, even), the other allies, means that Britain has a better position at the post victory bargaining sessions.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif][Note: I had wanted to avoid the 100 days, as it would be a major distraction for the British (to say the least), but wasn't sure how to do it. Then I discovered that Napoleon made a suicide attempt on April 12, that almost killed him OTL. He had had his physician prepare a vial in Moscow in 1812, so that he could avoid capture, and kept it. OTL, he took that, and possibly the poisons lost some of their strength in the intervening 2 years. ITTL, he makes sure he's got an updated vial sometime in the last month or two as the various allied armies are closing in around him, and the suicide attempt succeeds. Note, too, that having British troops arrive at Paris just before the eastern armies do will give Britain a stronger bargaining stance at the Congress of Vienna. OTL, Wellington fought his last battle at Toulouse in the south AFTER Napoleon's surrender (the next day – word hadn't gotten there yet.)

[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif](following suggested by RPW@Cy, and incorporated)[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]OTL Wellington crossed into France in October of 1813, fought and won the battle of the Nivelle in November and the battles of the Nive and St Pierre outside Bayonne from 9-13 December. OTL, the weather was so foul after this that Soult was able to escape north after St Pierre (leaving a garrison in Bayonne) and fighting didn't resume until the end of February. If in the ATL all these dates are advanced slightly (IIRC a week or two should do) so that the Nive and St Pierre are fought in better weather and much heavier defeats for the French with the result that Wellington is able to bottle Soult's entire army up in Bayonne (it won't be easy, Soult will try to break out, but the foul weather will hinder him too) then Soult should be starved into surrender by the time the weather improves at the end of February. With no remaining French army in southern France, Wellington is able to march straight to Paris. Granted doing it in about six weeks would be a challenge, but presumably the Royalists in his army would spend the winter riding all over southern France encouraging revolts that would help him along - heck, even in OTL Bourdeaux successfully rose for the king in March.
[/FONT]

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

a) Why are the Americans, with all their problems with Britain and the Indians deciding to attack Florida? Especially since the European war is ending as well so both Britain and Spain will be able to commit more forces to any conflict with them.

b) Not sure about Wellington getting that far into France that fast? Napoleon dying either by suicide or possibly in some clash as everything falls apart I can see but the Duke being able to get all the way across France to each Paris before the allied armies get there seems a bit unlikely.

c) With no 100 days the Americans are going to really struggle as there will be less disorder in Europe freeing up more forces, not to mention adding the Spanish openly to their opponents and the larger recruitment of black forces. [Something I was going to play around with in a TL I started on the period once].

Hmmm... Maybe I didn't explain some things as well as I wanted to, and glossed over others.

a) The US has been wanting to take Florida since, well, I don't know, probably 1776! There were several occasions where various attacks on/decisions to attack 'Florida' were made OTL. One decision passed the House, and failed (by a small margin in the Senate). Mobile (in today's Alabama, then in West Florida) was taken by Wilkinson in March 1813. Pensacola was taken by Andrew Jackson in 1814. Many of the 'orders' to avoid provoking the Spanish were carefully written so that the expedition could read between the lines, or so that they couldn't possibly be received in time.

So it REALLY doesn't take much to tip the US into trying to take the Floridas (or bits thereof).

iTTL, we have the additional problem of illiquid currency - the US government has wads of southern bank notes they collected as taxes that can't be spent anywhere but in the state concerned. Why not raise and equip some men and send them south. Even if they have to spend 'real' Tnotes, why, that part of the country doesn't have any 'acceptable' cash to pay taxes in, so Federal spending there can prime the pump.

Furthermore, the Americans are desperate for a victory, and the Spanish are ripe fruit.

As for newly available forces, the Spanish are really in no shape to project force across the Atlantic at this point. And the Brits are already (seemingly) overextended. The US knows how much trouble it is to support thousands of soldiers (even WITHIN your own country), let alone across the Atlantic. I don't think they really quite realize how serious (and capable) Britain is at this point.



b) Wellington didn't get 'that far that fast'. It turns out (as I discovered in the last few days), that the extra French Royalists that stayed in the British army and DIDN'T come to Canada have tipped the tide in a handful of battles. Ever since leaving the lines of Torres Vedras, Wellington's progress has been just a smidgeon faster. And once the army is in France, the Royalists were able to accrete some recruits and a few deserting soldiers of Napoleon, so his progress north was faster. Not mentioned previously because 1) well, OK, I hadn't decided on it and 2) it wasn't affecting North American theatre.

I will admit that previous responses to queries indicated few to no butterflies in Europe, but 1) those replies were intent, not 'canon' and 2) I'm going to retcon them. OK?


c) see a), above. Also, 1) the US (government) keeps thinking they can win a major battle, which will give them a better bargaining chip. and 2) public opinion, especially the newspapers, are absolutely furious (mostly with the British, but partly with the federal government). Anyone who accepted the current British peace demands would be not only turfed out of office ASAP, but possibly tarred and feathered. To sign a peace on British terms now would be political, possibly literal, suicide.

 

[RPW@Cy]

Hmmm... Maybe I didn't explain some things as well as I wanted to, and glossed over others.
As for newly available forces, the Spanish are really in no shape to project force across the Atlantic at this point.

Do they need to? Surely there's a garrison (and arsenal) in Cuba that they can draw on if they have to? Granted, the Americans may not be aware of this.

b) Wellington didn't get 'that far that fast'. It turns out (as I discovered in the last few days), that the extra French Royalists that stayed in the British army and DIDN'T come to Canada have tipped the tide in a handful of battles. Ever since leaving the lines of Torres Vedras, Wellington's progress has been just a smidgeon faster. And once the army is in France, the Royalists were able to accrete some recruits and a few deserting soldiers of Napoleon, so his progress north was faster. Not mentioned previously because 1) well, OK, I hadn't decided on it and 2) it wasn't affecting North American theatre.

Given that Wellington won all his battles OTL, often by crushing margins, it's difficult to see how a few thousand more men could make much difference to be honest.

However, as I'm liking this timeline so much, can I make a suggestion?

OTL Wellington crossed into France in October of 1813, fought and won the battle of the Nivelle in November and the battles of the Nive and St Pierre outside Bayonne from 9-13 December. OTL, the weather was so foul after this that Soult was able to escape north after St Pierre (leaving a garrison in Bayonne) and fighting didn't resume until the end of February. If in the ATL all these dates are advanced slightly (IIRC a week or two should do) so that the Nive and St Pierre are fought in better weather and much heavier defeats for the French with the result that Wellington is able to bottle Soult's entire army up in Bayonne (it won't be easy, Soult will try to break out, but the foul weather will hinder him too) then Soult should be starved into surrender by the time the weather improves at the end of February. With no remaining French army in southern France, Wellington is able to march straight to Paris. Granted doing it in about six weeks would be a challenge, but presumably the Royalists in his army would spend the winter riding all over southern France encouraging revolts that would help him along - heck, even in OTL Bourdeaux successfully rose for the king in March.

c) see a), above. Also, 1) the US (government) keeps thinking they can win a major battle, which will give them a better bargaining chip. and 2) public opinion, especially the newspapers, are absolutely furious (mostly with the British, but partly with the federal government). Anyone who accepted the current British peace demands would be not only turfed out of office ASAP, but possibly tarred and feathered. To sign a peace on British terms now would be political, possibly literal, suicide.

so the American government needs either a big victory or a big defeat to get out of the war intact? Have they reached the point yet where either would be good?...

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Do they need to? Surely there's a garrison (and arsenal) in Cuba that they can draw on if they have to? Granted, the Americans may not be aware of this.

Hmmm... That's a good thought. OTOH, they don't SEEM to have used them OTL, so I'm not sure they'd use them iTTL.

However, as I'm liking this timeline so much,

Thanks. Comments are the currency of this forum. Compliments are the fuel, as it were.

can I make a suggestion?

Please do. I, fortunately, have had some very helpful comments in this timeline, which have improved, expanded and corrected on posts I've made. I am grateful for any suggestions. I can't guarantee I'll use them all, but I've used a number and I think about them all.

OTL Wellington crossed into France in October of 1813, fought and won the battle of the Nivelle in November and the battles of the Nive and St Pierre outside Bayonne from 9-13 December. OTL, the weather was so foul after this that Soult was able to escape north after St Pierre (leaving a garrison in Bayonne) and fighting didn't resume until the end of February. If in the ATL all these dates are advanced slightly (IIRC a week or two should do) so that the Nive and St Pierre are fought in better weather and much heavier defeats for the French with the result that Wellington is able to bottle Soult's entire army up in Bayonne (it won't be easy, Soult will try to break out, but the foul weather will hinder him too) then Soult should be starved into surrender by the time the weather improves at the end of February. With no remaining French army in southern France, Wellington is able to march straight to Paris. Granted doing it in about six weeks would be a challenge, but presumably the Royalists in his army would spend the winter riding all over southern France encouraging revolts that would help him along - heck, even in OTL Bourdeaux successfully rose for the king in March.

Ooo, good!! Thanks. Adopted verbatim (added retcons are in green, if you go back to that post, you'll see it's there now). Thanks. Much better to have plausible details than just handwaving, but it didn't seem worth my while to do a lot of detailed reading on the European war (I'm having enough problem keeping up with just North America!)

so the American government needs either a big victory or a big defeat to get out of the war intact? Have they reached the point yet where either would be good?...

Soon....

 

[stevep]

Hmmm... That's a good thought. OTOH, they don't SEEM to have used them OTL, so I'm not sure they'd use them iTTL.

Dathi

That might be because they didn't think they could affect anything in time. Given that the US are really struggling and the British navy especially are more prominent and the American attack has basically stalled I suspect the Spanish on Cuba might be more pro-active this turn.

Also OTL Wellington rejected the use of Spanish troops in France as they had a tendency, understandably possibly given what the French have done, to behave badly and alienate the local population. This means that once any threat from France has gone, i.e. once Wellington crosses the border, or possibly from when Soult's army is forced to surrender, the Spanish army is fairly underemployed. [Might even have some political manoeuvring as one factor or another wants to get potential opponents out of the way].

The down side of this is I'm not sure Wellington would have used many French royalist elements during the peninsula war. Even if their behaving impeccably I suspect a lot of the Spanish would mistrust them and very likely there would be clashes and incidents. [They had enough problems at times accepting the heretical British].

Steve

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Peace talks, Mark 2

Peace talks, Mark 2



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The second round of peace talks start on 8 July 1814 in Ghent [a month earlier than OTL]. Let's compare the status at the time each round commenced.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By March 1814, when the first round of peace talks began, the US had some sold grounds for optimism:[/FONT]

• [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]there are 3 ship yards abuilding, one on each of the lakes. The US can at least HOPE to regain control of all three lakes, which makes her less interested in massive concessions. If she can get a couple of good blows in in the spring..... Actually, if the US can control EITHER Lake Ontario or Lake Erie, then the British advance in the west will wither for lack of supply. [/FONT]
• [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Similarly, the financial crisis has come and been dealt with (even if not well). Recruiting efforts and results are up. [/FONT]
• [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]There was a decisive (defensive) land victory at Buffalo during the winter. While raiding on the Western frontier has been severe, St. Louis and the 'American bottom' (Mississippi valley in Illinois south of St. Louis) are holding out. [/FONT]
• [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]War still on in Europe, although it's pretty obvious that it will be over soon.[/FONT]
• [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US is about to attack Florida, which they expect to take in its entirety, which should give them good bargaining positions later in the talks. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]So the US thought they could easily take a hard line in the talks and reasonably expect some major British concessions, which they weren't prepared to give. Thus the US walked away from the talks until their position was better [/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By the start of July, when the second round starts, things are not looking so good for the US.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The naval battle on Lake Ontario has happened with the 'USS Victory' sunk and the frigates fleeing back to port, seriously damaged. Napoleon is dead, British veterans are starting to stream across the Atlantic. Spain's a party in the peace talks, and wants her land back. The attack on St. Augustine, while a success, was (and remains) costly, and the attack on Pensacola was a failure. And St. Louis has surrendered.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]On the other hand, the yellow journalism reporting of Britain's behaviour e.g. fomenting slave revolts (a false accusation until the Brits decided to turn it into reality), mean that the US couldn't accept a 'defeat' at the negotiating table – even if they could find one (and decide on its shape). And the raising of new troops and building of new roads and bases seems to be going well, so the US hasn't given up all hope yet. [/FONT]


As for the theoretically newly available Royalist forces, the Spanish are really in no shape to project force across the Atlantic at this point. And the Brits are already (seemingly) overextended. The US knows how much trouble it is to support thousands of soldiers (even WITHIN your own country), let alone across the Atlantic. They don't really quite realize how serious (and capable) Britain is at this point. Also, 1) the US (government) keeps thinking they can win a major battle, which will give them a better bargaining chip, and 2) public opinion, especially the newspapers, are absolutely furious (mostly with the British, but partly with the federal government). Anyone who accepted the current British peace demands would be not only turfed out of office ASAP, but possibly tarred and feathered. To sign a peace on British terms now would be political, possibly literal, suicide.


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]So, when negotiations do begin again in Ghent, they don't move forward very fast. The Americans are holding out for something they can use to show the public back home that the peace is more than abject surrender, and the British don't see why they should give up an inch of land they hold. On the other hand, neither side gives up in disgust like last time, so both sides continue to talk off and on, and explore some of the minor issues that might eventually be part of a final treaty, but can't make progress of any substance until their instructions from their governments change.[/FONT]

 

[Epimethius]

Bring Wellington over, come on (I'm not actually being serious here, as I don't think the British would send their most able general to the colonies unless the British stood to lose everything, which they don't at this point) but it would be a fun addition to the wank. Brock is good, but Wellington, well Wellington is better!

 

[stevep]

Bring Wellington over, come on (I'm not actually being serious here, as I don't think the British would send their most able general to the colonies unless the British stood to lose everything, which they don't at this point) but it would be a fun addition to the wank. Brock is good, but Wellington, well Wellington is better!

Epimethius

I know your not being serious but its even less likely here than OTL. Wellington refused to go to N American partly because he viewed it as a side issue and the negotiations and manouvering in Europe as far more important for Britain, which in the short and medium term is the case. TTL the American position is pretty dire compared to OTL so can see little point in committing such an important figure would seem pointless.

I'm not sure whether Britain would be unwilling to concede some territory. After more than a generation of war the country wants peace and a reduction in expenditures, and hence taxes. Hence I suspect they would be prepared to make some, possibly fairly extensive territorial concessions. Just that after the US has been so hostile and so totally unsuccessful their probably not willing to concede everything that the US is still demanding. Also that if the US continues to try and fail to expand the war then the position in London will probably harden. Furthermore the more canny politicians in London, if aware of events in New England especially, will be tempted to push to the breaking point as a New England breakaway makes Canada so much more secure.

Steve

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Events in New England, summer/fall 1814

Events in New England, summer/fall 1814



In 1814, with increasing availabilities of British ships, the blockade extends north to New England, for the first time.


Due to the blockade, Nantucket was on the edge of starvation. Admiral Hotham agreed to let them import goods if they declared themselves neutral, which included paying no taxes to US government, surrender warlike stores, and supply British ships. Nantucket agreed and became neutral on 10 May [OTL it was 23 August]. Towns around Cape Cod were assessed 'contributions' e.g. $4000 for Brewster, $1200 for Eastham.


Soon, goods are flowing to Nantucket. The MA government can claim with a straight face, that trade from Nantucket to the mainland is internal, intrastate trade, and isn't due customs. This is such a good deal for Nantucket, that Martha's Vineyard and then Cape Cod want to get in on the act. (The Cape Cod towns in particular would rather earn money than have it extorted!) Boston merchants would LOVE to make the same deal, but they can't get away with it. The British have enough force to plausibly maintain a threat on isolated islands, and even a peninsula, but one of the biggest and best defended cities in the US? Still, they're supplying the goods that the smaller places are trading, and, at the moment, there are no customs duty whatsoever on their trading, so the Boston merchants can still make a good profit.


The rest of New England is jealous. The rest of the US is furious.


Rhode Island is really annoyed that the Boston merchants are making all that money, and they aren't. So, when Admiral Warren approaches Rhode Island, they are ready to listen. They have to agree that no Customs duties or taxes will flow to the US federal government. Ports and ships flying the Pinetree flag will be allowed commerce and freedom from the blockade. Rhode Island debates this, but agrees on 15 June. Both as colony and then state, she was always the maverick of the bunch, so tends to view this as being patriotic to 'The State' (RI), rather than traitorous to 'The (United) States'. Rhode Island is still collecting duties, but they're now flowing to the State government, rather than the US, and being used to upgrade her defences, etc. Nominally, Rhode Island declares force majeur (i.e. 'he held a gun to my head') and that the customs are 'being held in trust' for the US when the war is over, but a) no one really believes that, especially anyone out of state, and b) in the meantime, US federal income has just dropped some more.


Britain was considering invading eastern Maine at this point, [OTL they did so on 5 July], but here, with New England looking like it's about to fall over like dominoes, just makes the same offer to the Mainers that they did to Rhode Island. Maine accepts. (Yes, I know that Maine is not a separate state, but part of Massachusetts. However, they are isolated from the rest of Massachusetts by the British blockade, and know darn well they would have been invaded if they didn't agree. Unlike Rhode Island, they really CAN claim force majeur legitimately.) Still, not having to use those troops for the invasion and occupation duty mean that they are available for use elsewhere.


Similarly, New Hampshire makes similar arrangements for her port towns (mainly Portsmouth NH), in August, so they don't lose trade to Maine.


Connecticut would dearly love to pull the same trick, but can't, as there are too many US federal troops in New York state right up against her border, and the US makes it clear that Connecticut WILL suffer consequences if she tries it. However, quiet unofficial negotiations happen. As a result ships from Connecticut (especially New London harbour in the east) sail to Providence harbour and conduct business (supposedly doing “internal trade” - isn't Rhode Island part of the US?), Rhode Island passes on to Connecticut a cut of the proceeds, not labelled as customs duties, oh no, that would be treasonous, but as 'a friendly contribution of one state to a neighbour in need'. Those Connecticut ships, of course, just happen to be flying the Pinetree flag if RN blockade ships come by.


By mid-October 1814, Massachusetts has had enough, and even though the fiction is totally, blatantly threadbare, makes the same arrangements for her ports (e.g. Boston) in the main part of the state. Moreover, Massachusetts and the other New England states assemble some of their militias and, now that they are not needed to defend against the British, march them into Connecticut to face off against the New York militia, enabling Connecticut to cut the same deal with the Brits later that month.

[Note that this happens directly after the New London Convention, see below.]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Congress is livid. Furious. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]On the other hand, New England is furious, too. They never wanted the war in the first place, and they have suffered badly from loss of trade. They have paid most of the taxes raised for the war (most of the customs duties were from New England trade, for instance), and, near the beginning of the war as many men from Massachusetts joined the army as any other state except New York (which was rather more populous). But New England is being painted as traitors by much of the rest of the country and the Federalist party that many of them belong to is being tarred with the same brush. More and viler rhetoric is flowing in Congress and in newspapers, and the New Englanders decide that something needs to be done. Massachusetts invites fellow New England states to a 'Convention' to discuss matters pertaining New England's best interests, and how to best 1) stop the war, 2) improve New England's reputation, 3) guarantee their influence in the future of the United States.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]After some discussion, the Convention is called in New London, Connecticut in late September 1814. [this is analogous to the Hartford that happened in Hartford, CT 3 months later iOTL]. Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island send official delegates, Vermont sends a couple of 'observers' and allows some counties to send their own delegations. [OTL, the Battle of Plattsburgh was a major US victory right next to Vermont, and Governor Chittendon didn't want to push things Here, 'neutrality' is serving Vermont well, and while he still doesn't dare officially support the convention, he can move slightly in that direction.] New Hampshire, with a largely Republican council, and scared of the possible results, refuses to have anything to do with the convention. However, a couple of counties send their own delegates and are seated.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]So 12 delegates from Massachusetts, 7 from Connecticut, 4 from Rhode Island, 3 each from Vermont and New Hampshire counties, for a total of 29 delegates. Plus the two official 'observers' from the Vermont state government. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Three of the delegates from Massachusetts, namely George Cabot, Nathan Dane and Timothy Pickering had been part of the Essex Junto which had worked for secession of New England from the United States in 1804.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Convention produces multiple documents and resolutions. 1) To help stop the war, they refuse to contribute any taxes or customs duties to the Federal government that would be used for making war. Some taxes (approximately a normal peacetime share) they are prepared to pay, if arrangements can be made. They also offer their good offices to be a friendly broker between the US Federal government and Britain. 2) to improve their reputation, they prepare a series of statements and documents outlining their grievances, and pleading their case. As is obvious even to the delegates assembled, this isn't going to do MUCH good, but they have to try. 3) They produce a list of constitutional amendments that they believe are necessary. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]These attempted to combat the policies of the ruling Republicans by:[/FONT]

1. Prohibiting any trade embargo lasting over 60 days;
2. Requiring a two-thirds Congressional majority for declaration of offensive war, admission of a new state, or interdiction of foreign commerce;
3. Removing the three-fifths representation advantage of the South;
4. Limiting future Presidents to one term;
5. Requiring each President to be from a different state than his predecessor. (This provision was aimed directly at the ruling Virginia Dynasty.)

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif][These amendments are the same as the ones from OTL's Hartford Convention.][/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]A sixth amendment, requiring that all holders of major Federal offices be natural born citizens was suggested, but not required.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In addition, they demand that there be at least legislation (if not an actual constitutional amendment) to clarify the use of militias, which would state that they are to be State controlled, not Federal controlled.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The inspired leadership of Timothy Pickering, whose credentials in the cabinets of George Washington and John Adams as Postmaster General, Secretary of State, Secretary of War, and then later as Senator and currently Congressman gave him serious credibility, led the convention to a united position. These amendments must be passed OR ELSE. (Or else 'what' wasn't stated, and an explicit threat secession would probably not have passed the convention, at that point, but given the history of the Essex Junto, it wasn't hard to guess.)[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif][Note that a large majority of New Englanders want to remain within the United States at this point. Similarly, it's only a few the most radical Warhawks that think that New England should be turfed out. OTOH, we have a situation somewhat like the recent Czechoslovakia – where the majority wanted the country to stay together, but the Slovaks and Czechs had such differing ideas as to what the united country should look like that it just fell apart. Again, they had a Slovak nationalist running their negotiations who insisted on a harder line than many of his countrymen would have demanded. Same here with our New Englanders. The divorce won't be quite as Velvet as Czechoslovakia's, but it won't be the (first) American Civil War, either.][/FONT]

 

[foresterab]

Wow...

So much about US economics and inter-state relations that I'm learning from this timeline. I've read references to it before but it is amazing how a little change can cause so much chaos especially given trade interuption.

In regards to new england and maine...was thinking of a comment I heard at school regarding the old white pine log trade (squared logs for sawing in Britian and masts). "A New Brunswick logger is a rookie till he's logged Maine" which was a reference to the amount of cross border labour force that worked on both sides of the offical border....in later years this force would spread west to Ontario and Michigan passing the knowledge learned on.

Excellent work as always.
foresterab

 

[Northstar]

(Gee, and I got a map up BEFORE Northstar whined at me this time!)

Yay! Map. Is it dedicated to me? I saw it during my exile but for obvious reasons couldn't comment.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Yay! Map. Is it dedicated to me? I saw it during my exile but for obvious reasons couldn't comment.

Well, I knew you wanted it. Sure, consider it dedicated to you. Did you like your cameo?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

US status, spring/summer 1814

US status, spring/summer 1814



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the spring of 1814, the American army was largely on hold, waiting for the navy to clear any or all of the 3 major lakes. New regiments are formed and army and militia are trained. Due to British raids, thousands of soldiers are stationed up and down the eastern seaboard of the US to try to fend of British descents. And tens of thousands of soldiers are doing garrison and escort duty. But aside from the actions against Florida in the south, little actual fighting happens. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif](There are some 5000 men at the south end of Lake Champlain (Whitehall and Ticonderoga); 3-4k at Erie, 6k+ at Oswego, 2k on the Niagara frontier, and some 2k being supported expensively by road at Sackett's Harbor, about 4k on the Ohio border and about 2k garrisoning the north bank of the Ohio in southern Indiana and south eastern Illinois. There are probably some 10k in forts on the eastern seaboard, 2k in New Orleans, 1k+ at St. Augustine, and something like 1k lost in front of Pensacola. And that's just garrison soldiers. In addition to that you have sutlers, chandlers, quartermasters, etc, etc, headquarters companies, training companies, etc., and navy personal both on the ocean and on the lakes. Civilian teamsters aren't up to carrying the load of supplying all these men, so much of the supply (especially near the frontiers) is done by the army, which takes yet more men. While the US has managed to raise the regular army to 50k men [more than she ever did OTL], there seems to be more demand for soldiers than they can yet raise.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]When the news of the naval defeats on Lakes Ontario and Erie arrive in the corridors of power, a serious rethink becomes necessary. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]West and Northwest[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]During July, a couple of thousand of men from various garrisons are pulled out and shifted west to man some of the border forts, freeing some of the Kentuckians to move north into southern Illinois and try to retake Missouri, and to move north and west from Kentucky and Ohio into southern Indiana.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Unfortunately for the Americans, the British have not only moved another 1000 regulars into Missouri/Central Illinois, they are working on a couple of major forts just south of St. Louis on each side of the Mississippi to guard the river from attacks coming from the south. They also have several gunboats now, including one armed steamboat. While there are a couple of American (commercial) steamboats on the Mississippi, they are only on the lower Mississippi (e.g. running between Natchez and New Orleans). On the other hand, the reinforcements that Illinois is getting mean that the Brits don't have the force to attack them either (beyond pinprick raids). [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Several skirmishes do happen, both on land and on the river, but neither side can move the other at all, so it's all pretty inconclusive. Those extra US troops do prevent a British advance into southern Illinois, however.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In Indiana, the extra US patrols do increase the area that is hostile to the British, but don't manage to entirely clear Indian raiders from southern part of the territory. Also, the British have significantly reinforced the forts they do hold with veterans from Europe, so the US is in no position really to try to retake any of them. The steamboats on the Maumee and Wabash, while they are still rather experimental and temperamental do significantly add to the ability of the Brits to maintain and supply their forces in Indiana, as long as they're anywhere near a major river.[/FONT]



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Chesapeake[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Since the British aren't trying to take and hold eastern Maine, some of the men that would have been used for that operation are added to the raiding force on the eastern seaboard of the US. In particular, the attack on Washington DC happens largely as OTL at the end of August, with slightly larger forces on each side. However, any thoughts that General Ross might have had about trying to take Baltimore are quickly put aside [iTTL] for several reasons. a) while Washington was only lightly garrisoned as it was believed to be out of reach there are more troops in the Chesapeake bay area, enough to defeat the British if the British were silly enough to bog themselves down in a siege and wait for the US troops to concentrate. b) there are actual regular army troops in Baltimore, iTTL, c) Cochrane (in charge of the naval contingent) doesn't really want to and iTTL isn't convinced to change his mind (the navy couldn't get close enough to Baltimore to do any good, and he knew it. For some reason iOTL, he agreed to try), and d) there is more pressure from London to move elsewhere. Because there is no attack on Baltimore, there is no attack on Fort McHenry, and the Star-Spangled Banner is never written, and thus never becomes the national anthem. Also, General Ross is obviously not killed in the attack on Baltimore (since it doesn't happen) and thus the British high command doesn't have to suddenly replace the general in charge of the next stage. [Oh, and OTL, Cochrane wanted to hare off and invade Rhode Island, and had to be talked out if it. ITTL, Rhode Island is 'neutral' – effectively pro-British, and so there is no question of invading her.][/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The shock of Washington getting burned (OK, so it was only the White House and a few government building, much like OTL), means that even more soldiers sent to the coast, some are pulled out of garrisons in the north and more are raised. It does mean that any thought of sending more troops west is definitely out of the question.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Florida[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In July, a first batch of reinforcements arrive at Pensacola (including a regiment of Spanish soldiers – since Wellington didn't want to use them in France, they were available to use elsewhere, and Spain iTTL, with British help, now hopes to actually hold Florida). [This is a month earlier than OTL, and contains more men, including Spanish soldiers from Europe.][/FONT]

 

[foresterab]

Why do I have this image of a group of sharks (with Royal colors flying)swimming around a hapless USA ?


Nice work Dathi