An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

[yboxman]

#12 1895a: Cry havoc

January 1895, Jeolla province, Korea

Yuan Shikai is frowning as he studies the maps and supply inventories. Defeating the Southern Jeob had taken longer than he thought, even with the help of their Northern co-religionists and the re-organized Korean army. But he has whipped his army, and it is now, without a doubt, HIS army into shape over the grueling three month campaign.

The rebels have been broken and fled eastwards into the Sobaek Mountains separating Jeolla from Japanese occupied Gyeongsang. He knows they were getting, are still getting, weapons and supplies from the Eastern dwarves. But their power is now broken, and the Japanese revealed as a frail reed to rely on.

Perhaps some of their leaders might be convinced to switch sides. With winter coming he cannot pursue them over the mountains. But in two month's time… in two months time he would cross the mountains and push the Eastern dwarves into the sea. With or without the navy's help.

Febuary 1895, London

Rosebery clenches the arms of his chair in helpless rage as a ripple of disbelief runs through parliament. For the first time in the history of the united kingdom a prime minister presiding over a parlimentary majority has been defeated in a vote of no confidence. Was it the Irish? Had they deserted him? No it was the members of his own liberal party (1).

The vote of no confidence was in regards to the upcoming naval and defense estimates. But the ghost hovering over heated debate about the relative benefits and costs of Cordite was that of the Armenian victims of the Porte.
Gladstone, even from retirement, has defeated him after all. Is that a glance exchanged between the conservative Salisbury and his ancient archrival across the aisle?

March 1895, London

"The Sultan refuses all the proposed guarantees, the High Commissioner, the Commission of Control, the veto on Valis...The admission of Christians to the administration is limited.. .the provincial councils-general are refused, and also the proposed reforms of the Tribunals, gendarmerie and police. The reply does not accept our proposals as to the return of emigrants, Judicial Commissions, amnesty, reparation of victims of massacres, inspection of prisons, or proposals for Armenians in other Provinces. Nothing is said as to taxation or finances…"

Salisbury lowers the telegraph sent to him by Currie, shocked. It is true he had contemplated, even privately threatened, the partition of the Ottoman empire but this…

"Is the man utterly insane?"

Abdul Hamid could not possibly contemplate victory in a war against Russia, France and Britain. Even assuming Italy and the Balkan states would not pounce on the twitching corpse of his empire… which was an outcome Salisbury did not find at all appealing.

"Could he possibly be relying on help from Prussia?"

Kimberly, advising the newly appointed premier, helplessly shakes his head.
"Berlin has assured us that Wilhelm will advise the Sultan to accept the reform package provided that Germany's commercial interests and their portion of the Ottoman debt are respected. (2)"

"Then what on earth is he thinking? Good god, I do believe he thinks I am bluffing (3)!"

The trouble was, he wasn't. With the general elections only a month away, and with the cause for the fall of the Rosebery ministry largely seen as failure to address the Armenian question adequately he had no choice but to take stern action.

Kimberly shrugs. "Well, I am afraid the Armenian question is now yours to solve. I wish you the best old chap".

April 1895, Gyeongsang-Jeolla provincial border, Korea
He had lost. How could he have lost? He hadn’t planned to engage the Japanese in the field of course. Not yet, not without the approval of the ever cautious court in Beijing. Merely advance into Gyeongsang under the pretext of completing the suppression of the southern Jeob and confine them to their enclave in Busan.

His sources had assured him the Japanese army had clear orders to acquisience in the Sino-Korean reoccupation of the province. That their political leadership would hold on to their foothold on the mainland only as a negotiating ploy to maintain their commercial privillages in Choson, and limit the presence of Chinese troops and ships south of Seoul.

Instead, a Japanese force acting in seeming isolation from the main army had assaulted his right flank. When he concentrated his forces against it he was repulsed and then forced to withdraw as the Japanese main force advanced. A series of running battles had left him with hundereds of casualties and forced him to abandon much of his artillery. He had outnumberd the combined Japanese forces by nearly two to one. But he doubted he inflicted on them even half of the casualties he had suffered (4).

He would have to fortify the passes of the Sobaek mountains. Call for reinforcements from Beijing and use every connection he had to get China navy to combine it's forces and crush the Japanese at sea. Whatever deficiencies the latest skirmish might have revealed in the Beyang's army elan, he was certain China's battleships would crush Japan's underclassed fleet (5).

(1) OTL, but three months earlier. George is playing up the "poor refugees freezing in the snow" card very well.
(2) OTL. Germany would take a very different tack during the Cretan crisis one year later. The entente was really missing a window of opportunity here- but of course, at this point they weren't the entente.
(3) That was Abdul Hamid's calculation OTL- and it was brilliantly correct. The data he's operating under is much the same TTL- but it is incomplete.
(4) Which is actually very good compared to OTL. The first land engagement between the Japanese and the Beyang army ended in a 10:1 casualty ratio. TTL the Qing forces are fitter and outnumber the Japanese. The Japanese,in contrast are undertrained and under armed due to the recent cutbacks.
(5) OTL, the Beyang fleet outmassed the Japanese combined fleet though the Japanese ships were more modern. OTOH they were based on protected cruisers and had no Battleships. TTL, the Nanyang and Beyang fleet are operating together and the Japanese fleet is missing 2 of the 4 1890s 4000+Ton cruisers it had OTL.

 

[abc123]

Great series of updates. ;-) You will spoil us...

 

[zert]

Wow things are hitting the fan in the Ottomans and getting chewed up in Korea. Will the Qing drive out the Japanese or will Korea become the battlefield contested by Japan and China?

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Russia, as mentioned in post #4, annexed the Kuriles to the 1945 "Stalin line". In other words- all of them up to the shores of Hokaido.

That is unfortunate.
How are the local Ainu doing?

During WWI you mean? or do you mean something else? if so, link/sources please.

During WWI and earlier.

From Dangerous Rapprochement - Russia and Japan in the First World War 1914 - 1916:

FROM CONFRONTATION TO RAPPROCHEMENT

The Russo-Japanese War, the first large-scale conflict of the 20th century, significantly changed the political situation in the Far East. The victory over Russia gave the Japanese Empire an opportunity to act the role of the leader in northeast Asia and let Japan position among Great powers. On the contrary, her defeat in the war seriously damaged international prestige of Russia.

In the decade after the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905), the diplomatic
relations between St. Petersburg and Tokyo gradually transformed from efforts to split up Manchuria and Mongolia into spheres of influence, into political rapprochement by the beginning of the First World War. According to the secret articles of the Russian-Japanese Convention of 1907 Russia reaffirmed Japanese special interests in Korea and South Manchuria as a sphere of Japanese influence, and Japan confirmed Russia’s priority in northern Manchuria.

Furthermore, Russia and Japan made joint efforts to prevent the presence of
other countries, first of all, the United States, in Manchuria that was agreed in the Russian-Japanese Convention of 1910. Consequently, when the Japanese annexation of Korea was announced on August 22, 1910, Russia expressed no objection.

According to the Russian-Japanese Convention signed in 1912, Inner Mongolia was also split between Russia and Japan by Peking meridian. Russia secured the western part of Manchuria, and Japan dominated its eastern part.

From the end of 1910 to the beginning of 1911, Russian ambassador to London, Aleksandr Khristophorovich Benkendorf pointed out in his telegrams to St. Petersburg that the Russian government had to take into account international, especially British, public opinion in the creation of the Far Eastern policy. “What I read too often,” he reported, “is a prediction, that Russian government, considering its western border safe, would renew its [expansionist] policy in Asia.” To Benkendorf, even the concentration of a considerable contingent of troops on the eastern border could not decrease the acuteness of this problem. Benkendorf wrote to the Foreign Minister, Sergei Dmitrievich Sazonov, that he “could frankly say, that [renewing of expansionist policy in Asia] is not possible without a long diplomatic preparation.”

At the meeting of the Russian supreme legislative body, the Duma, in April 1912, Sazonov himself characterized the balance between the European and Far Eastern policies of Russia in the following way: “We need not to forget that Russia is a European power and the Russian state was created not on the banks of the Black Irtish, but on the banks of the Dnieper and Moscow-River. An extension of Russian
possessions in Asia cannot be an aim of our policy, as it would result in undesirable displacement of the center of gravity in the state and, hence, in the weakening of our position in Europe and the Near East.”

By concentrating “the center of gravity” in Europe, the Russian government looked for a guaranty to save its eastern border and, consequently, to preserve status quo with Japan, which military aid was also very important to Russia from the beginning of the Great War.

Therefore, when Japan announced the notorious Twenty-One Demands to China, the Russian government acted fast in declaring that “the relations, established between Russia and Japan, assure the Russian government that the Twenty-One Demands did not contain anything contradicting the interests of Russia. The Russian government considered the Demands as appropriate to be claimed to the Chinese government.”
In May 1915, Twenty-One Demands were accepted by Peking and gave the
Japanese Empire new advantages, not enjoyed by Russia, in Manchuria. These
included the prolongation of the term of exploitation of the South Manchuria
Railway and the right for Japanese citizens to mine, live and rent land in South
Manchuria.

After enlisting some diplomatic support from France, Russia proposed to
create a British-French-Russian-Japanese alliance. However, this proposal was
rejected by London either in 1914 or in 1915 because Japan imposed conditions
of the alliance that Japan should participate in joint economic enterprises of the
leading powers in China and the Japanese subjects should be permitted to enter into British dominions.
Thus, a quadrilateral alliance did not come into existence, and Russia and Japan made efforts for the concluding of a bilateral agreement.
...
The Russo-Japanese Convention of 1916 contained the same articles as the
Conventions concluded before. The Convention had two parts, main and secret.

The main part of the Convention declared that both sides would not take
part in a political alliance directed against one of them and, if sovereignty of
any party would be threatened, the other side would take mutual measures for
its defense.

The secret part of the Convention reaffirmed the previous Russian-Japanese declarations to preserve the territorial and administrative integrity of
China and stipulated that appropriate measures would be taken to avoid the
establishment of political supremacy in China by a third country. Moreover, in
the case of Japan or Russia becoming involved in a war with a third country,
the other side must come to the aid at the earliest demand of the ally and not
make peace with a third country without mutual consent.

The Convention also pointed out that neither Japan, nor Russia could aid any other country without the provision of assistance for themselves from their allies.

See also: Russo-Japanese Relations, 1905-17: From enemies to allies
Even prior to WWI (1912), their relationship is described as "politically close alignment".

I had some really good scenes with Maayan Nevo/Ayn Rand planned but...No. Or not for a while and not here. Why?

1. http://wiki.alternatehistory.com/doku.php/offtopic/joatsimeon. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=1095103&postcount=106. http://wiki.alternatehistory.com/doku.php/offtopic/yonatan. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=9445957#post9445957. Enough said.

2. With ISIS, Assad, Putin and everything else in the neighborhood it was getting too damn depressing and draining me of inspiration. I mean, you set up to write a frankly dystopic TL and what happens? A two bit Anglo-Jihadist puts it all on live-cam.

3. That TL was NOT aimed at fulfilling some kind of "Greater Israel, death to Turkey and Iran" fantasy. It was aimed at:
a. exploring the real world plausability of actually making Israel, in it's maximum semi-plausible bounds, a homeland for the majority of the world's Jews within the limits of early 20th century technology.
b. Tangents of likely societal development with the external existential threat which defined OTL Israeli society replaced by internal stress caused by resource limitations.
c. Examining how the world would develop if the European civil war known as WWI would end before the old order had not been totally overthrown (No Russian or German revolution, no breakup of AH, no universal suffarage in UK, Germany or Italy) and how Jews, a Jewish state, and other "non white" people would fare within the mores of an "old-new world".
d. Generally delve into individual and collective decision making and justification under conditions of extreme stress.

I'm not sure I succeeded in getting my main theme across. Israel may simply be a topic too emotional for rational analysis and discussion.

4. I do harbor some faint ambition of developing one of my TLs into publishable work once I finish my damn PhD. "Mound of spring" would have a appeal to a limited audience and would risk branding me the wrong way. I think I'm better off sticking to Vikings, Conquistadors and Maya-Norse hybrids for my first attempt at publication. So my main focus, once I advance TTL to it's logical end point, is going to be "1492".

Maybe if and after I establish myself with a few other works I might redig the Mound of Spring. Perhaps by then the situation here will be less depressing. Realistically, though, probably not.

So, once again Banhammer and Daesh destroyed something good.
I guess it can't be helped.

I called it "Greater Israel, death to Turkey and Iran" because these were some of the aspects of the TL that stuck in my mind.
The ones you mentioned were interesting, but (most of them) needed more time to develop.

 

[abc123]

I wonder, do Czar George and Elena have any kids by now?

 

[Clandango]

Wow things are hitting the fan in the Ottomans and getting chewed up in Korea. Will the Qing drive out the Japanese or will Korea become the battlefield contested by Japan and China?

My vote is the place gets taken over my an Orthodox Christian republic or monarchy.

 

[yboxman]

That is unfortunate.
How are the local Ainu doing?

Actually didn't think of them at all.

If Russia keeps the Kuriles and Sakhlain then the Kurile and Sakhlain Ainu will do better on the short term. Less forcible and other relocation, no mass executions, and the Russians will likely view them as useful local allies Vs the Japanese. Less settlement of the Kuriles by the Russians (Due to less population pressure and greater distance from the Rodina) means the Ainu have more time to adopt to modernity before being integrated into the mainstream of Russian life.

With Hokaido demillitarized for a while the Ainu there will also do a bit better. Some may relocate to Sakhlain the way some Kurile Ainu relocated to Kamchatka OTL.

But on the long run the Ainu are too few to really survive as a distinct people. They will undergo various degrees of Russianization, intermarriage, and marginilization much as the smaller Siberian And trans-Ussuri people did under the Russians. If the Bolsheviks are averted most will probably be converted, at least superficially, to Orthodox Christianity. But they will have more living descendents who will suffer less than OTL. That's worth something.

Of course, if the Japanese conquer or are ceded Sakhlain and the Kuriles, they will suffer even worse than OTL.

During WWI and earlier.

From Dangerous Rapprochement - Russia and Japan in the First World War 1914 - 1916:

See also: Russo-Japanese Relations, 1905-17: From enemies to allies
Even prior to WWI (1912), their relationship is described as "politically close alignment".

Yes, I read that book. It's good. The dynamics leading to Russo-Japanse reapproachment OTL will be somewhat different TTL. But rationally speaking the potential for detente and advancing common interests certainly exists. Russia is a land power and keeping a massive fleet in the Far East to deter Japan is really a drain. Japan is a sea power and keeping a massive expeditionary force for continental intervention is equally a drain, and a political menace.

Unfortunately states often get trapped in irrational dynamics they find diffcult to withdraw from.

So, once again Banhammer and Daesh destroyed something good.
I guess it can't be helped.

Nope. Not that I was ever warned or felt the shadow of the banhammer over my head. But one can't write as well under the shadow of that type of biased censorship.

Ian's obessesions seem limited to a few specific peeves relating to Israel, various contemprary culture war issues and the whole war on terror-Islamophobia complex. Most of my historical interests are elsewhere and elsewhen- And it's probably better if to write about something farther away from home anyways

The ones you mentioned were interesting, but (most of them) needed more time to develop.

Someday, maybe.

 

[Dementor]

“Send a messenger to the Ottoman commander. We will surrender… but only to an accredited representative of the great powers who will vouch to our safety.”

The Ottomans will refuse this condition of course. And Armenia will have its Martyrs (1).

(1) Just to be 100% clear this is not an historical account of the 1894 Sasoun resistance. There are no reliable sources for what went down there so I’m engaging in Literary re-interpretation. It is also not an indictment of the Armenian nationalist movements. The treatment they were subjected to by the Ottomans is, well, about as Bad as that the Jews suffered under the Romanovs and one can well understand why many among them would have viewed an independent state, or even a Russian occupation, as the only tolerable solution to their quandary. I do however believe the above passage is indicative of the calculations which led Armenian national leaders to launch downright suicidal insurrections.

Historical experience however shows that surrendering would very likely not have helped at all. Batak, for example surrendered during the 1876 uprising. The fact that the Ottomans would refuse a surrender in the presence of the representatives of the great powers is indicative enough. After all, they can always fall back to the usual explanation of "Savage Kurdish bands carrying out massacres without an order from the Ottoman government".

Not treated quite so badly in the 1880s. If they had been there would have been no Armenian question in WWI- since they would have been all dead by then. WWI is another story- but the state of mind which led to the Armenian Genocide was only arrived at after the Ethnic cleansing and massacre of Muslims associated with the Cretan revolt and Balkan wars.
[/QOUTE]
Let's not forget that as bad as the Muslims were treated during the Balkan wars, there was never any attempt to deliberately remove them in their entirety, nor was the scale of massacres and expulsion even close to that of what happened with the Armenians (the number of Muslims fleeing the conquered lands was about 400 thousands between 1912 and 1918, and this is according to Turkish sources) or that they were accompanied by massacres by the Ottomans against Christians (most notably during the Second Balkan war). It would be rather difficult otherwise to have a population exchange between Greece and Turkey, nor would there be any large Muslim minorities as there are today in many Balkan countries.

And, again without in any way condemming Armenian nationalists or excusing Turkish actions, The Turks in WWI had good reason to fear a repeat of the "Christian subjects rebel, European powers intervene, Muslims in "liberated" Christian states massacred and ethnically cleansed. Wash and Repeat" scenario they had been facing from 1820 onwards in the Balkans and the Caucaus- but brought into their core territories, and last refuge in Anatolia. Severes, and the Turkish Greek war show that this fear was not unfounded.

I don't see why liberated is in quotes. As you yourself admit, the Ottoman Empire treated its Christian population badly and they failed numerous times to arrange for an autonomy or some other solution satisfactory to the Christian inhabitants. Also, European intervention was fairly limited in Greece (mainly done to prevent the Egyptian intervention in favor of the Ottomans), nonexistent in Serbia and in the case of Bulgaria, most of the Great powers intervened in favor of the Ottoman Empire. And the interventions of the European powers were usually brought out by the Ottomans own massacres after rebellions (and these, more often than not, led to massacres by the Christians population).
Regarding the Armenians specifically, however valid the fears of the Ottomans, it should be pointed out that nearly all uprisings began only after massacres had already begun. You can see some sources I found on this subject here and here. So it seems likely that the uprisings served merely as a pretext to begin mass deportations.

Of course, since the Genocide was carried out against the Apolitical Assyrians and Armenians in the interior and since Djemal seems to have had similliar plans for the Orthodox Christians of Syria the whole "We were just undertaking necessary relocation of a hostile and rebelious population to the interior and accidentially forgot to provide them with food" argument doesn't have much traction.

The Armenians from western Anatolia and even the European part of the Empire were deported (the later after Bulgaria had already entered the war as an Ottoman ally). The only exception were the Armenians of Istanbul and Izmir.

 

[abc123]

I don't see why liberated is in quotes.

Agreed. Pretty simple- the Turks were the conquerors in that area. When you get rid of conquerors, you have liberated your country.

 

[yboxman]

I don't see why liberated is in quotes. As you yourself admit, the Ottoman Empire treated its Christian population badly and they failed numerous times to arrange for an autonomy or some other solution satisfactory to the Christian inhabitants.

Quotes are meant to designate the Ottoman/Turkish/Muslim perspective. But also that in some cases, such as Crete, Kosovo, Epirus, Saloniki and Bosnia (not to mention Circassia and Crimea) the areas liberated had a non Christian majority or near majority which was not very enthusiastic about the change in government. Even in the core regions of the new states Muslims made up a large minority of the population.

So while it was certainly a liberation for the Christians freed from Ottoman yoke the experience for the Muslims in those states was rather different- especially as they were often subject to similar oppression Christians suffered under the Ottomans (and from which they were very theoretically free between 1908-1911)- as were Christians as the wrong nationality. Greeks, Serbs and Bulgarians all used massacre and ethnic cleansing against "unsound" populations to some extent during the Balkan wars (the first as well of the second)- as well as against "Macedonians" who showed rectlaciance in switching to the locally correct nationality.

In Armenia the situation is further complicated because Outside Bitlis and a few Sanjaks in Van (and there only barely) It's generally accepted that the Armenians were a minority everywhere in the Six Vilayets even if one counts other groups of Christians and crypto Christians. And 1/3 of the Ottoman empire's Armenians lived outside the Six Vilayets. So there is no way any Armenian Majority state with most, or even a significant fraction of Ottoman Armenians in it, could have been formed absent massive population movements. Demographically wise Armenians were not much better concentrated the Six Vilayets than, say, Jews in Right Bank Ukraine.

Agreed. Pretty simple- the Turks were the conquerors in that area. When you get rid of conquerors, you have liberated your country.

But when the conquerers are there for three centuries or more, and are born there (As the Three pashas leading the young Turks, as well as Mustafa Kemal) and have a very dense demographic footprint they no longer tend to view themselves as alien conquerers and tend not to view their loss of political control, let alone their expulsion, as natural or right.

Besides, to the Greeks the Slavs to the North were only slightly less recent conquers than the Turks… and of course for the Albanians/Illyrians both Slav and Greek were conquerers of their ancient homeland.

In the end of the day all people came from somewhere else and either exterminated, subjugated or assimilated the people already living there.

Historical experience however shows that surrendering would very likely not have helped at all. Batak, for example surrendered during the 1876 uprising. The fact that the Ottomans would refuse a surrender in the presence of the representatives of the great powers is indicative enough. After all, they can always fall back to the usual explanation of "Savage Kurdish bands carrying out massacres without an order from the Ottoman government".

That expalanation would be hard in Sassun since the Forces which captured it were Ottoman regulars rather than Kurdish tribesmen. Foreign protection of Armenians or other Christians had a very mixed efficacy- sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't depending on the local and global politics.

Let's not forget that as bad as the Muslims were treated during the Balkan wars, there was never any attempt to deliberately remove them in their entirety, nor was the scale of massacres and expulsion even close to that of what happened with the Armenians (the number of Muslims fleeing the conquered lands was about 400 thousands between 1912 and 1918, and this is according to Turkish sources)

400,000 in the first Balkan war, yes. But to the Ottomans it is all of a piece. Counting the Circassians, the Crimeans, the Cretans, 1875-1878, etc… All in all some 2.5 Muslims were forced to relocate between 1856-1914 (Many of them, of course effectively relocated two or three times. Eg; Circassians fleeing to the Balkans in 1864, being driven south into Macedonoia in 1878 and then fleeing to Anatolia in 1912).

There are somewhat biased accouns of the full scope of this here http://www.tc-america.org/media/Forced_Displacement.pdf, and here http://ieg-ego.eu/en/threads/europe...nd-emigration-of-the-muslims-from-the-balkans

So no, with the possible exception of the Circassians none of this was nearly as horrific as what was done to Armenians in WWI. But what happened to the Armenians PRIOR to WWI was not close to what happened to Balkan Muslims during the Balkan wars, or 1875-1878, let alone Caucasian and Crimean Muslims. It's also worth noting that the Russians in WWI carried out a pretty clear sweep of the areas of Anatolia they occupied, and drove the Turkish/Kurdish population out.

Also, European intervention was fairly limited in Greece (mainly done to prevent the Egyptian intervention in favor of the Ottomans),

Untrue. The Russians invaded the Balkans and took Adrianopole https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Turkish_War_(1828–29) and a joint European fleet destroyed the Ottoman-Egyptian navy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Navarino The Greeks were largely defeated by then- absent that intervention they may well have ended the same way the Armenians did a century later. Egypt was a nominal Ottoman vassal so this was, to the Ottoman way of thinking, a "internal affair".

nonexistent in Serbia

The first Serbian uprising was concurrent with the Russian-Turkish war of 1806-1812 and supported by the Austrians. Even though their autonomy was not part of the peace treaty, European intervention played a role. More relevant is what happened in 1875. Serbs invade Bosnia in support of rebellion. Serb army is crushed. Ottoman army advances into Serbia- and is ordered back by Austria. Treaty of Berlin awards Serbia full independence and territorial gains. Lesson learned: rolling the dice in going to war against the Ottomans is a no-lose bet- which Greece undertook as well in 1896. Defeated in the field, but awarded a part in the administration of Crete.

and in the case of Bulgaria, most of the Great powers intervened in favor of the Ottoman Empire.

They intervened against Russia- which put far more on the line in support of Bulgaria than Bismark did against it. And one reason Bulgaria succeeded in bloodlessly annexeing Rumelia is that the Ottomans mistakenly thought that resisting would result in Russian intervention.

And the interventions of the European powers were usually brought out by the Ottomans own massacres after rebellions (and these, more often than not, led to massacres by the Christians population).

The 1875 (Serbia) and 1896 (Greece) interventions are examples of the opposite dynamic.

Regarding the Armenians specifically, however valid the fears of the Ottomans, it should be pointed out that nearly all uprisings began only after massacres had already begun. You can see some sources I found on this subject here and here. So it seems likely that the uprisings served merely as a pretext to begin mass deportations. ).

I agree- The Van uprising was spurred more by Ottoman actions than by Russian advances and postdated the initiation of massacres.

And deportations of the Greeks to the interior had also been going on between 1911-1914. So it's fairly likely that plans for persecution and deportation were in place before the war broke out.

The thing is, however, that between 1911-1914 those deportations were not genocidal. So my tendency is to believe that while a deliberate decision was made at some point at the top levels, and the natural inclination at the field levels was to exterminate, rather than resettle, the Armenian deportees the dominant intention on top in 1915 probably was aimed merely at deportation.

My point was not that the Ottomans were reacting to proximate Armenian actions- they weren't or at least not mostly. They were reacting to a wider and longer trend.

The Armenians from western Anatolia and even the European part of the Empire were deported (the later after Bulgaria had already entered the war as an Ottoman ally). The only exception were the Armenians of Istanbul and Izmir.

Not even a total exception there- notables were rounded up. There's absolutely no doubt on my part that a deliberate decision to use the war and the deportations as a cover for extermination was undertaken.

My point is merely that those making that decision, and those who chose to look the other way while it was being carried out, believed with fairly good cause that doing otherwise would result in the Turks/Muslims being driven into an ever shrinking, and unsustainable, core domain in Anatolia- my scenario in "Mounds of spring" is an extreme one. But it probably isn't all that implausible.

Next post will focus on the Sino-Japanese war.

 

[abc123]

Yboxman


Yes, indeed, Turks can see liberation struggle of Serbs, Macedonians, Armenians and others as unjustified, but I think that they would have the same view with only 10 or 20 years of occupation. Nobody likes to be pushed back from already conquered land. 10 or 300 years.

About the Illyrians, well if by some miracle the Illyrians appear today, I think that it would be pretty fair that allmost all nations in Balkans give them their land back. But we both know that's will not gonna happen...

About the Greeks, I think that original area where Greek tribes settled during their arrival of Balkans is area they can pretty fairly call it's own space, later Roman conquests are something completely different.

 

[abc123]

I wonder, do Czar George and Elena have any kids by now?

I repeat this question.

Also, what's the year of their wedding, between George and Elena- 1892 or?

 

[Halagaz]

So no, with the possible exception of the Circassians none of this was nearly as horrific as what was done to Armenians in WWI. But what happened to the Armenians PRIOR to WWI was not close to what happened to Balkan Muslims during the Balkan wars, or 1875-1878, let alone Caucasian and Crimean Muslims. It's also worth noting that the Russians in WWI carried out a pretty clear sweep of the areas of Anatolia they occupied, and drove the Turkish/Kurdish population out.

Didn't the Hamidian massacres involve the murder of 80,000 (if not much more) Armenians? Assuming those numbers are approximately true, that comes more than close to what happened to the Balkan Muslims during the two wars.

The 1875 (Serbia) and 1896 (Greece) interventions are examples of the opposite dynamic.

Not really. There were massacres and expulsions of Christians in Bosnia in 1875 - over 100,000 people had to take refuge in Serbia, Montenegro and Austria-Hungary (ie. Croatia). Same with Crete in 1889 and 1895-98, where both the Ottomans and the rebels engaged in murder and pillaging. The last such Ottoman act in August 1898 was especially relevant to the final decision by which Ottoman troops had to leave the island.


From a purely Ottoman perspective the fear of another intervention is understandable. Of course, a purely Ottoman perspective also leaves out some pretty important details about the causes of these various interventions and Ottoman behavior before, during and after.

 

[Grouchio]

You do realize that the Albanians are the most-likely descendants of the Illyrians today, right? Wouldn't they boast their claim to the Balkans based on this and more?

 

[yboxman]

I repeat this question.

Also, what's the year of their wedding, between George and Elena- 1892 or?

1892. will update on that front next post after I make up my own mind

Didn't the Hamidian massacres involve the murder of 80,000 (if not much more) Armenians? Assuming those numbers are approximately true, that comes more than close to what happened to the Balkan Muslims during the two wars.

Estimates on the casulties of the Hamidian massacres range from 20,000-300,000. Since there is considerable controversy regarding the reliability of the Ottoman census of 1881-1893 and 1905-1906, especially in regard to the Armenian population, a definitive determination cannot be made.

However, comparing the two does not show a sharp drop in the Armenian population of the empire one would expect from the higher figures. Even if the Ottomans were "cooking the books" in regards to counting Armenians, it seems unlikely that they would specifically seek to obscure a drop in the Armenian population in 1905- by then the Hamidian massacres were old news.


Bottom line: Most professional and unaffilated (Not armenian or Turkish advocates) that I've read tend to estimate 25,000 dead directly by massacre and perhaps as many more do to conditions caused by flight and expulsion. Which is about as much as...

Not really. There were massacres and expulsions of Christians in Bosnia in 1875 - over 100,000 people had to take refuge in Serbia, Montenegro and Austria-Hungary (ie. Croatia). Same with Crete in 1889 and 1895-98, where both the Ottomans and the rebels engaged in murder and pillaging. The last such Ottoman act in August 1898 was especially relevant to the final decision by which Ottoman troops had to leave the island.

As you said- but it is worth bearing in mind that the primary initial target of many of the Rebellion against Ottoman rule were the Muslim neighbors of the rebels. In the original Greek rebellion, for example, it is generally accepted that the rebels killed 20-25 thousand Muslims in the pelopenesus in the first weeks of the Rebellion before the Ottomans organized an effective response or large scale massacres of their own.

Ditto for the original Serbian revolt in1806. In some ways the revolts against the Ottomans were really intercommunal wars since the local rebels often had more in the way of resentment towards the local Muslim urban middle class and landlords (Who admittedly gained their superior socio-economic position by Ottoman favoritism).

The same was true of the Bosnian rebellion of 1875- the target for the local rage were the Bosniak landlords and any Muslim residing in the countryside and only indirectly the Ottoman authorities.

And ditto for the Bulgarian revolt of 1877-1878. Even Alexander III, when observing the actions of the Bulgarian rebels against their Muslim neighbors came to the uncomfortable conclusion that "The Turk is not always black" (Which may have influenced his attitude towards the Hamidian massacres)

The thing is, that while massacres of Christians by Ottomans and Muslim irregular millitas aroused rage in Europe, what the rebels and the liberated nation states did to their Muslim neighbors, while familiar to local diplomatic representatives, was generally unreported by the Western Press and did not arouse much interest (except when the Russians were doing it. And then only in Britain)- and the Turks were well aware and resentful of this selective blindness.

From a purely Ottoman perspective the fear of another intervention is understandable. Of course, a purely Ottoman perspective also leaves out some pretty important details about the causes of these various interventions and Ottoman behavior before, during and after.

Of course. At no point up to 1908 did the Ottomans offer an acceptable alternative to rebellion to their Non-Muslim citizens regardless of any commitments they may have made to the Great powers.

But then, in 1908, they did. It was short and it was imperfect, but a multiparty democracy which abolished legal distinctions between Muslims and non-Muslims, or was at least moving in that direction, did arise.

And the result for an ottoman-Turkish perspective? Bosnia, regarded as Muslim- annexed. Bulgaria, by treaty autonomous declares independence and is recognized as such by the power- after it had already "illegally" annexed Eastern Rumelia, again with the percieved support of the power in 1885.

And then Libya, wholly Muslim, is invaded by Italy (and let's not go into how Italy supressed the resistance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_concentration_camps_in_Libya). again, without the censure of the great powers.

And then the Ottomans, in spite of introducing reforms, face joint rebellions in Macedonia and Muslim Albania and are invaded and curbstomped- without any condemmenation by the powers.

This is the Ottoman/Turkish perspective. By that perspective they acceded to European demands for reform only to be abandoned or attacked when they did and with their attackers recieving no condemmenation from the Europeans. That their attackers were not, in fact, aided by the European great powers and defeated the Ottomans entirely on their own is an uncomfortable fact... and one that the average Turk is incapable and unwilling to process.

That perspective ignores what they did up until that point of course, that the reforms of 1908-1911 were marred in execution failed to produce confidence, or that massacres of christians continued to take place during that period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adana_massacre.

But it is human nature to ignore uncomfortable facts. For a Turk, even a reformist, the assumption in 1914 was that if the entente should win and face an Ottoman empire with restless non Muslim minorities it would partition both Anatolia and the Mashriq in short order and expel, massacre and subjugate the Muslims in their new territories.

That prophecy very nearly became self-fulfilling when the Ottoman empire joined the war.

The point here, of course, is not to rehash the rights and wrongs of the Balkan and Armenian struggles (I ditched a promising ME TL and you want that I should drng myself down into this Tsuris?). It is simply to describe the likely frame of mind of Abdul Hamid and the elite surrounding him over the Ultimatum presentd to them over the Armenian question.

 

[abc123]

Bosnia-Hercegovina census in 1910: Muslims 32%, Catholics ( Croats ) 23%, Orthodox (Serbs ) 43%

2/3 Christian majority...

 

[yboxman]

Bosnia-Hercegovina census in 1910: Muslims 32%, Catholics ( Croats ) 23%, Orthodox (Serbs ) 43%

2/3 Christian majority...

In 1910. The AUstrian census of 1879 recorded them at 39% of the population- AFTER the 1875-1878 events, and large-scale flight of Muslims estimated at 150,000 out of 1.2 million (serbs fled as well of course, but they returned after the war).

Which would probably make them 46% of the population prior to 1875 (The Ottoman census of 1875 recorded 51% Muslims but that was probably an overcount) - still a plurality rather than a Majority but one that dominated the cities and economic life and was a majority in large parts of the province.

Of course, just as Hungarians viewed Transylvania as Magyar, and Serbs Kosovo and Vojvodina as Serb, The actual demographic makeup of specific contested regions did not much make much of an impression on the popular imagination of the "nation" involved.

Let us agree that regardless of which group was actually the largest in Bosnia in 1875 the Muslims were sufficiently numerous and dominant for the Turkish elites to view the province as rightfully "Muslim" and to be outraged at it's alienation and subsequesnt flight and diminishment of it's Muslim component.

 

[Clandango]

Should the Bosniacs of the Sanjak be counted, perhaps? Of of Kosovo, Albania, etc if you are getting into Muslims. Anyways, though Musllims were at the top of the heap in the area for centuries it is unlike they thought of themselves as Turks, since the Albanians apparently decided once they were cut off form Turkey they might as well go independent.

 

[yboxman]

Should the Bosniacs of the Sanjak be counted, perhaps? Of of Kosovo, Albania, etc if you are getting into Muslims. Anyways, though Musllims were at the top of the heap in the area for centuries it is unlike they thought of themselves as Turks, since the Albanians apparently decided once they were cut off form Turkey they might as well go independent.

Right. With the Sanjac counted as well Muslims were almost certainly the majority- not that whether Muslims were 30% or 55% of the population would have effected Ottoman perception of the issue.

The disintegration of the ottoman/Pan-Islamic identity of the empire after the deposition of Abdul-Hamid and the promotion of "Turkishness" as an alternative source of legitimacy to Islamic law had much to do with the Albanians jumping ship. So long as the latter was the source of Legitimacy Arab, Albanian and even Kurdish elites preffered it to Nationalist ideas.

In any event, the Muslim Albanian clans (about a third of them were Orthodox or Catholic) soon came to regret their decision to jump ship- since most of them were not included within the Albanian principality ruled by the Christian prince appointed to rule it with the help of an international gendermane and the Christian clans. Rather, they came under Serb and Greek rule which was less than tolerant towards them.

And again, this has little to do with how the Turks perceived their situation in 1914.

 

[yboxman]

And unleash the dogs of war


Yellow sea, Japanese flagship Hashidate May 2nd 1895 1200


Itō Sukeyuki was tense. He will remain tense until the combined fleet reached Gunsan.

For the past month he had ferried troops and supplies to Busan without worrying too much about the danger of a Chinese naval assault upon the convoys. Neither side wished to risk their fleets, knowing full well that the loser of the naval engagement would forfeit Korea while the winner would leave himself severely weekend to any European challenge. The advantage in any clash would, of course, be with he who fought closest to his home waters (1)

But now, with Nozu Michitsura (2) bloodily repulsing Yuan Shikai's forces from Jeolla province, and preparing to advance upon Seoul, supplying his forces through Busan was proving too inefficient.

If only the army men had not been so irresponsible to provoke a confortation with the Qing! In one year's time they would have had time not only to staff and and break in not only Yoshino but to acquire her sister ship Takasago as well (5). But the Bushido mad maniac just had to refuse passage to Yuan Shikai… and then get drunk on easy victories worse than a fisherman returning with a prize catch. They just didn't understand that just like Hideyoshi three centuries ago, Nippon could be victorious on land, yet be defeated at sea. Nor did they understand that victory at sea could not be achieved without a preponderance in material and that, unfortunately, was something the Japanese navy lacked.

He had 7 protected cruisers. Two, the Yoshino and his own flagship the Hashidate were constructed in recent years, and were newer than anything the Qing fleet possessed, as well as outmatching any of their ships save the monstorous battleships at the core of their armada. Four of the others, the Takachiho, Naniwa, Fusō and Akitsushima were older, built only a few years after the Qing cruisers. Still, they were far superior to them, with greater mass, speed and armaments. The Chiyoda, built in the 1870s, was the eldest of his cruisers. He had briefly considered assigning it to transport escort duty, together with the corvette Hiei but outnumbered as he was he needed every possible gun on the firing line.

Flying Squadron:
• Yoshino (4150 t, 20 knots (37 km/h), 4-6, 8-4.7) (Kawara Yōichi, RA Tsuboi Kōzō)
• Takachiho (3650t, 15 knots (28 km/h), 2-10.2, 6-6) (Nomura Tadashi)
• Naniwa (3650 t, 16 knots (30 km/h), 2-10.2, 6-6) (Tōgō Heihachirō)

Main Fleet:
• Hashidate ((Omoto and Dewa Shigetō, VA Itoh Sukeyuki) )
• Fusō (3718t, 11 knots (20 km/h), 4-9.4, 2-6) (Arai)
• Akitsushima (3150 t, 16 knots (30 km/h), 4-6, 6-4.7) (Kamimura Hikonojō)
• Chiyoda (2450 t, 19kts, 10-4.7) (Uchida Masatoshi)


Escort Fleet:
• Hiei (2200t, 9 knots (17 km/h), 9-6) (Sakurai Kikunojō)
• Akagi (615t, 8 knots (15 km/h), 2-4.7) (Sakamoto Hachirota)
• Saikyo Maru (merchantman, 2913, 10 knots (19 km/h), small guns) (Kano Yunoshin)


With no railroads and with the Sobaek Mountains and remmanent southern Tonghak bands separating his main forces from Busan, land transport was simply proving insufficient to cope with the volume of supplies he required, even with requisitions from the Korean peasantry (3).

So now he needs must escort the supply and troop ships to Gunsan, uncomfortably far from Kobe and uncomfortably close to Darien. With those ships to escort his fleet's edge in speed is dangerously eroded.
Which is why he is sailing so close to the Southwestern Archipelgo. If he runs into the combined Qing fleet… well, he will pray to Susanoo. And to Repun Kamuy and the White Christ if he thought it would do any good. But he had given orders to the troop ships and supply ships to scatter amongst the archipelago while he engaged the Chinese main fleet.

He didn't count on the cursed fog though. It had dogged his fleet since daybreak and only now showed signs of lifting. That was no good. His fleet was outmassed and outgunned by the Qing. His greatest advantage was that his ships were newer, had greater speed, and were more uniform in their speed. In open waters he could use that advantage, as well of his sailor's better training and coordination (4) to swing about the flank of the Qing Formations and attempt to strike at their weaker ships in isolation, whittle them down and then disengage before they brought their big guns to bear.

In this fog, however… without the wireless telegraph installed, he remained reliant on signal flags which were near all useless under these conditions and was forced to sail his fleet in much closer formation than he preferred. Worse, he could be within 1000 feet of the enemy fleet without even knowing it!
No sooner did the thought arise than did the Fog part to reveal the prow of a massive battleship, nearly twice the mass of his own flagship, revealing itself in an oblique angle to his flagship.

Yellow sea, Qing flagship Zhenyuan May 2nd 1895 1200

Damn this fog! Cursed Philo T. McGiffin, lately executive officer of Zhenyuan , pride of the Beyang fleet, though not, unfortunately, it's flag ship. The Celestial captain Lin Taizeng smiled tolerantly at him.

"If we can’t see them, they can’t see us either" He pointed out reasonably.

"Exactly! We may as well be two ships passing each other in the night!"
The naval officers stared at each other in mutual incomprehension. Lin Taizeng had no particular interest in coming face to face with the Japanese fleet. He was uneasily aware that the vigorous gunnery training, and even the new shells and repairs made over the past two months, could not make up for a decade of neglect. Why the Beyang fleet had not even purchased any new ships since the Sino French war! And the Nanyang fleet…

There was no love lost between them. The northern fleet had refused to take part in the battle against the French ten years ago, poisoning relations between the two regional navies of the Qing. It was only Yuan Shikai's influence at court which had forced the Nanyang fleet, as well as a few spare ships from the other regional navies to relocate to the North, it's home waters patrolled by the Fujian navy.

It made for a massive order of battle


Beyang fleet (front)
Left Wing, left to right
• Jiyuan (2,355t, 15 knots (28 km/h), 2-8.3, 1-5.9, 10MG, 4TT) (Fang Pai-chien) - Fled at start perhaps then collided with Caoyung
• Kwan Chia (1,290t, 16 knots (29.6 km/h), 1-4.7, 4-5, 8MG) (Wu Ching-jung) - Fled at start, ran aground, scuttled
• Zhiyuen (2,300t, 18 knots (33 km/h), 3-8.3, 2-5.9, 16MG, 4TT) (Teng Shih-chang) - Sunk
• Dingyuan (flag, 7,355t, 15 knots (28 km/h), 4-12.2, 2-5.9, 12MG,3TT) (Ding Ruchang & Liu Pu-chan)
Right Wing, left to right
• Zhenyuan (7,430t, 15 knots (28 km/h), 4-12.2, 2-5.9, 12MG, 3TT) (Lin Tai-tseng & McGiffin, Philo) - Left group to join flag. Damaged
• Laiyuan (2,830t, 15 knots (28 km/h), 2-8.3, 2-5.9, 16MG, 4TT) (Chiu Pao-jen) - Aft on fire, damaged
• Jingyuan, 1887 (2,850t, 15 knots (28 km/h), 2-8.3, 2-5.9. 8MG, 4TT) (Lin Yung-sheng) - Caught fire, sank
• Ching Yuen, 1886 (2,300t, 18 knots (33 km/h), 3-8.3, 2-5.9, 16MG, 4TT) (Yeh Tus-kuei) - Stayed back to avoid shelling
• Chaoyong (1,350t, 16 knots (30 km/h), 2-10, 4-4.7, 6MG) (Huang Chien-hsun) - Quickly caught fire, sank or beached
• Yangwei (1,350t, 16 knots (30 km/h), 2-10, 4-4.7, 6MG) (Lin Li-chung) - Quickly caught fire, beached, wreck torpedoed next day
Joined Halfway, front to rear, moved to the right flank
• Pingyuan (2,100t, 12 knots (22 km/h), 1-12.2, 2-6, 8MG, 4TT) (Li Ho-lien)
•Fujing 2,200-ton
•Guangbing (1,000t, 16 knots (30 km/h), 3-4.7, 8MG, 4TT) (Chen Pi-kuang)
•Fulong (torpedo-boat, 128t, 15 knots (28 km/h), MGs, 3TT) (Choy)
•Zuo 1 (torpedo-boat, 69t, 16 knots (30 km/h), MGs, 3TT) (?)

Nanyang fleet (rear)
Cedian Ts'e-tien 策電 iron Rendel gunboat 1876, Mitchell & Co. 319 tons, one 38.5-ton Armstrong gun, two 12-lb guns
Huwei Hu-wei 虎威 iron Rendel gunboat 1876, Mitchell & Co. 319 tons, one 26.5-ton Armstrong gun
Chaowu Ch'ao-wu 超武 composite sloop 1878, Foochow Navy Yard 1,250 tons, 11.5 knots, one 19-cm and four 40-lb guns
Kangji K'ang-chi 康濟 composite sloop 1879, Foochow Navy Yard 1,200 tons, one 7-in MLR, six 4.7-in MLR
Kaiji K'ai-chi 開濟 composite cruiser 1884, Foochow Navy Yard 2,153 tons, 15 knots, two 21-cm and six 12-cmKrupp cannon, 4 Nordenfeldt guns

Nanchen Nan-ch'en 南琛 steel cruiser 1884, Howaldt, Kiel 2,200 tons, 15 knots, two 8-in Armstrong guns, eight 12-cm quickfirers
Nanrui Nan-jui 南瑞 steel cruiser 1884, Howaldt, Kiel 2,200 tons, 15 knots, two 8-in Armstrong guns, eight 12-cm quickfirers
Baomin Pao-min 保民 steel cruiser 1885, Kiangnan Dockyard 1,477 tons, 16 knots, two 200-lb and six 70-lb guns
Jingqing Ching-ch'ing 靖清 composite cruiser 1886, Foochow Navy Yard 1,477 tons, 15 knots, two 15-cm and five 12-cm Krupp cannon
Huantai Huan-t'ai 寰泰 composite cruiser 1887, Foochow Navy Yard 1,477 tons, 15 knots, two 15-cm and five 12-cm Krupp cannon

Unfortunately, the order of battle was incredibly unwieldy, badly coordinated, and often fractious. Worse, with the exception of the Dingyuan and the Zhenyuan all of the Qing ships were outgunned and outclassed by the main Japanese ships- and the twin battleships were slower than their Japanese counterparts. For that matter, so were the lighter Chinese cruisers. Though the Qing combined fleet outmasses the Japanese by nearly 2:1, but the Japanese fleet would be better able to concentrate it's ships in any battle in open waters. It is for this reason that the Admiral had advocated keeping the fleet concentrated at Darien. There, under the protection of the shore emplacements and the minefields, it would be possible to force the Japanese to battle under unfavorable conditions, or else continue funneling in reinforcements to the Army.

This strategy has been overridden by the court and they have been ordered to aggressively block the Japanese fleet's attempt to reinforce its own land army. The british adviser to the fleet William M. Lang had forcefully argued in favor of seeking confortation here, where the Japanese fleet would be hampered by it's transports, and where lookouts on the Archipelgo might provide early warning to the fleet. He had clearly not counted on the Fog though. Run into the Japanese fleet in this and it would be utter chaos!

His Exec, however, is clearly eager for battle. Well, he would hardly have traveled around the world to seek service in a foreign navy if he wasn't.

He's just about to utter a quotation From Sun Tzu about choosing one's battles wisely when the American born Exec drops his jaw and points behind him.

(1) Because of minelaying, shore batteries and watchposts, proximity to supplies and, perhaps most importantly, proximity to repair fascilities. Modern warships were hard to sink, but the proximity of repair fascilities made all the difference in their survivability.
(2) Yamagata is politically outside the new ruling coalition and therefore not in command.
(3) OTL, the Japanese paid for what they took and didn’t stay too long in any one place, lessening the burden on the population. TTL, discipline is laxer, funds fewer, and the advance much slower.
(4) Not QUITE as good TTL.
(5) Order is being rushed due to the cancelation of two ships due to russian reparations.