Let's say they was no Pacific war (acceptation of the Hull note, Oil found in Manchuria, etc etc etc). What will become of Japan?
Japan without WW2
- Thread starter Historyman 14
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Hmm, US still goes to war with Germany. North Africa is OTL for the most part (More English soldiers to fight) War ends around late 1944- early 45.
Main requirement is no embargo in '41. As long as that goes ahead, Japan has no feasible option except to go to war.
The Mahnovite
Banned
When mainland France and Netherlands are occupied, the overseas colonies will be willing to trade with Japan, as it is better than being attacked.
Exactly. Once the embargo is in place,Japan can either a) go to war within six months, or b) cry uncle.
So you need a change in U.S. Administration - maybe FDR dies of a stroke, and the modestly less interventionist Wendell Wilkie gets elected in 1940, and holds back from the embargo. Or, less likely, Tojo somehow restrains the army from occupying French Indochina, the proximate cause of the embargo.
Honestly, however, I think this only delays war, given the dynamics of the Japanese leadership.
Carrier - sub war in the Atlantic
My guess is that if war with the Empire of Japan appears to be a remote possibility, then we would see naval assets such as 1 or 2 carrier task forces from the Pacific moved to the Atlantic.
The fleet, with escort carriers, can be used to provide air cover for freight convoys from the US to the UK. The UK would be better positioned to defend against Germany.
The Atlantic carrier war may be the extent of US involvement in WW II. Without an attack against US territory, the US public is less likely to want to engage in yet another European conflict.
How does it all end? A Soviet dominated Europe or a Soviet / Nazi Germany stalemate in Eastern Europe.
My guess is that if war with the Empire of Japan appears to be a remote possibility, then we would see naval assets such as 1 or 2 carrier task forces from the Pacific moved to the Atlantic.
The fleet, with escort carriers, can be used to provide air cover for freight convoys from the US to the UK. The UK would be better positioned to defend against Germany.
The Atlantic carrier war may be the extent of US involvement in WW II. Without an attack against US territory, the US public is less likely to want to engage in yet another European conflict.
How does it all end? A Soviet dominated Europe or a Soviet / Nazi Germany stalemate in Eastern Europe.