With the recent passing of Brian Mulroney, I think it's appropriate to revisit this topic, one which really hasn't been tackled all that much here on the forum. How would the country and its politics be impacted if Mulroney's constitutional reforms succeeded?
What if the Meech Lake Accord succeeded?
- Thread starter CanadianTory
- Start date
Well, Atlantic and Western Canada would have later wanted to then open up the debate on further senate reform. The choice of Senate Candidates from lists submitted by the Provinces would be a start but they would want the numbers to be reevaluated at least at a later date. This seems to have been Mulroney’s intention as well. However, the requirement for all provinces agreement for further constitutional reform might then keep further Senate reform from going ahead.
It's tough because there's a lot of ways it could play out.
From a political standpoint, the PCs are obviously in much better shape. No Bloc Québécois, which means there's a solid chance they remain Quebec's party of choice, and without being preoccupied with the constitution its possible the Mulroney government spends more time focusing on the economy than they did IOTL. I doubt they win re-election in 92/93 (off the top of my head something like 50-70 seats seems likely, a fantastic result relative to OTL but something that will be viewed ITTL as an absolutely abysmal performance), but they almost certainly keep their status as the main party on the right. Reform probably wins some seats, but I don't think the conditions are there for a breakthrough.
No constitutional headaches could also mean Mulroney pursues the United Nations Secretary-General post in 1991 far more vigorously than he did IOTL - he was interested, and George Bush in particular was really angling for Mulroney to get it. With the Soviet Union falling apart this was probably the only time the job could have gone to such an obvious American ally, but even here it's tough to say whether or not Mulroney could have gotten it.
From a political standpoint, the PCs are obviously in much better shape. No Bloc Québécois, which means there's a solid chance they remain Quebec's party of choice, and without being preoccupied with the constitution its possible the Mulroney government spends more time focusing on the economy than they did IOTL. I doubt they win re-election in 92/93 (off the top of my head something like 50-70 seats seems likely, a fantastic result relative to OTL but something that will be viewed ITTL as an absolutely abysmal performance), but they almost certainly keep their status as the main party on the right. Reform probably wins some seats, but I don't think the conditions are there for a breakthrough.
No constitutional headaches could also mean Mulroney pursues the United Nations Secretary-General post in 1991 far more vigorously than he did IOTL - he was interested, and George Bush in particular was really angling for Mulroney to get it. With the Soviet Union falling apart this was probably the only time the job could have gone to such an obvious American ally, but even here it's tough to say whether or not Mulroney could have gotten it.
First, let's go through the direct effects of the Meech Lake Accord itself entering the Constitution. (Here's a copy of the original communiqué)
-The flashiest part of the Accord was the plainly obvious admission that Quebec constituted a 'distinct society' within Canada. The problem is that this 'distinct society' clause would be considered an interpretive clause in the country's constitution. Effectively, Mulroney had given Quebec another Notwithstanding Clause, a piece of constitutional cover against the Charter of Rights that only they could use. If it's used only as a last resort under extreme circumstnaces, like the Notwithstanding Clause is presently, it could be a useful tool for Quebec to shed light on what it sees as dangers to its identity. If overused to the point where it becomes the norm, the federal government might as well have handed them sovereignty.
-The Accord also ensured that the federal government would need to make agreements with the provinces when setting immigration policy. This probably wouldn't be much of an issue, at least until the mid-tens when a refugee crisis turned immigration into a major political inflection point.
-Under Meech, Senators and Supreme Court justices were to be selected out of lists from each province. Since nowadays both institutions spend their time keeping away from the public eye, the Prime Minister would likely have picked the least controversial of all the choices. Unless the governing party finds itself without any provincial allies, this is unlikely to cause tension.
-The right to opt out of national programs with compensation would be constitutionally enshrined by the Meech Lake Accord, provided the province opting out enacts its own program that meets federal standards. Nowadays this is usually how a federal government puts through a thorny national policy already (see Pricing, Carbon), so little change there.
-Future constitutional amendments would be made harder, but regular First Ministers' Conferences would become mandated. There's no guarantee these meetings will result in anything happening, of course. I predict, rather cynically, that the average Conference will turn into a prolonged press conference, where Premiers and Prime Ministers lay out their positions and engage in 'dialogues' where they trade notes written well in advance. Activists will converge on the meeting site to demand change. ("What do we want? A climate change agreement/Senate reform/reconciliation/childcare! When do we want it? Now!") One big photo-op for all involved.
***
Now, don't worry; Brian Mulroney's still screwed six different ways. He's still in power thanks to an unweldy coalition of francophones and francophobes, he's still only able to mend that rift through egregious amounts of patronage, he's still willing to try for a grand bargain on abortion law, he's still about to step right into a recession and introduce a sales tax. It's possible that Mulroney can't find eight senators from the provinces who are willing to pass the GST, but hardly likely.
And now for the sixty-four-thousand-dollar question: How does this effect the Election of 1993? Well, the Tories are obviously going to hold onto the Quebec nationalists' support. If the party thinks they've got 'em in the bag, they could be willing to trade in the old horse for Campbell or some other new face. If they're worried about holding down Laval, they'll stick with Brian.
The Liberal leadership is David Peterson's for the taking. Chrétien was already having trouble attacking Meech when it wasn't settled law, and the Accord passing would probably mean curtains for his Prime Ministerial prospects. By contrast, Peterson was still on top of the world in Ontario, still a prominent backer of the new constitutional paradigm, and still credible on pocketbook issues like free trade and taxes.
With the Tories having a tighter hold over Quebec, things look a lot better for Dave Barrett's pitch to the NDP. He might win the leadership over Audrey McLaghlin, or even some other former western premier. Bob Rae watches hungrily from the sidelines, waiting for the next election's bloodbath to make his move.
Even without regional parties like the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform party, the election will likely match the contours of the country. The Liberals will take advantage of unemployment and the deficit to dominate in Ontario and the Maritimes. The Tories will sweep outer Quebec, while the New Democrats will nip at their heels in the West. The final results, based on my back-of-a-napkin math:
Liberal Party - 140
Progressive Conservative Party - 110
New Democratic Party - 45
(Reform might win a few seats too, I dunno)
-The flashiest part of the Accord was the plainly obvious admission that Quebec constituted a 'distinct society' within Canada. The problem is that this 'distinct society' clause would be considered an interpretive clause in the country's constitution. Effectively, Mulroney had given Quebec another Notwithstanding Clause, a piece of constitutional cover against the Charter of Rights that only they could use. If it's used only as a last resort under extreme circumstnaces, like the Notwithstanding Clause is presently, it could be a useful tool for Quebec to shed light on what it sees as dangers to its identity. If overused to the point where it becomes the norm, the federal government might as well have handed them sovereignty.
-The Accord also ensured that the federal government would need to make agreements with the provinces when setting immigration policy. This probably wouldn't be much of an issue, at least until the mid-tens when a refugee crisis turned immigration into a major political inflection point.
-Under Meech, Senators and Supreme Court justices were to be selected out of lists from each province. Since nowadays both institutions spend their time keeping away from the public eye, the Prime Minister would likely have picked the least controversial of all the choices. Unless the governing party finds itself without any provincial allies, this is unlikely to cause tension.
-The right to opt out of national programs with compensation would be constitutionally enshrined by the Meech Lake Accord, provided the province opting out enacts its own program that meets federal standards. Nowadays this is usually how a federal government puts through a thorny national policy already (see Pricing, Carbon), so little change there.
-Future constitutional amendments would be made harder, but regular First Ministers' Conferences would become mandated. There's no guarantee these meetings will result in anything happening, of course. I predict, rather cynically, that the average Conference will turn into a prolonged press conference, where Premiers and Prime Ministers lay out their positions and engage in 'dialogues' where they trade notes written well in advance. Activists will converge on the meeting site to demand change. ("What do we want? A climate change agreement/Senate reform/reconciliation/childcare! When do we want it? Now!") One big photo-op for all involved.
***
Now, don't worry; Brian Mulroney's still screwed six different ways. He's still in power thanks to an unweldy coalition of francophones and francophobes, he's still only able to mend that rift through egregious amounts of patronage, he's still willing to try for a grand bargain on abortion law, he's still about to step right into a recession and introduce a sales tax. It's possible that Mulroney can't find eight senators from the provinces who are willing to pass the GST, but hardly likely.
And now for the sixty-four-thousand-dollar question: How does this effect the Election of 1993? Well, the Tories are obviously going to hold onto the Quebec nationalists' support. If the party thinks they've got 'em in the bag, they could be willing to trade in the old horse for Campbell or some other new face. If they're worried about holding down Laval, they'll stick with Brian.
The Liberal leadership is David Peterson's for the taking. Chrétien was already having trouble attacking Meech when it wasn't settled law, and the Accord passing would probably mean curtains for his Prime Ministerial prospects. By contrast, Peterson was still on top of the world in Ontario, still a prominent backer of the new constitutional paradigm, and still credible on pocketbook issues like free trade and taxes.
With the Tories having a tighter hold over Quebec, things look a lot better for Dave Barrett's pitch to the NDP. He might win the leadership over Audrey McLaghlin, or even some other former western premier. Bob Rae watches hungrily from the sidelines, waiting for the next election's bloodbath to make his move.
Even without regional parties like the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform party, the election will likely match the contours of the country. The Liberals will take advantage of unemployment and the deficit to dominate in Ontario and the Maritimes. The Tories will sweep outer Quebec, while the New Democrats will nip at their heels in the West. The final results, based on my back-of-a-napkin math:
Liberal Party - 140
Progressive Conservative Party - 110
New Democratic Party - 45
(Reform might win a few seats too, I dunno)
The Liberal's response to all this would be interesting. Would they really dump Chretien before the '93 election?