Moments when Japan perhaps threw away victory at Guadalcanal.

There are four I can see and if carried out, which of them had the greatest likelihood of succeeding?

One: immediately after crushing the four cruisers at Savo Island, Gunichi Mikawa takes his task group to sink the invasion transports off Lunga Point.

Two: before the arrival of the planes off of the USS LONG ISLAND, Japan seizes control of IronBottom Sound and does not permit Henderson Field becoming operational.

Three: after the nearly successful Oct. 14th bombardment by KONGO & HARUNA, KIRISHIMA & HIEI go in for a coup de grace the following night

Four: after the 2nd Naval Battle of Guadalcanal, KONGO & HARUNA go immediately in for a bombardment as followup to the one of a month prior.

Plus any other I might have missed.

I believe the most likely of the above was the first one where most (if not all) of the transports and cargo ships end up being lost. Under the circumstances, the Marines ashore were pretty well screwed if the Japanese landed a force big enough to challenge them.
 
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There are four I can see and if carried out, which of them had the greatest likelihood of succeeding?

One: immediately after crushing the four cruisers at Savo Island, Gunichi Mikawa takes his task group to sink the invasion transports off Lunga Point.

Two: before the arrival of the planes off of the USS LONG ISLAND, Japan seizes control of IronBottom Sound and does not permit Henderson Field becoming operational.

Three: after the nearly successful Oct. 14th bombardment by KONGO & HARUNA, KIRISHIMA & HIEI go in for a coup de grace the following night

Four: after the 2nd Naval Battle of Guadalcanal, KONGO & HARUNA go immediately in for a bombardment as followup to the one of a month prior.

Plus any other I might have missed.

I believe the most likely of the above was the first one where most (if not all) of the transports and cargo ships end up being lost. Under the circumstances, the Marines ashore were pretty well screwed if the Japanese landed a force big enough to challenge them.
Agree completely Steel that the first POD was the one that had the greatest chance of succeeding- with the other three, I think(hope?)that the Marines would have somehow hung on(& the longer they did, the
smaller the odds of a Japanese victory, since, as did indeed did happen there IOTL, any battle of attrition the US was bound to win).
 
One: immediately after crushing the four cruisers at Savo Island, Gunichi Mikawa takes his task group to sink the invasion transports off Lunga Point.
What Mikawa himself had to say (From: The Japanese Navy in World War II (pp. 242-244). Naval Institute Press.) on the subject when he was asked to review one of his staff's articles on the Battle of Savo:
[Since Admiral Mikawa had been in command of the Japanese forces engaged in the Battle of Savo Island, he was requested to read Captain Ohmae’s article for accuracy. His comments follow:]​
I have read Toshikazu Ohmae’s article, “The Battle of Savo Island,” and find it well written and complete. It covers all the important facts of the battle as I remember them. There are a few points, however, that I wish to emphasize.​
Upon my arrival at Rabaul, in late July 1942, as commander in chief of the Eighth Fleet, there was no indication that the quiet Solomons were soon to be the scene of fierce battle. Nevertheless, I recognized the mobile capability of U.S. carrier task forces and, accordingly, ordered my heavy cruisers to the safer rear base at Kavieng rather than Rabaul.​
It was a serious inconvenience and a shortcoming that my command extended only to sea and land operations in the area. Air operations were entirely outside of my responsibility and control. I found, for example, that there was no program or plan for providing planes to the new base at Guadalcanal, and there was nothing that I could do about it.​
As soon as the U.S. landings at Guadalcanal were reported on 7 August, and the invasion strength was apparent, I determined to employ all the forces at my command to destroy the enemy ships. My choice of a night action to accomplish this purpose was made because I had no air support on which to rely—and reliable air support was vital to anything but a night action. On the other hand, I had complete confidence in my ships and knew that the Japanese navy’s emphasis on night battle training and practice would ensure our chances of success in such an action, even without air support.​
My two major concerns for this operation were that enemy carriers might repeat against my ships their successes of the Battle of Midway before we reached the battle area, and that our approach to Guadalcanal might be hindered by the poorly charted waters of the Solomons. But both of these worries were dispelled once we had passed the scouting lines of enemy destroyers to the west of Savo Island, and I was then sure of success in the night battle.​
The element of surprise worked to our advantage and enabled us to destroy every target taken under fire. I was greatly impressed, however, by the courageous action of the northern group of U.S. cruisers. They fought back heroically despite heavy damage sustained before they were ready for battle. Had they had even a few minutes’ warning of our approach, the results of the action would have been quite different.​
Prior to action I had ordered the jettisoning of all shipboard flammables—such as aviation fuel and depth charges—to reduce the chance of fire from shell hits. While my ships sustained no fires, we observed that U.S. ships, immediately after they were hit, burst into flames that were soon uncontrollable.​
The reasons given by the author for not attacking the transports are the reasons that influenced my decision at the time (below). Knowing now that the transports were vital to the American foothold on Guadalcanal, knowing now that our army would be unable to drive American forces out of the Solomons, and knowing now that the carrier task force was not in position to attack my ships, it is easy to say that some other decision would have been wiser. But I believe today, as then, that my decision, based on the information known to me, was not a wrong one.​
[signed] G. MIKAWA​

---

From Toshikazu Ohmae’s article, “The Battle of Savo Island,”:

Meanwhile, Admiral Mikawa and his staff had been making a rapid study of the situation in order to determine our next move. They concluded that the force should withdraw immediately. This decision was reached on the basis of the following considerations:​
1) The force was at 0030 divided into three groups, each acting individually, with the flagship in the rear. For them all to assemble and reform in the darkness it would be necessary to slow down considerably. From their position to the northwest of Savo Island it would take thirty minutes to slow down and assemble, a half hour more to regain formation, another half hour to regain battle speed, and then another hour to again reach the vicinity of the enemy anchorage. The two and a half hours required would thus place our reentry into the battle area at 0300, just one hour before sunrise.​
2) Based on radio intelligence of the previous evening, we knew that there were enemy carriers about one hundred miles southeast of Guadalcanal. As a result of our night action these would be moving toward the island by this time, and to remain in the area by sunrise would mean that we would only meet the fate our carriers had suffered at Midway.
3) By withdrawing immediately we would probably still be pursued and attacked by the closing enemy carrier force, but by leaving at once we could get farther to the north before they struck. The enemy carriers might thus be lured within reach of our land-based air forces at Rabaul.
In making this decision we were influenced by the belief that a great victory had been achieved in the night action. We were also influenced by the thought of the army’s conviction that there would be no difficulty about driving the enemy forces out of Guadalcanal.​

Admiral Mikawa received the opinion of his staff and, at 0023, gave the order, “All forces withdraw.” There was no questioning of this order on the bridge of the Chokai. The signal went out by blinker, “Force in line ahead, course 320 degrees, speed thirty knots.” The Chokai hoisted a speed light and withdrew. Shortly after the signal we sighted the Furutaka’s identification lamp in the distance, and the battle was over. Our estimated dawn position was radioed to Rabaul in hope that Eleventh Air Fleet planes might be able to strike any pursuing enemy carrier.​
The reasons for our early retirement were based in part on the Japanese navy’s “decisive battle” doctrine that destruction of the enemy fleet brings an automatic constriction of his command of the sea. The concept of air power (both sea-based and land-based), which invalidates this doctrine, was not fully appreciated by us at this time, nor were we fully convinced of it until the summer of 1944, and then it was too late. Another reason behind our decision to withdraw was the lack of a unified command of our air and surface forces. Under the circumstances, we in the Eighth Fleet ships could simply not expect of our land-based planes the degree of cooperation required to cover us in a dawn retirement.​

The Japanese Navy in World War II (p. 242). Naval Institute Press. Kindle Edition.
 
Perhaps it can be added actually detecting the US invasion force on the 6th. OTL iirc they came within inches of doing so, but because of heavy overcast the scouts from Rabaul just missed the slow plodding invasion convoy.
A day or even half a day warning would have made all kinds of differences, the Guadalcanal garrison is alerted, the planes in the air at dawn on the 7th, the rikkos at Rabaul armed with torpedoes on the 7th, etc.etc.
Just killing or crippling a single carrier this early in the operation could also have made all kinds of differences to subsequent events.
Could Mikawa have attacked during the night of the 7/8th, if the japanese find the invasion convoy on the 6th, or it's too early?
 
Also, i wanted to ask more knowledgeable folk. How many torpedoes would have taken to sink a modern BB such as Washington or South Dakota? In the Noember battles they were incredibly lucky, at least 30 (!)torpedoes were launched at South Dakota and at least 16 at Washington, but none hit. Were their underwater defences better or worse than those of Prince of Wales, which was sunk by 4 torpedoes?
 
Also, i wanted to ask more knowledgeable folk. How many torpedoes would have taken to sink a modern BB such as Washington or South Dakota? In the Noember battles they were incredibly lucky, at least 30 (!)torpedoes were launched at South Dakota and at least 16 at Washington, but none hit. Were their underwater defences better or worse than those of Prince of Wales, which was sunk by 4 torpedoes?
Well completely different circumstances, missing torpedoes in a knife-fight night action vs being tailed by aircraft in broad daylight without air cover. It also helped that Lee (Washington) was one of the best battleship commanders in the war.

It's hard to see the USN willingly commit battleships and carriers if they didn't have air cover, Watchtower was an optional meeting engagement that the USN choose due to the bad logistics and airfield available-you take the airfield out and Fletcher would've followed his orders to conserve his fleet much earlier-marines are for the most part much faster to train and more plentiful than carriers at this point.
 
Also, i wanted to ask more knowledgeable folk. How many torpedoes would have taken to sink a modern BB such as Washington or South Dakota? In the Noember battles they were incredibly lucky, at least 30 (!)torpedoes were launched at South Dakota and at least 16 at Washington, but none hit. Were their underwater defences better or worse than those of Prince of Wales, which was sunk by 4 torpedoes?
Depends on any number of factors. Prince of Wales was sunk in large part because of a lucky hit near the propeller shafts. Japanese shipboard torpedoes were also much more powerful than air dropped ones. According to a 1944 BuShips report, "Vulnerability of US Naval Vessels to attack by air-borne weapons," an Iowa class battleships was assigned the following probabilities of sinking assuming torpedoes with 300 kg warheads and a worst case scenario of simultaneous hits on one side spaced 60 feet apart:

1 hit: 1%
2 hits: 2%
3 hits: 10%
4 hits: 40%
5 hits: 70%
6 hits: 90%

South Dakota and North Carolina class BBs were smaller and therefore more prone to sinking than Iowas, and Long Lance torpedoes had 1,000 lb warheads. I would guesstimate something like 4 hits in any arrangement would seriously imperil the ship, and 6 or more hits would probably be fatal.
----------------------------

Something that may also be pertinent to this discussion, awhile ago I attempted a statistical analysis of IJN ships vs torpedoes to get an idea of how much it took, on average, to sink them. There's still a lot of variables to account for (for example, the type of ship, location of the hits, warhead size, mixed damage from bombs/shells/torpedoes, selectively reducing numbers due to "overkill" on ships in sinking condition, etc.),* but I figured it would be easier than trying it for Allied ships given the huge diversity in the data. Here's what I found:

Graph 1: Torpedoes vs IJN ships of all classes (CL, CA, BB, CVE, CVL, CV).
Y-Axis: Tons of shipping sunk per torpedo hit (standard displacement in long tons - 2,240 lbs/1,016 kg. 1 unit = 2,000 tons)
X-Axis: Ship displacement (standard, in units of 2,000 long tons)
Red: middle estimate
Green/Blue: upper/lower 95% boundaries (2.5% cutoffs either way), with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors
AQc8MLu.png

Number of observations = 46
F(1,44) = 8.94
Prob>F = 0.0046
R-squared = 0.2327
Root MSE = 5.0749
p-value x-variable = 0.005 (t = 2.99)
p-value intercept = 0.000 (t = 4.38)
Upper 95% boundary (top 2.5% cutoff)(torpedoes more effective): y = 0.3062806x + 4.730419 (x = units of 1000 long tons)
Upper 70% boundary (top 15% cutoff): 0.2471295136x + 4.01548112
Middle estimate slope: y = 0.1829461x + 3.239719
Lower 70% boundary (bottom 15% cutoff): y = 0.1187626864x + 2.46395688
Lower 95% boundary (bottom 2.5% cutoff)(torpedoes less effective): y = 0.0596116x + 1.749019

Table 1: Torpedoes vs IJN ships of all classes (CL, CA, BB, CVE, CVL, CV)
(Round to nearest whole number, upper and lower boundaries refer to numbers of hits, not torpedo effectiveness/2000 tons as in the above graph)
Standard Displacement (long tons)Lower 2.5%Lower 15%Average HitsUpper 15%Upper 2.5%
5,0000.800.951.201.642.44
6,0000.911.091.381.892.85
8,0001.111.331.702.343.59
10,0001.281.541.972.744.26
12,0001.431.722.213.094.87
15,0001.611.942.513.535.67
17,5001.732.102.723.856.27
20,0001.842.232.904.136.80
25,0002.022.453.204.607.72
30,0002.162.623.444.988.48
35,0002.272.763.635.299.13
40,0002.362.883.795.549.68
45,0002.432.973.925.7610.15
50,0002.493.054.045.9510.57
55,0002.553.124.146.1110.94
60,0002.603.184.226.2611.27
65,0002.643.244.306.3811.56

Removing the fragile carriers from the mix, this is the resulting graph for "tons destroyed" per torpedo hit vs. cruisers and battleships. The same rules apply here as in graph 1.

Graph 2: Torpedoes vs IJN Ships (CL, CA, BB)
mgUTGD3.png

Number of observations = 30
F(1,28) = 5.64
Prob>F = 0.0246
R-squared = 0.2643
Root MSE = 3.157
p-value x-variable = 0.025 (t = 2.38)
p-value intercept = 0.000 (t = 6.30)
Upper 2.5% cutoff (torpedoes more effective): y = 0.2173482x + 3.847125 (x = units of 1000 long tons)
Upper 15% cutoff: y = 0.1685903304x + 3.389571496
Middle estimate: y = 0.1167081x + 2.902699
Lower 15% cutoff: y = 0.0648258696x + 2.415826504
Lower 2.5% cutoff (torpedoes less effective): y = 0.016068x + 1.958274

Table 2: Torpedoes vs IJN ships (CL, CA, BB)
Standard Displacement (long tons)Lower 2.5%Lower 15%Average HitsUpper 15%Upper 2.5%
5,0001.011.181.431.822.45
6,0001.161.361.672.142.92
8,0001.431.692.092.733.83
10,0001.661.972.463.264.72
12,0001.862.222.793.765.58
15,0002.112.533.224.436.82
17,5002.292.763.544.937.81
20,0002.442.963.825.398.77
25,0002.693.294.306.1910.59
30,0002.893.554.686.8812.29
35,0003.063.775.017.4713.89
40,0003.193.955.287.9915.38
45,0003.304.105.528.4416.78
50,0003.404.235.728.8418.10
55,0003.484.345.909.2019.35
60,0003.554.446.069.5220.53
65,0003.624.536.209.8021.65

* Data modifications made:
1.) Yamato and Musashi were treated as receiving only 9 torpedo hits apiece, the point where Yamato's executive officer assessed the ship had taken fatal damage. This is conservative, since all of Yamato's hits were portside.
2.) Cruisers Isuzu and Chikuma had their totals reduced to 3 and 5 respectively to minimize "overkill"
3.) Carrier Zuikaku's total is reduced to 4 (from 7, should have been from 6 as one was a dud)
5.) Carrier Shoho's total is reduced to 5 (from 7, the first 5 hits were essentially simultaneous)
 
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Geon

Donor
I had a thread that discussed the aftermath of the Battle of Savo Island. Here is the link to the brief discussion there.


I am still of a mind that Mikawa could have won a substantial victory against the USN if he had simply bored on ahead and gone after the transports. Perhaps not doing enough damage to cause a withdrawal but sufficient damage to cause the land battle to drag on for months.
 
I am beginning to believe that where Mikawa might have had greater success was right after going through the allied Southern Force. This was a perfect moment to split his forces into one group to continue straight ahead to where the transports were anchored and the 2nd group to turn left to take on the Northern Force. Obviously not so good of a chance his ships will come away from the battle without loses but this is war and loses are very often necessary to achieve victory.
 
Eastern Solomons, when Nagumo somehow fails to get his 36 torpedo bombers onto the US carriers, which had heavily attacked the Ryujo, and therefore were vulnerable.
Yes these torpedo planes which completely missed the US task force would have very likely killed the ENTERPRISE because at the moment they would have found her she was unable to be steered but then I wonder if the carrier had been lost if that would have changed the Guadalcanal campaign? Not all that long after we lost the WASP and managed to jeep Cactus in our hands.
 
Eastern Solomons, when Nagumo somehow fails to get his 36 torpedo bombers onto the US carriers, which had heavily attacked the Ryujo, and therefore were vulnerable.
And/or failing to get all his 54 D3As onto the americans in one go, as they could and should. The 54 D3As and 36 B5Ns would have killed Enterprise and Saratoga there and then with 90% probability imo.
 
Mikawa still wouldn't have a cakewalk when attacking the transports. The Australia, Hobart and an Atlanta class CLAA were closer into the transports and, I think, 4 more USN DDs.

While not a tactically formed formation, at least this group wouldn't be caught by surprise.
 
Mikawa still wouldn't have a cakewalk when attacking the transports. The Australia, Hobart and an Atlanta class CLAA were closer into the transports and, I think, 4 more USN DDs.

While not a tactically formed formation, at least this group wouldn't be caught by surprise.
That is why I said he would likely take losses in doing so, but when you think about how confusion was the prevailing condition for the allied vessels that night it could have become far uglier than it was OTL.
 
Depends on any number of factors. Prince of Wales was sunk in large part because of a lucky hit near the propeller shafts. Japanese shipboard torpedoes were also much more powerful than air dropped ones. According to a 1944 BuShips report, "Vulnerability of US Naval Vessels to attack by air-borne weapons," an Iowa class battleships was assigned the following probabilities of sinking assuming torpedoes with 300 kg warheads and a worst case scenario of simultaneous hits on one side spaced 60 feet apart:

1 hit: 1%
2 hits: 2%
3 hits: 10%
4 hits: 40%
5 hits: 70%
6 hits: 90%

South Dakota and North Carolina class BBs were smaller and therefore more prone to sinking than Iowas, and Long Lance torpedoes had 1,000 lb warheads. I would guesstimate something like 4 hits in any arrangement would seriously imperil the ship, and 6 or more hits would probably be fatal.
----------------------------

Something that may also be pertinent to this discussion, awhile ago I attempted a statistical analysis of IJN ships vs torpedoes to get an idea of how much it took, on average, to sink them. There's still a lot of variables to account for (for example, the type of ship, location of the hits, warhead size, mixed damage from bombs/shells/torpedoes, selectively reducing numbers due to "overkill" on ships in sinking condition, etc.),* but I figured it would be easier than trying it for Allied ships given the huge diversity in the data. Here's what I found:

Graph 1: Torpedoes vs IJN ships of all classes (CL, CA, BB, CVE, CVL, CV).
Y-Axis: Tons of shipping sunk per torpedo hit (standard displacement in long tons - 2,240 lbs/1,016 kg. 1 unit = 1,000 tons)
X-Axis: Ship displacement (standard, in units of 1,000 long tons)
Red: middle estimate
Green/Blue: upper/lower 95% boundaries (2.5% cutoffs either way), with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors
AQc8MLu.png

Number of observations = 46
F(1,44) = 8.94
Prob>F = 0.0046
R-squared = 0.2327
Root MSE = 5.0749
p-value x-variable = 0.005 (t = 2.99)
p-value intercept = 0.000 (t = 4.38)
Upper 95% boundary (top 2.5% cutoff)(torpedoes more effective): y = 0.3062806x + 4.730419
Upper 70% boundary (top 15% cutoff): 0.2471295136x + 4.01548112
Middle estimate slope: y = 0.1829461x + 3.239719
Lower 70% boundary (bottom 15% cutoff): y = 0.1187626864x + 2.46395688
Lower 95% boundary (bottom 2.5% cutoff)(torpedoes less effective): y = 0.0596116x + 1.749019

Table 1: Torpedoes vs IJN ships of all classes (CL, CA, BB, CVE, CVL, CV)
(Round to nearest whole number, upper and lower boundaries refer to numbers of hits, not torpedo effectiveness/1000 tons as in the above graph)
Standard Displacement (long tons)Lower 2.5%Lower 15%Average HitsUpper 15%Upper 2.5%
5,0000.800.951.201.642.44
6,0000.911.091.381.892.85
8,0001.111.331.702.343.59
10,0001.281.541.972.744.26
12,0001.431.722.213.094.87
15,0001.611.942.513.535.67
17,5001.732.102.723.856.27
20,0001.842.232.904.136.80
25,0002.022.453.204.607.72
30,0002.162.623.444.988.48
35,0002.272.763.635.299.13
40,0002.362.883.795.549.68
45,0002.432.973.925.7610.15
50,0002.493.054.045.9510.57
55,0002.553.124.146.1110.94
60,0002.603.184.226.2611.27
65,0002.643.244.306.3811.56

Removing the fragile carriers from the mix, the is the resulting graph for "tons destroyed" per torpedo hit vs. cruisers and battleships. The same rules apply here as in graph 1.

Graph 2: Torpedoes vs IJN Ships (CL, CA, BB)
mgUTGD3.png

Number of observations = 30
F(1,28) = 5.64
Prob>F = 0.0246
R-squared = 0.2643
Root MSE = 3.157
p-value x-variable = 0.025 (t = 2.38)
p-value intercept = 0.000 (t = 6.30)
Upper 2.5% cutoff (torpedoes more effective): y = 0.2173482x + 3.847125
Upper 15% cutoff: y = 0.1685903304x + 3.389571496
Middle estimate: y = 0.1167081x + 2.902699
Lower 15% cutoff: y = 0.0648258696x + 2.415826504
Lower 2.5% cutoff (torpedoes less effective): y = 0.016068x + 1.958274

Table 2: Torpedoes vs IJN ships (CL, CA, BB)
Standard Displacement (long tons)Lower 2.5%Lower 15%Average HitsUpper 15%Upper 2.5%
5,0001.011.181.431.822.45
6,0001.161.361.672.142.92
8,0001.431.692.092.733.83
10,0001.661.972.463.264.72
12,0001.862.222.793.765.58
15,0002.112.533.224.436.82
17,5002.292.763.544.937.81
20,0002.442.963.825.398.77
25,0002.693.294.306.1910.59
30,0002.893.554.686.8812.29
35,0003.063.775.017.4713.89
40,0003.193.955.287.9915.38
45,0003.304.105.528.4416.78
50,0003.404.235.728.8418.10
55,0003.484.345.909.2019.35
60,0003.554.446.069.5220.53
65,0003.624.536.209.8021.65

* Data modifications made:
1.) Yamato and Musashi were treated as receiving only 9 torpedo hits apiece, the point where Yamato's executive officer assessed the ship had taken fatal damage. This is conservative, since all of Yamato's hits were portside.
2.) Cruisers Isuzu and Chikuma had their totals reduced to 3 and 5 respectively to minimize "overkill"
3.) Carrier Zuikaku's total is reduced to 4 (from 7, should have been from 6 as one was a dud)
5.) Carrier Shoho's total is reduced to 5 (from 7, the first 5 hits were essentially simultaneous)
Thanks for the very interesting info. Fwiw this is also a very interesting study of Long Lance hit rate.
http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-067.php
At the average hit rate of 6% that would have meant 1 hit on Washington and 2 on South Dakota, enough to keep them out of combat for months. However if the japanese have a good day, based on hit rates two and even 3 times better they historicaly achieved in 1942 on several occasions, that would mean 2-3 hits on Washington (enough to severely cripple it) and 4-6 on South Dakota, enough to sink it. That would have evened out Kirishima's loss.

Speaking of other scenarios, what happens if Goto is not surprised at Cape Esperance? He had plenty of time and chances to avoid that. If he managed to let loose his torpedos and open fire before or just as the americans did, at least the two forces would have bludgeoned eachother to death, Furutaka probably taking one or two americans cruisers with her. This presumably affecting subsequent actions since the US cruisers are lost (i need to study the battle more closely to see the possible effects).
 
So if the transports are mauled that same night and those that survive make tracks, how quickly can the Japanese capitalize on their huge victory by one, getting and keeping a fleet in IronBottom Sound before planes arrive at Henderson Field and two, getting troops ashore from Rabaul or wherever they can pull them from?

Next to ask is how long does it take for the USN to put together a strong enough force to try to rescue the marines stranded on Guadalcanal figuring they will need to fight their way in?

If this comes off then how are the fleet carriers deployed and used on each side figuring there would be no Eastern Solomons?
 
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Mikawa was afraid on US carrier planes hitting his ships the morning following Savo Island which begs to ask where that Spirit of Bushido was at that moment? Was he not compelled to attack until he and his forces were either victorious or dead? After dealing with the southern group, the American transports were already close to being within range to take under fire plus they were sitting at anchor unable to maneouver. 15minutes at 25 knots and he is in amongst then at point blank range! Even if he is hit on the way out he has plastered those transports thoroughly and dies a warriors death in battle or was Mikawa not really such a samurai afterall?
 
So if the transports are mauled that same night and those that survive make tracks, how quickly can the Japanese capitalize on their huge victory by one, getting and keeping a fleet in IronBottom Sound before planes arrive at Henderson Field and two, getting troops ashore from Rabaul or wherever they can pull them from?
Not any faster than they did. Mikawa's force needed repair work before being ready to sortie again, and heavy units from Japan and Truk can't arrive any sooner than Eastern Solomons. Similarly, the best the Japanese can do for ground forces on such short notice is Ichiki's regiment and that battalion of SNLF.
 
Mikawa was afraid on US carrier planes hitting his ships the morning following Savo Island which begs to ask where that Spirit of Bushido was at that moment? Was he not compelled to attack until he and his forces were either victorious or dead? After dealing with the southern group, the American transports were already close to being within range to take under fire plus they were sitting at anchor unable to maneouver. 15minutes at 25 knots and he is in amongst then at point blank range! Even if he is hit on the way out he has plastered those transports thoroughly and dies a warriors death in battle or was Mikawa not really such a samurai afterall?
He did lose one CA before he got home. As commander he is responsible for preserving his force, the only naval forces in theater at the time. Luring the US carriers northward closer to Rabaul based bombers is a worthwhile goal.
 
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