WI: Napoleon commits suicide after the Treaty of Fontainebleau

Following a narrow escape from Russian capture, Napoleon always carried a suicide pill that he could use in case he was captured, but its potency weakened with age and when he tried to take it after the Treaty of Fontainebleau he survived. What if it somehow still killed him? How would this affect world history?
 
Allied Policy was settled wrt to France in 1 MARCH 1814 at Chaumont, basically rolling France back to its pre-revolutionary borders BUT not necessarily restoring the Bourbons.

In fact, these terms were offered to Napoleon who rejected them and the war continued.
Only then did restoring the Bourbons become Allied policy.

iOTL of course
  • on March 31, Paris fell to the allies
  • on April 2, Napoleon was deposed by order of the Senate
  • On April 3, at Fontainebleau, his generals refused his orders to attack towards Paris.
  • on April 4 Napoleon abdicated, but in favour of his 3-year-old son, but of course, the Allies would not accept that (even Austria though Boneys Austrian "wife" would have been regent)
  • On April 6, Bonaparte abdicates unconditionally
  • On April 8, Bonaparte finally sends plenipotentiaries to negotiate but only for his personal terms NOT national matters.
  • On April 11, formal terms are signed in Paris
  • on April 12, they are brought to Bonaparte (still at Fontainebleau) to ratify
  • in the early hours of April 13, Boney takes his poison
  • on April 13, Boney recovers and ratifies all the terms
So if Boney dies that night very little will change immediately

The substantive matters already been settled
and since it's clearly by his own hand, in a place the Allies have no power no pro-Bonaparte propaganda.
 
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Bonapartiste legend will have Napoleon as never surrendering before the Allies. His "betrayal" by the generals and others will be the French version of the "stab in the back" myth. His tomb will become a focus for the veterans.

If anything this makes it more not less likely that a Bonapartiste restoration happens - maybe sometime in the 1830's rather than the 1850's. Perhaps no Louis Phillipe but a Napoleon Louis (dodging measles) instead in 1830.
 
If Napoléon successfully commits suicide, there'll be no 100 Days, which will mean that France will not be forced to sign the new, far less favourable, 1815 Treaty of Paris, which had more punitive terms than the 1814 one. France would not have had to pay 700 million francs in indemnities, and the country's borders wouldn't have been reduced to their 1790 status, rather than 1792 as in the previous treaty.

France wouldn't have been occupied by 1.2 million foreign soldiers; with said occupation continued until 1818, by around 200,000 soldiers under the command of the Duke of Wellington, and France wouldn't have had to pay the costs of their accommodation and rations, on top of the reparations.

The promise of tax cuts, prominent in 1814, which failed to materialize because of those payments IOTL, could have been implemented. There also wouldn't have been the second White Terror and, among others, Maréchal Ney could have continued to serve his country. The legacy of this failure, and of the second White Terror, left Louis XVIII with a formidable opposition IOTL.
 
(even Austria though Boneys Austrian "wife"

Why the quotations? She was legally his wife.

The promise of tax cuts, prominent in 1814, which failed to materialize because of those payments IOTL, could have been implemented. There also wouldn't have been the second White Terror and, among others, Maréchal Ney could have continued to serve his country. The legacy of this failure, and of the second White Terror, left Louis XVIII with a formidable opposition IOTL.

Louis was facing significant opposition from the start though, which aided Napoléon's return greatly. I would argue actually that the Hundred Days ended up strengthening Louis' rule as it made him look like the best option for peace and stability.
 
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Nothing changes immediately, but the Congress of Vienna will still have to run its course and the divisions between the former allies will come to fore as they did IOTL: I'm not sure that without the presence of an alive Napoleon exiled to Elba the most significant issues (Saxony for example, but also Naples and in general the arrangement of Poland and Italy) will be settled as they were in 1815. There is even a (small) danger of Russia and Prussia going to war against Austria, and in such a case who knows what might happen (British and French interventions on the Austrian side would be quite assured but the problem everyone has is with money).
Not to mention that the death of Napoleon might avoid (or at least reduce) the presence of occupying troops in France, with the possibility that the restoration of Louis XVIII might not last very long.
 
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