Lincoln was only able to legally justify the emancipation proclamation due to the long war. Luck could hav gone otherwise.
So what would happen?
So what would happen?
If the CSA loses early how long does slavery last
- Thread starter Derek Jackson
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Fsci123
Banned
First you would have to define loosing... If a civil war is fought and the Union wins immediately then you might see something similar to the reconstruction. Southern democrats would be sacked and state governments disolved. Probably some ammendement passed guaranteeing the gradual elimination of slavery(ie all children of slaves are free)...possibly with some sort of compensation for the slave owners.
If the civil war is never fought and the confederacy comes and goes peacefully.......basically seceding, making demands, and getting those demands met through a constitutional ammendment, then rejoining the union without firing a shot. Then slavery will expand westward of southward. The slavery question would be answered until the next crisis or until a revolt topples the south. This could go on until the 1920s imo.
If the civil war is never fought and the confederacy comes and goes peacefully.......basically seceding, making demands, and getting those demands met through a constitutional ammendment, then rejoining the union without firing a shot. Then slavery will expand westward of southward. The slavery question would be answered until the next crisis or until a revolt topples the south. This could go on until the 1920s imo.
Slavery was morally repugnant, but it was also Constitutional. Without being able to justify abolition as a necessity to win the war, it would take a Constitutional Amendment to end slavery, and that would not happen quickly. Slavery was firmly embedded in period southern culture, with even most white people who did not own slaves supporting slavery for social reasons. Few whites in the free states were abolitionists. If the northern tier of slaveholding states ended slavery as quickly as the northern states had ended it, then Delaware, Maryland, Kentucky, and Missouri probably would have ended slavery by the 1940s. That's enough free states to pass an abolition amendment, but fear of triggering another Civil War, apathy about the fate of slaves, and unwillingness to pay for compensated emancipation would probably add at least a couple decades before any Emancipation Amendment had a chance of becoming law.
takerma
Banned
Let's say US Army is reformed some time in 1850s, and as war starts crushes Confederates in a lightning campaign and takes capital. I don't think reconstruction even in weak form as OTL happens. So how long? another 20 years? Sounds about right.
War never actually happens, I can see it lasting to 20th century in some form, probably done before 1910 but who knows
War never actually happens, I can see it lasting to 20th century in some form, probably done before 1910 but who knows
Realistically.....with a POD that late, I honestly can't see slavery surviving much past 1885 at the worst, especially not considering how much abolitionism had been able to develop over the past decade plus prior to it, not to mention the 1860 election having been a vital turning point in U.S. history. In fact, there's actually a fairly good chance it ends by ~1865/66.
What counts as "abolition"?
Might something like the Black Codes continue well into the 20C?
Might something like the Black Codes continue well into the 20C?
History Learner
Banned
They essentially did in the South until the 1960s (70s in some cases), and for quite some time in the North as well (Can't remember when, exactly). On the whole, abolitionism was a pretty rare deal up until the war had gone on long enough to justify; instead, most of the North was just "Free Soil" for the most part.
How do you get enough states to vote up an Emancipation Amendment in 1865? Or even 1885?
Well, for one, I don't think the seceding states would be readmitted right away even if the war ended in 1862-63, so their protests wouldn't count for beans. And also, it wouldn't be that hard to convince the border states to go along with the scheme(esp. not Maryland and Delaware.); it might result in some sort of delay compared to OTL, but almost certainly not much longer beyond 1885 with that POD.
Come again!
OTL, Delaware never abolished slavery. She clung onto it until the 13th Amendment did so in Dec 1865.
This is actually true, but almost certainly more by historical happenstance than any real devotion to the Perfidious Institution.
I wouldn't be so sure.
Istr reading (maybe in Bruce Catton's Terrible Swift Sword) that in 1862 Lincoln floated a trial balloon about compensated emancipation in the loyal border states, and specifically approached Delaware as a place to start, given how few slaves it had. But in spite of this, Delaware politicians didn't want to know. Despite having only a modest financial interest in slavery, they were stubbornly reluctant to let go of it altogether.
Well, well, I must say, that's a heck of a stunner if indeed true, Mike; I'll definitely be sure to try to check out that out for myself. (Hopefully I can find it on JSTOR or something.)
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