KMT exiled to Burma and Indochina

Strategos' Risk

President Chiang Kai-shek instructed him to rebuild his former 13th army and defend his home province, Yunnan, from Communist attacks. By the time that Communist forces had taken the mainland in 1949, Li had already withdrawn his armies south and west, into Thailand and the Shan states of Northern Burma. When Burma declared independence in 1948, Li established an independent Shan regime for his "Anti-Communist National Salvation Army". From these bases, Li's units continued to carry out guerrilla attacks against the Communist authorities in Yunnan.[1]

Nationalist forces from Yunnan also attempted to move into French Indo-China, but these troops were quickly disarmed and arrested by the French. The troops which moved into Burma initially settled around Tachilek, in the state of Kengtung, near the Thai border. The troops who moved there under Li joined earlier Nationalist troops who had remained in the area after fighting the Japanese in World War II. Following Li's withdrawal to this region, Li reorganized all available Nationalist forces in the region, placing them under his command. Li's forces subsequently became known to foreign observers as the "93rd Division".[2]
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What if the bulk of the Nationalist Chinese forces had followed General Li Mi to Burma? Say the Americans quietly get the French to allow them to evacuate there. Maybe his puppet(?) Shan regime plays host to them, and so do the newly independent Burmese or at least the Thai. With their presence, the VNQDD end up doing better and either the Vietnam War is averted and/or the Nationalist Chinese are involved in the civil war.

This would be an interesting situation because unlike Taiwan, there's no historical Chinese claim to the Shan areas of northern Burma, other than as tributaries. Probably not many Han there. (Edit - Wait maybe I'm wrong and their presence in the Shan states could be diplomatically fractious!) So this wouldn't be much like the ROC on Taiwan at all, but rather like the White Russian model. This could be bad for their aspirations because without a territory under their control that they could claim to be a part of China, they don't even have the Southern Ming exile model to have pretensions of being a legitimate government. Unlike Koxinga, they'd be more like the Black Flag Army, playing bandit. Though paradoxically, if they're able to find themselves a host and patrons (and based on Wikipedia, Burma and Thailand were receptive to some of the KMT generals because they provided training and advisory roles to their newly-formed militaries), they might end up being more active than the ROC- as a bandit army, they could run around SE Asia knocking off local communist movements and thwarting the external ambitions (if any) of the PRC. The KMT would receive a lot of covert CIA (and DGSE?) funding and end up being even more shady than OTL.

Also see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santikhiri

Bonus points if you can rope in Hainan somehow.
 

LeX

I think the main reason this didn't happen, aside from the territorial issues of letting stateless Chinese troops run around SE Asia, is that the US stopped caring about what happened to China between 1948 and 1950. If you could have the KMT lose the civil war less quickly and hold on long enough to have Kim Il Sung attack South Korea (after Stalin gets nukes), that would be a good PoD for a massive US-backed KMT operation across SE Asia. A TL on this would be cool.
 
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Strategos' Risk

Looks like there's a full article about the KMT presence in Burma. Need to read through all of this to figure out what could have happened to the country based on KMT meddling, since the situation was very fractious. But I think the previous model applies- cozying up to a government or two (either the central Burmese gov't, or the Shan state, or some other breakaway ethnic separatist area; and the Thai) for them to be hosted. Of course, there is a bad precedence of Chinese exiles in that country trying to take over.

If they settled somewhere coastal instead of or in addition to Santikhiri village, they basically create Roanapur. Now I really want this timeline to be a thing.
 

Strategos' Risk

In general, scholars agree that the KMT crisis was an event of significant impact on Burma’s history. The KMT intrusion into Burma had the unintended consequence of precipitating the nationalist sentiments into several ethnic insurrections led by the Shan, Wa and other ethnic groups. As noted earlier, the Shans were largely loyal to the newly independent Burmese government throughout the KMT crisis as they were a signatory to the historic Panglong Agreement that granted them secession rights. However, as the Burmese Army was increasingly deployed into Shan State to suppress the KMT presence, the Shans grew increasingly disaffected with Burmese rule. When it came to time for the Shans to deliberate on their status within the Union in 1958, the negative experience of the Army’s repressive actions was an additional argument for greater autonomy. As a result, the Burmese Army led by Ne Win, determined to maintain the integrity of the Union, mounted a coup against the government and abrogated both the 1947 Constitution and the rights of the Shan and Karenni states to secede.[22][23]

According to Mary Callahan (2003), the KMT crisis presented a formidable threat to Burma’s sovereignty and proved to be a catalyst that forced the Burmese Army’s institutionalization, turning it from a band of guerilla fighters into a professional army. Callahan argues that the Burmese Army’s transformation gave it enormous autonomy and authority to define who were citizens and enemies in the ethnically diverse state. This transformation laid the foundation for its eventual consolidation of authority in the 1950s that culminated in its takeover of the government. Robert Taylor (1973) makes a similar argument about the significant consequences KMT intervention had on Burma’s political, economic and ethnic problems. The KMT army’s involvement with the local rebels not only contributed to the Burmese state’s failure to deal with the insurgencies, but also stunted Burmese efforts in national integration and economic construction.
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Interesting that Nationalist Chinese filibustering in Burma led to the latter's militarization and Shan discontent. Sounds like the KMT wouldn't be able to use them as a puppet separatist state haven. But there's plenty of other unhappy ethnicities in the country-

The intrusion of KMT troops into Burma posed serious problems of internal and external security for the newly independent country. Internally, the KMT's overtures to the local insurgents exacerbated the existing civil conflict between the Burmese government and the ethnic and Communist insurgents. Starting in late 1951, the KMT made contacts and formed a loose alliance with the Karen National Defense Organization (KNDO), the largest of the still active indigenous insurgent groups.[13] A combination of factors made the KMT-KNDO alliance useful for both groups. Both were aligned in their disagreement with the neutralist foreign policy of Burma and both looked to the West for aid. While the KMT had modern weapons and other military supplies, the KNDO had contacts, local knowledge, and easier access to food supplies. To make matters worse for the government, some of the American-manufactured weapons also made their way (apparently through KNDO) into the hands of the Burmese communist rebels. The net effect of KMT's intrusion into the Burmese civil conflict was that it distracted the Burmese Army from its counter-insurgency efforts and increased the quantity of weapons available to the anti-government rebels.
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the 1947 Burma Constitution failed to provide for the interests of the diverse minority groups that wanted to retain their autonomy and equal rights within the Union. The federal arrangement between the central government and the peripheral states retained its colonial legacy: Shan and Karenni sawbwas were granted a status similar to that of the rulers of the princely Indian states, with autonomy over administration and law enforcement. On top of that, the Shan and Karenni States also had the extraordinary right of secession after ten years in the Union. In contrast, the Kachin, Chin and Karen remained under central administration, while the Mon and Arakanese did not even have any separate political representation. The contradictions and ambiguities of the Constitution therefore satisfied no one and were the cause for much ethnic dissension.
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Kriegdämmerung

Having worked in Shan State, the remnants of the KMT's occupation/migration into the region are still widely felt (case-in-point, the whole existence of the "Golden Triangle").

Speaking in terms of territory to occupy, you really only have two options:
1) Shan State; or
2) Kachin State, which is located further north, and some of which the ROC still claims

I had imagined a timeline where Panglong had gone through (POD was Bogyoke Aung San surviving and becoming the leader of an independent Burma), with (in the case of Shan) the presence of KMT forces (and the "implied" US support) meaning that the government in Rangoon was more inclined to grant the regions independence. The timeline would've seen the "ROC" exist as a state-within-a-state in the Shan States, opposed to Beijing, but ultimately a non-constructive element in SE Asian politics.
 

Strategos' Risk

Upon looking at a map, the places where the Karen people are and where the KNDO is based is probably too far south for the KMT's liking, they wouldn't be able to make raids into Yunnan with a base that far away. So I suppose the Shan State is the best bet, but maybe after their inevitably failed guerrilla campaign they do relocate further away, probably as guests of the Thai and other regional governments.
 

walmart

Strategos' Risk said:
Yeah, I was imagining the French, Burmese, and Thai - hell even the Malayans?? asking the renegade Nationalists for help.
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Malaysians are unlikely due wanting to avoid more Chinese in country and still being under British Control. Burma wanted to maintain friendly relations with China.
 

LeX

Strategos' Risk said:
I'll have to read through all of this and distill it, but it's amazing that apparently that the CIA attempted to create a "third force" of non-Chiang related KMT troops in SE Asia to do shady spy shit.
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Thisis really fascinating, but not altogether surprising given the terrible working relationship between Stilwell and Chiang Kai-shek.
 
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