The Response... (A Rubio 2016 Timeline)

Republican Candidates Debate in Manchester, New Hampshire
February 6, 2016


"There it is. There it is. The memorized 25-second speech. There it is, everybody."

Senator Marco Rubio fumed at the jab from Chris Christie. He knew why he was using that line in the speech, and quite frankly, Chris Christie certainly had some nerve to compare him to Obama. Christie's hugging of Obama had probably helped Obama win re-election. Before he knew it, he just blurted out an answer.

"I'm repeating myself because I think it is an important point that has to be driven home, Chris," Rubio said. "As a party, we have made the mistake of misunderstanding Obama from day one. We have assumed incompetence, but it was never that. Didn't yo ever wonder why Obama chose to stay with Jeremiah Wright's church after Wright preached 'God damn America' from his pulpit? As a party, we should have understood that incompetence alone could not explain all of Obama's actions, including, but not limited to the premature withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, Operation Fast and Furious, this giveaway to the mad mullahs of Tehran, the failure to secure the border, and that list goes on and on. So yeah, I'm using those words a lot, and I'm sorry if it's annoying, but it is a point that I believe has to be driven home to the American people in this campaign. That's why I've been saying it again and again during this campaign. Haven't you ever repeated a point to drive it home, Chris?"

The governor of New Jersey was taken aback... he had hoped Rubio would be flustered, but instead, Marco had punched back.

"I'd like to think I get my point across the first time," he said.

"Like when you gave Obama that hug?" Rubio shot back, causing Christie to wince. "You managed to kneecap Mitt Romney down the stretch in the last election. The difference was, you didn't intend to do so."

Christie finally recovered.

"What was I supposed to do, not try to help the people of my state after Sandy hit?" he asked.

"I'm not blaming you for helping the people of New Jersey," Rubio said. "I am just pointing out the unintended consequences of that hug. I hate to repeat myself, but I will to emphasize a point I'm trying to make: Experience is not just what you did, but how it worked out."

"Is that another talking point?" Christie shot back, knowing it was a mistake.

"No, just me making sure that an important point gets through to the American people," Rubio said.

The debate went on for another two and a half hours. Then came the analysis.
 
Excerpt From "Winners and Losers from Tonight’s ABC Debate"
Redstate.com
February 6th, 2016 at 10:47 PM


WINNERS

1. Ted Cruz – Cruz was nicked by Carson’s strong opening on the Carsongate controversy, but I think Cruz’s apology on that point came off as sincere and genuine. After that point, Cruz clearly had the strongest night of any of the candidates on stage. Cruz was the first recipient of Martha Raddatz’ pointless and dishonest badgering, and handled it well. Cruz did well with the guns trained away from him once again, as everyone focused on Rubio. Cruz’s answer on his family member who succumbed to heroin addiction was the most poignant moment of the night and really humanized Cruz in a way that no one has yet seen in this campaign. Cruz was one of the two likeable people on stage tonight.

2. Jeb Bush – Surprisingly strong performance from Bush tonight. He absolutely kneecapped Trump in the exchange on eminent domain. He avoided any meaningful verbal flubs. He appeared wonky but likeable. He was in command of the facts. His story about the guy who died (according to the VA) was charming and humorous. I don’t know if it’s because the rest of the candidates don’t consider him a threat, but Jeb was able to really rise above the fray and be one of the only two positive presences on stage tonight.

3. Marco Rubio – The initial exchange with Christie could have been very bad for him, visually. He was accused by Christie of repeating a pat line, but his reponse managed to brush Christie back off the plate. After a dishonest badgering session from Martha Raddatz, Rubio performed very well for the last two hours of the debate, but people turned off the debate when the clock hit 9pm. Rubio’s answer on the life issue was an absolute home run – but who was still watching at 10:15pm?

Note: This is modified from the actual Redstate.com post on this debate.
 
Is the debate the POD, or did Rubio place ahead of Trump in Iowa as well? I feel like that would have helped him more than the debate would have.
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS
Trump (won) 35.3% 100,406
Rubio 18.5% 52,487
Cruz 11.7% 33,189
Bush 11.0% 31,310
Kasich 7.9% 22,454
 
Is the debate the POD, or did Rubio place ahead of Trump in Iowa as well?

The debate. Rubio's response to Christie was different - and he brushed the New Jersey governor back some. The result: He doesn't bleed off support, and he knocks Kasich out of the race.
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS
Trump (won) 35.3% 100,406
Rubio 18.5% 52,487
Cruz 11.7% 33,189
Bush 11.0% 31,310
Kasich 7.9% 22,454

Those results seem off. First, why did Trump get the exact same vote share he got IOTL? He would probably lose a few votes too, especially since I think the few polls raken after Iowa sgowed him more around 31-32%. And Kasich lost too many votes, Jeb! should also lose a few as Rubio is stronger in the establishment lane.

Still, seems about right overall. Interested to see where you take this.
 
Those results seem off. First, why did Trump get the exact same vote share he got IOTL? He would probably lose a few votes too, especially since I think the few polls raken after Iowa sgowed him more around 31-32%. And Kasich lost too many votes, Jeb! should also lose a few as Rubio is stronger in the establishment lane.

Still, seems about right overall. Interested to see where you take this.

I have Rubio finishing a closer second in SC than he did in OTL, probably getting 2/3s of Kasich's votes (Jeb gets he other third). Not enough to catch Trump, but enough that he gets momentum.
 
I have Rubio finishing a closer second in SC than he did in OTL, probably getting 2/3s of Kasich's votes (Jeb gets he other third). Not enough to catch Trump, but enough that he gets momentum.

In my 'no glitch' plans I have Jeb! drop out earlier as he has even less hope and he does worse in NH.(which doesn't happen in your TL though). Remember Rubio's 3-2-1 strategy. And since Nevada was such a big Trump victory, South carolina would be a better place for him to win. Though if we're not going in that direction that's fine.

Looking forward to South Carolina and more. Wonder how Super Tuesday will go? Will hand size still come into the campaign?
 

AlexG

Banned
Those results seem off. First, why did Trump get the exact same vote share he got IOTL? He would probably lose a few votes too, especially since I think the few polls raken after Iowa sgowed him more around 31-32%. And Kasich lost too many votes, Jeb! should also lose a few as Rubio is stronger in the establishment lane.

Still, seems about right overall. Interested to see where you take this.

I agree, Rubio should be at around 23% given those factors. That said, subbed. Eager to read more!
 
I agree, Rubio should be at around 23% given those factors. That said, subbed. Eager to read more!

I wasn't saying Rubio should have more votes. I would give him the same NH percentage. Just I would get the extra votes for him from different places, such as getting more votes from Trump and Bush, and that Kasich would do worse, but not that much worse.
 

ben0628

Banned
I don't know how far you plan on going with this but if you plan on having Rubio as the GOP nominee, he still will need to win his home state of Florida to justify his candidacy and I can't see Rubio winning Florida, even with momentum from placing 2nd in New Hampshire
 
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