AHC: Labor Wins The 2013 Australian Election

2010 to 2013 was a tough term for Labor have only just got over the line with the help of the Independents it require a steady hand on the tiller to guide the ship if state through the shoals. there were two problems for the Captain the Rudd barnacles slowly eating through the hull, the continuous gale of negativity from cyclone Abbott blowing to the rocks.

Gillard had tried fixing the Rudd problem by making him foreign minister thus keeping him out of the country in hindsight a cozy job in Washington, Beijing, London or the UN would have been better.

Tony Abbott is a harder problem to fix without a shark eating him (and they have better taste) while in the surf, the easiest option would be that earlier in the Royal Commission into Child Abuse a good friend of his from his seminary days is name. Tony jumps in loyally defending his mate (similar to chopper-gate) only to have the allegations proven and having his party turn against him.
 
Maybe in Rudd's honeymoon the Liberals panic and speculation emerges of Turnbull returning as leader. It's unlikely but the Liberal campaign collapsing would be a way to get a Labor victory.
 
There will be no Carbon Tax under a government I lead

This statement was the killer. Then when Gillard bought in the Carbon Tax (because that was the only way to get the Green's support) it went downhill fast. However, if she announced that she was bringing in a Carbon Tax in the election campaign she would have lost.
 
Maybe Rudd wins in 2012? I'm not sure but he could then have enough time to fix labor's image. Though, by then he could become even more unpopular and his honeymoon would have totally faded, so Labor would probably lose regardless. And that he lost pretty badly in the first spill. Still, how could he win that spill and could that result in a Labor victory?
 
This statement was the killer. Then when Gillard bought in the Carbon Tax (because that was the only way to get the Green's support) it went downhill fast. However, if she announced that she was bringing in a Carbon Tax in the election campaign she would have lost.

Realistically, if Gillard had decided to play hardball with the Greens and refused to budge on the Carbon Tax issue, what could they have realistically done?

Unlike the Democrats who were centrist, the Greens are of course well the left of the ALP, so the ALP in negotiations does the have the old 'You have nowhere else to go' line (which admittedly didn't work out to well for British Labour's Denis Healey in the 1980's) if they prove to monomaniac about the carbon tax.

While I think at one point the Greens have supported a Liberal minority government at state level (Tasmania), my understanding is that this is not something at least Greens from Tasmania like the idea of repeating. I especially can't see them supporting the a Federal Coalition led by Abbott (I can possibly see it with Turnbull).
 
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