WI: Barack Obama Assassinated During Health Care Debate

[Cryhavoc101]

When Obama first came to the UK my cousin then a Marksman in CO19 in the Met said that the Secret Service who he worked with were openly talking in terms of 'when' he was assassinated not 'if'.

The other thing he learned about the Secret service is that they seriously lacked a sense of humour.

 

[CalBear]

Massive riots in 20 or more major US cities soon spreading to terror attacks on suburbs as police fearing being 'too heavy handed' fail to do their jobs. Forceful response by adhoc civilian militias to drive rioter/looters back into the city cores. (see korean grocers in the '90's LA riots) Army steps in and a number of cities are under martial law dark - dawn curfews for upto three years. (Think north ireland troubles of the '70's) Biden gets crushed at the polls in 2012 by an angry polarized electorate and due to various offenses coming to light going back to his VP time he becomes the first former prez to do jail time along with a former house speaker and a senate majority leader plus a cast of hundreds of minor figures.

Six of your eighteen posts are conspiracy theory/secret civilization craziness, along with a couple fairly nasty bits on suppression of the ANC/majority population in South Africa.

Life's too short for chasing this sort of stuff all over the Board, ya' know.

We divorce you.

 

[idonotlikeusernames]

Assuming Biden is elected in 2012 in this scenario what would his own policies be? More crucially on what points is he likely to differ from Obama?
Further assuming all goes relatively well for the Democrats could Patrick win again after Biden and would it be possible for the Republicans to be in the political wilderness at least until 2024?

 

[mr1940s]

If Obama was killed in late 2009, then the healthcare debate would halt for a short while during the mourning process. The GOP would be disorganised in their response and we shall likely see a Healthcare bill, lovingly called Obama care in his name passed. Who knows, it could even be called the Obama Healthcare Reform Act. Biden would also likely push for continued stimulus, and it is highly likely there would be a high speed rail construction proposal, again using Obama's legacy as a way of getting it done, if the governors agree.
In the 2010 midterms the Democrats will have the 'martyrdom factor' to attract voters, while the GOP will try to keep the Tea Party as far away from them as possible. Some candidates may event refuse them with a 10 foot barge poll. While this will benefit the democrats, who would already have probably kept Ted Kennedy's seat, the Republicans could keep seats like Delaware with more sensible candidates. Charlie Crist could very well win in florida, as could Meek

In all likely hood there will be a reduced democratic majority. The atmosphere in D.C. may be more cordial , probably causing tensions in the GOP ranks.I imagine an unpopular (but necessary) fiscal cliff bill with a possible dream act. the Primaries would be even worse. Romney would probably still run, but Huntsman could very well stay put. The Tea Party could A be smaller due to the backlash and leftwards trend across the nation, or B be larger and angrier, leading to a Goldwater-Rocky like showdown in the primaries. If Romney wins he consul the Tea Party or pull a hail Mary

As for the General, Biden probably wins with a younger, ethnic running mate. The choices include Deval Patrick, or Julian Castro. He would probably win, by a larger margin than Obama, but it depends again on who the nominee is.

 

[sciscisciortino]

Eh there's a reason the Tea Party couldn't even field a presidential candidate in 2012 OTL: the conservative Republicans are too fractured. Not sure who they'll rally behind after an assassination, if anything it gives Romney or whatever moderate that would win the nomination little incentive to listen to them unless they want to further tarnish the brand.

 

[black angel]

Joe Biden gets to play LBJ, Health Care reform is stronger with a Public option, maybe gun control, doubt it though, 2010 tea party thingy never comes off though maybe the blush is off the thing by 2012 and we see the tea party (or whatever) came back up for that election

for VP, some one young, most likely some one black, might be too soon for Cory Booker, but I think by 2009 he was a known up and comer and every one was sure he'd be moving up to governor or Senator soon, Deval Patrick is the natural choice but i Don't know if Patrick really wants it, and he's older then Obama idk if that matters much, David Paterson was around at the time and not totally sunk yet though unelected, and the trouble was under way already

it might be a woman, though likely not Hillary, my guess is she wants State, so unless Joe stands down in 2012 she's not taking VP, I can't think of any young hot shot up and coming ladies

 

[Alstein]

Joe Biden gets to play LBJ, Health Care reform is stronger with a Public option, maybe gun control, doubt it though, 2010 tea party thingy never comes off though maybe the blush is off the thing by 2012 and we see the tea party (or whatever) came back up for that election

for VP, some one young, most likely some one black, might be too soon for Cory Booker, but I think by 2009 he was a known up and comer and every one was sure he'd be moving up to governor or Senator soon, Deval Patrick is the natural choice but i Don't know if Patrick really wants it, and he's older then Obama idk if that matters much, David Paterson was around at the time and not totally sunk yet though unelected, and the trouble was under way already

it might be a woman, though likely not Hillary, my guess is she wants State, so unless Joe stands down in 2012 she's not taking VP, I can't think of any young hot shot up and coming ladies

Kay Hagan? Complete backbencher but could provide electoral value and is fairly young.

 

[black angel]

Kay Hagan? Complete backbencher but could provide electoral value and is fairly young.

too new, NC is a pretty red state so it'd be a risk to the 60 seat majority

Jeanne Shaheen maybe?

maybe Debbie Wasserman Schultz, she might be too political though, Republicans hate her guts, and she's not well known outside politics circles

 

[LHB]

As far as impact goes the shooter's identity and motive will be pretty important in how things shake out. As far as that goes there's some ideas implied in-thread plus one I got PMed that could be interesting to poke at:

1) a disgruntled veteran, odds are its going to be Iraq or Afghanistan

2) some kind of racist fanatic

3) some kind of religious fanatic (think the Obama is the Antichrist stuff)

4) a rogue Secret Service agent

 

[Seleucus]

Joe Biden gets to play LBJ, Health Care reform is stronger with a Public option, maybe gun control, doubt it though, 2010 tea party thingy never comes off though maybe the blush is off the thing by 2012 and we see the tea party (or whatever) came back up for that election

for VP, some one young, most likely some one black, might be too soon for Cory Booker, but I think by 2009 he was a known up and comer and every one was sure he'd be moving up to governor or Senator soon, Deval Patrick is the natural choice but i Don't know if Patrick really wants it, and he's older then Obama idk if that matters much, David Paterson was around at the time and not totally sunk yet though unelected, and the trouble was under way already

it might be a woman, though likely not Hillary, my guess is she wants State, so unless Joe stands down in 2012 she's not taking VP, I can't think of any young hot shot up and coming ladies

I'm thinking Amy Klobuchar.

 

[New Potomac]

As far as impact goes the shooter's identity and motive will be pretty important in how things shake out. As far as that goes there's some ideas implied in-thread plus one I got PMed that could be interesting to poke at:

1) a disgruntled veteran, odds are its going to be Iraq or Afghanistan

2) some kind of racist fanatic

3) some kind of religious fanatic (think the Obama is the Antichrist stuff)

4) a rogue Secret Service agent

Lets not turn this into a spy novel.

In the first few days after a shooting i think it would be assumed that someone related to the Tea Party (or otherwise against Obama) shot him, though who it ultimately ends up being is more important. Either way I think all but the most extreme fringe of the Republican Party would be universal in condemning the assassination and calling for unity, but how close the shooter actually is to the party will determine how large the immediate political fallout is for them.

 

[oshron]

this would probably hand the White House to the Democrats for at least another decade; i'm sure plenty of moderates for either side and independents are on the fence concerning gun control, the Tea Party, and Obama. if he was very publicly assassinated by what is clearly a far-right group opposed to him who flagrantly bring assault rifles INTO A PUBLIC SETTING, anyone and everyone who was unsure or just didn't care enough would decide that hard-right conservatives and their ilk are completely fucking insane and hardly any of them would ever be elected so long as this generation numbers enough to keep them out of office, in much the same way that alot of people in this generation will just be voting against George W. Bush for the rest of their lives. riots, of course, are a given, but that would happen with ANY assassination; the civil conflicts over the assassination of our first black president would make the riots over Rodney King's murder look like an episode of the Teletubbies.

 

[Saladan]

Lets not turn this into a spy novel.

In the first few days after a shooting i think it would be assumed that someone related to the Tea Party (or otherwise against Obama) shot him, though who it ultimately ends up being is more important. Either way I think all but the most extreme fringe of the Republican Party would be universal in condemning the assassination and calling for unity, but how close the shooter actually is to the party will determine how large the immediate political fallout is for them.

whats the worst case scenario that could happen for republicans?

 

[New Potomac]

whats the worst case scenario that could happen for republicans?

Someone who was a part of the tea party, but had no previous history of mental instability or violence. Realistically it's doubtful someone like that would suddenly decide to 'take things into their own hands' and assassinate Obama, but it becomes exponentially more difficult for the Republicans to disassociate themselves from the shooter if for all intents and purposes s/he was a 'sane' person. Without a previous history or extremist violence ("this individual was on the fringe to begin with") or mental issues ("the true culprit is our deplorable mental health system") then the blame shifts to the political climate that was being fostered due to the healthcare debate.

 

[Swiffness]

Either way I think the Barack Obama Health Care Reform Act's (BOHCRA) passage is assured - possibly with a Medicare buy-in or maybe even that damn Public Option the Left was incessantly whining about. (Lieberman shamed into doing the right thing)

Other effects really depend on what kind of person the assassin is, don't it?

A paranoid schizophrenic black woman almost murdered Martin Luther King Jr. in 1958 at a book signing with a letter opener! (if that sounds like a interesting PoD to you, i'm trying to think up a nice dystopian timeline for that lol)

So let's suppose some apolitical non-white crazy person managed to shank him somehow at a rally somewhere. I really think it would be relatively quiet - no riots, no damage to the GOP, maybe a mental health reform bill and probably no more handshake lines for sitting Presidents so far as Secret Service can help it.

If its a gun, firearm sales explode like never before after a national gun tragedy....but the fear would probably be warranted this time, because gun control would have one hell of a mandate. Imagine if it was someone who exploited the gun show loophole, yikes. JFK brought us the Gun Control Act of 1968 in OTL.

Now if this assassin's motives are political, then God Help that TL. Even if there's no riots or violence its just terrible for a democracy.

whats the worst case scenario that could happen for republicans?

A Tea Party birther who absorbed all the Obama hate in the Fox News/Talk Radio/Free Republic echo chamber and decided to stop the "Communist Usurper". The American Right could find its wings clipped substantially. Many Republicans who would otherwise continue to despise Obama IOTL would be looking at horrifying viral videos, watching news footage of his kids sobbing at the (MASSIVE) funeral, and wondering what happened to The Party of Lincoln. (moreso if the wife was there ala JFK....or God forbid, the whole family ala Malcolm X )

Any elected Republican anywhere, who previously said something nasty enough about Obama that it could be construed as contributing to the toxic environment that led to his death ITTL, will be in deep trouble. The Tea Party would live in interesting times.

Progressive wave in 2010, Biden saves the world with Cap n Trade, tougher Dodd-Frank, infrastructure building, prison reform, marijuana reschedulization- okay i'll stop lol.

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

What if we never catch the assassin?

 

[Great Laxit]

What if it wasn't a domestic assassin, but an Al-Qaeda type?

 

[LHB]

What if we never catch the assassin?

In a big public event like this that would be very unlikely, they'd have to get into the building and up close to get the shot in the first place making escape very difficult and unlikely.

 

[Realpolitik]

In a big public event like this that would be very unlikely, they'd have to get into the building and up close to get the shot in the first place making escape very difficult and unlikely.

So it's either a true believer or a nutball...

 

[Ameise]

possibly with a Medicare buy-in or maybe even that damn Public Option the Left was incessantly whining about. (Lieberman shamed into doing the right thing)

I presume you mean 'right' as in 'right-wing'? Is there really a need to explicitly interject your own political bias into your statemets?