Republic of China Election Map

[YLi]

Alternate Republic of China Ideas Thread.

This is just mainly a thread for me to throw ideas around. Below is an electoral map of China by prefecture in 2012. The Communist Party has a coalition proof majority in the National Congress portion of the Legislative Yuan, thanks to their tight control of the interior, but they do not control the Executive Committee, a fixed number of seats to which are assigned based upon geographical area:

The main POD is that Sun Zhongshan lives another 20-25 years. Although he isn't the best at governing per se, he would provide a moderating influence and prevent more extreme elements in the GMD from getting what they want with regards to the White Terror. Although the Communists don't get experience during the first stage of the Chinese Civil War, many of the same personalities, Zhu De and Peng Dehuai end up fighting against the Japanese instead. The Japanese take far more casualties in China, which makes them collapse even faster when they make the mistake of declaring war against the US. Taiwan is given back to China by the US and the Chinese manage to retake Manchuria on their own, preempting a Soviet invasion of the area. The US retakes Korea before the Chinese can invade it.

China moves to full elections sometime before 1950 and develops nuclear weapons by the early 1960s. There are major border clashes between the Chinese and Soviet Union which fall short of WMD exchange, but are quite violent.

Modern day China ITTL is somewhat like China today, except for less economic disparity between the coast and interior (in some ways) and less environmental damage. The population is a bit higher, about 1.5-1.6 billion. Chinese foreign policy is quite aggressive and China and the US butt heads frequently, despite their economic dependence upon one another.

I'm not sure about the status of Korea and Vietnam though. Korea would likely be a sore point since the Chinese wanted it back at as a tributary state. The US might give Korea to the Chinese, or it might not. They have to give Taiwan back, because I'm too lazy to redraw that picture I did.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

It's an interesting concept, but given how Fujian and Guangdong Province are 98-99% Han Chinese, why would they support an ethnic minority movement?

 

[YLi]

Basic Government Structure of alt-China:

Three Yuans:

Executive Yuan:
-Paramount Leader of China is elected directly. Central Military Commission reports to Paramount Leader.

Legislative Yuan: Bicameral.
-National Congress: Representation by population
-Executive Committee: Representation by geography

Premier is appointed by vote of leading party in the National Congress and is thus probably a different person than the Paramount Leader. Leader of the Executive Committee is different person from the Premier as well.

Judicial Yuan: Bicameral

National Court: Judges appointed for life by Paramount Leader. Judges cannot be removed through normal channels.

Constitutional Court:
-Judges to the Constitutional Court elected directly for 10 year term. Judges can vote to impeach Paramount Leader if needed.

Overall:
-Government is frequently deadlocked. However, powerful Paramount Leaders or Premiers frequently end up becoming autocrats by default.

 

[YLi]

It's an interesting concept, but given how Fujian and Guangdong Province are 98-99% Han Chinese, why would they support an ethnic minority movement?

They support greater autonomy for speakers of Minyue, Baiyue and Shanyue dialects. Sky Blue would prefer it if only Mandarin was taught in schools. Although the Pan-Green coalition is strong in Southern cities, economic reasons, as well as a flood of migrants from the interior and up north, give Sky Blue a slim plurality in places like Guangzhou, Taipei and Hong Kong. However, to placate the Green supporters, Yue dialects are taught in schools down South and Tibetan, Mongol and Uighur are taught in the relevant areas.

If Korea is part of China, they'd vote strongly Green as well, for obvious reasons.

 

[thekingsguard]

I pressume they are somewhat more deomocratic and the people ahve more liberty than under the PRC?

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Hmm, I would've thought that without Mao there wouldn't be such a population boom, leaving us with around 800 - 900 million by 2012.

Looking at the map right now, I'm pretty sure I'm either Pan-Green or Sky Blue, depending on the candidates.

BTW who did the Commies field for the Paramount Leader [1] race? Bo Xilai?

[1] If this is (sort of) ROC, wouldn't it be "President" or "Great President"?

Marc A

 

[Strategos' Risk]

No Control Yuan?

 

[YLi]

I pressume they are somewhat more deomocratic and the people ahve more liberty than under the PRC?

They are indeed significantly more democratic than in OTL.

Hmm, I would've thought that without Mao there wouldn't be such a population boom, leaving us with around 800 - 900 million by 2012.

Looking at the map right now, I'm pretty sure I'm either Pan-Green or Sky Blue, depending on the candidates.

BTW who did the Commies field for the Paramount Leader [1] race? Bo Xilai?

[1] If this is (sort of) ROC, wouldn't it be "President" or "Great President"?

Marc A

This version of China has more similarities to the PRC OTL than the RoC. The CPC would have likely fielded someone less obviously corrupt than Bo Xilai, probably a philosophic disciple of Mao Anying (or another one of Mao's sons). Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao ITTL would be Sky Blue, not CPC.

As for the population boom, Mao's still around ITTL. His enormous personal charisma nearly guarantees that he'll spend at least some time in charge of China.

No Control Yuan?

The China Civil Service Administration is under the control of the Executive Yuan. Members of Legislative and Judicial Yuan are responsible for hiring their own staff members and are thus not subject to the Civil Service Administration's jurisdiction.

 

[YLi]

Special Metropolitan Areas in the Republic of China by population:

Summary: These special metropolitan areas, although still part of their respective provinces, are governed by special mayorates which the governments of their component cities must report to.

Zhujiang Metropolitan Area:
-Total Population: 60,500,000
Guangzhou: 16,500,000
Shenzhen: 12,000,000
Hong Kong:8,500,000
Dongguan: 8,500,000
Foshan: 7,500,000
Zhongshan: 5,500,000
Zhuhai: 1,500,000
Aomen: 500,000

Note: Hong Kong was incorporated into the Zhujiang Metropolitan Area after its return to China in 1997.

Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Area (Inner Bohai Rim):
-Total Population: 48,000,000
Beijing: 28,000,000 (Largest city proper in China)
Tianjin: 12,000,000
Tangshan: 8,000,000

Note: Includes Tongzhou and Lanfang prefectures.

Shanghai Metropolitan Area:
-Total Population: 35,500,000
Shanghai: 24,500,000
Suzhou: 11,000,000

Chongqing Metropolitan Area:
Total Population: 29,000,000

 

[YLi]

The Cultural Revolution:

This TL's version of the Cultural Revolution will still have Communists such as Mao Zedong attempt to reform Chinese culture and "throw out the old" or something of that nature. He might even have some support from Sky Blue supporters frustrated with China's pace of modernization.

However Mao's vision of systematically destroying things and using it as a cover to kill his political enemies won't happen. Given the prevalence of Sky Blue leaders such as Zhou Enlai, Jiang Jieshi, Wang Jingwei, etc. any attempt at a cult of personality would be moderated. However, this is a great opportunity for an analogue of the 60s in the United States. Many of the early social changes of the Communists in OTL would end up getting stalled and China would be more socially conservative in the 50s. A lot of angry young people, especially poor young women, would end up in Mao's Red Guard.

Mao, being a pragmatist, would obviously change his rhetoric to suit the reality of the situation. Sky Blue and Pan Green leaders would probably panic at militarized elements of the Red Guard causing problems. Mao may be arrested for incitement or something, but there would likely be a great deal of genuine anger at social conventions and holdovers from the Imperial days that many Chinese people would sorely desire to see done away with.

The 60s would obviously be a time for great change in the RoC. This milder version of the "Cultural Revolution" would end when the Sino-Soviet war begins in the late-60s.

Sino Soviet War: The Sino-Soviet War begins over border clashes between the RoC and USSR a couple of decades after WW2.

The war ends basically status quo antebellum, but the Soviets do not achieve their strategic objectives.

WW2: Butterflies from the POD ITTL could make it so that Hitler never takes over Germany. However, I suspect the German people are still really quite angry about losing WW1, so a 2nd World War in Europe is all but inevitable. The Germans ITTL are far more rational about making war and are able to force the Western Allies and USSR to the negotiating table. WW2 ends basically with status quo, pre-WW1, at least for Germany, which results in a 3 (later 4) way Cold War between the US, German Empire, USSR and China.

In Asia, the Japanese invade China in 1937. However, the going is far tougher. They're barely up to Wuhan by the time they make the stupid mistake of declaring war on the US. Japan is invaded by the US in late 1945.

Sino-American Split: Although China is friendly with the US during WW2, relations begin to strain in the 1950s as the US realizes China will not be its puppet. However, China does do the US a favor in the early 60s, when it curbstomps the German supported Republic of India during an Indian incursion into Tibet. The Sino-Indian War also results in China taking control of Kashmir from India.

This is however, not enough to arrest the deteriorating relations between China and the US. However, the US does like China just enough not to take sides in the Sino-Soviet War.

Relations begin to warm up again after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1986 and the collapse of the German Empire in 1995.

Chinese Nuclear Program: China, under Paramount Leader Zhang Xueliang, recognized the need for a nuclear weapons program as soon as the first nuclear weapons were used in America's war against Germany. The Chinese detonate their first nuclear device in 1959 and their first hydrogen bomb in 1963.

China quickly builds up a stockpile of warheads, at least enough to make the Soviets reconsider the prospect of First Use against the RoC. This is one of the causes of the Sino-Soviet War in the late 1960s.

 

[YLi]

Question to all the Taiwanese on Ah.com: What would Taiwan be like if it was part of this version of China?

Would there still be a strong independence movement, or would it be somewhat muted due to more inclusive of alt-China?

 

[LeX]

I like the idea, but didn't you have that "Sweet Wormwood" TL to finish?

First the bad, then the good:

The political parties' areas of influence are too closely matched with the economic/regional lines. Not every region with an unintelligible dialect, for instance, should be part of the Pan-Green, and not every coastal region should be blue and vice versa with the hinterland. Look at how much states in the US election process change sides.

Mao Zedong was IOTL a diabolical tyrant who got his position of the CCP's head only by manipulating the chaotic mess that ensued after 1927 and then conquered China by sheer luck and underground stratagem. Without being forced into the underground, Mao would've never been able to get into power. At best he'd be one of those radical demagogues who everyone knows and some people idolize about but nobody lets into actual power.

The Guangdong area was the birthplace of the KMT and its people think themselves just as Chinese as the northerners, I don't think they'd be in pan-green, at least not most of them.

After the bad, comes the constructive:

So Sun Zhongshan rules until 1940/1945 or so? What party does he belong to?

How does the war against Japan go? Are there more tanks involved (an immature question, I know) ? How are China's foreign relations? Is the US trying to "encircle" China, or does China have its own sphere of influence/friendship in East Asia? What does the ROC's military force look like?

How much of the population speaks Mandarin? Do they still use Wade-Giles (ugh!)? Simplified or Traditional characters, or both? How are minorities treated? How is traditional Chinese culture seen vs. Westernization, especially in light of the fact that China is a great power in its own right? Instead of Japanese and later Korean pop culture being really dominant, are things more evened out ITTL?

How stable is this China? When will I stop asking buttloads of questions?

 

[LeX]

About Taiwan:

I'd say it really depends on how they are treated. If we go by the trends already seen, they should be pan-Green but not any more so than, say, Yunnan.

 

[YLi]

I like the idea, but didn't you have that "Sweet Wormwood" TL to finish?

First the bad, then the good:

The political parties' areas of influence are too closely matched with the economic/regional lines. Not every region with an unintelligible dialect, for instance, should be part of the Pan-Green, and not every coastal region should be blue and vice versa with the hinterland. Look at how much states in the US election process change sides.

Mao Zedong was IOTL a diabolical tyrant who got his position of the CCP's head only by manipulating the chaotic mess that ensued after 1927 and then conquered China by sheer luck and underground stratagem. Without being forced into the underground, Mao would've never been able to get into power. At best he'd be one of those radical demagogues who everyone knows and some people idolize about but nobody lets into actual power.

The Guangdong area was the birthplace of the KMT and its people think themselves just as Chinese as the northerners, I don't think they'd be in pan-green, at least not most of them.

After the bad, comes the constructive:

So Sun Zhongshan rules until 1940/1945 or so? What party does he belong to?

How does the war against Japan go? Are there more tanks involved (an immature question, I know) ? How are China's foreign relations? Is the US trying to "encircle" China, or does China have its own sphere of influence/friendship in East Asia? What does the ROC's military force look like?

How much of the population speaks Mandarin? Do they still use Wade-Giles (ugh!)? Simplified or Traditional characters, or both? How are minorities treated? How is traditional Chinese culture seen vs. Westernization, especially in light of the fact that China is a great power in its own right? Instead of Japanese and later Korean pop culture being really dominant, are things more evened out ITTL?

How stable is this China? When will I stop asking buttloads of questions?

About Mao: He has charisma and could work a crowd as well as anyone. He'd definitely have his followers, OTL and ITTL. Also, a lot of his less well thought out decisions would be nixed by other politicians anyway, which would change his historical image.

WW2: It goes better for China. Way, way better for China. The Japanese lose Korea and Manchuria to the Chinese by 1945 and Taiwan is given back to China by the US after Japan surrenders. Being more unified and less prone to backbiting and factionalism really helps.

Sun: He doesn't stand for office directly and operates behind the scenes. The first Paramount Leader of China is likely Wang Jingwei.

Party Map: I'll re-post another version later, since the first draft does have its weaknesses. However, the map as it stands is good for noting the general voting tendencies of the Chinese public.

Guangdong and Fujian might see themselves as Chinese but they might not necessarily like Sky Blue simply because Sky Blue's center of power is in Beijing. That being said, the Greens are the party of small government in China and would get votes even if China was totally homogeneous.

Language: Something similar enough to Simplified Chinese and Pinyin are developed such that they are identical in function and form to Simplified Chinese and Pinyin.

Wade Giles is deader than disco.

Culture? Keep reading the narrative. Same for diplomacy.

One thing to note though: The Philippines are a US State? Implausible? Yes. However, the cultural implications are interesting enough that I want to explore it.

 

[Mekajiki]

It's probably better for the Philippines to be split as states. Probably add Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Split up I think they all still have higher population than my home state of Missouri. Together they're too big with too little senate representation.

 

[YLi]

In Reference to Chapter 1, Part 1:

C-League: These are the Universities in alt-RoC that make up China's "Ivy League". Because China's education system is better than the one in OTL, these universities also attract considerable international interest.

Admission to any of these schools is extremely difficult and all of them would rather have seats unfilled than allow for "lower quality" students to attend.

Located in Beijing:

-Beijing University: Arguably the best institution of higher learning in the Eastern Hemisphere, or at least the one which charges the most money for tuition. Receives 3 million applications each year for an entering class of 5,500. Due to increased preference for legacy admits, children of donors and children of politicians, only 2,500 of those seats are considered to be "competitive." The competition is extremely brutal, with only the most exceptional individuals from both China and abroad permitted to study there. If admissions committee feels that they are not enough worthy students, they tend to leave seats in classrooms unfilled rather than allow students who do not meet the school's standards to attend.

BJU has the dubious distinction of being the #1 cause of suicide in China amongst 17-18 year olds, especially around the time it sends out its acceptance letters in mid-April before the start of the Fall semester. These suicides are known as "Acceptance Suicides" or "Letter Suicides." Overbearing parents who see their children as a financial investment, combined with pressure to get admitted and a society which stigmatizes mental illness, results in tragedy for many families.

BJU is located in Western Beijing.

-Qinghua University: This university has a fierce rivalry with Beijing University on account of it being located right across the street (literally) from BJU. Has a secondary campus in Xinzhu City, Taiwan.

Safety school jokes from BJU students aside, Qinghua is an excellent school and many of China's leading thinkers, industrialists and politicians are graduates.

-University of North China: This University is called Renmin (People's) University in OTL and is nicknamed as such ITTL. It is well known for its social sciences and humanities. UoNC is located right to the south across the road from Qinghua and BJU. Renmin University is funded mostly by the CPC's political donors and thus is a bastion of Marxism in the Sky Blue stronghold of Beijing. Renmin University is known for its generous financial aid and many students without the means to attend BJU or Qinghua end up at Renmin.

Located in Tianjin:

-Nankai University: Alma mater of Sky Blue founder Zhou Enlai. Famous for its Business and Economics departments. Also known for its superlative Department of Biological Sciences, which holds one of the few surviving samples of the smallpox virus. Its hospital is also famous and is known for its Shock Trauma Center, which treats severely injured patients.

-Tianjin University: Known for its hard sciences and technology programs, Tianjin University is closely integrated with the economic fabric of the city of Tianjin.

Located in Shanghai:

Shanghai Jiaotong University: Founded by the Imperial Commerce Ministry in the Qing Dynasty, Shanghai Jiaotong University has excellent technical and engineering programs, both of which work closely with the Political Science department. As such, many of China's career civil servants are trained here. The place tends to be a rigid and humorless though, due to the serious, professional attitudes of the student body.

Fudan University: The more humanities based version of Jiaotong, Fudan is also easier going and less straightlaced. It is also filled to the brim with hippies, hipsters, Neo-Red Guards and more "alternative" types looking for the freedom to express themselves. Has an unusually tolerant attitude towards drug use amongst its studentsm despite laws mandating execution for illegal distribution.

Located in Harbin:

Heilongjiang University (Fomerly Harbin Institute of Technology): This university is considered to be one of the foremost technical institutions in the world. A great deal of cutting edge research goes on here. Is home to two fusion reactors and a particle accelerator. Holds its own Ice Festival in the winter, where teams of students compete to think of the most absurdly complex ways to carve blocks of ice.

Has campuses in Pyongyang, Korea and Urumqi, Xinjiang.

Located in Nanjing:

Nanjing University: Nanjing University is renowned for its beautiful campus and hard partying nightlife (and hard partying mornings for that matter, as the Baiju Breakfast is popular there). Its archives are also where Sun Zhongshan's personal correspondence is located. Nanjing also used to be the capital of China, so those interested in studying the early Republican Period of Chinese history should go here.

 

[LeX]

About Mao: He has charisma and could work a crowd as well as anyone. He'd definitely have his followers, OTL and ITTL. Also, a lot of his less well thought out decisions would be nixed by other politicians anyway, which would change his historical image.

Well, it's not completely implausible, so I'll go with it...

Sun: He doesn't stand for office directly and operates behind the scenes. The first Paramount Leader of China is likely Wang Jingwei.

I imagine he (Sun) also has a lot of prestige to work with.

Guangdong and Fujian might see themselves as Chinese but they might not necessarily like Sky Blue simply because Sky Blue's center of power is in Beijing. That being said, the Greens are the party of small government in China and would get votes even if China was totally homogeneous.

So they are simply in favor of a *different*, less centralized China. Interesting.

Wade Giles is deader than disco.

Good to hear. I know the Pinyin "g" is technically a "k", but what's the point if everyone keeps pronouncing it as [kʰ]?


Like the update about the universities. Is Korea part of China since one of the campuses is in Pyongyang?

 

[YLi]

Yes, Korea is a semi-autonomous part of China.

 

[LeX]

Yes, Korea is a semi-autonomous part of China.

Hm, that seems to contradict this:

The US retakes Korea before the Chinese can invade it.

Or did the Americans give Korea to China?

 

[YLi]

I think I might need to retcon the bit where the US takes Korea. China should be the one taking Korea, especially since it's closer and since the ETO doesn't go as well for the US ITTL as it did OTL.

I think a United China has the wherewithal to take Korea in a rapid and convincing fashion given what they could manage in the face of American fire support in the Korean War. The Japanese would have far fewer assets to interdict the Chinese with and given their comparative immobility, can be mopped up at the leisure of the Chinese.

Korea is definitely a part of China though, but Koreans don't pay national income taxes and get to govern themselves for the most part.

The scary part of world affairs is that Germany is a nuclear power. Luckily (unless you're French, British or Eastern European), it's the Kaiserreich (more or less) and not Hitler's Reich. This not scary nowadays, since free and fair elections were implemented beginning in 1990 and the German Chancellor dissolves the Mitteleuorpa bloc in 1995 after a series of independence referenda in Eastern Europe.

India is a psychotic Hindu theocracy ruled by the Caste System solely for the benefit of the Brahmin Caste. For years, it was supported by the Soviet Union and Germany as a counterweight against China but at the moment, it's collapsing under the strain of multiple rebellions, mostly started by Muslims and Sikhs.